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TAIPEI (Reuters) -TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported on Thursday third-quarter revenue of T$989.92 billion ($32.48 billion), beating market forecasts, and up 30% on the year ago period on surging interest in artificial intelligence applications. An LSEG SmartEstimate, drawn from 22 analysts, had predicted third-quarter revenue of T$973.26 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) is a major supplier to companies including Nvidia and Apple. ($1 = 30.4740 Taiwan dollars) (Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Faith Hung; Editing by Jamie Freed)

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By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. stock market's bull run is almost three years old, but if history is a guide, that would make it only middle-aged. The S&P 500 has set a series of record highs in the lead-up to Sunday's anniversary of the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022. On that date three years ago, the benchmark U.S. stock index marked its lowest close for the current market cycle following a bout of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Since then, a surge in technology and other megacap stocks has propelled the index up nearly 90%. That gain is still shy of the average rise of over 170% among 14 prior bull markets since 1932, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Those bull markets lasted an average of about five years.  "This isn't an old bull, and history says once they get to this point, they tend to last longer," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Optimism over the profit potential of artificial intelligence has been a major theme of the bull market, driving tech stocks such as Nvidia to stratospheric heights over the past three years. Another factor has been the resilience of the economy, with investors shaking off worries about a recession that helped valuations recover after 2022, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. "Economic growth is the key determinant of the length of bull markets," said Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "If a recession doesn’t end a bull market, it tends to run for five years or more." As inflation has eased, the U.S. Federal Reserve has pivoted to lowering interest rates over the past year, as opposed to three years ago, when the central bank's rate increases implemented to bring down inflation also pressured equities. "There's the saying that bull markets don't die of old age, it's the Fed that kills them," Kourkafas said. Now, however, he said, "when we look at what the Fed is doing, it's definitely not looking to go back into rate hikes, at least not within the next year or two." The S&P 500 has climbed more than 15% since October 2024, the third year of the current bull market. That is the strongest third-year performance of the bull markets since 1957 that lasted this long, with the third year often being a period of mixed performance during bull runs, said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. "Year 4 tends to be good, but the one caveat is you've had stronger-than-normal returns in Year 3," Lerner said. "The open question is, does that take away from the Year 4 returns?" During the latest bull run, the best-performing S&P 500 sectors by far have been information technology and communication services, up about 180% and 160% respectively. Along with Nvidia, the tech sector is loaded with AI-exposed stocks that have surged, including Microsoft, Broadcom, and Palantir. Communication services includes big gainers over the past three years such as Google parent Alphabet, Facebook owner Meta Platforms, and Netflix. Investors have gravitated toward megacap stocks during the bull run, symbolized by the strong performance of the "Magnificent Seven," which comprises Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. Some investors are hopeful the Fed's move to cut interest rates will pave the way for broader stock market leadership. The equal-weight S&P 500 – which is a proxy for the performance of the average stock in the index – has gained just 49% since the October 2022 low, significantly trailing the standard S&P 500, which is more heavily influenced by stocks with larger market values. The bull run has led to lofty valuations. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to about 23 times, based on 12-month earnings estimates for its constituents, around its highest level in five years and well above its 10-year average of 18.7, according to LSEG Datastream. The index's P/E ratio stood at 15.3 when it hit its cycle low on October 12, 2022. "Valuation is also a function of interest rates," Kourkafas said. "If, for whatever reason, inflation is sticky and we're not talking about the same level of expectations for rate cuts, maybe that changes the story."  ​ (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Alden Bentley and Rod Nickel)

