Inkhabar webdesk

By Leika Kihara and Howard Schneider TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. government shutdown that has turned off the official flow of data could begin clouding the view for policymakers in Japan and other countries where insight into the fortunes of the world's biggest economy informs the outlook for their own currencies, trade performance and inflation.  What happens in America, in other words, doesn't stay in America, and global officials say being left data-blind by the shutdown over time could complicate their own policymaking and boost the risk of a mistake at a moment when countries are already adjusting to the Trump administration's efforts to remake global trade. "It's a serious problem. We hope this gets fixed soon," Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing on October 3, as he discussed the hurdles the BOJ faces in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes. One Japanese policymaker went further.  "It's a joke. (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell keeps on saying the Fed's policy is data-dependent but there's no data to depend upon," said the official, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak publicly.  Bank of England policy member Catherine Mann said the questions surrounding U.S. data, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and other issues don’t figure as directly into BOE policy debate as the shifts in trade policy, for example, which directly affect things like prices and the export outlook. But she noted how over time the British pound lost its central status in the world, a process that took decades and was driven by multiple forces she referred to as “termites” that weakened the pound’s role over time. Policy changes that could degrade the dollar's standing or erode the Fed's independence, “are things that we have in our mind but they’re not front and center,” Mann said. But “they are the termites, as opposed to something that is imminent.” Finance and economic leaders from around the world are gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and – in a world beset by an ongoing European land war, tensions and violence in the Middle East, and long-term issues like climate change – much of the meeting's oxygen is likely to be consumed by discussion of U.S. President Donald Trump's plans for the world, his performance in office so far, and, now, the sudden stop of official information about a $30 trillion economy that accounts for roughly one-fourth of world output.  The shutdown could end at any time and the flow of data resume. But the episode is nonetheless symptomatic of a deeper set of issues around U.S. governance and data reliability, including Trump's efforts to gain new influence over the Federal Reserve and his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he was angry over a jobs report that the IMF cited among the "downside risks" facing the world right now. "Intensification of political pressure on policy institutions…could erode hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their mandates," the World Economic Outlook published Tuesday by the IMF stated. "Pressures on technocratic institutions mandated with data collection and dissemination could also erode the public’s and markets’ trust in statistics from official sources, significantly complicating the tasks of central banks and policymakers in making policy decisions…It also raises the likelihood of policy mistakes if political interference leads to compromise in data quality, reliability, and timeliness." 'THE RISK OF ERROR RISES' It is not as if all data has disappeared. The U.S. Federal Reserve, self-funded and not affected by the shutdown, continues to survey its extensive network of contacts about the economy, and private data services provide alternatives that policymakers have learned to knit into serviceable, if imperfect, substitutes at least for short-term analysis. “The month-to-month data flow in the U.S. gets talked about but never is a decisive factor," for other central banks, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker.  But Posen said that the shutdown itself and the tumult around BLS "contributes to the general skepticism about the governance of the U.S. and the reliability of the U.S….And that is important. It eventually feeds into reserve management and currency decisions and feeds into volatility outlooks for the U.S. that were not there before." If the spring IMF and World Bank meetings were all about the uncertainty posed by Trump's plans for higher tariffs and rising protectionism, attention is now fixed on how companies, countries and consumers are coping with the new landscape. Short answer: Not as bad as expected when Trump first took office, at least through September, but still adjusting, according to the IMF's WEO update that found "a significant, though not massive, impact of shifting policies on the economic outlook." After trimming its global growth outlook by a half percentage point in April to 2.8%,  the IMF in its latest projection published on Tuesday clawed most of that back, with global growth now seen at 3.2% for the year. But now, with a major hole in the flow of data covering around a quarter of global economic output, the view will get foggier the longer the shutdown lasts. "Certainly, there is still a great deal of information out there, and policymakers are dedicating substantial effort to gather micro data and anecdotal evidence," about the U.S. said Robert Kahn, director of global macro at Eurasia Group. "But how best to put it together, and importantly how markets will react to such news, are critical unknowns. As time goes on, the risk of error rises as uncertainties compound.” (Reporting by Leika Kihara in Tokyo and Howard Schneider in Washington; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

