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By Iain Withers and Koh Gui Qing NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks gained and gold traded near record highs on Thursday as investors took in their stride the potential ramifications of a U.S. government shutdown, while a weak private U.S. labor market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors have been largely sanguine about the shutdown's impact on the markets and economy, helped by data of past shutdowns that showed limited fallouts. Morgan Stanley, for example, said U.S. share prices have risen an average 4.4% while real U.S. economic growth has expanded 2.2% during shutdowns in the past. Instead, investors are focused on how much the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates this year, and whether the roaring U.S. stock market is due for a short-term pullback in the near future. Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, said sector sub-indices for the S&P 500 index are showing a marked correlation with downside risks. "Every other time they have done so since 2023, the S&P has declined by 5-18% in the following weeks," Colas and Rabe said. "This is not an outright 'sell' signal, but history says to be selective here."  The S&P 500, which has risen 14% so far this year, was flat after briefly touching a record high of 6,731.94 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% after also hitting an all-time high of 22,900.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was also little changed. A protracted U.S. government shutdown could mean that the release of key official data on employment and inflation is delayed or disrupted, clouding the picture on the health of the world's biggest economy and the path for interest rates. A monthly payrolls report seems unlikely now to be released on Friday, putting an ADP employment report that showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September into sharper focus. Traders are now pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of the year as almost a done deal. "I hope they sort this out rapidly," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at asset manager Carmignac, referring to the government shutdown, adding that inflation data was also due ahead of the Fed's next meeting. "It's like a blind man walking with a blind dog," he said. SHUTDOWN ANGST HURTS DOLLAR, BOOSTS GOLD The MSCI's broadest index of global stocks was up about 0.1% on Thursday, after European stocks hit another record high, up about 0.5%. Tech shares in Asia had earlier rallied, helping drive up the region's stock indexes, partly lifted by news that South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres.  Gold , which have been buoyed by a combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst, took a breather and slipped 0.5% after reaching another all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight. The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% overnight, and was last at 3.5449%. "As is often the case, fresh highs are likely to beget yet more fresh highs here, with momentum still firmly with the bulls, and the fundamental case for further upside in PMs (precious metals) a solid one too," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near a one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.864, up 0.1% from Wednesday's closing level. The dollar was little changed against the yen at 147.165 yen, after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signalled confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike were falling into place in remarks at an industry event. The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1717, while sterling fell 0.3% at $1.3441. Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day due to concerns about oversupply in the market. [O/R] Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $64.18 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also dipped 1.9% to $60.6 a barrel.   (Reporting by Iain Withers in London and Kevin Buckland in TokyoEditing by Deepa Babington and Nick Zieminski)

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By Lucia Mutikani and Ann Saphir (Reuters) -Alternate data from public and private sources, a substitute for official statistics delayed by a government shutdown, showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September with sluggish hiring but no change in an unemployment rate economists see as influenced by falling numbers of foreign-born workers. The federal government's 15th shutdown since 1981, with some 750,000 workers furloughed, has delayed publication of key reports including the September unemployment and jobs data due on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key reference point for Federal Reserve policymakers who meet in a little under four weeks to decide whether to cut interest rates again. Also delayed so far are the weekly jobless claims report and factory orders and construction spending data for August. While the data could still be available for the Fed's October 28-29 meeting depending on the length of the shutdown, alternative data, such as a new "real-time" estimate of the unemployment rate issued on Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is likely to attract more attention from Fed officials, economists and analysts trying to understand the economy while the government is idle. The Chicago Fed report, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun. But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market that is likely to keep the Fed poised to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The Fed's rate cut discussion now leans heavily on policymakers' views of whether the labor market is holding up, with the 4.3% jobless rate considered around full employment, or is at risk of a sharp rupture. The Fed last month cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% after job gains slowed sharply and the unemployment rate ticked up in August.  "The data dogs are howling because we are not getting our usual supply of information," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Marketplace Radio on Wednesday. "The best number is the BLS number, but if we don't have that, we're going to use the Chicago Fed number and other numbers."  The Chicago Fed's new data series, updated twice monthly, showed the hiring rate for unemployed workers dipping slightly and the rate of layoffs and other job separations up a bit.  That put "limited upward pressure" on the unemployment rate, the bank said.  LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING Earlier this week, data from payroll processor ADP indicated private payrolls fell 32,000 in September. The ADP data may also take on added weight in the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics updates, and was cited by Fed Governor Christopher Waller in August as helping ground internal Fed staff estimates that showed "continued deterioration" in the job market beginning in May. New data issued Thursday by technology firm Intuit, based on a sample of roughly 400,000 of small businesses from its QuickBooks platform, showed firms with from one to nine employees shed more than 48,000 jobs in September, a decline of around 0.37%. Firms of that size have seen a steady drop in employment since early 2024, with average monthly employment for the latest quarter down about 400,000 from a peak of 13.1 million. U.S. employers meanwhile announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans this year were the lowest since 2009, according to the latest report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that provided further signs of a labor market at a standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of tougher immigration policy and technological advances. The firm said planned job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064 in September. Employers have so far this year announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.  Hiring plans so far this year have totaled 204,939, the lowest year-to-date since 2009 when the economy was just emerging from the Great Recession.  "Right now, we're dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases and a transformative new technology," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring." But there are conflicting signals, and a puzzle over whether weak job growth is due to a slowing economy or a lack of workers, or both. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year, yet the jobless rate has been fairly stable. Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade policy and the rise of artificial intelligence have reduced demand for workers. But the administration's immigration crackdown may also be limiting the availability of labor. In its latest survey the National Federation of Independent Business reported that 58% of independent business owners planned to hire, more than in August, but that nearly 90% of that group "reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill," up seven percentage points from the month before.  Should the shutdown persist into next week, reports due later this month, including consumer price, retail sales, housing starts and producer inflation data for September, will probably not be published, impacting decision making by households, investors and policymakers.   (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Jamie Freed and Andrea Ricci)

