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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian stocks got off to a rocky start on Monday after fresh broadsides in the U.S.-China trade war spooked markets with already stretched valuations, though there were signs risk sentiment had steadied with Wall Street futures bouncing. A holiday in Japan and the United States made for choppy early trading and political uncertainty still shrouded Japanese and European assets. While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1, he sounded more conciliatory over the weekend, posting that everything would be fine and the U.S. didn't want to "hurt" China. Beijing on Sunday defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment as a response to U.S. aggression, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. "We expect the ultimate resolution will be an extension of the current tariff pause past November 10 along with some new but limited concessions from both sides," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in a note. "However, the recent policy moves suggest a wider range of outcomes than was the case ahead of prior U.S.-China talks, with the possibility of greater concessions but also a risk of substantial new export restrictions and higher tariffs, at least temporarily." Many world leaders, including Trump, are due to meeting in Egypt on Monday to discuss ceasefire plans for Gaza. Japanese markets had their own problems with the ascension of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to prime minister now in doubt, contributing to a sharp rebound in the yen and a 5% dive in Nikkei futures on Friday. The Nikkei was closed on Monday. Futures were trading up 1.3% at 46,690 but that was still far below the cash close of 48,088. Shares in South Korea slid 2.1%, while Australia lost 0.5%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.6%. EARNINGS, FED LOOM LARGE Wall Street was trying to make a comeback with S&P 500 futures rallying 1.1%, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.6%. Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's high valuations. Politics also cast a cloud over Europe as the French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister. Lecornu's last government lasted just 14 hours, and he still faces a tough task to steer a budget for 2026 through a deeply divided parliament. EUROSTOXX 50 futures edged up 0.2%, while DAX futures firmed 0.4% and FTSE futures were flat. Currency markets saw some stabilisation after Friday's rush into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar gained 0.5% to 151.98 yen, having slid 1.2% on Friday from a top of 153.29. The euro was flat at $1.1607, while the dollar nudged up 0.2% on the Swiss franc to 0.8010. The dollar index was steady at 99.015, after losing 0.6% on Friday. In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday but futures slipped 5 ticks as sentiment steadied. Yields had hit multi-week lows in the wake of Trump's tariff threat, while investors had added to wagers on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Futures implied around a 98% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed later this month, and a similar probability of another move in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to offer his guidance when he speaks on the economic outlook at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. A host of other Fed members are appearing this week, along with a who's who of central bankers attending an IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington. In commodity markets, gold remained in high demand as a hedge against fiscal and political uncertainty, rising 0.5% to $4,037 an ounce and pipping last week's record to touch $4,059. [GOL/] Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the U.S. and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. [O/R] Brent bounced 1.0% to $63.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 1.0% to $59.45 per barrel. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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HONG KONG/SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China stocks are set to come under pressure on Monday as the renewed trade war between Washington and Beijing hits risk appetite and spurs profit-taking in a share market hovering near its highest level in a decade. However, investors and analysts expect the sell-off to be less severe than the panic-selling seen in April, when U.S. President Donald Trump kicked off a global tariff war. Bond prices are expected to rise on Monday. Trump on Friday unveiled additional levies of 100% on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on critical software by November 1, in a reprisal against China curbing its critical rare earth exports. The threats, made after Asian markets closed, sent U.S. and European markets sharply lower. An index tracking Nasdaq-listed China stocks tumbled 6%, while the U.S.-listed KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF plunged 7%. TRADE WAR WORRIES RETURN "In the short term, the revived trade war will weigh on China's stock market," said Wang Yapei, a Shanghai-based hedge fund manager. But he expects the turbulence to be short-lived, betting China and the U.S. will eventually work through negotiations, as "the cost of large-scale conflict is too high for both powers." Investors also expect policy support from Beijing to help soothe investor nerves while betting that Trump may back down slightly. China described Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods as hypocritical on Sunday and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. Charles Wang, chairman of Shenzhen Dragon Pacific Capital Management Co, said growing geopolitical uncertainty means China will likely further ease monetary policy to aid economic growth, boding well for stocks.  A correction could also create buying opportunities in Chinese tech stocks, which would benefit from Beijing's stepped-up self-sufficiency drive amid growing threats of "a Sino-U.S. tech decoupling," he said. In addition, investors are inspired by signs that China is proactively restricting rare earth exports before the U.S. has time to build its own supply chains, he said. Not using this leverage now is "like saving your trump card for too long and missing your chance to use it." TACO AGAIN? China Merchants Securities said geopolitical tensions benefit Chinese sectors including artificial intelligence , robots, defence, innovative drugs and chipmaking. "Any correction would give long-term investors a chance to buy the stocks at lower prices," the brokerage said. But Trump's proposed 100% tariff hike will torpedo export-oriented sectors including electric motors, electrical equipment, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, furniture and bedding, according to Xiangcai Securities.  