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By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. stock market's bull run is almost three years old, but if history is a guide, that would make it only middle-aged. The S&P 500 has set a series of record highs in the lead-up to Sunday's anniversary of the start of the bull market on October 12, 2022. On that date three years ago, the benchmark U.S. stock index marked its lowest close for the current market cycle following a bout of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Since then, a surge in technology and other megacap stocks has propelled the index up nearly 90%. That gain is still shy of the average rise of over 170% among 14 prior bull markets since 1932, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. Those bull markets lasted an average of about five years.  "This isn't an old bull, and history says once they get to this point, they tend to last longer," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Optimism over the profit potential of artificial intelligence has been a major theme of the bull market, driving tech stocks such as Nvidia to stratospheric heights over the past three years. Another factor has been the resilience of the economy, with investors shaking off worries about a recession that helped valuations recover after 2022, said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. "Economic growth is the key determinant of the length of bull markets," said Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "If a recession doesn’t end a bull market, it tends to run for five years or more." As inflation has eased, the U.S. Federal Reserve has pivoted to lowering interest rates over the past year, as opposed to three years ago, when the central bank's rate increases implemented to bring down inflation also pressured equities. "There's the saying that bull markets don't die of old age, it's the Fed that kills them," Kourkafas said. Now, however, he said, "when we look at what the Fed is doing, it's definitely not looking to go back into rate hikes, at least not within the next year or two." The S&P 500 has climbed more than 15% since October 2024, the third year of the current bull market. That is the strongest third-year performance of the bull markets since 1957 that lasted this long, with the third year often being a period of mixed performance during bull runs, said Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. "Year 4 tends to be good, but the one caveat is you've had stronger-than-normal returns in Year 3," Lerner said. "The open question is, does that take away from the Year 4 returns?" During the latest bull run, the best-performing S&P 500 sectors by far have been information technology and communication services, up about 180% and 160% respectively. Along with Nvidia, the tech sector is loaded with AI-exposed stocks that have surged, including Microsoft, Broadcom, and Palantir. Communication services includes big gainers over the past three years such as Google parent Alphabet, Facebook owner Meta Platforms, and Netflix. Investors have gravitated toward megacap stocks during the bull run, symbolized by the strong performance of the "Magnificent Seven," which comprises Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta. Some investors are hopeful the Fed's move to cut interest rates will pave the way for broader stock market leadership. The equal-weight S&P 500 – which is a proxy for the performance of the average stock in the index – has gained just 49% since the October 2022 low, significantly trailing the standard S&P 500, which is more heavily influenced by stocks with larger market values. The bull run has led to lofty valuations. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to about 23 times, based on 12-month earnings estimates for its constituents, around its highest level in five years and well above its 10-year average of 18.7, according to LSEG Datastream. The index's P/E ratio stood at 15.3 when it hit its cycle low on October 12, 2022. "Valuation is also a function of interest rates," Kourkafas said. "If, for whatever reason, inflation is sticky and we're not talking about the same level of expectations for rate cuts, maybe that changes the story."  ​ (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Alden Bentley and Rod Nickel)

