By Emily Chow SINGAPORE, Oct 3 (Reuters) – Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell this week to its lowest in over a year on weak demand and ample supply. The average LNG price for November delivery into north-east Asia was $10.60 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from $11.20/mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. This is also its lowest levels since May 2024. "Demand signals across Northeast Asia remain largely muted as countries are well stocked," said Kesher Sumeet, analyst at Energy Aspects, adding this and strengthening global LNG exports are reducing competition for supply with Europe. While extended holidays in China and South Korea are causing demand slowdowns, low prices have stimulated some price sensitive demand in India and Thailand this week, said Martin Senior, Argus head of LNG pricing. PetroVietnam Gas, Indian Oil Corp and Thailand's Gulf Energy are seeking spot cargoes for deliveries through to mid-November in tenders closing on October 3. In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker price benchmark for cargoes delivered in November on an ex-ship basis at $10.099/mmBtu on October 2, a $0.63/mmBtu discount to the November price at the Dutch TTF hub. Argus assessed the price at $10.14/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $10.183/mmBtu. "Continued weakness in Asian LNG demand has moved the JKM-TTF spread to a TTF premium over the last days, which is only being amplified by expectations of a continued additions of LNG volumes in the new year," said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank London. Flows from the U.S. and Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project have increased market supply, Schmit added. For the week ahead, Kpler is bearish for the TTF front-month contract, as Norway and Algeria pipeline supply is set to rise as maintenance ends, while strong wind output and rising temperatures should limit gas use on the demand side, supporting storage injections, said analyst Ronald Pinto. Norway's gas operator Gassco said it expects high gas deliveries to Europe during winter, even with a period of temporarily reduced capacity at the Kollsnes processing plant. For the week ending September 26, hedge funds cut their bets on higher TTF gas prices, reducing their net position by selling more and buying less, reflecting weaker market fundamentals in Europe, said independent gas and LNG analyst Seb Kennedy. In contrast, commercial players including utilities and producers increased their net long position to the highest since February 2024 to reduce risk and due to discretionary trades, he added. Meanwhile, the U.S. front month arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope is still narrowly incentivising U.S. cargoes to deliver to Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst Max Glen-Doepel. In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose to $22,750/day on Friday, while Pacific rates eased to $24,500/day, he added. (Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by Leroy Leo)
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