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By Sam Li and Jeslyn Lerh SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's warning of a supply surplus in 2026 and U.S.-China trade tensions that could curtail demand. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.18 a barrel by 0425 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures eased 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $58.54 a barrel. Both contracts closed at five-month lows in the previous trading session. The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday the global oil market could face a surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day, a bigger glut than it earlier forecast, as OPEC+ producers and rivals raise output and demand remains sluggish. "The market is focusing on excess supply amid mixed demand signals. Ebbing geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions are also adding further pressure on prices," said Emril Jamil, a senior oil analyst at LSEG. The trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers, has reignited in the past week, with both countries imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them. That will raise trading costs and disrupt freight flows, likely lowering economic output. "The focus will remain on the recent re-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China and the risks it brings to the global economy," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. The tensions between the world's two largest economies intensified after China last week announced a major expansion of rare earth export controls and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export curbs from November 1. "Beyond U.S.-China trade relations and the progress of talks, the key for oil prices now is the degree of oversupply, reflected in changes in global inventories," said Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures. For a view on U.S. demand, traders will be awaiting weekly inventory data. U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to have risen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 200,000 barrels in the week to October 10. The weekly industry report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday, and U.S. Energy Information Administration data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday. Both reports are delayed by a day due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day holiday on Monday. (Reporting by Sam Li in Beijing and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christian Schmollinger)

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(Reuters) -ChatGPT owner OpenAI is working on new revenue lines, debt partnerships and planning further fundraising as part of a five-year strategy to cover more than $1 trillion in pledged spending, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. (Reporting by Mrinmay Dey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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(Reuters) -U.S. retailers are bracing for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts. The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers' annual sales. In recent weeks, several companies have issued mixed earnings forecasts heading into the season. While Walmart and Macy's raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations. Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys: SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers ers projected the are expected to steepest spend about $1,552 year-over-year drop per person on in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3% spending since the from last year. pandemic, primarily fueled by Gen Z shoppers pulling back amid economic uncertainty. Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during are expected to the November grow at their 2025-January 2026 slowest pace since period are expected the pandemic. to rise between A 2.9% and 3.4%, survey conducted by compared with a Deloitte showed the 4.2% increase last least optimistic year, marking the outlook on economic slowest growth sentiment since the since the 2018-2019 firm started season. tracking it in E-commerce sales 1997.  are projected to increase between 7% The and 9% during the survey also said season, consumers expect to compared with last reduce their year's 8% growth. spending on both In-store sales are retail goods and projected to rise experiences, with between 2% and nearly all 2.2%, compared to a generations and 3.4% growth in income groups 2024. planning to pull back on spending Consumers are this season, except expected to spend for Gen X shoppers. an average of $1,595, down 10% from last year, according to a survey of 4,270 consumers conducted online by an independent research company and fielded between August 27 and September 5. 77% of surveyed consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026, with 56% of respondents being concerned about a potential recession in the next six months. Salesforce The software Online spending is company projects a expected to rise slower growth in 2.1% to $288 online spending billion, lower than between November 1 a 4% increase in and December 31. the same period last year.  Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are Economics Institute expected to rise expects U.S. 3.6% between holiday sales November 1 and growth to moderate December 24 this this year. Still, year, compared to a it will be driven 4.1% growth in the by promotions, as same period last consumers seek the year. best value for Online sales are their money amid expected to jump broader 7.9% this holiday macroeconomic season, compared to uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last year. In-store sales are projected to grow 2.3%. It rose 2.8% in the 2024 holiday season. Adobe Analytics U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to slower pace this $253.4 billion year, Adobe between November 1 Analytics projects, and December 31, as macroeconomic compared with an uncertainty 8.7% rise last continues to year. pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales spending. is expected to rise 6.3% to $14.2 billion. Consumer spending between October 7 and October 8 is expected to be $9 billion, a 6.2% increase compared with last year, as the data firm expects shoppers to kick off some of their early holiday purchases during Amazon's October Big Deal Days. EY-Parthenon Ernst & Young's U.S. holiday retail consulting firm sales in the forecasts a modest November-December rise in holiday 2025 shopping sales this year, season are expected driven mainly by to rise 2.5%, higher prices due compared with a to inflation. While 4.2% increase last higher-income year, EY-Parthenon households are forecast shows. largely unaffected The by price increases, sales growth at spending from 2.5% is expected to middle-and be the slowest lower-income since 2018, when it consumers is grew 2.4%. expected to be constrained due to While slower income total sales are growth and rising expected to cross credit dependency, $1 trillion, gains the firm says. are likely to be driven by higher prices, compared with last year, when volume growth made up about 85% of sales growth. (Reporting by Neil J Kanatt and Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

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KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Malaysia will hold talks with the U.S. secretary of commerce on sectoral tariffs, including on semiconductors, during a meeting of the ASEAN regional bloc next week, Malaysian state media reported on Wednesday, citing the trade minister. President Donald Trump's administration in August imposed a tariff of 19% on Malaysian exports to the United States, though items like semiconductors are currently exempt pending a U.S. national security probe. Trump in August proposed a 100% levy on imported chips, though he said it would not apply to companies that already had a manufacturing footprint in the United States or planned to build one. Malaysia, the world's sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, has warned that any removal of tariff exemptions on its semiconductor exports by Washington could hurt its competitiveness and strain supply networks.   Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz said he will hold discussions with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on tariffs for semiconductors and other sectors, which have yet to be finalised, state news agency Bernama reported.  "I will hold discussions with Lutnick. He will also be attending the ASEAN Leaders Summit next week," Tengku Zafrul said, referring to a meeting of leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations set to run from October 26 to October 28 in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur.           He said Malaysia and the United States were currently negotiating a final tariff agreement, which is expected to be signed by both countries at next week's meeting.  Malaysia's agriculture, industrial, and manufacturing sectors, as well as those involved in trade and investment with the United States, are likely to benefit from the agreement, Tengku Zafrul added.     Several other countries are also expected to sign trade agreements with Washington at the upcoming ASEAN meeting, Tengku Zafrul said, without elaborating.  U.S. tariff rates for export-reliant Southeast Asia have been set at 19% and 20% for most of the region. Laos and Myanmar have been hit with a 40% rate, while Singapore has a 10% tariff.  (Reporting by Danial Azhar; Editing by David Stanway)

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