Factbox-US holiday sales growth to be muted this year, forecasts show

(Reuters) -U.S. retailers are bracing for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts. The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers' annual sales. In recent weeks, several companies have issued mixed earnings forecasts heading into the season. While Walmart and Macy's raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations. Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys: SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers ers projected the are expected to steepest spend about $1,552 year-over-year drop per person on in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3% spending since the from last year. pandemic, primarily fueled by Gen Z shoppers pulling back amid economic uncertainty. Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during are expected to the November grow at their 2025-January 2026 slowest pace since period are expected the pandemic. to rise between A 2.9% and 3.4%, survey conducted by compared with a Deloitte showed the 4.2% increase last least optimistic year, marking the outlook on economic slowest growth sentiment since the since the 2018-2019 firm started season. tracking it in E-commerce sales 1997.  are projected to increase between 7% The and 9% during the survey also said season, consumers expect to compared with last reduce their year's 8% growth. spending on both In-store sales are retail goods and projected to rise experiences, with between 2% and nearly all 2.2%, compared to a generations and 3.4% growth in income groups 2024. planning to pull back on spending Consumers are this season, except expected to spend for Gen X shoppers. an average of $1,595, down 10% from last year, according to a survey of 4,270 consumers conducted online by an independent research company and fielded between August 27 and September 5. 77% of surveyed consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026, with 56% of respondents being concerned about a potential recession in the next six months. Salesforce The software Online spending is company projects a expected to rise slower growth in 2.1% to $288 online spending billion, lower than between November 1 a 4% increase in and December 31. the same period last year.  Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are Economics Institute expected to rise expects U.S. 3.6% between holiday sales November 1 and growth to moderate December 24 this this year. Still, year, compared to a it will be driven 4.1% growth in the by promotions, as same period last consumers seek the year. best value for Online sales are their money amid expected to jump broader 7.9% this holiday macroeconomic season, compared to uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last year. In-store sales are projected to grow 2.3%. It rose 2.8% in the 2024 holiday season. Adobe Analytics U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to slower pace this $253.4 billion year, Adobe between November 1 Analytics projects, and December 31, as macroeconomic compared with an uncertainty 8.7% rise last continues to year. pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales spending. is expected to rise 6.3% to $14.2 billion. Consumer spending between October 7 and October 8 is expected to be $9 billion, a 6.2% increase compared with last year, as the data firm expects shoppers to kick off some of their early holiday purchases during Amazon's October Big Deal Days. EY-Parthenon Ernst & Young's U.S. holiday retail consulting firm sales in the forecasts a modest November-December rise in holiday 2025 shopping sales this year, season are expected driven mainly by to rise 2.5%, higher prices due compared with a to inflation. While 4.2% increase last higher-income year, EY-Parthenon households are forecast shows. largely unaffected The by price increases, sales growth at spending from 2.5% is expected to middle-and be the slowest lower-income since 2018, when it consumers is grew 2.4%. expected to be constrained due to While slower income total sales are growth and rising expected to cross credit dependency, $1 trillion, gains the firm says. are likely to be driven by higher prices, compared with last year, when volume growth made up about 85% of sales growth. (Reporting by Neil J Kanatt and Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

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