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By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the U.S. economy growing near trend, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey, though slow job growth, higher unemployment and stickier inflation will mar the outlook. The Trump administration's new import taxes remain a drag on the economy's performance, the survey concluded, with more than 60% of the 40 economists in the poll estimating tariffs would knock up to half a percentage point from economic growth, with both imports and exports falling, and consumer prices rising as a result of the levies. None saw tariffs boosting growth. But the latest version of NABE's quarterly survey, released on Monday as part of the group's annual meeting, upgraded the more pessimistic views about the U.S. outlook offered earlier in the year when concerns about the economic blow from tariffs and the risks of a broader trade war were at their peak. The median projection was for the economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, around most estimates of underlying potential, compared to 1.3% projected in the June survey. Inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was seen ending the year at 3%, down slightly from the 3.1% projected as of June. But it was also seen declining only to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in the June survey, a slower return towards the Fed's 2% target. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was seen rising through next year though less than feared as of June, to 4.5% versus 4.7% in the prior survey. The Fed is seen cutting interest rates, though at a slightly slower pace than anticipated by investors, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year versus the two quarter-point cuts currently priced into contracts tied to the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The survey highlighted one of the ongoing puzzles that Fed officials in particular are trying to understand: GDP growth that has begun surprising to the upside while job growth remains tepid. Economists surveyed by NABE, for example, see job growth averaging just 29,000 per month for the rest of this year, with a "limited, gradual recovery" to around 75,000 next year, lower than the 97,000 forecast as of June. Business investment, driven by the surge of capital towards computing capacity and artificial intelligence, may explain part of the disconnect.  Anticipated investment "improved sharply" the latest survey found, now expected to grow 3.8% this year versus 1.6% as of June, and continue expanding at a 1.7% rate next year versus 0.9% anticipated in June. Housing remains in the doldrums, however, with residential investment now projected to contract 1.6% this year compared to the modest 0.5% growth seen in the June survey, and less than 1% growth seen next year. (Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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(Reuters) -A boom at financial technology firms and growing demand to get to grips with artificial intelligence lifted financial sector job vacancy numbers in London in the third-quarter, Morgan McKinley's London Employment Monitor showed on Monday. Vacancies in the sector rose 9% year-on-year, the recruiter said, although it warned that graduate-level hiring was slowing as more roles are automated. Mark Astbury, director at Morgan McKinley, said a sharp dip in hiring earlier this year caused by uncertainty around potential trade tariffs had been offset by a striking rebound, as employers resumed delayed hiring plans. This year, employers have posted 6,425 fintech roles, already exceeding last year’s total, reflecting the race to commercialise AI platforms, Astbury said. But with the upcoming budget on November 26, many businesses, already hit by the British government's increase in national insurance taxes, are concerned about further tax rises, making them cautious. "In most cases, decisions are being delayed rather than withdrawn," Astbury said. He also noted structural changes that were reshaping the financial sector employment market, with more junior roles going to cities like Belfast and Glasgow and automation reducing administrative roles. London, on the other hand, continues to attract the bulk of senior positions, such as in technology, corporate finance and AI strategy. (Reporting by Phoebe Seers; Editing by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes and Toby Chopra)

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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian stocks dived for cover on Monday after fresh broadsides in the U.S.-China trade war spooked markets with already stretched valuations, though there were signs risk sentiment had steadied with Wall Street futures bouncing. A holiday in Japan and the United States made for choppy early trading and political uncertainty still shrouded Japanese and European assets. While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1, he sounded more conciliatory over the weekend, posting that everything would be fine and the U.S. did not want to "hurt" China. Beijing defended on Sunday its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment as a response to U.S. aggression, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. "We expect the ultimate resolution will be an extension of the current tariff pause past November 10 along with some new but limited concessions from both sides," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in a note. "However, the recent policy moves suggest a wider range of outcomes than was the case ahead of prior U.S.-China talks, with the possibility of greater concessions but also a risk of substantial new export restrictions and higher tariffs, at least temporarily." Many world leaders, including Trump, are due to meet in Egypt on Monday to discuss ceasefire plans for Gaza. Japanese markets had their own problems with the ascension of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to prime minister now in doubt, contributing to a sharp rebound in the yen and a 5% dive in Nikkei futures on Friday. The Nikkei was closed on Monday. Futures were trading up 1.5% at 46,770 but that was still far below the cash close of 48,088. Shares in South Korea slid 1.3%, while Australia lost 0.6%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.6%. Chinese blue chips fell 1.3%, though the rare earth and semiconductor sectors both firmed. Data pointed to some resilience in trade with exports rising 8.3%, almost twice the forecast, and imports up strongly. EARNINGS, FED LOOM LARGE Wall Street was making a comeback with S&P 500 futures rallying 1.3%, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.8%. Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's high valuations. Politics also cast a cloud over Europe as the French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister. Lecornu's last cabinet lasted just 14 hours, and he still faces a tough task to steer a budget for 2026 through a deeply divided parliament. EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged up 0.4%, while DAX futures firmed 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.1%. Currency markets saw some stabilisation after Friday's rush into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar gained 0.5% to 151.98 yen, having slid 1.2% on Friday from a top of 153.29. The euro was steady at $1.1617, while the dollar nudged up 0.2% on the Swiss franc to 0.8010. The dollar index was off 0.1% at 98.921, after losing 0.6% on Friday. In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday but futures slipped 5 ticks as sentiment steadied. Yields had hit multi-week lows in the wake of Trump's tariff threat, while investors had added to wagers on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Futures implied around a 98% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed later this month, and a similar probability of another move in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to offer his guidance when he speaks on the economic outlook at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. A host of other Fed members are appearing this week, along with a who's who of central bankers attending an IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington. In commodity markets, gold remained in high demand as a hedge against fiscal and political uncertainty, rising 0.8% to $4,049 an ounce and pipping last week's record to touch $4,059. [GOL/] Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the U.S. and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. [O/R] Brent bounced 1.6% to $63.74 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 1.6% to $59.88 per barrel. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -China's export growth picked up pace in September, buoyed by manufacturers finding buyers in markets beyond the U.S. as a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remained elusive while investors grappled with the latest salvoes in their trade war. Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy rose an annual 8.3% last month, customs data showed on Monday, beating a 6% increase in a Reuters poll and registering the fastest growth since March. They compared with the 4.4% increase in August. Imports grew 7.4%, their fastest pace since April 2024, against a 1.3% gain a month prior, and a forecast rise of 1.5%. "Chinese firms are actively tapping into new markets with the relative cost advantage of their goods, that's for sure," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. "The United States now only accounts for less than 10% of China's direct exports," he added. "100% tariffs would no doubt add to the pressure China's export sector is under, but I don't think the impact will be as large as before." Trump on Friday unveiled additional levies of 100% on China's U.S.-bound exports, reviving the trade war between the two economic heavyweights, after Beijing put several new rare earth elements under export controls and imposed additional scrutiny on semiconductor users. Analysts said China was likely trying to increase its leverage ahead of expected talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. No other country comes close to matching U.S. consumption power, which once absorbed over $400 billion of Chinese goods each year. But policymakers are banking on factory owners boosting sales to Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset the trade curbs and keep the $19 trillion export-oriented economy on track to hit an official annual growth target of around 5%. The two superpowers appear to be struggling to chart a path beyond their current tariff truce, a 90-day pause from August 11 that ends around November 9. U.S. and Chinese officials met after last month's Madrid summit, widely viewed as a breakthrough for a deal struck on TikTok, to discuss technical issues that predated that meeting. In the meantime, Chinese exporters have made strides in other markets. Exports to regional rival India hit an all-time high in August, according to the most recent customs data, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records. China's trade surplus fell to $90.45 billion in September, from $102.33 billion a month prior, and missed a forecast of $98.96 billion. Pointing to the persistent depressed domestic demand, South Korean exports to China – a leading indicator of the world's second-largest economy's imports – rose just 0.5% last month, recent data out of Seoul showed. A slice of optimism came at the end of September, though, when China's state planner said it will deploy 500 million yuan ($70.15 million) of policy-based financial tools to accelerate investment projects, as part of Beijing's efforts to support the slowing economy. The announcement came too late to influence September data, with manufacturing activity for the month, as well as the most recent retail sales and factory output figures for August lagging as China observers watched to see whether Beijing would announce fresh stimulus or a breakthrough with the Trump administration. (Reporting by Joe CashEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -China's export growth picked up pace in September, buoyed by manufacturers finding buyers in markets beyond the U.S. as a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remained elusive while investors grappled with the latest salvoes in their trade war. Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy rose an annual 8.3% last month, customs data showed on Monday, up from a 4.4% gain in August, and beating a 6.0% increase forecast in a Reuters poll. Imports grew 7.4%, against a 1.3% gain previously, and a forecast rise of 1.5%. No other country comes close to matching U.S. consumption power, which once absorbed over $400 billion of Chinese goods each year. But policymakers are banking on factory owners boosting sales to Asia, Africa and Latin America to offset the trade curbs and keep the $19 trillion export-orientated economy on track to hit an official annual growth target of around 5%. China appears to be increasing its leverage ahead of expected talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Last week, China put several new rare earth elements under export controls and imposed additional scrutiny on semiconductor users, raising the risk of a another supply crunch for U.S. and European users. The two superpowers appear to be struggling to chart a path beyond their current tariff truce, a 90-day pause from August 11 that ends around November 9. U.S. and Chinese officials met after last month's Madrid summit, widely viewed as a breakthrough for a deal struck on TikTok, to discuss technical issues that predated that meeting. In the meantime, Chinese exporters have made strides in other markets. Exports to regional rival India hit an all-time high in August, according to the most recent customs data, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records. China's trade surplus fell to $90.45 billion in September, from $102.33 billion a month prior, and missing a forecast of $98.96 billion. Pointing to the persistent depressed domestic demand, South Korean exports to China – a leading indicator of the world's second-largest economy's imports – rose just 0.5% last month, recent data out of Seoul showed. A slice of optimism came at the end of September, though, when China's state planner said it will deploy 500 million yuan ($70.15 million) of policy-based financial tools to accelerate investment projects, as part of Beijing's efforts to support the slowing economy. The announcement came too late to influence September data, with manufacturing activity for the month, as well as the most recent retail sales and factory output figures for August lagging as China observers watched to see whether Beijing would announce fresh stimulus or a breakthrough with the Trump administration. (Reporting by Joe CashEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -China's car sales accelerated in September, the traditional peak season for the auto market, as dealers and consumers took advantage of trade-in subsidies before more local governments suspended the incentives. Domestic car sales rose 6.6% year-on-year to 2.27 million units, following a 4.9% increase in August, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Monday. Sales of electric vehicles and hybrid cars made up 57.2% of total sales and grew 15.5%, compared to 7.5% in August. This time of year, known as "Golden September" in China, is usually peak season as automakers rush to launch new models and consumers return to showrooms after a lull during the stifling summer months. Local government-subsidised trade-ins spurred car sales in the first half but are showing signs of tapering off due to a funding shortage. Eastern Jiangsu province and the southwestern region of Guangxi were among those that announced last month they would suspend local auto replacement subsidy programmes. More cities such as Wenzhou and Hangzhou in China's eastern Zhejiang province joined the suspension this month. The sales growth also came as dealers took on more inventory last month. Data from the China Automobile Dealer Association showed the dealers had a total of 3.04 million units of cars in their inventory by the end of September, up from 2.6 million a month ago. Cui Dongshu, CPCA secretary-general, last week called for financial policies to support the dealers who have been suffering widespread losses from new car sales while automakers kept offloading inventory onto them despite tepid demand. Top player BYD logged the first monthly fall in car sales last month since February 2024, alongside an additional output cut. BYD's sales in its home market accounted for 14% of China's domestic car sales in September, compared to 18% in the same period in 2024. Smaller domestic rivals including Geely, Leapmotor, Xpeng and Xiaomi outperformed BYD with record high sales last month. Tesla, which exported 19,287 China-made EVs in September, saw its sales in China down 0.9% from the year before, extending a losing streak to the third month. China's car export growth picked up to 20.7% from 20.2% in August, CPCA data showed. (Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Tom Hogue and Kate Mayberry)

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(Reuters) -Jefferies Financial Group said on Sunday its exposure to bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands Group is limited and any potential losses will be "readily absorbable". First Brands, which makes filters, brakes and lighting systems for the automotive industry, filed for bankruptcy protection last month after its lenders began investigating irregularities in the company's financial reporting. Jefferies said its total indirect exposure to First Brands could lead to some financial losses over time, including about $43 million through its Point Bonita fund and about $2 million tied to First Brands' bank loans via its Apex platform. Financial firms exposed to First Brands include Jefferies, which disclosed $715 million in exposure through Leucadia Asset Management, and UBS, which is assessing its exposure on more than $500 million tied to the company. Reuters reported last week that Morgan Stanley's asset management unit had asked investment bank Jefferies to return some money it invested in the latter bank's Point Bonita Capital fund, citing a person familiar with the situation. Shares in Jefferies fell 8% in after-hours trading on Friday. (Reporting by Devika Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Subhranshu Sahu)

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