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(Corrects Brent's settlement at lowest since May 7, not May 5, in paragraph 3) By Erwin Seba HOUSTON (Reuters) -Brent and U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel, or more than 3%, on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose increased tariffs on China cast a shadow over the demand outlook in a market seen as oversupplied. "The sell-off was driven by a shift to risk-off markets following Trump's post threatening tariffs on Chinese goods," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS. Brent crude futures settled at $62.73 a barrel, down $2.49, or 3.82%, the lowest since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $58.90 a barrel down $2.61, or 4.24%, the lowest since early May. "Today is the culmination of a variety of factors of which Trump's threat of a massive increase in tariffs on China is just the latest," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.  Production increases from OPEC, additional output gains in North and South America, and the loss of geopolitical risk after the Gaza ceasefire agreement "are all factors that can be layered on top of Trump's announcement this morning of tariffs on China," Lipow said.  Trump, who was due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in about three weeks in South Korea, complained on social media about what he characterized as China's plans to hold the global economy hostage, after China dramatically expanded its export controls on rare earth elements on Thursday. China dominates the market for such elements, which are essential to tech manufacturing. In addition to threatening to cancel the meeting with Xi, Trump said he may impose a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of Trump's initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the deal, which Israel's government ratified on Friday, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. Numerous vessels have been attacked by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen since 2023, targeting ships they deem linked to Israel in what they described as solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza. The Gaza ceasefire deal means the focus can move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts, said Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ.  A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns. "Markets' expectations for a sharp ramp-up in crude supply have not manifested themselves in substantially lower prices," BMI analysts said in a note on Friday. Investors are also worried that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could dampen the American economy and hurt oil demand in the world's largest crude consumer. (Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Anna Hirtenstein in London; Additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Nia Williams, Andrea Ricci, Edmund Klamann and Toby Chopra)

