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By Yuka Obayashi TOKYO (Reuters) -Oil prices dipped on Monday, pressured by worries over a global glut as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions added to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand. Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.4%, at $61.05 a barrel at 0032 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 21 cents, or 0.4%, at $57.33, erasing gains from Friday. Both benchmarks declined more than 2% last week, marking their third consecutive weekly decline, partly due to the International Energy Agency's outlook for a growing supply glut in 2026. "Concerns about oversupply from increased production by oil- producing nations, coupled with fears of an economic slowdown stemming from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, are fuelling selling pressure," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. "While the U.S. is stepping up pressure on buyers of Russian crude, the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin adds uncertainty to the outlook, making it difficult for some investors to adjust their positions," he said. Last week, the head of the World Trade Organization said she had urged the U.S. and China to de-escalate trade tensions, warning that a decoupling by the world's two largest economies could reduce global economic output by 7% over the longer term. The two top oil consumers have recently renewed their trade war, imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them – tit-for-tat moves that could disrupt global freight flows. Meanwhile, Trump and Putin agreed on Thursday to hold another summit on the war in Ukraine, even as Washington pressured India and China to stop buying Russian oil. Following talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House on Friday, Trump implored both Ukraine and Russia to "stop the war immediately," even if it means Ukraine conceding territory. U.S. and European pressure on Asian buyers of Russian energy could restrict India's oil imports from December, leading to cheaper supplies for China, trade sources and analysts said. On the supply side, U.S. energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Sonali Paul)

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By Pratima Desai LONDON (Reuters) -Copper consumption in the United States and India is set to emerge from China's shadow over the next decade as demand growth in the world's largest consumer of the industrial metal slows. Beijing's industrial and infrastructure expansion has helped fuel a rally that has seen copper prices rise to above $10,000 a metric ton from $1,500 25 years ago. But while China is forecast to remain the largest market for copper into the next decade and beyond, analysts expect other demand and price influences to increasingly come into play. Changing regional policies, infrastructure cycles and geopolitical shifts are likely to mean producers, consumers, traders and investors need to adapt to a market that has many different drivers. "China will reduce its rate of copper consumption and stockpiling. We are going back to old-fashioned drivers of copper, which is basically replacement cycles outside China," said Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price. The impact has yet to be seen, but moves by the U.S. and other countries to promote local manufacturing also mean China's export machine and manufacturing activity is expected to slow and weigh on its demand for refined copper, which is estimated at around 15 million tons this year. Meanwhile, the data centres needed to support AI technology and upgrades to power grid infrastructure mean copper demand growth outside China will become the driving force for prices. "China has built its infrastructure, including its power distribution grid. Its activity will drift to a lower level to match (its) requirement," said Price, who forecasts Chinese demand will be 6% lower in 2031 than in 2026. Price predicts China will account for 52% of global consumption of primary copper, at around 27 million tons, in 2031 compared with 57% in 2026. And he expects U.S. copper demand of 2.2 million tons in 2031, up nearly 50% from 2026, while for India, he forecasts copper demand to rise above 1 million tons, representing a rise of more than 30%.      'INCREASING PUSHBACK BY COUNTRIES IN THE WEST' Analysts also expect U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of 50% tariffs on copper pipes and wiring to help encourage local production. For China, the likely outcome is the loss of a major market for its exports of copper pipe. Trade Data Monitor ranks the U.S. as China's fourth biggest market for the product. Last year, it imported 14.4 million tons of copper tubes and pipes directly from China and in the first seven months of this year these totalled some eight million tons, TDM data shows, underlining the potential loss of a major market for Beijing. "China's output of manufactured goods, particularly for export, is likely to slow down to some extent as a function of increasing pushback by countries in the West," said Duncan Hobbs, research director at Concord Resources. Those exports will include copper wire used for power grid infrastructure. In its last network-infrastructure review a decade ago, the U.S. Department of Energy found 70% of U.S. transmission lines were more than 25 years old. Meanwhile, India is expanding its transmission infrastructure to support its goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based capacity by 2030.  And in Asia, excluding China, consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects copper demand to jump 25% to more than 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030.  For electric infrastructure which includes power grids and generation, data centres and telecoms, BMI expects demand to rise 35% to 2.2 million tons.  BMI's forecasts for China are 4% and 11% respectively. MODERNISING INFRASTRUCTURE Grid improvements in the West mainly mean modernising infrastructure. This will be slow and steady and not as copper intensive as building from scratch, as China has been doing. Robert Edwards, principal analyst at metals consultancy CRU has expected China's influence on the copper market to wane for some years. But this did not materialise because of Chinese investment in electric vehicles, renewables and its power grid.  CRU expects China's consumption of global mined and recycled copper consumption to fall to 57% of 31.36 million tons in 2030, from 59% of 27.62 million tons this year. "Demand growth potential in China is limited. You should see more growth in the rest of the world," said Edwards.  (Reporting by Pratima Desai; editing by Veronica Brown and Alexander Smith)

