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By Ann Saphir and Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -The influential New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signaled on Thursday he would be comfortable with cutting interest rates again, voicing what appears to be a dominant view at the Fed despite some policymakers' qualms about rising inflation. "The risk of a further slowdown in the labor market is something I'm very focused on," Williams told the New York Times in an interview conducted on Wednesday and published a day later. He also said he felt President Donald Trump's trade tariffs were not putting as much upward pressure on inflation as many observers had expected, and he didn't see signs of any added boost ahead. "I think there are more downside risks to the labor market and employment, and that is something that takes some of the upside risk off of inflation," he said. WORRISOME POINT FOR JOB MARKET San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, speaking late Thursday in California, largely echoed Williams' view, saying that with inflation having risen less than feared from tariffs, her focus has shifted more to the labor market. "We're to a point now where the softening in the labor market looks like it could be more worrisome if we don't risk-manage it," Daly said. "That interest rate cut we took — and we projected we might take more — those were cuts designed to risk-manage as we move both our inflation goal and our employment goal to a more perfect balance." But at a time when some recent data points to stronger economic growth and consumer spending is buoyed, at least in part, by higher stock market prices, other Fed policymakers say they are worried about cutting rates. In his first speech on monetary policy since June, Fed Governor Michael Barr on Thursday leaned heavily into the risks of inflation, even as he acknowledged the potential vulnerabilities in a "roughly balanced" labor market. "The FOMC should be cautious about adjusting policy so that we can gather further data, update our forecasts, and better assess the balance of risks," Barr said, referring to the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The  Fed's policy committee voted 11-1 last month to cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to help stave off potential weakness in the labor market. The only dissent, from new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, was in favor of a bigger rate cut. Minutes of the meeting that were released on Wednesday show that the committee may have been more divided than the vote itself indicated, with "a few" participants at last month's session seeing merit in not cutting rates. Still, the majority of the Fed's 19 policymakers felt at least two more quarter-percentage-point reductions would be needed by the end of this year, forecasts showed. Williams endorsed that rate path in his interview with the New York Times, so long as the economy evolves as he expects – with inflation rising to 3% even as underlying inflation excluding tariffs heads lower, and unemployment, now at 4.3%, ticks up. Financial markets also reflect that expectation, with bets in interest-rate futures now pricing about a 95% chance that the Fed will lower its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range at its October 28-29 meeting. "The Fed is taking its cue from weak labor data," wrote Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha, noting that the recent stock market rally, fueled by huge expectations for the impact of artificial intelligence, isn't making Fed leaders like Williams rethink the need for easing policy further. Even so, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may need to corral more skeptics to deliver a rate cut later this month. With both upside inflation risks and downside risks to the labor market, the Fed is in a "challenging position" with no risk-free path forward on monetary policy, Barr said on Thursday, explicitly borrowing the way Powell phrased the central bank's current quandary. WORRIES ABOUT INFLATION REMAIN But Barr did not repeat Powell's view that a "reasonable base case" is that tariffs will only deliver a one-time upward thrust on inflation. Instead, while Barr acknowledged such a case is a possibility, he said trade policy poses "some significant risks" to the central bank's goal of keeping inflation low and stable. Barr said he forecasts underlying inflation by the Fed's key measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, to rise to above 3% by the end of this year, and noted that central bank officials do not expect headline inflation to fall to their 2% goal until the end of 2027. "After the high inflation Americans have endured, two more years would be a long time to wait for a return to our target, and that possibility weighs on my judgment for appropriate monetary policy," he said. Barr isn't alone in worrying about inflation. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who is a voting member of the FOMC this year, signaled last week that he would be hesitant about further rate cuts; two other Fed presidents who don't vote this year on policy also have argued that cutting rates risks reigniting inflation. A softer labor market could help mitigate inflation risks, Barr said, adding that it's difficult to tell, particularly without official data during the current federal government shutdown, how much demand for labor has actually softened. "We need to be prepared for the possibility that the softening in the labor market will become something worse, especially if there is a further adverse shock to demand," he said, adding that if it does, the Fed "can, and I believe would, act forcefully to stabilize the economy if necessary." (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Shri Navaratnam)

