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By Dominique Vidalon and Emma Rumney PARIS (Reuters) -French spirits maker Pernod Ricard endured steep declines in all but one of its key markets in the first quarter, it said on Thursday, as global tariffs and weak economies further pressure the embattled spirits sector. Pernod, the world's second-biggest Western spirits group behind Diageo, said it still expected sales to improve in the current fiscal year to June 30, 2026, while reporting a slightly worse-than-expected 7.6% fall in first-quarter sales, blaming weak consumer demand and destocking in China and the United States. Pernod said it continued to expect sales trends to improve primarily in the second half of the year, boosted by higher sales of cognac in duty-free stores and an easier base of comparison against a year ago.  It also expects less pronounced declines in the U.S. and China, where sales fell 27% and 16%, respectively, CEO Alexandre Ricard told Reuters in an interview.  "You should see that minus 27% improve, albeit remain negative," he said of China. "And I would say basically almost the same thing for the U.S." Edward Mundy, analyst at Jefferies, said Pernod's first quarter showed an "absence of clear green shoots" yet, which could disappoint some investors.  The company's shares, however, rose almost 1.9% by 0739 GMT. Pernod had already braced the market for a tough first quarter and it kept its guidance for the full year and beyond unchanged.  All spirits companies have suffered as a sales boom seen after the COVID-19 pandemic went into reverse, more recently exacerbated by tariffs on cognac imports in China and on EU goods entering the United States.  Some investors believe a societal shift towards lower alcohol consumption could drive long-term declines, but spirits executives say tough economic conditions rather than fundamental changes in how much people drink are behind current trends. Pernod said it was catching up with rivals in the U.S., while in China, sales around the Mid-Autumn Festival, albeit soft, did indicate a better underlying performance than in the July-September quarter, Chief Financial Officer Helene De Tissot told investors. Pernod also counts on India, its no.2 market, to boost performance later in the year as the impact of July's steep rise in excise tax in the second-most populous state of Maharashtra is digested.  The company has launched a restructuring plan to cut costs. It said in February it hopes to save approximately 1 billion euros in efficiencies between its 2026 and 2029 financial years.  ($1 = 0.8579 euros) (Reporting by Dominique Vidalon; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar and Tomasz Janowski)

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By Stefano Rebaudo and Ankur Banerjee (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar headed for a third straight daily loss against the euro while edging up versus the yen on Thursday, as concerns over U.S.-China tensions and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials continued to weigh on sentiment. Analysts say political headwinds have weighed on the yen but expect support to come from looming Fed rate cuts, the end of U.S. quantitative tightening, and a potential rise in market volatility, which usually supports safe-haven assets. U.S. Treasury yields hovered near multi-week lows, with the benchmark 10-year just above 4%, pressuring the dollar as investors also weighed a prolonged U.S. government shutdown. The Fed’s Beige Book released Thursday offered little support to U.S. rates, pointing to emerging signs of economic weakness, including rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle- and lower-income households. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Wednesday cutting rates is now more important.  The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, was down 0.05% at 98.63, and was on track for a weekly decline of around 0.3%. RARE EARTHS IN FOCUS Investors were scrutinising China’s latest expansion of rare earth export controls, a move sharply criticised by senior U.S. officials on Wednesday, who warned that it could disrupt global supply chains.  "The question for financial markets is whether China's proposed export controls on rare earths are merely part of a bargaining ploy to achieve greater concessions from the U.S.," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. Amid the tit-for-tat action, U.S. President Donald Trump still expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. "An extension, rather than a grand bargain that settles all trade issues, is probably the most realistic second-best outcome compared to the alternative of escalation of retaliation," said Joseph Capurso, head of foreign exchange at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Australian dollar was flat at $0.6511 after data showed unemployment hit a near four-year high in September, adding to the case for interest rate cuts. [AUD/] The Aussie, often considered a proxy for risk appetite, has been volatile this week due to the trade tension as traditional havens gained. China's yuan firmed to a two-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the central bank set its strongest daily midpoint in a year. [CNY/] FRENCH POLITICAL DRAMA IN THE BACKGROUND The euro touched a one-week high and was up 0.10% at $1.1656 as traders braced for yet another episode in the French political drama, with Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu likely to survive two no-confidence votes in parliament. France's political crisis has barely affected euro zone sovereign bond markets as investors see no room for a selloff in French bonds without snap elections. However, by shelving pension reform until after 2027, France’s prime minister has managed to defuse a sharp escalation in the crisis, though at the cost of complicating efforts to rein in public finances, analysts said. The yen briefly firmed to a one-week high of 150.51 per dollar but was up 0.05% at 151.11. Japan's weakened Liberal Democratic Party is set to begin policy talks with the right-leaning Innovation Party on Thursday that could help Sanae Takaichi clinch a prime ministerial vote expected next week. "Regardless of the outcome of the prime ministerial election, it is highly likely that the market will price in some expansionary fiscal policies," said Shinichiro Kadota, head of Japan forex and rates strategy at Barclays Tokyo. "We remain long on the U.S. dollar versus the yen given the risk of a further rally but with eyes on an eventual intervention risk or Bank of Japan hike if the move extends." (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo and Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Mark Heinrich)