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By Joyce Zhou MACAU (Reuters) -The National Basketball Association (NBA) and Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba announced on Thursday a multi-year partnership, as the league stages two games in Macau to mark its return to the Chinese market for the first time since 2019. The NBA is due to play two pre-season games in the Chinese special administrative region on Friday and Sunday, part of a five-year contract with Las Vegas Sands' Macau unit Sands China. The games mark the first time the NBA is playing in Macau, the world's largest gambling hub, and follows a years-long absence amid controversy over the 2019 Hong Kong protests. The Macau games aim to bolster the NBA's profile in China, where around 300 million people play basketball, at a time of rising political tensions between the United States and China. The announcement by Alibaba Group said it would provide artificial intelligence and cloud computing services with the NBA and enhance fan experiences on the NBA app in China. Alibaba Cloud will be the official cloud computing and AI partner of NBA China, it said. The NBA's absence followed a firestorm of controversy around comments made six years ago by the Houston Rockets' then general manager Daryl Morey, who posted a message on social media in support of Hong Kong's pro-democracy protests. In the aftermath, Beijing suspended the broadcast of NBA games, prompting corporate sponsors to flee and the league to suffer what it described at the time as dramatic financial consequences. Pre-season NBA games in China were also scrapped. NBA EXPERIENCE The NBA games are being held at Sands Venetian property along with a five-day free-to-enter music, fashion and technology exhibition showcasing the NBA brand. Shaquille O'Neal is among NBA celebrities attending the event, the league said. The Brooklyn Nets, owned by Alibaba chairman Joseph Tsai, will play the Phoenix Suns at sold-out games in the arena. Sands owner, the U.S. billionaire Adelson family, also own the Texas-based NBA team, the Dallas Mavericks. The casino operator announced its collaboration with the NBA in December 2024 and said it wanted to bring elite basketball directly to Chinese fans. Macau's casinos, which include Sands, Wynn Macau, SJM Holdings, MGM China, Galaxy Entertainment and Melco Resorts, have been mandated to increase their non-gaming businesses as a proportion of their overall business. They have pledged to collectively invest more than $13.5 billion in non-gambling infrastructure and projects over the next decade. Macau is the only place in China where Chinese citizens are legally allowed to gamble in casinos. A Portuguese colony until 1999, its economy remains heavily reliant on the casino industry, which contributes around 80% of government tax revenues. (Reporting by Joyce Zhou in Macau, Liam Mo in Beijing, Brenda Goh in Shanghai; Writing by Farah Master; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Kate Mayberry)

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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -Asian stock markets scored fresh highs on Thursday as investors doubled down on all things AI-related, while gold held atop $4,000 and the dollar retained its recent hefty gains. Oil prices dipped as geopolitical tensions eased a little on news that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire plan to end the two-year conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump said he might travel to Egypt this weekend to discuss further steps in the deal. In equity markets, a resumption of the bull run in AI-related tech saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach record highs as funds were again rewarded for buying the dips. "The AI Theme remains intact as we see another stream of multi-$bn investment come into the space," wrote analysts at JPMorgan in a note. "Investors can talk all they want about the 'circularity' of this AI investment cycle, but these daily headlines are being rewarded with strength until proven otherwise." They noted estimates for earnings growth in the tech sector had risen to 20.9% for the looming reporting season, from 15.9% back in June. Some 81% of the stocks in the tech sector have seen estimates increase, led by Nvidia and Apple. Earnings overall are expected to grow 8% for the third quarter, with revenue up 6.3%. A jump in tech pushed Japan's Nikkei up 1.5% and back near all-time peaks. Data showed offshore funds bought a net 2.5 trillion yen ($16.40 billion) worth of Japanese shares in the week through October 4. Stocks in Taiwan climbed 1.2% to a fresh record, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 0.3%. Chinese blue chips added 0.4% as they reopened from a week-long holiday. Beijing reported consumers spent 809 billion yuan ($113.52 billion) during the holiday, while taking 888 million trips. Beijing also announced new restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals and equipment that have been a sticking point in trade talks with the United States. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures steadied after Wednesday's gains. EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.2% while FTSE futures fell 0.5% and DAX futures 0.1%. FED STILL SEEN CUTTING Bond markets were largely unruffled by minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting that showed a majority of members cautioned about upside risks to inflation even as they sanctioned an easing in policy. Futures continue to imply a 94% chance of another quarter-point cut in November, and have 44 basis points of easing priced in by year-end. "While most Fed officials want to cut further, some participants want to approach further cuts with caution," economists at Citi wrote in a note. "We expect that further labour market weakening will push most Fed officials to support cutting the policy rate at each of the next four meetings." Yields on 10-year Treasuries were down a fraction at 4.115%, having also shrugged off a middling auction of new notes on Wednesday. In currencies, the dollar held near eight-month highs on the yen at 152.54, having surged 3.5% so far this week amid concerns about more Japanese government borrowing. The euro steadied at $1.1641, after touching a six-week low of $1.1598 overnight when data showed German industrial output suffered the biggest monthly fall in over three years in August. Investors were now waiting to see if French President Emmanuel Macron could name a new prime minister that would have any chance of hammering out a budget deal. Gold held at $4,037 an ounce, for a gain of 3.9% on the week so far. The metal has been buoyed by the prospect of a series of U.S. rate cuts, along with investor demand for assets that cannot be debased by governments and buying by central banks for reserves. There is also in part a desire to hedge against the risk of a sustained decline in the U.S. dollar and a selloff in bond markets as governments need to borrow ever more. [GOL/] Oil prices slipped as news of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire lessened one potential threat to supplies. [O/R] Brent dropped 0.6% to $65.89 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 0.7% to $62.12 per barrel. ($1 = 152.4800 yen) (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Sam Holmes)