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By Savyata Mishra (Reuters) -Levi Strauss raised its full-year profit forecast on Thursday but fell short of Wall Street expectations owing to costs linked to U.S. import tariffs, sending shares of the denim maker down 7.5% in extended trading. The retailer has taken steps including securing about 70% of its holiday inventory ahead of schedule and raising prices modestly, executives said in a post-earnings call, to cushion the blow from U.S. President Donald Trump's shifting tariff policies. Still, those efforts will not fully offset the pressure, with fourth-quarter gross margin expected to take a 130-basis-point hit. "We probably have brought in a little more inventory than we normally would at this stage," CFO Harmit Singh told Reuters, adding that this was done to protect the holiday quarter. Levi now expects fiscal-year 2025 adjusted profit per share in the range of $1.27 to $1.32, up from its prior forecast of between $1.25 and $1.30 per share. The mid-point is below an estimate of $1.31, according to data compiled by LSEG. The forecast assumes U.S. tariffs will remain at 30% for China and 20% for other countries through the year-end. "Three months ago, investors could squint and imagine denim as tariff-proof, but now it's clear that even jeans can't button up against trade uncertainty, and the company looks less immune than hoped," said Michael Ashley Schulman, CIO at Running Point Capital Advisors. Levi has leaned into full-price sales through its direct-to-consumer channel, broadened its product offerings and kept a tight leash on SKUs, an industry term for inventory. Its merchandise levels jumped 12% in the reported quarter, compared to last year. The company sources the bulk of its products from South Asia, including Bangladesh, Cambodia and Pakistan – countries that face high tariffs under the Trump administration. Still, Levi topped Wall Street estimates for third-quarter sales and profit thanks to strong demand for wide-leg denim bottoms in Europe and the Americas. It reported a 7% rise in net revenue for the quarter ended August 31 to $1.54 billion, beating analysts' estimate of $1.50 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. Adjusted profit came in at 34 cents per share, compared to an estimate of 31 cents per share. (Reporting by Savyata Mishra in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai)

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(Reuters) -Former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Thursday he has joined U.S. tech giant Microsoft and AI startup Anthropic as a senior adviser. Sunak, who stepped down as the leader of the opposition Conservative Party following a defeat in the general election last July, continues to serve as a member of the British Parliament. In a LinkedIn post, Sunak said that the proceeds from the roles will be donated in full to The Richmond Project, a charity he started with his wife Akshata Murty. Amazon and Google-backed Anthropic said that the internally focused, part-time advisory role fully complied with the conditions of the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments, or ACOBA, which oversees rules on new jobs for former ministers and senior civil servants. Sunak will advise Anthropic on strategy, macroeconomic and geopolitical trends. The role focuses on global strategic matters, not UK-specific policy, and Sunak is prohibited from initiating contact with UK government officials on behalf of Anthropic.  At Microsoft, Sunak will provide strategic perspectives on macroeconomic and geopolitical trends. He will be speaking at the annual Microsoft Summit, according to an advice letter by ACOBA's interim chair, Isabel Doverty, posted to its website on Thursday. Sunak will not be advising on any UK policy matters. The former prime minister cannot lobby for the firm for two years from his last day in ministerial office, nor draw on any privileged information from his time in government, according to the letter. Microsoft did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The development follows Sunak's July return to Goldman Sachs in an advisory role. He had previously worked at the Wall Street bank as an analyst in the early 2000s, before joining a series of hedge funds. (Reporting by Juby Babu in Mexico City; Editing by Alan Barona)

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By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The yen was set for its steepest weekly drop in a year on Friday, as investors fretted about fast-receding chances of another rate hike this year while comments from Japan's likely next prime minister failed to soothe market jitters. The yen was last steady at 153.12 per U.S. dollar in early Asian hours, hovering near its weakest level since mid-February. The Japanese currency is on pace for a nearly 4% drop in the week, its biggest decline since early October last year. The yen's drastic drop has been centred on worries that the Bank of Japan may not hike interest rates again this year after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi's surprise victory, stoking worries of Japanese authorities needing to step in. Takaichi, on course to become Japan's first female prime minister, said on Thursday that the country's central bank is responsible for setting monetary policy but that any decision it makes must align with the government's goal. She also said she did not want to trigger excessive declines in the yen but her comments did little to lift the currency. "Markets are still of the view that Takaichi's leadership will make it politically difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Finance Minister Kato's recent comments on the FX markets indicate imminent FX intervention is unlikely which may encourage markets to further sell the yen." Traders are currently pricing about 45% chance of a rate hike from the BOJ in the December meeting and are only fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike in March. FRENCH DRAMA DRAGS EURO The euro last fetched $1.15635, anchored near two-month lows hit on Thursday and on pace for a 