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(The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) By Clyde Russell LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) – Is China's stockpiling of crude oil bearish or bullish for prices? Unfortunately there is no clear cut answer to the question, as much depends on details that are simply not available, meaning the market has to rely on very limited data, which in turn drives speculation and uncertainty. China does not disclose the volumes of crude it places into strategic and commercial reserves, and it also does not state what its ultimate target volume is for inventories. This means the market is forced to rely on unnamed sources within the Chinese oil sector for a drip feed of information, which, while useful, is hardly definitive on what the world's largest buyer of crude is actually doing. There are a wide variety of estimates of how much crude China has stored so far this year, but most analysts cite a figure of at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). That does fit in with calculations of China's surplus crude, a number that is arrived at by adding together the volume from imports and domestic output, and then subtracting the amount processed by refiners. On that basis China's surplus crude was 990,000 bpd for the first eight months of the year, but it is worth noting that not all of this surplus is likely to have been added to storage as the official data does not capture some volumes processed in small refineries or petrochemical plants. But if the assumption is that China has added at least 500,000 bpd to storage so far this year, the question becomes how has this affected the market? Global benchmark Brent futures have been quite stable since April, trading in a range around $65 a barrel, apart from a brief spike higher during the conflict between Israel and Iran. It is likely that prices would have been weaker if China's import demand had been consistently 500,000 bpd weaker than it has been. In effect, China's stockpiling has allowed the eight members of OPEC+ to unwind their voluntary cuts of about 2.5 million bpd without crashing prices. The question then becomes how much more oil China is likely to store in coming years before it reaches its target. OUTCOMES VARY There is a wide range of estimates as to how much oil China already has in both strategic and commercial storages, with the low end being 800 million barrels and the high end being around 1.4 billion. There is also considerable speculation as to how much more Chinese authorities want to stockpile, with the high end reaching around two billion barrels. And finally there is no certainty as to when they want to complete this process, but the consensus is by 2028 at the latest. This means that depending on where you actually think their reserves currently are, and where you think they want to end up, there is a wide range of possible outcomes. If China wants to add another 1 billion barrels to storages over a three-year period, this works out to around 913,000 bpd, which would be bullish for oil prices. But if you assume it already has around 1.4 billion barrels in tanks and wants to add only 600 million more, then that amounts to around 550,000 bpd over the next three years. This is a level around current storage flows, so it does provide support to oil prices, but does not necessarily drive them higher. The other factor to note is that China has a track record of being flexible in building inventories, buying more crude when it deems prices to be reasonable and pulling back when it believes prices have risen too high. A recent example of this may be seen in its September imports, which dropped to 10.83 million bpd from 11.66 million bpd in August, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. September was the weakest month since February and the drop in imports came after the price spike in June, when Brent reached as high $81.40 a barrel as Israel and Iran clashed. September-arriving cargoes would largely have been arranged during this period of higher prices, and it is likely Chinese refiners decided to ease back on their imports and await a return to lower prices. In effect, China's stockpiling becomes a stabilising factor for oil prices. China will buy more crude if prices stay relatively low and stable, thus providing a floor to the market, but will pull back on imports if prices move higher, thus providing a ceiling. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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Oct 10 (OPTA) – Summaries for the Friendlies on Thursday (start times are GMT) Friendlies 3 ……………………………………………………….. Uzbekistan () 2 Kuwait () 0 ……………………………………………………….. Friendlies 1 ……………………………………………………….. Romania (2) 2 Scorers: L. Munteanu 12, I. Hagi 44 Subs used: Ciubotaru 46 (Opruț), Dobre 58 (Ș. Baiaram), Man 58 (Moruțan), Miculescu 58 (Munteanu), Cîrjan 70 (Hagi), Tănase 89 (Dragomir) Moldova (1) 1 Scorers: I. Radu 38og Yellow card: Crăciun 93 Subs used: Gherasimencov 46 (Dumbrăvanu), Boiciuc 46 (Damaşcan), Moțpan 46 (Postolachi), Ș. Bodișteanu 55 (Perciun), Bogaciuc 63 (Borș), Plătică 77 (Raţă) Referee: Ishmael Barbara ……………………………………………………….. England (3) 3 Scorers: M. Rogers 3, O. Watkins 11, B. Saka 20 Yellow card: Guéhi 34, Spence 72 Subs used: Rashford 46 (Watkins), Loftus-Cheek 69 (Rice), Henderson 69 (Anderson), Gibbs-White 70 (Rogers), Bowen 70 (Saka), Lewis-Skelly 80 (Stones) Wales (0) 0 Yellow card: Williams 27 Subs used: James 64 (Wilson), Kpakio 64 (Williams), Mepham 64 (Davies), Sheehan 64 (Ampadu), Harris 76 (Moore), Koumas 76 (Johnson) Attendance: 78126 Referee: Urs Schnyder ……………………………………………………….. Poland (0) 1 Scorers: P. Zieliński 49 Yellow card: Piątek 23 Subs used: Grabara 46 (Drągowski), Świderski 46 (Szymański), Kiwior 46 (Wiśniewski), Wszołek 46 (Frankowski), Kapustka 63 (Zieliński), Pyrka 73 (Skóraś) New Zealand (0) 0 Yellow card: Boxall 34, Stamenić 54, Garbett 61 Subs used: de Jong 72 (Waine), Old 72 (Garbett), Kelly-Heald 82 (de Vries), Tuiloma 82 (Payne), Parker-Price 82 (Thomas), Wood 84 (McCowatt) Attendance: 30412 Referee: Erik Lambrechts ……………………………………………………….. Morocco (0) 1 Scorers: J. El Yamiq 90+4 Subs used: Igamane 59 (Saibari), En-Nesyri 59 (El Kaabi), Ben Seghir 69 (El Khannouss), Targhalline 70 (Ezzalzouli), Akhomach 79 (Brahim Díaz), Talbi 79 (Belammari) Bahrain (0) 0 Subs used: Mahdi Abduljabbar 57 (Ebrahim Al Khatal), Ali Madan 70 (Omar Saber), Sayed Mahdi Sharaf 81 (Jassim Al Shaikh), Mohamed Al Romaihi 81 (Mahdi Al Humaidan), Husain Jameel 81 (Mohamed Marhoon) Attendance: 53000 Referee: Sadok Selmi ……………………………………………………….. Friday, October 10 fixtures (GMT) Japan v Paraguay (1020) Korea Republic v Brazil (1100) Uruguay v Dominican Republic (1245) Jordan v Bolivia (1600) Russia v IR Iran (1700) Chile v Peru (2300) Canada v Australia (2330) Saturday, October 11 fixtures (GMT) Argentina v Venezuela (0000) United States v Ecuador (0030) Grenada v Cuba (2330) Sunday, October 12 fixtures (GMT) Mexico v Colombia (0100) Malta v Bosnia-Herzegovina (1700) Monday, October 13 fixtures (GMT) Uzbekistan v Uruguay (1245) Montenegro v Liechtenstein (1600) Puerto Rico v Argentina (2300) Tuesday, October 14 fixtures (GMT) IR Iran v Tanzania Venezuela v Belize (0100) Japan v Brazil (1030) Korea Republic v Paraguay (1100) Norway v New Zealand (1600) Albania v Jordan (1700) Russia v Bolivia (1700)