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(Corrects to restore dropped word in brokerage name in penultimate paragraph) By Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON (Reuters) -New Zealand's central bank slashed its benchmark rate by an aggressive 50 basis points on Wednesday, surprising some in the markets as policymakers signalled concerns about the frail state of the economy and kept the door open for further easing. The New Zealand dollar and interest rate swaps tumbled in the wake of the move that took the official cash rate to over a three-year low of 2.5%, as investors bet on more stimulus in the coming months to shore up demand and buffer the economy from rising global headwinds. “The Committee reached consensus to reduce the official cash rate by 50 basis points to 2.5 percent,” the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said in its accompanying policy statement. “The Committee remains open to further reductions in the OCR as required for inflation to settle sustainably near the 2% target mid-point in the medium term.” The dovish stance will be a welcome relief for the New Zealand government and the country’s prime minister, Christopher Luxon, whose popularity has taken a sharp hit in recent months as the economic recovery he and his party campaigned on has failed to eventuate.   Luxon has said publicly he would like to see the cash rate lower to try and shake off the economic torpor, with business confidence worsening and households in a depressed mood as they fret about the rising cost of living and scarcity of jobs. The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll released earlier Wednesday found that the current government would not have enough seats to govern if an election was held today.  Finance Minister Nicola Willis said the rate cut is good news for growth, jobs and investment, adding: "We know many New Zealanders are still doing it tough."  The RBNZ decision went against 15 of 26 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll who had forecast it would cut the cash rate by 25 basis points.  However, the larger cut wasn't totally unexpected as the remaining 11 economists had picked a 50-bp reduction and markets were primed for the RBNZ to pull harder on its monetary policy levers to inject impetus to a weakened economy. The New Zealand dollar tumbled to six-month lows, losing 0.90% to $0.5745, while two-year interest rate swaps fell to 2.5251% from 2.6194% before the decision. The market is now fully pricing in a further 25-basis-point cut to 2.25%, and is ascribing a 60% chance of a 2.00% terminal cash rate.   “The RBNZ’s decision signals that the likelihood of inflation pressures being weaker than previously anticipated carried more weight than waiting to see how quickly the economy rebounds and what ripple effects come from the current spike in inflation,” ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said in a note. The central bank has cut rates by 300 basis points since August 2024, and with inflation within its target band of 1% to 3%, policymakers have leeway to lower borrowing costs further. TRUMP POLICIES ADD TO ECONOMIC WOES  Wednesday's policy review is Christian Hawkesby’s second-to-last meeting as RBNZ Governor, after the government last month appointed Swedish policymaker Anna Breman to the role starting December 1.     A global front-runner in withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus, the RBNZ lifted rates 525 basis points between October 2021 and September 2023 to curb inflation in the most aggressive tightening since the cash rate was introduced in 1999. The punishing borrowing costs, however, slammed the brakes on demand and tipped the economy into recession last year. Since then it has struggled to motor on, contracting by 0.9% in the second quarter in a shock result that fuelled bets of steeper rate cuts.   While trading partner growth has been resilient, it is expected to slow in part due to U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs and the government’s tight fiscal policy, hurting business confidence and pushing up unemployment. One challenge for the central bank is that inflation is expected to reach 3.0% in the third quarter.  However, in its statement on Wednesday, the RBNZ said spare capacity in the economy should see inflation return to near its mid-point in 2026. New Zealand is one of several countries to ease rates as inflation has moved lower, but its sharp reductions to borrowing costs contrast with a more cautious approach by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its counterpart in Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate steady last week as it flagged inflation concerns. And last month, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut for the year. Zoe Wallis, investment strategist at brokerage Forsyth Barr, is retaining her terminal rate forecast at 2.25% for now. However, she said "there is a chance that further easing beyond that level could be on the cards if inflation proves well contained and the economy fails to fire up convincingly in coming months." (Reporting by Lucy CraymerEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday after Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a plan to end the war in Gaza, easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, while the U.S. dollar's strength weighed on commodities. Brent crude futures were down 34 cents, or 0.51%, at $65.91 a barrel by 0413 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 38 cents, or 0.61%, to $62.17. "WTI crude is trading on the weaker side of the pendulum today due to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium triggered by the Israel-Hamas peace deal," OANDA's senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said. U.S. President Donald Trump said that Israel and Hamas had reached a long-sought deal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release under a plan for ending the two-year-old war in the Palestinian enclave. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene the government on Thursday to approve the ceasefire agreement. The war in Gaza has supported oil prices as investors have weighed the potential risk to global oil supply if the war were to develop into a wider regional conflict. Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, said the Gaza ceasefire is unlikely to change oil supply in the Middle East as OPEC+ has not hit its increased production targets. The group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, agreed on Sunday to a November output hike that was smaller than market expectations, easing oversupply concern. McCarthy also said the U.S. dollar's strength against the Japanese yen and euro is generally weighing on commodities. Dollar-denominated oil has become more expensive for investors holding other currencies. Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as sustaining sanctions against Russia. Meanwhile, total weekly U.S. petroleum products supplied, a proxy for U.S. oil consumption, rose last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022, showed a report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand began on a softer note in October as numerous consumption indicators, including container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles, truck toll mileage in Germany and container throughput in China, pointed to a moderation in activity. Global oil demand averaged 105.9 million bpd in the first seven days of October, expanding by 300,000 bpd from last year's level and 90,000 bpd lower than JP Morgan's estimates, its analysts said in a client note. The pace of global crude and products inventory build has also slowed, expanding by 8 million barrels last week, the slowest increase in the past five weeks, they said. (Reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Georgina McCartney in Houston; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