1.5% drop for the week, its sharpest decline in 11 months as the political turmoil in France weighed on the single currency. French President Emmanuel Macron is searching for his sixth prime minister in under two years, hoping his next pick can steer a budget through a legislature riven by crisis. The political paralysis has made it deeply challenging to pass a belt-tightening budget, demanded by investors increasingly worried by France's yawning deficit. "In France, turmoil following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu has undermined EUR sentiment," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets. "Volatility remains elevated across FX markets as traders readjust positions in response to shifting central bank expectations and political risks." That has left the dollar upbeat, with the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, at 99.4, near a two-month high. The index is on course for a 1.7% gain, its biggest jump in a year. "The recent dollar rally has gone against market positioning and prompted a partial covering of USD shorts," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "There remains a high degree of scepticism that the USD can materially push through 100, a level in the dollar index that was quickly reversed in May," he said in a note. With the U.S. shutdown continuing and little to no economic data for investors to parse through for clues on the path the Federal Reserve is likely to take, markets are keeping an eye on comments from policymakers. Traders are pricing in a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps at its October meeting, while the odds of an additional cut in December have dropped to 80%, from 90%, in the past week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The influential New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signalled on Thursday he would be comfortable with cutting interest rates again, despite some policymakers' qualms about rising inflation that suggest such a decision would not be easily made. In other currencies, the Australian dollar was 0.11% firmer at $0.6563, while sterling was at $1.33044, rooted near the two-month low it hit on Thursday. The New Zealand dollar was at $0.57475, hovering near its lowest in six months after the central bank slashed its benchmark rate by an aggressive 50 bps on Wednesday, as policymakers signalled concerns about the frail state of the economy and kept the door open for further easing. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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(Reuters) -San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday that a softening labor market and easing inflation were reasons behind last month's decision to cut rates, and prompted the Fed to signal the possibility of further rate cuts ahead. "The economy is slowing a little bit. Consumers are running out of all the excess savings they might have had and they've been dealing with a higher price level. And then we have restrictive monetary policy," Daly said at an event at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange. "We're to a point now where the softening in the labor market looks like it could be more worrisome if we don't risk manage it," Daly said. Even after September's rate cut monetary policy is "modestly restrictive" and putting downward pressure on inflation, she said. "That interest rate cut we took — and we projected we might take more — those were cuts designed to risk manage as we move both our inflation goal and our employment goal to a more perfect balance," Daly said. Asked about the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, Daly said there's good reason to think it could be transformational, though enthusiasts may well be disappointed because typically innovations that transform economies typically take decades to do so. This time it may be different, she suggested, not just because of the technology itself but also because the economy is slowing. Companies are loathe to hire employees that they might need to fire if demand falls further, and are therefore trying to find ways to use artificial intelligence to plug labor gaps. "We're now in a forcing function where we might see the gains come faster, not just because of the AI itself and what the technology can do, but also because of where we are in the economy and how firms might be able to use it," Daly said.   (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jacqueline Wong)

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By David Shepardson WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned on Thursday that the government could dismiss air traffic controllers who repeatedly fail to show up for work during the government shutdown as flight delays continue to rise. "If we have a continual small subset of controllers that don't show up to work, and they're the problem children … if we have some on our staff that aren't dedicated like we need, we're going to let them go," Duffy said on Fox Business' Varney & Co. "I can't have people not showing up for work."    The Federal Aviation Administration said on Thursday it was seeing a variety of staffing issues for a fourth straight day in places like Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Chicago, Washington, Roanoke and central Florida. There have been nearly 21,000 flight delays since Monday – including 6,300 on Thursday, according to FlightAware, with thousands tied to the FAA slowing flights because of air traffic controller absences. United and Delta each had about 500 delayed flights on Thursday, or about 15% of their flights, while American Airlines had 850 delayed, or about a quarter of its flights, and Southwest 1,300, or 30% of its flights. Duffy praised the 90% to 95% of controllers who are showing up daily despite not getting paid. "It's a small fraction of people who don't come to work that can create this massive disruption, and that's what you're seeing rippling through our skies