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By Akash Sriram and Abhirup Roy (Reuters) -Tesla announced record quarterly deliveries on Thursday, but concerns that an expiration of the U.S. tax credit for EVs would turn a rush of buying into a trickle weighed on its shares. The Elon Musk-led carmaker went all in to drive sales before the withdrawal of the $7,500 federal tax credit, using a combination of discounts, financing deals, social media ads and customer emails. "I'm skeptical that this will be sustainable and I think we could see a soft couple of quarters," said Elliot Johnson, chief investment officer at Evolve ETFs, which manages investments in Tesla. The sales surge reflected pulled-forward demand, possibly to lock in incentives, rather than growing consumer interest, Johnson said, adding it would not be irrational for investors to "sell the news" and buy again next year. Tesla shares were down 3.4% in afternoon trading. The stock has rallied recently – up nearly 14% this year as of Wednesday's close – after the company's board proposed a mega pay package for Musk, who has also bought more shares. Tesla, like its rivals, received the credits from the government and used them to offer attractive leases. Following the expiry, Tesla has raised lease prices for its vehicles. The prices of Tesla vehicles, excluding the credit, remained unchanged. On Thursday, the company said it delivered 497,099 vehicles for the three months ended September, up 7.4% from 462,890 a year earlier, and well above Wall Street expectations of 443,919 vehicles. The deliveries included 481,166 Model 3 compact sedans and its best-selling Model Y crossovers. The carmaker is set to report quarterly results on October 22. Strong demand for its refreshed Model Y helped sales in China, said Troy Teslike, an independent Tesla researcher. It also began delivering the six-seat Model Y L in China in September, a family-focused variant aimed at boosting demand in the world's largest EV market. Europe, however, remained a weak spot as rivals aggressively promoted plug-in hybrids, while Chinese EV brands started gaining ground in the hyper-competitive market. The company's European sales, including the UK, fell 22.5% from a year earlier in August, cutting its market share to 1.5%, according to data from the region's Automobile Manufacturers' Association. Tesla's full-year 2025 deliveries are projected to be about 1.61 million, roughly 10% below 2024, according to Visible Alpha. Tesla will need to deliver 389,498 vehicles in the December quarter to meet that projection. Meanwhile, smaller rival Rivian on Thursday lowered the midpoint of its annual deliveries forecast, but beat estimates for quarterly deliveries owing to a boost in demand from buyers rushing to take advantage of tax credits. MUSK AND TESLA Tesla holdings account for the bulk of Musk's wealth and a recent surge in the company's stock price helped his net worth breach the $500 billion mark on Wednesday, bolstering his position as the world's richest person. The company's board has proposed a shareholder vote on a new CEO award that could grant Musk about 12% of the company, worth up to $1 trillion, if performance and valuation targets are met, including delivering 20 million vehicles over a 10-year period. The billionaire has been positioning Tesla more as a technology company than an EV maker by focusing on AI-based self-driving systems, robotaxis and humanoid robots. CHEAPER MODELS Tesla has delayed rolling out the lower-cost Model Y in the U.S., pushing the timing by several months, with an eventual plan to build the variant in China and Europe.  Tesla said in June that it had made "first builds" of the vehicle, but would start selling it in the fourth quarter and ramp up output slower than planned. Analysts said Tesla's ability to cushion a post-credit slowdown will depend heavily on its push into lower-priced models. "The challenge now is dealing with the potential slowdown that follows, and that's where a new, more affordable model becomes crucial to keeping momentum going," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, who personally owns Tesla shares. The stripped-down version is designed to be roughly 20% cheaper to produce than the refreshed Model Y and could scale to about 250,000 units a year in the U.S. by 2026, sources told Reuters earlier this year. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

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