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By Isla Binnie and Niket Nishant NEW YORK (Reuters) -Carlyle Group released its own measure of U.S. economic data on Tuesday, including a sharply lower estimate for September jobs growth despite rising economic output, to a market left wanting official releases because of the government shutdown.  The global investment firm estimated that U.S. employers added just 17,000 jobs last month, far below the 54,000 expected in the nonfarm payrolls report, which had been scheduled for release last week. The firm's internal indicators showed GDP growth running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September, a 3.8% drop in energy prices, and a 3.3% increase in prices for services, excluding shelter. 'DISCONNECT' BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT, ECONOMY "If you look solely at implied payroll employment growth, you'd think this was an economy on the cusp of recession or that has already fallen into recession," Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle, told Reuters. "We have seen a big rebound in household consumption and ongoing business spending fueled by the AI boom. It's a really interesting time to see the disconnect between employment and broader measures of economic health." With official statistics delayed, investors are increasingly turning to alternative sources for real-time insights, and data-rich firms are positioning themselves as stopgap providers of economic intelligence. The U.S. government shutdown has entered its seventh day and is showing little sign of resolution. Private data providers are seeing a sharp uptick in demand. Research website Bigdata.com saw a 175% surge in usage after the shutdown, its founder, Armando Gonzalez, said in an interview. "When the official data channels go dark, investors are going to continue going for alternatives," Gonzalez said. Carlyle drew the data from its portfolio of 277 companies, which employ just under 730,000 people, and 694 real estate investments. Thomas said the boom in spending on artificial intelligence was also out of step with the rest of the economy. "All the oxygen is being sucked by AI," Thomas said, pointing to booming demand for X-rays and other key semiconductor components. This growth is "uncorrelated," he added. "It reflects the secular technological shock." Other private data released in recent days also point to weak hiring. Job search firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said last week planned hiring in September hit its lowest since 2009, when the industry was reeling from the financial crisis. (Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Rod Nickel)

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(Fixes typographical errors in paragraphs 1, 8) By Mike Stone WASHINGTON (Reuters) -After months of delay, the Pentagon will select as soon as this week the defense company to design and build the Navy's next stealth fighter, a U.S. official and two people familiar with the decision said, in what will be a multibillion-dollar effort for a jet seen as central to U.S. efforts to counter China. Boeing Co and Northrop Grumman Corp are competing to be chosen to produce the aircraft, dubbed the F/A-XX. The new carrier-based jet will replace the Navy's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fleet, which has been in service since the 1990s. The decision to move ahead with a selection was made by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday, the U.S. official and one of the people said.  The U.S. Navy could announce the winner of the competition to build its fighter as soon as this week, one of the people said. But last-minute snags have delayed progress on the Navy jet in the past and could do so again, sources said. The Navy and the Pentagon did not respond to several requests for comment. Holdups on F/A-XX highlight broader questions about the future of naval aviation and the role of aircraft carriers in confronting China. Delaying the program or starving it of funds could leave the Navy without a modern fighter capable of operating from carriers in the 2030s and beyond, potentially undermining the fleet's ability to project power.  The F/A-XX is expected to feature advanced stealth capabilities, improved range and endurance, and the ability to integrate with both uncrewed combat aircraft and the Navy's carrier-based air defense systems. China has been "incredibly ambitious in prototyping 6th generation aircraft and fielding 5th generation fighters and bombers, so this award could be viewed as an important decision to keep pace," said Roman Schweizer, an analyst at TD Cowen. DELAY A funding dispute in the spring and summer between the Pentagon and Congress delayed the program's advancement. The Pentagon sought $74 million for the jet to keep it on "minimal development funding." Some Pentagon officials had sought to delay the program by up to three years, citing concerns about engineering and supply chain capacity, Reuters reported in May. Congress and the Navy had wished to move forward with awarding a contract. Congress put $750 million to speed the F/A-XX jet into the massive tax-cut and spending bill which was signed into law this summer. Additionally, Congress earmarked an additional $1.4 billion for F/A-XX in fiscal 2026. Beyond the funding dispute, there was also debate during the months-long delay about whether defense contractors Northrop and Boeing would struggle to make the jet on schedule. Defense officials debated whether Boeing could employ enough engineers for the project after it was awarded a contract to build the U.S. Air Force's F-47 jet in March, sources said. They also debated whether Northrop would strain under the ballooning costs of the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program, aimed at replacing the aging Minuteman III missiles, the sources said. The quantity of F/A-XX jets, the value and exact timelines of the program remain classified, but previous such contracts – such as that for the F-35 – have been worth tens of billions of dollars over their lifetime. The U.S. Navy still plans to buy more than 270 Lockheed Martin Corp F-35C jets for its carrier fleet. Earlier this year, Lockheed Martin was ejected from the F/A-XX competition.  The first production jets are expected to enter service in the 2030s, while F/A-18s are expected to remain in service into the 2040s. (Reporting by Mike Stone in Washington; Editing by Chris Sanders and Lincoln Feast.)