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(Reuters) -The United States has approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. (Reporting by Yazhini M V in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

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(Reuters) -The United States has approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. (Reporting by Yazhini M V in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

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By Ishaan Arora (Reuters) -Gold took a breather from a record run on Thursday, as investors booked profits a day after bullion breached the key $4,000-per-ounce level for the first time ever on economic and geopolitical uncertainties and hopes of further U.S. rate cuts this year. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,020.99 per ounce as of 0302 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,059.05 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.7% to $4,040.70. On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's plan for Gaza, a ceasefire and hostage deal that could open the way to ending Israel's bloody two-year-old war, which the U.N. says constituted a genocide. "You can't look past the significance of the phase one deal between Israel and Hamas (given) one of the reasons why gold's been moving higher is geopolitical risks, but it's probably just a handy excuse to take profits after hitting another record," said Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials agreed that risks to the U.S. job market were high enough to warrant a rate cut, but remained wary amid stubborn inflation, per minutes of the September 16–17 meeting released on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point cut each in October and December, with probabilities of 94% and 79%, respectively, per the CME FedWatch tool. Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Global markets struggled this week amid political turmoil in Japan and France, coupled with an ongoing U.S. government shutdown, sparking a flight to safety in gold. Gold has climbed 54% year-to-date on strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Fund (ETFs), a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand. Elsewhere, spot silver lost 0.1% to $48.83 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $49.57 on Wednesday. Platinum slipped 0.8% to $1,649.81 and palladium dropped 0.1% to $1,447.81. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)

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