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By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist  Well, that time out in the 'everything rally' didn't last long. Wall Street and precious metals hit new highs on Wednesday as investors shrugged off any potential reason to play safe, such as the U.S. government shutdown, and resumed buying.    More on that below. In my column today I look at the amount of foreign-owned Treasuries held at the Fed, which has just fallen to a 13-year low, and what this might tell us about 'de-dollarization' and overseas demand for U.S. assets. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points: * Let it loose! Policymakers around the world are engaging in a remarkable drive to juice growth, simultaneously revving up both their monetary and fiscal engines to full tilt. What makes it so extraordinary is the economic and financial backdrop it is being done against. A U.S. capex boom in AI is driving solid growth and earnings expectations, inflation in much of the developed world is above the 2% target, financial conditions are the loosest in years, public debt dynamics are deteriorating, and many markets – stocks, gold and crypto – are at record highs. It's safe to say, the easing push is not without risks. * Is Japan trailblazing again? Zooming in on that a bit more, and the focus settles on the easy policy king: Japan. From 'NIRP' and 'ZIRP' to yield curve control, from QE to record public debt, Japan in recent decades has single-mindedly pursued policies often considered unorthodox, unworkable or unrepeatable elsewhere. Yet where Japan has led, the developed world has usually followed, and the emergence of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi as the country's next prime minister could be the latest example of this. "Japan is once again trailblazing the path for western markets," says SocGen's Albert Edwards. * Wait a minute Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting released show that division among policymakers on the need for further interest rate cuts is perhaps deeper than first thought, or was previously indicated by Chair Jerome Powell. "Most participants" thought it appropriate to lower rates towards a more neutral level due to labor market risks, but at the same time "a majority of participants" emphasized the upside risks to inflation, which has been running above target for over four years. Maybe two more rate cuts this year aren't a slam dunk? Fed custody holdings ring 'de-dollarization' alarm The amount of U.S. Treasuries held at the New York Fed on behalf of global central banks has slumped to its lowest in over a decade, casting renewed doubt on foreign appetite for U.S. sovereign debt and other dollar-denominated assets. This may seem a little surprising. Recent data, including the Treasury International Capital and International Monetary Fund's 'Cofer' foreign exchange reserves reports, show overseas demand for Treasuries and dollar assets holding up pretty well. These two data sets are the gold standard measurements for U.S. capital flows and global FX reserves. But they are released with long lags – the last set of TIC data is for the month of July, and the latest Cofer numbers are for the second quarter. The New York Fed custody holdings figures aren't as comprehensive – central banks can hold their Treasury bonds elsewhere – but they are weekly, which in the world of cross-border, central bank capital flows is virtually 'real time'.  And right now, these custody holdings are falling. Fast. The latest figures show that the value of U.S. Treasuries held at the New York Fed on behalf of foreign central banks is $2.78 trillion. That's the lowest since August 2012, and down $130 billion in just two months. Indeed, it's notable that peak holdings over the last year and a half, of $2.95 trillion, were in March-April this year, coinciding with peak market volatility around U.S. President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff chaos. According to this temperature check, foreign central banks seem to have cooled on Treasuries since then.  Fed custody holdings are only one measure of overseas demand for Treasuries. Could they be a precursor for upcoming TIC and Cofer reports?  DISSECTING DOLLAR SHARE OF FX RESERVES The latest TIC data show that foreign central banks bought a net $17.1 billion of U.S. Treasuries in July. That brings net purchases in the first seven months of this year to $38 billion, according to JPMorgan analysts, some $4 billion more than the same period in 2024.  Meanwhile, the latest Cofer figures show that, adjusting for the dollar's steep depreciation, central banks were actually net buyers of dollar reserves in the April-June period. Analysts at Deutsche Bank estimate central banks' purchases of dollar-denominated securities in the quarter – much of which will have been U.S. Treasury bills and notes – nudged $50 billion.  