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By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Optimism over the profit potential of artificial intelligence has helped drive the U.S. stock market to record highs, but investors are looking for weak spots that could emerge in the AI trade and have identified some risks to watch for. AI has been the dominant theme on Wall Street since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, which fueled enthusiasm about the technology's potential. Citigroup strategists estimate that nearly 50% of the S&P 500's overall roughly $57 trillion in market capitalization has “high” or “medium” exposure to AI.  The benchmark index is up about 13% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has climbed 17%.  "So much of what is holding up the markets is either directly or indirectly related to that trade," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group.  Technology and AI-linked stocks have stumbled several times this year. The emergence of a Chinese low-cost AI model called Deepseek at the start of the year sent shockwaves through tech stocks as it raised questions about massive capital spending. Similar questions also arose in August, briefly hitting tech stocks once again. The AI trade recovered from those setbacks and has thrived. "There is a huge opportunity here, but it really just comes down to what's priced in and what's not," said Steve Lowe, chief investment strategist at Thrivent Financial. "There is a lot of growth priced in, and that is one of the concerns, because there are still a number of risks that could trip up people's expectations." While some of the market participants who point to risks remain bullish as the benchmark S&P 500 starts the fourth year of its bull run, investors have identified potential warning signs to watch for as tech and other major U.S. companies begin reporting quarterly results in the days ahead. MASSIVE CAPEX SPENDING IN FOCUS Given massive capital expenditures required to build out infrastructure tied to AI applications, investors said they will watch the rate of spending and return on investments, and the potential for outlays to erode profitability. Capex from major cloud computing and AI platform companies known as "hyperscalers" including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Oracle, is expected to roughly double from 2024 to 2027 to $500 billion annually, according to Barclays strategists. While these companies generate massive amounts of cash, it is important to watch whether they are "spending faster than their growth rates and eating into their free cash flow margins," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Investment Management. Investors are also wary of any surprise softening in the spending, given the importance of tech outlays to support the AI expansion. "The bigger risk is not investing too much; it is not investing enough right now," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. There could be ramifications from potential "circular" deals involving AI companies with overlapping interests, such as Nvidia's recent announcement it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. While the interdependent relationships within the AI ecosystem "do not appear sinister … there is significant systemic risk in such close financial and operational ties," Irene Tunkel, chief U.S. equity strategist at BCA Research, said in a note this week. Tech companies have large cash resources to support AI spending and deal making. But a switch toward more leverage might raise eyebrows. "When you see these big announcements, you want to see it funded through cash flow, not debt or equity raises," said Anastacio Teodoro, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. EYEING RETURN ON INVESTMENTS Barclays strategists are optimistic about the AI theme over the next 12 to 18 months, but they are also wary of signs the energy infrastructure may not be sufficient to support data centers and the AI-related build-out.  "The power issue is probably one of the most important gating factors you should be looking out for," Venu Krishna, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays, said on a recent call with journalists.  Investors are also on guard for signals that demand is tailing off or that the massive investments are not paying off as anticipated. "One potential trigger is that suddenly the needs just look like they are going to be less than was originally anticipated," PNC's Ma said. Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments, said there have yet to be many tangible signs of significant revenue and productivity gains stemming from AI. "If you get to the point where it becomes questionable that all of this investment was really going to pay off … that is going to be something that would be very at risk," Ryan said. "How that happens, I can't necessarily put my finger on it." (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Gianluca Lo Nostro and Mathieu Rosemain (Reuters) -Altice France, the owner telecoms firm SFR, has rejected a bid from three French rivals to buy the operator, Altice CEO Arthur Dreyfuss told staff in a memo on Wednesday, setting back a potential deal that could spur more consolidation in the European telecoms market. Bouygues Telecom, Iliad's Free and Orange said late on Tuesday they had submitted a 17-billion-euro ($19.8 billion) non-binding