today," Duffy added. PROCEDURES IN PLACE A National Air Traffic Controllers Association spokesperson said in response to Duffy, "There are processes and procedures in place to deal with the inappropriate use of sick leave." The union has repeatedly urged controllers to keep working during the nine-day-old government shutdown. NATCA told workers that "participating in a job action could result in removal from federal service" and is illegal. The U.S. has faced an air traffic controller staffing shortage for more than a decade and many have been working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks even before the shutdown. The FAA is about 3,500 air traffic controllers short of targeted staffing levels. "Historically, there's about 5% of delays that is attributed to staffing issues in our towers. Last couple days it has been 53%," Duffy said on Wednesday. On Thursday, Democratic Senator Ed Markey urged major airlines to provide consumers refunds if needed "without requiring them to jump through unnecessary and difficult hoops." Airlines are not required to provide hotels, meals or pay other costs tied to delays that are the fault of the FAA. Air traffic control staffing issues during this shutdown have emerged earlier than the last major halt to government funding in 2019, during U.S. President Donald Trump's first term, leading to unexpected shortages in cities around the country. During that 35-day shutdown, the number of absences by controllers and TSA officers rose as workers missed paychecks, extending checkpoint wait times at some airports. Authorities were forced to slow air traffic in New York, which put pressure on lawmakers to quickly end the standoff. Some 13,000 air traffic controllers and about 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers must still turn up for work during the government shutdown, but they are not being paid.  (Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Mark Porter and Christian Schmollinger)

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(Reuters) -San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday a softening labor market and inflation that has come in "much less" than people had feared warranted last month's U.S. interest-rate cut and prompted the Fed to signal more rate cuts could be ahead. "The economy is slowing a little bit. Consumers are running out of all the excess savings they might have had and they've been dealing with a higher price level. And then we have restrictive monetary policy," Daly said at an event at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange. "We're to a point now where the softening in the labor market looks like it could be more worrisome if we don't risk manage it." (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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(Reuters) -San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday a softening labor market and inflation that has come in "much less" than people had feared warranted last month's U.S. interest-rate cut and prompted the Fed to signal more rate cuts could be ahead. "The economy is slowing a little bit. Consumers are running out of all the excess savings they might have had and they've been dealing with a higher price level. And then we have restrictive monetary policy," Daly said at an event at the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange. "We're to a point now where the softening in the labor market looks like it could be more worrisome if we don't risk manage it." (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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By Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks limped towards the end of the week on a shaky footing on Friday as declines on Wall Street lingered into early trading, while commodity markets took a breather after their recent charge higher. Regional markets remain on track for one of their best years in a decade, firmly outstripping gains for U.S. counterparts as President Donald Trump's package of economic policies and tariffs prompts a surge of orders across the region to meet booming demand for AI-linked technology hardware. The U.S. trading session marked the point where a number of "well-subscribed, high-momentum trades" including gold, silver, crypto, and much of the S&P 500 "finally showed signs of exhaustion," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fluctuated between gains and losses, last down 0.2% as its gains for the week hung in the balance, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild declines. Shares in Hong Kong were down the most, off 1.1%, while the Australian market slid 0.1% against a backdrop of volatile commodity markets. In South Korea, stocks surged 1.7%, extending gains for the region's best-performing index. U.S. stock futures found a bottom in Asia, with corporate earnings season for the third quarter due to kick off on Wall Street next week. S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.2%, while the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, held steady near a two-month high at 99.37. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond fell to 4.1384% compared with its U.S. close of 4.148% on Thursday. Traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy at its meeting on October 29 remain solid, with Fed funds futures pricing a 94.