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CHICAGO (Reuters) -United Airlines on Wednesday forecast a higher-than-expected profit in the fourth quarter on the back of robust demand for premium travel and improved pricing power. The Chicago-based airline expects an adjusted profit in the range of $3.00 a share to $3.50 per share in the quarter through December. The midpoint of the forecast is $3.25 per share, compared with analysts' average estimate of $2.86, according to LSEG data. United's third-quarter adjusted profit came in at $2.78 a share, topping analysts' expectations of $2.63 a share. Its earnings report comes barely a week after rival Delta Air Lines forecast record earnings in the December quarter. Both United and Delta have consistently outperformed the broader airline industry since the pandemic by focusing on high-margin revenue streams that tap into the financial strength of premium, corporate, and international travelers. This has led to a growing divide in the earnings of U.S. carriers. While Delta and United are generating most of the industry's profits, more domestic-focused, budget-oriented carriers are grappling with softer demand and greater pricing pressure. United generated $15.2 billion in revenue in the third-quarter, an increase of 2.6% from a year ago. Its premium revenue was up 6%, while loyalty revenue grew 9%. (Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh; Editing by Chris Reese)

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By David Lawder and Andrea Shalal WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Top U.S. officials on Wednesday blasted China's major expansion of rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains, but said Beijing could still change course and avoid steps by Washington to decouple from the world's second-largest economy. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told a press conference that China's new export restrictions were a "global supply-chain power grab" and the U.S. and its allies would not accept the restrictions, but he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stressed that Washington did not want to escalate the conflict, which has roiled financial markets and sent U.S.-China relations into a tailspin. As of Tuesday night, U.S. President Donald Trump was still expecting to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, Bessent said. Greer told reporters that China has not yet implemented the revised regulatory system for rare earths and could still back away, just as the U.S. had not implemented a retaliatory 100% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports. "These are drafted, or in draft, so it's quite real, but our expectation is that they won't implement this and that we'll be able to be back to where we were a week ago where we had the tariff levels we've agreed to and we have the flow of rare earths that we agreed to," Greer said. Neither official would discuss possible outcomes for negotiations aimed at averting the restrictions and U.S. retaliation, which includes a threat by Trump to increase tariffs on Chinese imports by an additional 100%. The two sides have maintained lower tariffs and continued Chinese rare earth flows under a delicate, six-month truce that has been repeatedly extended for 90 days at a time but Bessent suggested a longer extension was possible. "We are currently in a 90-day roll on the tariffs, so is it possible that we could go for a longer roll in return for a delay? Perhaps, but all that's going to be negotiated in the coming weeks before the leaders meet in Korea," he said. TRADE WAR CLOUDS OUTLOOK Their comments came hours after the U.S. and China rolled out tit-for-tat port fees on each other's ships, opening a new front in their bitter trade fight. Escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions overshadowed the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington. In its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF had upgraded its global growth forecast in part due to the superpowers' recent detente. Bessent said U.S. and Chinese officials were meeting on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank gathering to arrange the Trump-Xi meeting, adding that it was the level of trust between the two leaders that had prevented escalation of the tariffs in the past. Greer and Bessent, who have met personally with senior Chinese officials four times in four different European cities in recent months, called China's actions, which threaten to upend global supply chains a "clear repudiation" of prior U.S.-China agreements. UNRELIABLE SUPPLIER? The U.S. does not want to economically decouple from China, but would have to take action if Beijing proved to be an unreliable supplier, Bessent said, noting that Chinese officials recently told U.S. auto companies that a slowdown in shipments of rare earth magnets was "probably something" to do with a holiday. "Not only is China fueling Russia's war (in Ukraine), but China's actions have once again demonstrated the risk of being dependent on them, on rare earths and for that matter, anything," Bessent said, adding, "If China wants to be an unreliable partner to the world, then the world will have to decouple." He said Washington had further measures it could deploy, including export controls, if Beijing proceeded, and was also ready to tariff China over its purchases of Russian oil, as long as European partners joined in. The U.S. has slapped additional tariffs on India over its smaller purchases of Russian oil, but has refrained for now from taking action against China. Members of the Group of Seven advanced economies are expected to discuss the issue during a meeting later on Wednesday on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings. "While there are substantial actions we can take, we'd rather not. I believe China's open to discussion and I am optimistic that this can be de-escalated," Bessent said. The U.S. would also produce photographs supplied by the Ukrainian government that showed Chinese parts were used in Russian drones operating in Ukraine, Bessent said through a spokesperson. Earlier on Wednesday, the Treasury secretary told a CNBC event that China had clearly intended to take action "all along," rejecting Beijing's claim that the actions were a response to U.S. actions, including the new U.S. port fees. He told CNBC that a senior Chinese trade official had threatened as early as August to "unleash chaos on the global system" if the U.S. went ahead with the port fee increases. Bessent named the official as Li Chenggang, China's chief trade negotiator and a subordinate of Vice Premier He Lifeng, who has participated in all the U.S.-China talks. (Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao)