offer to buy most of Altice France's assets, valuing the company at 21 billion euros. The joint bid spurred hopes for more sector consolidation in Europe on Wednesday, with stocks rising in Paris despite the French government saying it would be vigilant about the deal. "We confirm that we received an indicative offer last night for part of Altice France's assets. This offer has been immediately rejected," said Dreyfuss in a memo to employees seen by Reuters. Bouygues said it had taken note of Altice's decision to reject the offer. Iliad and Orange did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Earlier on Wednesday, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said he was going to be "extremely vigilant" about the deal. "I'm going to be vigilant about two things: the impact on consumer prices and the impact on the quality of service," Lescure said in an interview on French radio RTL. "There's a competition authority; it's independent. It's there to protect consumers, and it will do so," he said. The French government is the largest investor in Orange. BID SPURS EUROPEAN CONSOLIDATION HOPES Shares of Bouygues, which had touched their highest price in more than seven years earlier in the session, slightly pared gains after Altice's rejection to trade 8% higher by 0925 GMT. Orange's shares were up 3%. Other French stocks were also up, with the country's benchmark CAC 40 index gaining over 2%. Italian peer Telecom Italia's shares meanwhile rose 2.4%. SFR is France's second-largest telecoms provider with more than 19 million mobile subscribers and 6.1 million fibre customers as of June. France has had four mobile network operators since 2012: Orange, Bouygues, Iliad’s Free, and SFR. Any deal to reduce the number of carriers to three would have to get approval from European or French regulators. GETTING REGULATORS ON BOARD The European Commission approved a 4-to-3 merger in Spain last year, but requested from MasMovil and Orange a package of remedies to create the 18-billion-euro MasOrange operator. French antitrust agency chief Benoit Coeure said in an interview with daily Les Echos in July that if a deal involving SFR was presented to the regulator, it would examine it without prejudice, but without ignoring difficulties either. J.P. Morgan analysts said in a research note that the 17-billion-euro offer was better than expected. A deal for SFR might also trigger consolidation in other markets, with Iliad deciding for a sale of its operations in Italy, said analyst Giorgio Tavolini from Italian brokerage firm Intermonte. "It would make sense for the group to leave Italy – where it does not generate cash, once spectrum costs are considered, to focus its resources on the French market," he said in a daily report. ($1 = 0.8593 euros) (Reporting by Gianluca Lo Nostro in Gdansk, Elvira Pollina in Milan, Mathieu Rosemain in Paris, additional reporting by Alessandro Parodi in Paris; Editing by Dominique Patton and Milla Nissi-Prussak)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Gianluca Lo Nostro and Mathieu Rosemain (Reuters) -Altice France, the owner telecoms firm SFR, has rejected a bid from three French rivals to buy the operator, Altice CEO Arthur Dreyfuss told staff in a memo on Wednesday, setting back a potential deal that could spur more consolidation in the European telecoms market. Bouygues Telecom, Iliad's Free and Orange said late on Tuesday they had submitted a 17-billion-euro ($19.8 billion) non-binding offer to buy most of Altice France's assets, valuing the company at 21 billion euros. The joint bid spurred hopes for more sector consolidation in Europe on Wednesday, with stocks rising in Paris despite the French government saying it would be vigilant about the deal. "We confirm that we received an indicative offer last night for part of Altice France's assets. This offer has been immediately rejected," said Dreyfuss in a memo to employees seen by Reuters. Bouygues said it had taken note of Altice's decision to reject the offer. Iliad and Orange did not respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Earlier on Wednesday, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said he was going to be "extremely vigilant" about the deal. "I'm going to be vigilant about two things: the impact on consumer prices and the impact on the quality of service," Lescure said in an interview on French radio RTL. "There's a competition authority; it's independent. It's there to protect consumers, and it will do so," he said. The French government is the largest investor in Orange. BID SPURS EUROPEAN CONSOLIDATION HOPES Shares of Bouygues, which had touched their highest price in more than seven years earlier in the session, slightly pared gains after Altice's rejection to trade 8% higher by 0925 GMT. Orange's shares were up 3%. Other French stocks were also up, with the country's benchmark CAC 40 index gaining over 2%. Italian peer Telecom Italia's shares meanwhile rose 2.4%. SFR is France's second-largest telecoms provider with more than 19 million mobile subscribers and 6.1 million fibre customers as of June. France has had four mobile network operators since 2012: Orange, Bouygues, Iliad’s Free, and SFR. Any deal to reduce the number of carriers to three would have to get approval from European or French regulators. GETTING REGULATORS ON BOARD The European Commission approved a 4-to-3 merger in Spain last