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Oct 10 (Reuters) – Far Eastern University Inc: * FINALIZED SUBSCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL 114,286 COMMON SHARES IN HIGHER ACADEMIA, INC Further company coverage:

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* Investors see no clear catalyst for further widening in French spreads absent new elections * Broader euro area fixed income market largely shrugged off France’s political turmoil * Macron to meet party leaders on Friday in bid to appoint new prime minister * Aviva says fiscal policy remains in focus, with risk of steeper curves globally By Stefano Rebaudo Oct 10 (Reuters) – The risk premium investors demand to hold French government bonds rather than safe-haven German Bunds was on track to end the week only slightly wider with all eyes on President Emmanuel Macron's efforts to steer a path out of political crisis. The broader European market largely shrugged off the renewed political turmoil in France, with the 10-year yield spread between Italian and German bonds hovering near levels seen last Friday, before French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned. Euro area borrowing costs were set to end the week roughly unchanged, as a U.S. government shutdown and a well-telegraphed European Central Bank rate outlook left investors without clear direction. Germany’s 10-year Bund yields, the bloc’s benchmark, were 2 basis points (bps) lower at 2.68%, set for a weekly fall of 1.5 bps. “France remains a deteriorating credit story over time, and RBC BlueBay thinks that Moody’s or S&P will confirm a cut in the French rating to A over the coming few weeks,” said Mark Dowding, BlueBay chief investment officer, RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “However, there may be limited catalyst for a materially wider spread for now, in the absence of new elections,” he added, noting that the asset manager has closed its short position in OATs. The yield gap between Bunds and 10-year French government bonds was at 81.50 bps from 79 bps late last Friday. It hit 87.96 bps earlier this week, the highest level since January 13, on concerns about the French fiscal outlook. President Emmanuel Macron will convene a meeting of France's mainstream political parties on Friday after his office said late on Wednesday that he would appoint a new Prime Minister within 48 hours. The German/Italian 10-year yield spread stood at 83 bps from 84 at the end of last week. S&P will review Italy's credit rating, currently 'BBB+' with a stable outlook, late on Friday, after Fitch’s upgrade last month. Markets kept a close eye on global fiscal policy, with investors wary of a rise in long-dated yields that could trigger more curve steepening — when longer maturities climb faster than shorter ones. "We continue to see higher risk premia and steeper curves," said Vasileios Gkionakis, senior economist and strategist at Aviva Investors, referring to global markets. "The interplay of fiscal and monetary policies will have important implications for growth and inflation for the foreseeable future," he added. The spread between 10- and 30-year German bond yields — seen as more sensitive to long-term fiscal concerns — stood at 57 basis points, down from a peak of 63.5 bps in early September, the highest since July 2019. U.S. Treasury yields were lower with the benchmark 10-year yield dropping 3.5 bps to 4.11% in London trade, after rising modestly on Thursday. Germany’s 2-year yields, more sensitive to expectations for ECB policy rates, slipped 0.5 bps to 1.99%. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

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