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By Ann Saphir (Reuters) -U.S. economic activity was little changed and employment was largely stable in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, but there were emerging signs of weakness including more layoffs and middle- and lower-income households pulling back on spending.  "In most Districts, more employers reported lowering headcount through layoffs and attrition, with contacts citing weaker demand, elevated economic uncertainty, and, in some cases, increased investment in artificial intelligence technologies," the Fed said in its latest "Beige Book" report, a compendium of survey results, interviews, and other qualitative data from the 12 regional Fed banks.  "Nevertheless, labor supply in the hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing sectors was reportedly strained in several Districts due to recent changes to immigration policies."  Published two weeks ahead of each Fed interest-rate-setting meeting, the report is meant to help central bankers assess the nation's health with more timely, and often more colorful, insight than is available in the official statistics.   With the data vacuum left by the government shutdown, the Beige Book may get more weight than usual in Fed policymaker deliberations, following their decision last month to reduce the policy rate a quarter of a percentage point.  The report landed on the day that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had been scheduled to release a key inflation report, now delayed by the government shutdown until October 24. All other federal economic data, including a monthly retail sales report due Thursday, won't be published until the government is reopened. The Beige Book said that overall national consumption "inched down," particularly on retail goods. Five of the Fed's 12 regions reported lower consumer spending. "Some retailers were cautiously optimistic about the upcoming holiday sales season, but a few expect holiday sales to be 'meh,' and noted that tariffs may soon cause prices to rise, resulting in further softening of demand," said the Atlanta Fed, one of five banks reporting lower consumer spending. "Diners continued to pull back by skipping desserts and/or alcoholic beverages."  Spending patterns diverged along wealth and income lines, with lower- and middle-income households showing heightened sensitivity to inflation and upper-income consumers accounting for most spending gains in some districts. "Community contacts report rising food pantry usage among both low- and middle-income households, growing reliance on 'buy now, pay later' services, and elevated credit card delinquency rates," the St. Louis Fed reported. "A hotel owner in Missouri reported that travel demand had dipped in the past few months, especially among middle-class consumers, and described the current environment as a 'middle-class recession' that is affecting select-service hotels." The latest Beige Book summarizes information collected from the commercial and community contacts of each of the Fed's 12 regional banks through October 6.  Its mention of layoffs lines up with a rise in unemployment insurance claims estimated by Wall Street firms as they track state-by-state reports in the absence of nationwide reporting. Fed policymakers say their recent rate cut, and the likelihood of more reductions to come, stems from downside risks in the labor market. "A South Carolina home builder reported a decline in demand due to increased prices, which they said would result in imminent layoffs," the Richmond Fed said. "One manufacturer said that they had postponed layoffs while waiting for industrial production to recover but could not delay cuts any longer," reported the Cleveland Fed. At the same time, prices continued to rise, driven largely by tariffs. "Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied," the Fed said in the report, which featured the word 'tariff' 64 times, fewer than the previous report. In the Fed's August Beige Book, "tariff" arose 100 times.   Meanwhile there were fresh hints that companies were dealing with a smaller pool of available workers due to the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, as well as uncertainty about or outright softening in demand for their services and products.  "A few contacts in construction and manufacturing noted more difficulty finding workers for their entry-level positions,and they attributed that to reduced immigration," the San Francisco Fed said.   "Outlooks deteriorated with slowing demand, policy uncertainty, and inflation highlighted as the top concerns for businesses," the Dallas Fed reported. Though financial markets are betting heavily on another interest-rate reduction at the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, central bankers appear closely divided and say they are tracking conversations with business and community leaders particularly closely.  "Anecdotes become data," St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said last week. "Sometimes you have moments where you have been hearing a story for the past six or 12 months, but suddenly a new story emerges and you get these inflection points and, you often get those in the conversations before you get them in the data." (Reporting by Ann Saphir, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Nick Zieminski)

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The head of a U.S. airline trade group urged an end to the 15-day government shutdown, citing concerns about rising pressure faced by air traffic controllers who are working without pay. "It's got to stop like now, because every day that goes by, the pressures get higher, the risks get higher," Chris Sununu, the CEO of Airlines for America, a major trade group representing carriers American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, said in an interview. "You're getting closer and closer to those air traffic controllers just feeling financial pressures." (Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Mark Porter)

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