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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian stocks were set for a rocky start on Monday after fresh broadsides in the U.S. China trade war spooked markets with already stretched valuations, though there were signs risk sentiment had steadied with Wall St futures bouncing. A holiday in Japan and the United States made for choppy early trading, and political uncertainty still shrouded Japanese and European assets. While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1, he sounded more conciliatory over the weekend, posting that everything would be fine and the U.S. didn't want to "hurt" China. Beijing on Sunday defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment as a response to U.S. aggression, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. "We expect the ultimate resolution will be an extension of the current tariff pause past November 10 along with some new but limited concessions from both sides," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in a note. "However, the recent policy moves suggest a wider range of outcomes than was the case ahead of prior U.S.-China talks, with the possibility of greater concessions but also a risk of substantial new export restrictions and higher tariffs, at least temporarily." Many world leaders, including Trump, are due to meeting in Egypt on Monday to discuss ceasefire plans for Gaza. Japanese markets had their own problems with the ascension of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to prime minister now in doubt, contributing to a sharp rebound in the yen and a 5% dive in Nikkei futures on Friday. The Nikkei was closed on Monday, while futures were trading up 1.0% at 46,560 but still far below the cash close of 48,088. EARNINGS, FED LOOM LARGE Wall Street was trying to make a comeback with S&P 500 futures rallying 0.8%, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.1%. Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's high valuations. Politics also cast a cloud over Europe as the French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister. Lecornu's last government lasted just 14 hours, and he still faces a tough task to steer a budget for 2026 through a deeply divided parliament. Currency markets saw some stabilisation after Friday's rush into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar edged up 0.4% to 151.76, having slid 1.2% on Friday from a top of 153.29. The euro was flat at $1.1609, while the dollar nudged up 0.2% on the Swiss franc to 0.8010. The dollar index was a fraction firmer at 98.979, after losing 0.6% on Friday. In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday but futures slipped 4 ticks as sentiment steadied. Yields had hit multi-week lows in the wake of Trump's tariff threat, while investors had added to wagers on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Futures implied around a 98% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed later this month, and a similar probability of another move in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to offer his guidance when he speaks on the economic outlook at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. A host of other Fed members are appearing this week, along with a who's who of central bankers attending an IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.2% to $4,023 an ounce, just off last week's record high of $4,057.79. [GOL/] Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the U.S. and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. [O/R] Brent bounced 1.0% to $63.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 1.0% to $59.45 per barrel. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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By Heekyong Yang SEOUL (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics is expected to post its highest third-quarter profit since 2022, driven by higher memory chip prices supported by server demand as customers rebuild inventories, analysts' estimates showed. The world's biggest maker of memory chips is projected to report an operating profit of 10.1 trillion won ($7.11 billion) for the July-September period, according to LSEG SmartEstimate from 31 analysts, which is weighted toward those who are more consistently accurate. This would be up 10% from a year earlier. Analysts attributed the recovery mainly to better conventional memory chip pricing, which would offset weaker sales volumes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips as Samsung has yet to supply its latest HBM products to Nvidia. HBM chips, critical for artificial intelligence (AI) development, are designed to reduce power consumption and process large datasets by stacking chips vertically. Analysts said demand for memory chips, particularly from hyperscalers and AI-related investments for services such as ChatGPT, have put more workload on general servers, thus boosting conventional memory chip prices. Prices of some DRAM chips, widely used in servers, smartphones and PCs, jumped 171.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to TrendForce data. While Samsung's conventional memory business performed well, analysts said delays in supplying its latest 12-layer HBM3E chips to Nvidia have hurt its profit and share price. Rivals SK Hynix and Micron have gained more from AI-driven demand, while Samsung's exposure to China, where advanced chip sales are restricted by the United States, has constrained its growth. Analysts said market sentiment toward Samsung's shares and chip business, including both memory and contract chip manufacturing, is expected to improve as it secures supply deals with major customers such as OpenAI and Tesla. Samsung shares have risen more than 43% following its announcement of a chip supply deal with Tesla in July. During OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's visit to South Korea earlier this month, Samsung, SK Hynix and OpenAI announced partnerships to supply advanced memory chips to the Stargate project. The AI chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, one of Samsung's major HBM customers, would also benefit Samsung, said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities. Ryu added that Samsung's $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla has lifted expectations that Samsung's struggling contract chip manufacturing business could win more orders from major tech firms if the company delivers the project as planned. While recent AI-driven supply deals signal a positive outlook for Samsung, analysts cautioned that uncertainties remain, including potential U.S. tariffs on chips and China's tightened export controls on rare earth materials used in advanced chips and manufacturing equipment. In September, Micron said it expects to sell out all of its HBM chips for calendar year 2026 in the coming months due to strong demand. Samsung will announce its estimates on revenue and operating profit on Tuesday, with full results due later this month. ($1 = 1,420.1000 won) (Reporting by Heekyong Yang; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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By Claire Fu and Xinghui Kok SINGAPORE (Reuters) -A record number of Chinese restaurants and cafes have flooded Singapore over the past year, using the island as a test bed for global expansion as they escape pallid consumer demand, extreme price competition and super-squeezed profit margins back home. Well-known firms such as Luckin Coffee and bubble tea major Mixue joined hotpot and mala restaurant operators in the post-pandemic surge overseas, hoping to draw on the cachet of the internationally oriented city-state in a trend that industry experts and executives expect to accelerate. "It's really tough to operate in China now, so many brands are choosing to expand abroad," said Josie Zhou, overseas general manager of Hunan cuisine restaurant Nong Geng Ji, which picked Singapore for the first stage of its global push. Persistent price wars are forcing Chinese food and beverage firms to explore new growth models abroad, said Joanna Jia, Singapore manager of bubble tea chain ChaPanda, which opened two franchisee tearooms in the city in July and plans two more. Weak demand has stifled growth in China since the end of COVID-19 lockdown almost three years ago. A long-time property market slump and U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have exacerbated price wars in sectors as varied as food and beverages, e-commerce and autos, intensifying deflationary pressure. In going global, culturally similar Singapore has long acted as a stepping stone for Chinese firms and is a country keen to develop relationships with major economies including China at a time when the top economy, the U.S., is raising trade barriers. About 85 Chinese food and beverage brands were operating around 405 outlets in Singapore as of August, more than double the 32 brands running 184 outlets in June last year, showed data from consultancy Momentum Works. That record growth comes even as local operators including low-cost hawker stalls, mid-sized firms and even Michelin-star restaurants grapple with rising costs and lower consumer spending – just as firms do in China. Officials at Chinese brands said they are confident of their Singapore prospects as they can draw on the lean business models and supply chain management that helped them survive at home where a record 3 million restaurants went bust last year. Tearoom chain Chagee, for instance, can prepare an iced milk tea with customised amounts of ice and sugar in just eight seconds with the help of machines built by in-house developers, said Jonathan Ng, Chagee's director of government and public affairs for the Asia-Pacific region. Such nimble processes and quickly adapting to change in consumer preference by offering a wider variety of drinks at far lower prices helped brands such as Luckin and Mixue blunt growth of Western rivals including Starbucks in China. Starbucks' market share in the world's second-largest economy – home to more than a fifth of its cafes – slumped to 14% last year from 34% in 2019, showed data from researcher Euromonitor International. The U.S. company is looking to sell some of its Chinese operations. "The Singapore market may be tough, but the mainland market is brutal – and they survived," said Maybank China economist Erica Tay. These ready-made models, however, have drawn the ire of local businesses. Singapore Tenants United for Fairness, representing 700 business owners, in a June statement on LinkedIn, said domestic companies struggle to compete. "When an SME from China is often even bigger than our local large enterprises, it should be clear that our small businesses are not on a level playing field with such players. In fact, we are not even in the same stadium," the cooperative said. GATEWAY SINGAPORE Traditionally a bridge between Eastern and Western cultures, Singapore is an ideal gateway for expansion with its 6.1 million predominantly Chinese population, said officials at Chinese firms. It is also a wealthy, fashionable place so having a presence there is for good branding, they said. "If we can build up our brand in Singapore, the brand awareness can go to Malaysia and Vietnam, even Indonesia," said ChaPanda's Jia. Some smaller Chinese names are often backed by deep-pocketed investors allowing them to outbid local rivals for prime locations. Michelin-starred Yong Fu from Shanghai, for example, entered Singapore last year with investment of S$10 million ($7.72 million). The sum covered renovation and provides liquidity for rental, staff and other operational costs such as a wine cellar for about five years, said Ye Cheng Zhong, a Yong Fu director and one of three investors. With Singapore as phase one, he plans to take Yong Fu to London at the end of the year then New York and Paris next year. Investment from large Chinese conglomerates, however, has pushed up rent, particularly in high-traffic areas where the supply of commercial space is tight, said Ethan Hsu, head of retail for real estate firm Knight Frank. Moreover, the influx of Chinese restaurants "dilutes the organic culinary fabric of Singapore," said food critic KF Seetoh. Still, such factors are unlikely to stop Chinese companies' flight from the price wars back home. "The competition here will only intensify," said Nong Geng Ji's Zhou. ($1 = 1.2954 Singapore dollars) (Reporting by Claire Fu and Xinghui Kok; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Christopher Cushing)