These are modest sums when set against the $12 trillion global FX reserves universe and $29 trillion U.S. Treasuries market. But they still point to consistent demand for Treasuries from reserve managers, and pour cold water on the 'de-dollarization' narrative. That's the notion that the world, alarmed at many of U.S. President Donald Trump's policy agendas and America's deteriorating fiscal health, is reducing its exposure to dollar-denominated assets. The dollar has weakened significantly, but overseas demand for U.S. stocks and bonds remains solid, especially from private sector investors. "Latest data releases confirm there is no substantial evidence of an abrupt rotation away from U.S. Treasuries after Trump's April tariff announcements," JPMorgan analysts wrote on Friday.  But as noted, the TIC and Cofer figures are dated. We are now in October, and the Fed's weekly custody holdings suggest there may have been a shift since the summer. Standard Bank's Steve Barrow says the decline in custody holdings raises a red flag because it has come at a time of notable dollar weakness. Rapid declines in custody holdings more often occur when the dollar surges because central banks are forced to sell some of their Treasuries to raise cash for FX intervention. "The fact that these custody holdings have fallen so fast might be a sign that central banks have become less enamoured of the Treasury market – and the dollar – in recent months," Barrow wrote on Monday.  Weekly data can be volatile, and there are much more comprehensive assessments of central banks' appetite for U.S. Treasuries. But could Fed custody holdings be the canary in the 'de-dollarization' coal mine? What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.  Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever;)

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(Reuters) -Disney said on Wednesday it will raise prices for certain tickets to its theme parks in the U.S. during key holidays such as the Thanksgiving week and New Year's Eve. Prices for one-day tickets to Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Florida, will exceed the current $199 top price point, beginning with the holidays in 2026, the company said in a statement to Reuters. The starting and high-end price for tickets on sale through to October next year will remain unchanged.  Out of the seven ticket tiers at the Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, California, five will see price hikes of 3% or less, the lowest increase in several years. The lowest-priced ticket will remain unchanged at $104. Currently, the cost of entry to Disneyland for the week of Thanksgiving — from November 24 to November 29 — as well as for the Christmas and New Year's week is $224, according to its website. "Our commitment to creating magical experiences for everyone remains at the heart of what we do — and that will never change," Disney officials said in the statement. (Reporting by Juby Babu in Mexico City; Editing by Alan Barona)

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By Mike Colias and David Shepardson (Reuters) -General Motors is scrapping a program aimed at allowing its dealers to continue offering a $7,500 tax credit for several months on electric-vehicle leases following the September 30 expiration of the federal subsidy, the company said on Wednesday. Toward the end of last month, GM devised a plan to have its in-house lending arm initiate the purchase of EVs in its dealers’ inventory. The company planned to apply for the federal $7,500 credit on those cars and then roll that money into EV lease terms for customers through the end of the year. GM opted to kill the program after concerns were raised about it by Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, a former car dealer who is active in auto policy, a person briefed on the matter told Reuters. “After further consideration, we have decided not to claim the tax credit,” the company said in a statement to Reuters on Wednesday, declining to elaborate on the reason for its decision. Moreno told Reuters in an interview he was happy with GM's decision to scrap the EV tax-credit plan. "The EV subsidies ended September 30 and I'm happy that every car company" is going to abide by that. "I look forward to working with GM," he said. "We're putting a lot of policies in place to protect our domestic auto industry." The idea behind the program was to ease the impact of the expiration of the tax credit on dealers, who worried they would be stuck with EVs that would be tough to sell. GM had planned to apply for the credit on tens of thousands of EVs in dealer stocks, according to people familiar with the plan. Ford rolled out a similar program ahead of the tax-credit expiration. It is unclear if Ford is continuing its program. A spokesperson declined to comment. GM had planned to claim the credit on roughly 20,000 EVs that were on dealership lots or being shipped to stores, people familiar with the matter said. Its finance arm, GM Financial, began making down payments on those vehicles before the deadline to qualify for the subsidy on each of those cars, the sources said. In its statement on Wednesday, the company said it would "fund the incentive lease terms" through the end of October. The formula for determining