If the increase materialises, "it will wipe out profit at most Chinese exporters," the brokerage said in a note.  Many analysts, however, think the chance of triple-digit tariff is slim. "This statement is more of Trump's signature negotiation tactic—applying maximum pressure to bolster bargaining leverage and force concessions during trade talks," Changjiang Securities said in a report.  "It will likely again play out as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)." Lu Ting, Nomura's Chief China Economist, said continued economic and trade clashes between the two superpowers are inevitable. "However, in the near term, both sides are still reliant on one another…so we believe this latest escalation is more about posturing for incoming negotiations and meetings," he said, seeing "a decent chance" of a Xi-Trump in-person meeting during the APEC annual summit in South Korea later this month.  (Reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong and Samuel Shen in Shanghhai; Editing by Sam Holmes)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China stocks are set to come under pressure on Monday as the renewed trade war between Washington and Beijing hits risk appetite and spurs profit-taking in a share market hovering near its highest level in a decade. However, investors and analysts expect the sell-off to be less severe than the panic-selling seen in April, when U.S. President Donald Trump kicked off a global tariff war. Bond prices are expected to rise on Monday. Trump on Friday unveiled additional levies of 100% on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on critical software by November 1, in a reprisal against China curbing its critical rare earth exports. The threats, made after Asian markets closed, sent U.S. and European markets sharply lower. An index tracking Nasdaq-listed China stocks tumbled 6%, while the U.S.-listed KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF plunged 7%. TRADE WAR WORRIES RETURN "In the short term, the revived trade war will weigh on China's stock market," said Wang Yapei, a Shanghai-based hedge fund manager. But he expects the turbulence to be short-lived, betting China and the U.S. will eventually work through negotiations, as "the cost of large-scale conflict is too high for both powers." Investors also expect policy support from Beijing to help soothe investor nerves while betting that Trump may back down slightly. China described Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods as hypocritical on Sunday and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. Charles Wang, chairman of Shenzhen Dragon Pacific Capital Management Co, said growing geopolitical uncertainty means China will likely further ease monetary policy to aid economic growth, boding well for stocks.  A correction could also create buying opportunities in Chinese tech stocks, which would benefit from Beijing's stepped-up self-sufficiency drive amid growing threats of "a Sino-U.S. tech decoupling," he said. In addition, investors are inspired by signs that China is proactively restricting rare earth exports before the U.S. has time to build its own supply chains, he said. Not using this leverage now is "like saving your trump card for too long and missing your chance to use it." TACO AGAIN? China Merchants Securities said geopolitical tensions benefit Chinese sectors including artificial intelligence , robots, defence, innovative drugs and chipmaking. "Any correction would give long-term investors a chance to buy the stocks at lower prices," the brokerage said. But Trump's proposed 100% tariff hike will torpedo export-oriented sectors including electric motors, electrical equipment, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, furniture and bedding, according to Xiangcai Securities.  If the increase materialises, "it will wipe out profit at most Chinese exporters," the brokerage said in a note.  Many analysts, however, think the chance of triple-digit tariff is slim. "This statement is more of Trump's signature negotiation tactic—applying maximum pressure to bolster bargaining leverage and force concessions during trade talks," Changjiang Securities said in a report.  "It will likely again play out as TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)." Lu Ting, Nomura's Chief China Economist, said continued economic and trade clashes between the two superpowers are inevitable. "However, in the near term, both sides are still reliant on one another…so we believe this latest escalation is more about posturing for incoming negotiations and meetings," he said, seeing "a decent chance" of a Xi-Trump in-person meeting during the APEC annual summit in South Korea later this month.  (Reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong and Samuel Shen in Shanghhai; Editing by Sam Holmes)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

(Reuters) -Shares of Treasury Wine Estates slumped on Monday to their lowest point in more than 10 years after the Australian winemaker suspended its A$200 million ($130.02 million) share buyback plan and withdrew EBITS growth outlook for fiscal 2026. The decision comes in response to an uncertain outlook for its flagship Penfolds business in China, as well as challenges facing its Treasury Americas portfolios. Treasury Wine, the country's largest standalone winemaker, had earlier flagged a shift in alcohol consumption behaviour in China as large-scale banqueting gives way to smaller-scale occasions, resulting in slower depletion of its Penfolds stock in the key market. Shares of the firm fell as much as 14.2% to A$5.99 by 2310 GMT, hitting their lowest level since September 2015. The firm noted that depletion for its Penfolds business "remains weak relative to plan", with the firm now no longer retaining its forecast for the same for low- to mid-double-digit EBITS growth in fiscal 2026 and approximately 15% EBITS growth in fiscal 2027. In its Treasury Americas portfolio, depletions were impacted by the closure of Republic National Distribution Company's (RNDC) operations in California, which was the company's incumbent distributor. While the firm looks to mitigate the full impact to fiscal 2026 EBITS associated with RNDC's closure, it still flagged increased uncertainty of its occurrence, thereby withdrawing its forecast for the segment. Similarly, given the uncertain outlook around trading conditions and expectations, Treasury Wine said it is prudent to pause the buyback until greater clarity is available. "Several initiatives are now being implemented to mitigate the expected impacts in China in F26, including pursuing opportunities to re-allocate product to select customers in other key markets in a manner that is sustainable and minimises the risk of