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By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) -The yen weakened on Monday as Sanae Takaichi, an advocate of fiscal and monetary stimulus, appeared all but certain to become Japan's next prime minister after reportedly securing crucial political backing for the top job. The safe-haven currency was also hit by an improvement in risk appetite after trade tensions between Beijing and Washington calmed somewhat, and worries about U.S. regional banks also eased. The risk-sensitive Aussie dollar advanced, although traders will keep a close eye on China's latest reading of gross domestic product at 0200 GMT, Australia's top trading partner. Investors returned to the so-called "Takaichi trade" – bullish equities and bearish the yen – after Kyodo reported that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party will firm up an alliance on Monday. A parliamentary vote to choose a prime minister is set for Tuesday. Takaichi's bid to become Japan's first female premier had been in jeopardy after a sudden break-up with the LDP's coalition partner of 26 years, Komeito, earlier this month. However, in the right-wing JIP, Takaichi has a partner more aligned with her policy views. The U.S. dollar added 0.2% to 150.82 yen as of 0010 GMT, following a drop of as much as 1.1% on Friday, mainly with traders jittery following a clutch of bad loans at U.S. banks and with tariff tensions simmering over Chinese rare earths, essential in chip- and other high-tech supply chains. However, credit worries took a step back by the end of Wall Street trading, with the main indexes all finishing higher. "There's a lot more bark than bite on the credit fears," said Jed Ellerbroek, a portfolio manager at Argent Capital. "Looking through all the big banks' results, credit is very good. Overall, there are very few pockets of weakness." Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump said his proposed, retaliatory 100% tariff on goods from China would be "not sustainable", and confirmed he would still meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks. The Aussie gained 0.3% to $0.6500 on Monday. The euro appreciated 0.1% to $1.1661. "There's an element – to use the Cold War language – of mutually assured destruction when it comes to total rare earth exports curbs and 100% tariff rates, with both the U.S. and Chinese more or less acknowledging that," said Kyle Rodda, a markets analyst at Capital.com. "As a result, the markets are pricing in that things will de-escalate," Rodda added. "However, the markets are likely to remain jittery until such backdowns are explicitly announced." (Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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By David Shepardson WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Aviation Administration said late Sunday that air traffic control staffing issues were delaying travel at airports in Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta and Newark as a U.S. government shutdown hit its 19th day. The FAA said numerous staffing triggers had been received for the evening shift and flights could also be delayed in Las Vegas and Phoenix because of air traffic control absences. FlightAware said more than 5,800 flights had been delayed on Sunday. Weather issues and a Formula 1 race in Austin were also impacting flights. More than 20% of American Airlines and Southwest Airlines flights were delayed Sunday, according to FlightAware. Some 13,000 air traffic controllers and about 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers must work during the government shutdown, but are not being paid. Earlier this month, more than 23,000 flights were delayed over a week and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said 53% of flight delays were due to staffing issues, compared with 5% normally, but staffing issues have largely improved over the last week. Air traffic control has become a flashpoint in the debate over the shutdown with both parties blaming the other. Unions and airlines have urged a quick end to the standoff. The Trump administration is airing videos at some airport security checkpoints blaming Democrats, but many airports have refused to run them. In 2019, during a 35-day shutdown, the number of absences by controllers and TSA officers rose as workers missed paychecks, extending checkpoint wait times at some airports. Authorities were forced to slow air traffic in New York and Washington, which put pressure on lawmakers to quickly end the standoff. The FAA is about 3,500 air traffic controllers short of targeted staffing levels and many had been working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks even before the shutdown. (Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Kim Coghill and Diane Craft)

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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian share markets pushed higher on Monday amid optimism on earnings as reporting season gets into full swing, while a reading on U.S. inflation is expected to be no more than a speed bump on the way to further rate cuts. Data on the Chinese economy are forecast to show growth slowed to 4.8% in the third quarter, while retail sales and industrial output should underline the need for stimulus as policymakers convene to discuss the latest Five-Year Plan. Figures out in the United States on Friday, and despite the government shutdown, are expected to show core inflation held at 3.1% in September, but should not trouble markets given the Federal Reserve has not pushed back against pricing for cuts. "Chair Powell has highlighted the importance of signs of a weakening job market in the Fed's policy considerations," said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. "That confirmed widely held expectations that the FOMC will cut rates again at its next meeting in just over two weeks." Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing this month, and another in December, with rates seen reaching 3.0% by the middle of next year. Japan's Nikkei led Asia higher with a rise of 1.5% encouraged by news the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party have agreed to form a coalition government, setting the stage for the country's first female prime minister. Analysts assume Sanae Takaichi would be pro-stimulus and against further hikes in interest rates, a negative for the yen and bonds but a plus for equities. Shares in South Korea added 0.6%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.1%. For Wall Street, S&P 500 futures were steady, while Nasdaq futures edged up 0.1% on expectations for upbeat earnings this week. HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR EARNINGS Reports include Tesla, Ford, GM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, along with aerospace and defence giant RTX and tech stalwarts IBM and Intel. The UK also has major banks reporting this week while software giant SAP will make a splash in Germany. EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged up 0.4%, while DAX futures firmed 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.1%. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's lofty valuations. The prospect of a series of Fed rate cuts has underpinned bonds, with 10-year yields falling almost 14 basis points last week to currently stand at 4.011%. The slide in yields has pressured the dollar against European and higher-yielding currencies, with the euro at $1.1656 having edged up 0.3% last week despite a surprise credit downgrade of France. The yen had its own problems as investors have scaled back pricing for a Bank of Japan rate hike this month to just 22%, with a move in December put at 50-50. The dollar was up 0.2% at 150.92 yen, while the euro made similar gains to 175.89. The dollar index was flat at 98.543. In commodity markets, gold remained in high demand after jumping almost 6% last week to as far as $4,378.69. The metal was trading at $4,245 an ounce, with $4,200 now acting as chart support. [GOL/] "On a three-year horizon, we believe that there is more room for gold prices to rise, eventually reaching a target of $5,000 an ounce in 2028 due to a structural change in demand for the metal by investors and central banks," said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute. Oil prices continued to be weighed by ample supplies as OPEC+ keeps raising its output. [O/R] Brent was flat at $61.28 a barrel, while U.S. crude held at $57.57 per barrel. (Reporting by Wayne ColeEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Pratima Desai LONDON (Reuters) -Copper consumption in the United States and India is set to emerge from China's shadow over the next decade as demand growth in the world's largest consumer of the industrial metal slows. Beijing's industrial and infrastructure expansion has helped fuel a rally that has seen copper prices rise to above $10,000 a metric ton from $1,500 25 years ago. But while China is forecast to remain the largest market for copper into the next decade and beyond, analysts expect other demand and price influences to increasingly come into play. Changing regional policies, infrastructure cycles and geopolitical shifts are likely to mean producers, consumers, traders and investors need to adapt to a market that has many different drivers. "China will reduce its rate of copper consumption and stockpiling. We are going back to old-fashioned drivers of copper, which is basically replacement cycles outside China," said Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price. The impact has yet to be seen, but moves by the U.S. and other countries to promote local manufacturing also mean China's export machine and manufacturing activity is expected to slow and weigh on its demand for refined copper, which is estimated at around 15 million tons this year. Meanwhile, the data centres needed to support AI technology and upgrades to power grid infrastructure mean copper demand growth outside China will become the driving force for prices. "China has built its infrastructure, including its power distribution grid. Its activity will drift to a lower level to match (its) requirement," said Price, who forecasts Chinese demand will be 6% lower in 2031 than in 2026. Price predicts China will account for 52% of global consumption of primary copper, at around 27 million tons, in 2031 compared with 57% in 2026. And he expects U.S. copper demand of 2.2 million tons in 2031, up nearly 50% from 2026, while for India, he forecasts copper demand to rise above 1 million tons, representing a rise of more than 30%.      'INCREASING PUSHBACK BY COUNTRIES IN THE WEST' Analysts also expect U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of 50% tariffs on copper pipes and wiring to help encourage local production. For China, the likely outcome is the loss of a major market for its exports of copper pipe. Trade Data Monitor ranks the U.S. as China's fourth biggest market for the product. Last year, it imported 14.4 million tons of copper tubes and pipes directly from China and in the first seven months of this year these totalled some eight million tons, TDM data shows, underlining the potential loss of a major market for Beijing. "China's output of manufactured goods, particularly for export, is likely to slow down to some extent as a function of increasing pushback by countries in the West," said Duncan Hobbs, research director at Concord Resources. Those exports will include copper wire used for power grid infrastructure. In its last network-infrastructure review a decade ago, the U.S. Department of Energy found 70% of U.S. transmission lines were more than 25 years old. Meanwhile, India is expanding its transmission infrastructure to support its goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based capacity by 2030.  And in Asia, excluding China, consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects copper demand to jump 25% to more than 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030.  For electric infrastructure which includes power grids and generation, data centres and telecoms, BMI expects demand to rise 35% to 2.2 million tons.  BMI's forecasts for China are 4% and 11% respectively. MODERNISING INFRASTRUCTURE Grid improvements in the West mainly mean modernising infrastructure. This will be slow and steady and not as copper intensive as building from scratch, as China has been doing. Robert Edwards, principal analyst at metals consultancy CRU has expected China's influence on the copper market to wane for some years. But this did not materialise because of Chinese investment in electric vehicles, renewables and its power grid.  CRU expects China's consumption of global mined and recycled copper consumption to fall to 57% of 31.36 million tons in 2030, from 59% of 27.62 million tons this year. "Demand growth potential in China is limited. You should see more growth in the rest of the world," said Edwards.  (Reporting by Pratima Desai; editing by Veronica Brown and Alexander Smith)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)