LONDON (Reuters) -LMVH shares traded nearly 8% higher on the Tradegate platform on Wednesday, a day after the luxury group reported better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, driven by improved demand in China. The world's largest luxury group's shares were trading at 575.2 euros on Tradegate, compared to an official close on Tuesday of 532.8. If the move on the retail-focused platform holds when full trading opens, that would be equivalent to little over 21 billion euros ($24.4 billion) of gains, bringing its total market value to more than 287 billion euros. The rise reported by LVMH on Tuesday represents the first quarter of growth this year for the company, which is seen as a sector bellwether with operations spanning fashion, alcohol and retail. Analysts see the results beat as a good sign for continued recovery, with Bernstein highlighting that sales exceeded expectations across all divisions. JPMorgan analysts anticipate shares in LVMH's competitors will also react positively and believe the overall environment is positive enough to expect a generally better luxury reporting season. Shares in Swiss luxury group Richemont were seen up 4.8% in pre-market indications. ($1 = 0.8602 euros) (Reporting by Alun John and Mateusz Rabiea; Editing by Amanda Cooper)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) -China's Communist Party meets this month to map a five-year vision that prioritises high-tech manufacturing in its quest to upgrade its sprawling industries and project global power as its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies, analysts say. Known as a plenum, the meeting is also likely to pledge strong measures to lift household consumption and curb deep, historical supply-demand imbalances that threaten long-term growth in the world's second-largest economy. The two goals are decades old and pull in opposite directions, a policy challenge that has become acute now with U.S.-China tensions worsening, making it hard for Beijing to pivot to demand-side policies, analysts say. Industrial prowess demands maintaining the status quo of channelling state resources to producers, while boosting consumption requires funds be redirected to households, leaving less for business and government investment. FACTORIES VS CONSUMERS China's growth over the past decade was driven by the pursuit of the first goal at the expense of the second. But this action is now fanning deflationary pressures and creating unsustainable debts. The intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, underlined by U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed threats of triple-digit tariffs last week, has complicated matters for policymakers in Beijing, analysts say. It's a choice to prioritise great power competition over the compelling need to address domestic growth imbalances. China's next five-year plan, the closely watched policy document that the October 20-23 plenum will produce for parliamentary approval in March, will "definitely emphasise, and re-emphasise, support for high-tech research and industrial development," said Chen Bo, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute. "In terms of a country's hard power, manufacturing is still a top priority," Chen said. "When conflict arises, what ultimately matters is manufacturing, not services." A speech by President Xi Jinping published by Communist Party magazine Qiushi in July said the world was going through changes not seen in a century, which made "technological revolution and major-country competition increasingly intertwined." Xi called on the nation to secure the "strategic high ground" in the global tech race. China now leads in industries such as electric vehicles, solar or wind and is leveraging its dominance of rare earths production with export controls before potential trade talks between Trump and Xi later in October. Apart from a few high-end sectors, such as aircraft or advanced semiconductors, its supply chains are largely domestic. With the West aiming to re-industrialise and re-arm after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amid growing tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the stakes are too high for Beijing to even contemplate slowing down on that front. "If you do not develop high-end industries, you will be subject to others in the future," said Guo Tianyong, professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, warning, however, that China needed a better policy balance. CRACKS ARE EMERGING Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect post-plenum statements to deliver a "tech- and supply-driven framework, with incremental focus on social welfare." Consequently, "decisive reflation remains elusive in 2026," they added. Beneath the envy-worthy headline growth, the past five-year cycle has been anything but smooth sailing for the economy – factory gate deflation is becoming entrenched, adding to a property crisis, a municipal debt scare, endemic industrial overcapacity, and record youth unemployment. A generation who studied for highly skilled and well-paid service sector jobs, which a consumption-driven growth model had better chances of creating, faces limited opportunities."If you only rely on external demand and domestic demand is not working, then you will have unemployment problems and also deflation," said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. "If it continues like this for one or two years, it's still okay. But in the long run, it will definitely be a problem." Hu expects China to get serious about stimulating consumption if and when external demand shrinks enough to threaten growth targets. EMPTY PROMISES ON CONSUMPTION? The 2026-2030 blueprint will be China's 15th five-year plan since it adopted Soviet-style quinquennial policy formulation cycles in the 1950s. The 14th promised to "fully leverage the fundamental role of consumption in stimulating economic development." The 13th pledged that "the contribution of consumption to economic growth will continue to grow." Yet Chinese households – their wealth eroded by the property crisis and confidence shattered by strict pandemic curbs – still prefer saving over spending, prompting calls to reform labour markets, taxes, state firms, land rights and welfare. Analysts say China can muddle along with its contradictory goals by tilting industrial support toward tech research and away from capacity expansion, while gradually building on its incipient efforts to strengthen the welfare system. Over the past year, Beijing has rolled out consumer goods subsidies, childcare benefits, and small pension increases. A recent top court ruling that makes social insurance contributions mandatory for both employers and workers lays the groundwork for stronger welfare over the longer term. One policy adviser, asking for anonymity to discuss sensitive topics, said benefits will likely rise further in the next five years, with lower pensions increasing faster than higher ones. But improvements "won't be particularly substantial," even though "everyone recognises the issue of insufficient demand," the adviser said, adding that the small social security budget and tight local government finances limit policy options. After the property sector's downturn, the adviser added, "we are unable to find new demand drivers." Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, expects the five-year plan to "focus more on people's livelihood, including social security, healthcare systems, and possibly more support and protection for low-income groups." But, she says, such language should "absolutely not" be read as a paradigm shift. "In a now very typical Marxist country," Wang said, "it's all about production." (Reporting by Claire Fu in Singapore; Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao in Beijing; Writing by Marius ZahariaEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

LONDON (Reuters) -LMVH shares traded nearly 8% higher on the Tradegate platform on Wednesday, a day after the company reported that sales increased by 1% in the third quarter, its first quarter of growth this year. The world's largest luxury group's shares were trading at 575.2 euros on Tradegate, compared to an official close on Tuesday of 532.8. (Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda Cooper)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)