parallel imports back into the China market," the winemaker added in its statement. ($1 = 1.5382 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio, Diane Craft and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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(Corrects Brent's settlement at lowest since May 7, not May 5, in paragraph 3) By Erwin Seba HOUSTON (Reuters) -Brent and U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel, or more than 3%, on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose increased tariffs on China cast a shadow over the demand outlook in a market seen as oversupplied. "The sell-off was driven by a shift to risk-off markets following Trump's post threatening tariffs on Chinese goods," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS. Brent crude futures settled at $62.73 a barrel, down $2.49, or 3.82%, the lowest since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $58.90 a barrel down $2.61, or 4.24%, the lowest since early May. "Today is the culmination of a variety of factors of which Trump's threat of a massive increase in tariffs on China is just the latest," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.  Production increases from OPEC, additional output gains in North and South America, and the loss of geopolitical risk after the Gaza ceasefire agreement "are all factors that can be layered on top of Trump's announcement this morning of tariffs on China," Lipow said.  Trump, who was due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in about three weeks in South Korea, complained on social media about what he characterized as China's plans to hold the global economy hostage, after China dramatically expanded its export controls on rare earth elements on Thursday. China dominates the market for such elements, which are essential to tech manufacturing. In addition to threatening to cancel the meeting with Xi, Trump said he may impose a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of Trump's initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the deal, which Israel's government ratified on Friday, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. Numerous vessels have been attacked by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen since 2023, targeting ships they deem linked to Israel in what they described as solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza. The Gaza ceasefire deal means the focus can move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts, said Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ.  A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns. "Markets' expectations for a sharp ramp-up in crude supply have not manifested themselves in substantially lower prices," BMI analysts said in a note on Friday. Investors are also worried that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could dampen the American economy and hurt oil demand in the world's largest crude consumer. (Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Anna Hirtenstein in London; Additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Nia Williams, Andrea Ricci, Edmund Klamann and Toby Chopra)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian stocks were set for a rocky start on Monday after fresh broadsides in the U.S. China trade war spooked markets with already stretched valuations, though there were signs risk sentiment had steadied with Wall St futures bouncing. A holiday in Japan and the United States made for choppy early trading, and political uncertainty still shrouded Japanese and European assets. While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1, he sounded more conciliatory over the weekend, posting that everything would be fine and the U.S. didn't want to "hurt" China. Beijing on Sunday defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment as a response to U.S. aggression, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. "We expect the ultimate resolution will be an extension of the current tariff pause past November 10 along with some new but limited concessions from both sides," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs in a note. "However, the recent policy moves suggest a wider range of outcomes than was the case ahead of prior U.S.-China talks, with the possibility of greater concessions but also a risk of substantial new export restrictions and higher tariffs, at least temporarily." Many world leaders, including Trump, are due to meeting in Egypt on Monday to discuss ceasefire plans for Gaza. Japanese markets had their own problems with the ascension of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to prime minister now in doubt, contributing to a sharp rebound in the yen and a 5% dive in Nikkei futures on Friday. The Nikkei was closed on Monday, while futures were trading up 1.0% at 46,560 but still far below the cash close of 48,088. EARNINGS, FED LOOM LARGE Wall Street was trying to make a comeback with S&P 500 futures rallying 0.8%, while Nasdaq futures jumped 1.1%. Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's high valuations. Politics also cast a cloud over Europe as the French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister. Lecornu's last government lasted just 14 hours, and he still faces a tough task to steer a budget for 2026 through a deeply divided parliament. Currency markets saw some stabilisation after Friday's rush into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar edged up 0.4% to 151.76, having slid 1.2% on Friday from a top of 153.29. The euro was flat at $1.1609, while the dollar nudged up 0.2% on the Swiss franc to 0.8010. The dollar index was a fraction firmer at 98.979, after losing 0.6% on Friday. In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday but futures slipped 4 ticks as sentiment steadied. Yields had hit multi-week lows in the wake of Trump's tariff threat, while investors had added to wagers on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Futures implied around a 98% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed later this month, and a similar probability of another move in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to offer his guidance when he speaks on the economic outlook at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. A host of other Fed members are appearing this week, along with a who's who of central bankers attending an IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.2% to $4,023 an ounce, just off last week's record high of $4,057.79. [GOL/] Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the U.S. and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. [O/R] Brent bounced 1.0% to $63.36 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 1.0% to $59.45 per barrel. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)