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By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) – World stocks shuffled back towards all-time highs on Thursday as AI optimism trumped simmering U.S.-China trade tensions again and France's fragile government survived a crucial confidence vote in Europe. The appeal of safe-haven gold showed little sign of abating, however, while the dollar dipped for a third day running and oil prices climbed after U.S. President Donald Trump said India had pledged to stop buying Russian oil. French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's success in a confidence vote was enough to cap a four-day bond market rally that has driven euro zone borrowing costs to their lowest level in months. Lecornu's survival came at a cost though. He had secured crucial backing from the Socialist Party after pledging to suspend President Emmanuel Macron’s contested increase in the retirement age to 64 from 62 by 2030. State Street's head of global macro strategy, Michael Metcalfe, said the situation in France should now stabilise, at least for a while. "At least they have managed to come to some compromise which removes the risk of a snap election," Metcalfe said, adding the market was also now looking at whether the dollar begins to fall back again. "Have we seen a stabilisation of dollar sentiment, or has it (a modest bounce this month) just been a reflection of higher political uncertainty outside the U.S.?" he said, also pointing to recent drama in Japan. AI MEGATREND STRENGTHENING There had been developments on that front overnight too. Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.3% and the yen edged down in Tokyo trading as prospects appeared to brighten for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan's first woman premier, stoking bets on a revival in big spending and loose monetary policy. Chip- and artificial intelligence-related shares also provided a boost, as Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC, whose customers include Nvidia and Apple, reported record earnings as Asian trading had been winding down. Its CEO said conviction in the "AI megatrend" was "strengthening", as it raised its 2025 revenue guidance to mid-30% growth in U.S. dollar terms from around 30%, and maintained its pledge to spend up to $42 billion this year. "AI demand actually continues to be very strong – more strong than we thought three months ago," CEO C.C. Wei told an earnings call. That filtered into U.S. stock index futures, which were pointing to steady gains for Wall Street when trading resumes. [.N] South Korea's tech-dominated KOSPI had jumped 2.5% to its own record peak overnight too after the country's chief presidential policy adviser said he was "optimistic" about finalising a trade deal with the United States. Australian stocks added nearly 1% and also reached a record high after poor jobs data improved the odds in favour of more central bank interest rate cuts. That also dragged down the Aussie dollar. "Nobody forecast the unemployment drop," Societe Generale's Kit Juckes said, adding that the yen now looked "stuck" because there will be "a minority government that wants fiscal stimulus and doesn't want rate hikes." GOLD SURGE CONTINUES Record-high gold added to its more than 60% surge this year as it reached an unprecedented $4,241.77 per ounce. The dollar meanwhile sagged for a third straight session, dropping 0.2% against a basket of major peers. Investors were still eying Fed rate cuts and scrutinising China’s latest rare earth export controls, a move sharply criticised by senior U.S. officials on Wednesday, who warned that it could disrupt global supply chains. "The question for financial markets is whether China's proposed export controls on rare earths are merely part of a bargaining ploy to achieve greater concessions from the U.S.," said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. Amid the tit-for-tat, Trump still expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Trump's trade manoeuvres also lifted oil off five-month lows, with Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $62.13 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures adding 0.7% to trade at $58.69. Trump had said on Wednesday that India would halt oil purchases from its top supplier Russia, and Washington would next try to get China to do the same as it intensifies efforts to pressure Moscow into a peace deal in Ukraine. (Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Joe Bavier)

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday urged member countries to keep trade as an engine of growth for the world economy despite President Donald Trump's steep new tariffs. Georgieva told a news briefing during IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington that countries with large external surpluses like China need to rely more on domestic consumption than exports, while countries with big fiscal deficits, like the United States, need to reduce them. (Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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By Wen-Yee Lee, Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard TAIPEI (Reuters) -TSMC, the world's biggest producer of advanced chips, raised its full-year revenue forecast on Thursday on a bullish outlook for spending on artificial intelligence, after posting a record profit that blew past market estimates. The strong results underscore the continued faith in AI, brushing off at least for now concerns about a bubble. U.S.-listed shares of the Taiwanese chipmaker were up 1.6% in pre-market trade in New York and boosted U.S. semiconductor stocks, including AI leader Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. TSMC said it expects robust artificial intelligence demand to continue, as it raised its 2025 revenue guidance to mid-30% growth in U.S. dollar terms from around 30%, and maintained its forecast for capital spending at up to $42 billion for 2025. "AI demand actually continues to be very strong – more strong than we thought three months ago," CEO C.C. Wei told an earnings call. "We are also happy to see a continuous strong outlook from our customers," he added. "In addition, we directly receive very strong signals from our customers requesting the capacity to support their business. Thus, our conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening." There has been a flurry of mega deals between AI firms and chipmakers, notably by OpenAI with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, in the past month or so to build $1 trillion or more in data center capacity. That portends more demand for chips, which make up a significant portion of the cost of the data centers. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom all rely on TSMC for chip production. The multi-billion dollar investment announcements have raised concerns about the formation of a bubble reminiscent of the dotcom boom and bust, with securities investors on guard for signals that demand is tailing off or that the massive spending is not paying off as anticipated. Recent company announcements indicate demand is resilient. The head of Australia's Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), which sold its Aligned Data Centers business in a deal worth $40 billion, said on Thursday the sale was not a sign the global data center boom had peaked, while ABB's big increase in orders in the United States during the third quarter was due to demand from areas like data centers being built for AI. PROFIT BEATS ESTIMATES Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, whose customers also include iPhone maker Apple, posted a 39.1% jump in third-quarter net profit and said it would be prudent in its business planning going into 2026. Benefiting from surging demand for advanced chips used in AI applications, TSMC said net profit for July-September climbed to T$452.3 billion ($14.76 billion). That was well ahead of a T$417.7 billion LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 20 analysts. SmartEstimates are weighted toward forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate. "We are still very comfortable that the demand on leading-edge semiconductors is real. And as I continue to say that we look at all the demand and look at our capacity expansion, TSMC needs to work very hard to narrow the gap," Wei said, referring to supply and demand. U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies and threats to put tariffs on semiconductors have created uncertainty for the global chip industry and TSMC. Still, Wei said even if the China market was "not available" to the company because of U.S. restrictions, then "I still think the AI's growth will be very dramatic". TSMC announced plans for a $100 billion U.S. investment with Trump at the White House in March, on top of $65 billion pledged for three plants in the state of Arizona, one of which is up and running. On Wednesday, top semiconductor equipment maker ASML, for which TSMC is a major customer, said third-quarter bookings beat market forecasts but that it expected a significant fall in demand from China next year. Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday it expected its biggest quarterly profit in over three years, also thanks to the AI boom. Taiwan-listed shares in TSMC have risen 38% this year, largely brushing off concerns about tariffs, and ahead of the 20% rise for the broader market. ($1 = 30.6450 Taiwan dollars) (Reporting by Wen-Yee Lee, Faith Hung and Ben Blanchard; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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