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SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's ANZ Group will stop the remaining A$800 million ($520 million) of its share buyback, as newly appointed CEO Nuno Matos moves to preserve more cash and shifts focus to a bold reset of the bank’s growth strategy. ANZ also outlined plans on a further A$800 million worth of gross cost savings which would come from the earlier announced role reductions, team restructuring and exiting non-core businesses like Cashrewards. ANZ—Australia’s fourth-largest bank—has unveiled plans to slash 3,500 jobs at a one-off cost of A$560 million ($373 million) and will fork out A$240 million in penalties after admitting to systemic failures, including “unconscionable” conduct in a government bond deal. The company will also apply a 1.5% discount on its next two dividend reinvestment plans and expects final dividend in line with the half-year dividend. ANZ's shares had underperformed its major rivals but have risen nearly 20% since Matos took over on June 1. The bank's year-to-date gains of 24.1% outrank the share price rises of Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac. ANZ unveiled a new A$2 billion ($1.32 billion) share buyback in May 2024 after the bank's first-half cash earnings largely met analyst estimates. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee and Scott Murdoch; Editing by David Gregorio and Diane Craft)

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(Reuters) -Australia's Treasury Wine Estates said on Monday it is pausing its A$200 million ($130.02 million) share buyback announced in August and will not be retaining its guidance for EBITS growth in fiscal year 2026, owing to the uncertain outlook in its flagship Penfolds business in China as well as its Treasury Americas portfolios. The country's largest standalone winemaker had earlier flagged a shift in alcohol consumption behaviour in China as large-scale banqueting gives way to smaller-scale occasions, resulting in slower depletion of its Penfolds stock in the key market. The firm noted that depletion for its Penfolds business "remains weak relative to plan", with the firm now no longer retaining its guidance for the same for low to mid double-digit EBITS growth in fiscal 2026 and approximately 15% EBITS growth in fiscal 2027. Similarly, given the uncertain outlook around trading conditions and expectations, Treasury Wine said it is prudent to pause the buyback until greater clarity is available. "Several initiatives are now being implemented to mitigate the expected impacts in China in F26, including pursuing opportunities to re-allocate product to select customers in other key markets in a manner that is sustainable and minimises the risk of parallel imports back into the China market," the winemaker added in its statement. ($1 = 1.5382 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by David and Diane Craft)

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(Reuters) -Australian mining software firm RPMGlobal said on Monday that it has struck a deal to be acquired by heavy machinery giant Caterpillar for a total equity value of A$1.12 billion ($728.22 million).  The news comes after Caterpillar had offered to buy the Australian company at A$5 per share in early September. RPM shares had jumped to a high of near A$4.80 after the news but are last trading at A$4.75. RPMGlobal, the last remaining mining software company listed on the ASX, is set to vanish from public markets following its acquisition by Caterpillar. The move comes after rival Micromine was snapped up by the Weir Group in an A$1.3 billion deal, marking the end of an era for Australia's homegrown mining tech players. The deal would be closely scrutinized by the Foreign Investment Review Board and Australia's competition regulator and would also require approvals from RPMGlobal's shareholders. ($1 = 1.5380 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru; editing by Diane Craft)

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(Reuters) -Australian mining software firm RPMGlobal said on Monday that it has struck a deal to be acquired by heavy machinery giant Caterpillar for a total equity value of A$1.12 billion  ($728.22 million).  ($1 = 1.5380 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru; editing by Diane Craft)

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