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. TAKAICHI WALKS A TIGHTROPE The Nikkei stock index tumbled 0.7%, taking a step back after sharp gains this week including on Thursday when it swept to an all-time closing high. Data earlier in the day showed wholesale prices rose 2.7% in the year to September, in a sign of persistent cost pressure that will keep markets braced for a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan when it meets on October 30. The dollar slid 0.1% against the yen to 152.96, around the weakest level for the Japanese currency since February, after the new ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday that the country's central bank is responsible for setting monetary policy but that any decision it makes must align with the government's goal. Traders say her pledge to reassert government sway over the central bank may face a reality check from a weak yen and domestic political considerations, however. "The market expects the Japanese government to adopt expansionary fiscal policies," analysts from Bank of America wrote in a research report. "However, considerable uncertainty remains about the specifics of the policies up for debate, as well as the extent of the fiscal expansion." COMMODITIES IN FOCUS Gold edged down, extending declines after snapping a four-day winning streak on Thursday, shortly after breaching the $4,000 mark for the first time and with evidence of the ebullience spilling across into other precious metals. Spot gold was last trading down 0.1% at $3,971.93 per ounce, while silver was up 1% at $49.62, retesting the $50 mark after crossing above the boundary for the first time on Thursday. [GOL/] Chinese stocks tumbled following declines for ETFs tracking large-caps on Wall Street overnight after Beijing expanded its rare earths export controls on Thursday, tightening control over the sector ahead of talks between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. In energy markets, Brent crude edged up 0.1% to $65.27 per barrel, after Israel's government ratified a ceasefire with the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Friday, clearing the way to suspend hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours and free Israeli hostages held there shortly after that. (Reporting by Gregor Stuart HunterEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The yen was set for its steepest weekly drop in a year on Friday, as investors fretted about fast-receding chances of another rate hike this year while comments from Japan's likely next prime minister failed to soothe market jitters. The yen was last steady at 153.12 per U.S. dollar in early Asian hours, hovering near its weakest level since mid-February. The Japanese currency is on pace for a nearly 4% drop in the week, its biggest decline since early October last year. The yen's drastic drop has been centred on worries that the Bank of Japan may not hike interest rates again this year after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi's surprise victory, stoking worries of Japanese authorities needing to step in. Takaichi, on course to become Japan's first female prime minister, said on Thursday that the country's central bank is responsible for setting monetary policy but that any decision it makes must align with the government's goal. She also said she did not want to trigger excessive declines in the yen but her comments did little to lift the currency. "Markets are still of the view that Takaichi's leadership will make it politically difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Finance Minister Kato's recent comments on the FX markets indicate imminent FX intervention is unlikely which may encourage markets to further sell the yen." Traders are currently pricing about 45% chance of a rate hike from the BOJ in the December meeting and are only fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike in March. FRENCH DRAMA DRAGS EURO The euro last fetched $1.15635, anchored near two-month lows hit on Thursday and on pace for a 1.5% drop for the week, its sharpest decline in 11 months as the political turmoil in France weighed on the single currency. French President Emmanuel Macron is searching for his sixth prime minister in under two years, hoping his next pick can steer a budget through a legislature riven by crisis. The political paralysis has made it deeply challenging to pass a belt-tightening budget, demanded by investors increasingly worried by France's yawning deficit. "In France, turmoil following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu has undermined EUR sentiment," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets. "Volatility remains elevated across FX markets as traders readjust positions in response to shifting central bank expectations and political risks." That has left the dollar upbeat, with the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, at 99.4, near a two-month high. The index is on course for a 1.7% gain, its biggest jump in a year. "The recent dollar rally has gone against market positioning and prompted a partial covering of USD shorts," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "There remains a high degree of scepticism that the USD can materially push through 100, a level in the dollar index that was quickly reversed in May," he said in a note. With the U.S. shutdown continuing and little to no economic data for investors to parse through for clues on the path the Federal Reserve is likely to take, markets are keeping an eye on comments from policymakers. Traders are pricing in a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps at its October meeting, while the odds of an additional cut in December have dropped to 80%, from 90%, in the past week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The influential New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signalled on Thursday he would be comfortable with cutting interest rates again, despite some policymakers' qualms about rising inflation that suggest such a decision would not be easily made. In other currencies, the Australian dollar was 0.11% firmer at $0.6563, while sterling was at $1.33044, rooted near the two-month low it hit on Thursday. The New Zealand dollar was at $0.57475, hovering near its lowest in six months after the central bank slashed its benchmark rate by an aggressive 50 bps on Wednesday, as policymakers signalled concerns about the frail state of the economy and kept the door open for further easing. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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