year, but requested from MasMovil and Orange a package of remedies to create the 18-billion-euro MasOrange operator. French antitrust agency chief Benoit Coeure said in an interview with daily Les Echos in July that if a deal involving SFR was presented to the regulator, it would examine it without prejudice, but without ignoring difficulties either. J.P. Morgan analysts said in a research note that the 17-billion-euro offer was better than expected. A deal for SFR might also trigger consolidation in other markets, with Iliad deciding for a sale of its operations in Italy, said analyst Giorgio Tavolini from Italian brokerage firm Intermonte. "It would make sense for the group to leave Italy – where it does not generate cash, once spectrum costs are considered, to focus its resources on the French market," he said in a daily report. ($1 = 0.8593 euros) (Reporting by Gianluca Lo Nostro in Gdansk, Elvira Pollina in Milan, Mathieu Rosemain in Paris, additional reporting by Alessandro Parodi in Paris; Editing by Dominique Patton and Milla Nissi-Prussak)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Optimism over the profit potential of artificial intelligence has helped drive the U.S. stock market to record highs, but investors are looking for weak spots that could emerge in the AI trade and have identified some risks to watch for. AI has been the dominant theme on Wall Street since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, which fueled enthusiasm about the technology's potential. Citigroup strategists estimate that nearly 50% of the S&P 500's overall roughly $57 trillion in market capitalization has “high” or “medium” exposure to AI.  The benchmark index is up about 13% year-to-date, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has climbed 17%.  "So much of what is holding up the markets is either directly or indirectly related to that trade," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group.  Technology and AI-linked stocks have stumbled several times this year. The emergence of a Chinese low-cost AI model called Deepseek at the start of the year sent shockwaves through tech stocks as it raised questions about massive capital spending. Similar questions also arose in August, briefly hitting tech stocks once again. The AI trade recovered from those setbacks and has thrived. "There is a huge opportunity here, but it really just comes down to what's priced in and what's not," said Steve Lowe, chief investment strategist at Thrivent Financial. "There is a lot of growth priced in, and that is one of the concerns, because there are still a number of risks that could trip up people's expectations." While some of the market participants who point to risks remain bullish as the benchmark S&P 500 starts the fourth year of its bull run, investors have identified potential warning signs to watch for as tech and other major U.S. companies begin reporting quarterly results in the days ahead. MASSIVE CAPEX SPENDING IN FOCUS Given massive capital expenditures required to build out infrastructure tied to AI applications, investors said they will watch the rate of spending and return on investments, and the potential for outlays to erode profitability. Capex from major cloud computing and AI platform companies known as "hyperscalers" including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Oracle, is expected to roughly double from 2024 to 2027 to $500 billion annually, according to Barclays strategists. While these companies generate massive amounts of cash, it is important to watch whether they are "spending faster than their growth rates and eating into their free cash flow margins," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Investment Management. Investors are also wary of any surprise softening in the spending, given the importance of tech outlays to support the AI expansion. "The bigger risk is not investing too much; it is not investing enough right now," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. There could be ramifications from potential "circular" deals involving AI companies with overlapping interests, such as Nvidia's recent announcement it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. While the interdependent relationships within the AI ecosystem "do not appear sinister … there is significant systemic risk in such close financial and operational ties," Irene Tunkel, chief U.S. equity strategist at BCA Research, said in a note this week. Tech companies have large cash resources to support AI spending and deal making. But a switch toward more leverage might raise eyebrows. "When you see these big announcements, you want to see it funded through cash flow, not debt or equity raises," said Anastacio Teodoro, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. EYEING RETURN ON INVESTMENTS Barclays strategists are optimistic about the AI theme over the next 12 to 18 months, but they are also wary of signs the energy infrastructure may not be sufficient to support data centers and the AI-related build-out.  "The power issue is probably one of the most important gating factors you should be looking out for," Venu Krishna, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays, said on a recent call with journalists.  Investors are also on guard for signals that demand is tailing off or that the massive investments are not paying off as anticipated. "One potential trigger is that suddenly the needs just look like they are going to be less than was originally anticipated," PNC's Ma said. Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments, said there have yet to be many tangible signs of significant revenue and productivity gains stemming from AI. "If you get to the point where it becomes questionable that all of this investment was really going to pay off … that is going to be something that would be very at risk," Ryan said. "How that happens, I can't necessarily put my finger on it." (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Aditya Kalra, Nikunj Ohri and Aditi Shah NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Apple is lobbying India's government to modify its income tax law to ensure the company is not taxed for ownership of high-end iPhone machinery it provides to its contract manufacturers, an issue seen as a hurdle to its future expansion, sources say. The push coincides with Apple's growing India presence as it diversifies beyond China. Counterpoint Research says iPhone's share in the Indian market has doubled to 8% since 2022. And while China still accounts for 75% of global iPhone shipments, India's share has quadrupled to 25% since 2022. India is the world's second-largest mobile market. Apple's contract manufacturers Foxconn and Tata have pumped in billions of dollars to open five plants, but millions of those expenses go into acquiring pricey machines for iPhone assembly. Experts say Apple potentially faces billions of dollars in additional taxes if it changes its business practices without convincing New Delhi to change a 1961 law covering foreign ownership of equipment used in India. In China, Apple procures the machines used to make iPhones and gives them to its contract manufacturers, and is not subject to tax even though it still owns them. But that's not possible in India as the Income Tax Act would consider such ownership by Apple as a so-called "business connection", making the U.S. firm's iPhone profits liable for Indian taxes, said a senior government official and two other industry sources. Apple executives have held talks with the Indian officials in recent months to tweak the law as it fears the current legislation could hamper its future growth, said the sources. "Contract manufacturers cannot put up money beyond a point," said the first industry source. "If the legacy law is changed, it will become easy for Apple to expand … India can become more competitive globally." Reuters is first to report Apple's concerns and lobbying efforts on the law. Apple did not respond to Reuters questions, and neither did India's IT and finance ministries who are involved in the discussions. INDIA CAUTIOUSLY REVIEWING APPLE REQUEST Smartphone manufacturing is a key plank of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's agenda, and India's deputy IT minister last year privately said China and Vietnam could race ahead as major smartphone export hubs due to their lower tariffs on phone parts. A senior Indian official said "discussions on taxation rules impacting Apple are ongoing", but New Delhi is cautious as any changes to the law could diminish its sovereign right to tax a foreign company. "It's a tough call," said the official, who highlighted that Apple's increased investments are equally important. "India needs investments. We have to find a solution." Apple has since 2023 opened a handful of directly-owned retail stores in India, though it also sells it products through online and offline distributors. Foxconn and Tata have over the years invested more than $5 billion in setting up Apple manufacturing. SPECIALIZED EQUIPMENT CAN COST BILLIONS One precedent of Indian law often cited by tax experts involves UK-based Formula One. India's Supreme Court held in 2017 that even though F1 did not own a circuit near New Delhi, it was liable to pay tax on profits for the days when it exerted full control during its Grand Prix India event. If Apple were to own machines inside Indian iPhone factories, it would amount to exerting control under current laws, experts said. "If the activities of Apple constitute a business connection, then the global revenue may be used as a basis to compute the income attributable in India, leading to billions in tax exposure," said Riaz Thingna, a partner at Grant Thornton Bharat LLP. Taiwan's Foxconn is Apple's largest contract manufacturer in India, having shipped products worth $7.4 billion this year by August, compared to $7.5 billion in all of 2024, commercially available customs data shows. The income tax law, however, does not bother Apple's South Korean rival Samsung as almost all of its phones are made in its own Indian factories. The India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA), which backs Apple, has in a confidential representation to the government called for changes to the law, saying tax certainty is "paramount for businesses seeking to expand and scale." "Typical CMs (contract manufacturers) are unable or unwilling to invest in such large quantities of specialized equipment … The cost of the equipment can rise to billions of dollars," ICEA said, without naming any company. "In certain cases (it) may also be supplied … free of cost." (Reporting by Aditya Kalra, Nikunj Ohri and Aditi Shah; Additional reporting by Munsif Vengattil; Editing by Kim Coghill)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)