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By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist  A burst of profit-taking and economic jitters knocked U.S. and world stocks off their record-high perches on Tuesday as investors digested the ongoing political gridlock in the U.S. and France, while gold futures reached the landmark $4,000 an ounce level. More on that below. In my column today I look at the asymmetric risks in the Fed's easy policy stance. Chair Jerome Powell says rate cuts are needed to support the creaking labor market, but that may be questionable. What's less debatable is the whoosh they are giving to already booming asset prices. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points: * U.S. bank reserves below $3 trillion U.S. bank reserves held at the Fed are below $3 trillion for the first time since January – down nearly $300 billion since late August – a clear sign that excess liquidity is being drained from the system. There's nothing magical about the $3 trillion figure, and it is probably well above the unknowable level where officials reckon reserves are still "ample". But it brings into focus Fed QT and the question of how low can reserves go without sparking liquidity concerns. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said $2.7 trillion might hypothetically be an ideal level. It's not far away. * Bond blues Sovereign debt markets around the world are under heavy pressure, particularly the long end of the curve, where yields have recently shot up to historic highs in many countries. And in the case of Japan, record highs. There was some respite for U.S. Treasuries on Tuesday, but the backdrop remains challenging. Policymakers are running economies hot with monetary and fiscal easing, just as financial markets are booming and inflation is above target. Right now, investors are more inclined to sell any rip than buy any dip. * Nothing's gonna touch you in these golden years Gold futures reached $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday, and the spot market price got to within $10 of that landmark level. Bullion has climbed 20% in just six weeks, and is up more than 50% this year. The rally must run out of steam soon, right? Perhaps. But as talk of 'debasement' trades continues to percolate, and central banks continue buying, it's not clear what that catalyst is or when it appears. Easy Fed risks pouring fuel on 'everything' rally The Federal Reserve says its interest rate cuts are aimed at softening the impact of a looming labor market rupture. Unfortunately, cheaper money is unlikely to achieve that goal, but what it almost certainly will do is fuel the "everything" rally in financial assets. The reasoning posited by Chair Jerome Powell and the bevy of doves on the Federal Open Market Committee for pre-emptive easing is sound enough. Job growth is evaporating, which risks triggering a spiral of surging unemployment, lower consumption, and slower growth or even recession. The problem is the Fed's go-to tool in its armory – the federal funds policy rate – is a blunt one. This has always been true, but the risks in using it now are particularly asymmetric and increasingly skewed towards unwanted outcomes.  This is partly down to the imbalances that have taken root across corporate, economic and financial America. Consumption is driven by the richest households, who own most of a booming Wall Street, where profits, investment and market cap are dominated by a handful or two of megacompanies.  The Fed is easing monetary policy with U.S. financial conditions the loosest in over three years, credit spreads the tightest since 1998, inflation a percentage point above target, and GDP growth running at an annualized rate of around 3% or higher.  In financial markets, the "everything" rally is in full flow – Wall Street's big three indices, the Russell 2000 small-cap index, the tech sector, semiconductor stocks, gold, and bitcoin are all at record highs.  Powell did say late last month that equity prices were "fairly highly valued", perhaps echoing former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan's 1996 speech highlighting "irrational exuberance" in markets at that time. It's worth remembering, however, that the S&P 500 subsequently doubled and the Nasdaq quadrupled in value before peaking in March 2000.  There's no suggestion a similar boom – or bust – is on the cards. But because the wealth effect seems so prevalent, perhaps the Fed should be factoring financial market conditions into their decision-making more than they have in the past. IT'S A 'LOW-HIRE, LOW-FIRE' LABOR MARKET  Yet that doesn't appear to be the case. The Fed has shifted its focus towards the employment side of its dual mandate, but it's not clear how fragile the labor market really is.  Much of the recent spike in jobless claims can be traced to one-off weather events in certain states and, more importantly, one of the main reasons job growth has slowed is the Trump administration's immigration and deportation policies.  Even though policymakers' concerns may be justified, labor dynamics today are different from years gone by. It is a "low-hire, low-fire" job market – job growth is clearly slowing, but labor supply is shrinking too.  The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office last month revised down its January estimates of net immigration this year by 1.6 million, and lowered next year's forecast by almost 1 million.  This has helped slash the monthly breakeven rate of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate steady to well below 50,000, according to St. Louis Fed estimates, from over 150,000 at the start of the year.  And it's worth remembering that the unemployment rate is still a historically low 4.3%. It's unclear whether rate cuts, even the additional 100 basis points  futures markets expect by the end of next year, will encourage businesses to hire more workers in this environment.   As economists at BlackRock point out, that degree of easing is typically associated with a much starker weakening of the labor market, inflation, and growth, none of which looks certain or even likely at this juncture.  BlackRock economists' base case scenario is what appears to be playing out right now – resilient household incomes spurring a revival in consumer spending, and the wave of AI-related investment in tech equipment, software and data centers powering growth. Markets are reacting accordingly.  According to Chair Powell, the Fed's policy stance is "modestly restrictive", that is, close to neutral. On balance, further easing probably risks overheating Wall Street more than having a discernible positive effect on the labor market. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.  Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever;)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)