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By Elizabeth Howcroft and Marc Jones PARIS/LONDON (Reuters) -There are "significant gaps" in countries' attempts to regulate fast-growing crypto markets, which could potentially harm financial stability, the G20's risk watchdog warned on Thursday. The Financial Stability Board (FSB), a body founded in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, made a series of recommendations on rules for crypto in 2023, to try to bring it in line with the mainstream financial sector. In Thursday's review, it said while some progress had been made, international implementation and coordination of rules remained too "fragmented, inconsistent, and insufficient to address the global nature of crypto-asset markets". Financial stability risks remain "limited at present" it assessed, but they are now rising with the surge in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies having doubled the value of the global crypto market to $4 trillion over the last year. "This is consequential," FSB secretary general John Schindler told Reuters, describing the concerns raised in the review. "These crypto assets can move across borders very easily, much more easily than other financial assets." STABLECOIN RULES LACKING This year's surge in the value of the crypto market has come against a backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance. Schindler said there was a need for close monitoring as crypto becomes increasingly connected with the traditional financial system and stablecoins – cryptocurrencies pegged to the dollar for the most part – become more widely used. One of the key concerns flagged by the FSB's report was that hardly any countries have complete regulatory frameworks for stablecoins yet. While still small in comparison to the bitcoin-dominated cryptocurrency markets, the market for stablecoins has grown by almost three-quarters over the last year to just under $290 billion, a trajectory expected to continue with U.S. rules on them now in place The FSB's report reviewed 29 jurisdictions' implementation of crypto and stablecoin recommendations, including the U.S., EU, Hong Kong and the UK, although the U.S. only participated in the stablecoin aspect. El Salvador, where the world's largest stablecoin, Tether, is based did not take part, however. Schindler said the latest review had still been worthwhile even without El Salvador's input given the FSB was already aware of the risks, but stressed the need for better global cooperation and coordination from all jurisdictions going forward. "We can all put in place frameworks, but if there are people who are not cooperating and helping each other, it's just going to be really challenging because these things just they don't observe borders," he said. RISKS 'LIMITED AT PRESENT' BUT GROWING Global rulemakers were jolted in action by the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and demise of TerraUSD/Luna coins in 2022. There has been major jitters over the last week too, with the largest crypto crash in history on Friday triggering almost $20 billion of liquidations in the market. The FSB's report laid out a list of eight recommendations for jurisdictions to speed up the implementation of comprehensive and globally consistent rules and for better cross-border cooperation and coordination. They follow similar concerns raised by the European Union's securities watchdog in April that even small markets can be the source of bigger problems in the financial system. Even if countries have their own regulatory regimes, they can still be impacted by the activities of crypto companies who are headquartered offshore, Schindler said. (Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft in Paris and Marc Jones in London; Editing by Louise Heavens)

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By Alexander Marrow (Reuters) -Nestle will cut 16,000 jobs, new CEO Philipp Navratil said on Thursday, as the world's largest packaged food company seeks to cut costs and win back investor confidence. The jobs represent 5.8% of Nestle's around 277,000 employees. Navratil said Nestle had raised its cost savings target to 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.77 billion) from 2.5 billion francs by the end of 2027. "The world is changing, and Nestle needs to change faster," Navratil said. UNPRECEDENTED MANAGEMENT TURMOIL Nestle, whose shares leapt by around 8% in early trading, has experienced an unprecedented period of managerial turmoil, with Navratil replacing Laurent Freixe, who was fired in September as chief executive over an undisclosed relationship with a direct report. Chairman Paul Bulcke then stepped down early to make way for former Inditex chief Pablo Isla two weeks later. Navratil said the 12,000 white-collar job cuts over the next two years, in addition to a further 4,000 headcount reduction as part of ongoing initiatives in manufacturing and the supply chain, were part of an efficiency push. 'FUEL TO THE TURNAROUND FIRE' The Swiss maker of KitKat chocolate bars, Nespresso coffee and Maggi seasoning has been fighting to reverse stalling sales growth and arrest a share price slide as it battles U.S. import tariffs, while costs have risen and debt levels have climbed, increasing pressure from investors. Nestle's quarterly results "add fuel to the turnaround fire," Bernstein analysts wrote in a note, naming the headcount reduction as a "significant surprise". A 1.5% rise in real internal growth – a measure of sales volumes – in the third quarter, well above analysts' expectations of a 0.3% rise, may offer Navratil breathing space as he looks to make his mark following his sudden promotion. Navratil said driving RIG-led growth was Nestle's highest priority. "We are fostering a culture that embraces a performance mindset, that does not accept losing market share, and where winning is rewarded," Navratil said. Strategic reviews of Nestle's waters and premium beverages business and low-growth, low-margin vitamins and supplements brands are ongoing, the company said. NESTLE LEAVES 2025 GUIDANCE UNCHANGED The Swiss company maintained its 2025 outlook. It said organic sales growth should improve compared to 2024 and predicted the underlying trading operating profit margin, which excludes certain non-recurrent expenses, at, or above, 16%. For the medium-term, the forecast is at least 17%.  The margin forecasts include the higher U.S. import tariffs on Swiss goods of 39%, that came into effect in August, Nestle said.  The bulk of the 3 billion Swiss francs in cost savings is due to come in 2026-27, Nestle said, with 700 million Swiss francs in savings expected in 2025 as a whole.  Organic sales, which exclude the impact of currency movement and acquisitions, rose 4.3% in the quarter, Nestle said, above analysts' estimates for 3.7% growth. Quarterly sales growth was driven by pricing-led upticks in coffee and confectionery, but Greater China was a drag. CFO Anna Manz said Nestle had been too focused on driving distribution across China and not enough on building consumer demand. "So what you see in China is us correcting that and actually to consolidate our distribution and make it more efficient, while we build this consumer demand." ($1 = 0.7955 Swiss francs) (Reporting by Alexander MarrowEditing by Dave Graham, Lisa Jucca and Barbara Lewis)

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(Reuters) -ANZ on Thursday forecast gold would reach $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by mounting geopolitical, economic, and financial uncertainties alongside expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing. ANZ anticipates gold will peak near $4,600 per ounce by June 2026, followed by a gradual decline in the second half of 2026 as the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle and clarity emerges on U.S. economic growth and trade tariff policies. However, the bank flagged potential downside risks, including a more hawkish Fed stance and unexpected economic growth. "With returns exceeding 60% to $4,200/oz so far this year, the rally still looks strong and shows no signs of losing momentum. We do not see any near-term trigger that could reverse the current uptrend, though a healthy correction is possible," ANZ said. Gold prices scaled another record high at $4,241.77 on Thursday as investors revved up their safe-haven bets after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against China, while expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts added to the metal's allure. [GOL/] UBS, meanwhile, highlighted the potential for declining real interest rates, possibly into negative territory, which it believes could further enhance gold's portfolio appeal. The investment bank sees gold rising towards its upside case of $4,700 per ounce. Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce): Brokerage/Age Annual Price Forecasts Price Targets  Forecast ncy as of   2025 2026   ANZ $3,494 $4,445 $4,400 by October year-end and 16, 2025 $4,600 by June 2026 Bank of $3,352 $4,438 2026 gold October America outlook raised 13, 2025 to $5,000 Societe – – $5000 by the October Generale end of 2026 13, 2025 Standard – $4,488 October Chartered 13, 2025 Goldman $3,400 $4,525 $4,900 by October Sachs  December 2026 7, 2025 Commerzbank* $4,000 – $4,200 by the October end of next 7, 2025 year HSBC $3,355 $3,950 Raises 2027 October average price 3, 2025 forecast to $3,600(from $2,925) and introduces a 2028 forecast of $3,330 Deutsche Bank $3,291 $4,000 $4,300 by Septembe Q4-2026 r 17, 2025 UBS – – Decline in October real rates, 16, 2025 potentially into negative territory could push gold towards $4,700 Citi Research $3,400 $3,250 – Septembe r 29, 2025 *end-of-period forecasts (Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Kate Mayberry)

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