the down payments that GM Financial paid to dealers on those EVs was 5% of the maximum price for each car. For example, GM Financial would have made a down payment of about $6,300 for two Chevrolet Blazer EVs, which top out in the mid-$60,000s, according to documents GM provided to dealers outlining the terms. GM scrambled to put together the program just a few days before the September 30 tax-credit expiration, and outlined the details on a call with dealers on September 29, three sources said. GM officials had caught wind of a similar program that Ford was putting in place for its dealers, the sources said. Auto executives, dealers and analysts have said they expect EV sales to plummet in the wake of the tax credit’s disappearance. A consumer rush to take advantage of the subsidy helped drive record electric-car sales in September. (Editing by Mike Colias, Mark Porter, Chris Reese, Marguerita Choy and Nick Zieminski)

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By Stephen Culp NEW YORK (Reuters) -Technology shares boosted U.S. stocks to a higher close on Wednesday as investors, lacking economic data during the government shutdown, looked to minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting for clues to the outlook for interest rate cuts through year-end. The tech-laden Nasdaq was out front, boosted by the artificial intelligence-related megacaps that have led market gains so far this year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq eked out new all-time closing highs. Chip stocks were clear outperformers, while energy, consumer staples and homebuilders were the laggards, as a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed home loan demand dipped 4.7% last week despite easing interest rates. "The theme continues to be aggressive growth, with a constant supply of deal announcements, one after the other that are related to the AI space," said Bill Merz, head of Capital Market Research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Minneapolis. "Anything attached to AI is garnering a significant amount of attention." Amid continuing euphoria surrounding AI, mounting U.S. and geopolitical uncertainty has pushed gold prices above the $4,000 per ounce threshold as investors flock to the safe-haven metal as a hedge against growing risks. "We’ve seen in the last few years that stocks and safe havens can work in conjunction with each other," Merz added. "A part of that comes from this dual reality that … fundamentals, for now, are supporting higher than normal valuation, and simultaneously, deficit spending has to be financed by additional debt." The U.S. government shutdown entered its eighth day, and a congressional stalemate appeared to suggest market participants will lack official economic indicators for the immediate future, leaving markets with little to go on until third-quarter earnings season kicks off next week. In the absence of data, investors looked to third-quarter earnings season to get underway next week and the minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) for clues as to the central bank's intentions regarding interest rate cuts. Those minutes showed a divided committee, with policymakers concerned about rising labor market risks but still wary of inflation. And while "most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year," the timing and pace of further moves remained an open question. "The topical discussion is about the extent of Fed cuts and how restrictive or not policy is," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina. "More broadly, the Fed is definitely not in a great position without public sector economic data as (the shutdown) continues to drag on, which really just makes policymakers' already challenging job even tougher." According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 39.58 points, or 0.58%, to end at 6,753.48 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 255.02 points, or 1.11%, to 23,041.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.68 points, or 0.01%, to 46,608.66. Datadog rose after Bernstein raised its price target on the cloud security firm, while Intercontinental Exchange fell after Barclays cut its price target on the stock. Fair Isaac Corp fell after credit bureau Equifax said it plans to offer cheaper mortgage credit scores. Surging gold prices helped U.S.-listed shares of gold miners Newmont and Gold Fields gain ground. Dell jumped after multiple brokerages raised their price targets for the stock. Freeport-McMoRan advanced in the wake of Citigroup's upgrade to "buy" from "neutral". Joby Aviation slid after the electric air taxi maker on Tuesday priced a $514 million share sale at a 10.9% discount to its last closing price. AMD extended its gains for the third consecutive day.  (Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additonal reporting by Chibiuke Oguh in New York, and Niket Nishant and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)

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PANAMA CITY (Reuters) -The Panama Canal said revenues rose around 14.4% in its fiscal year 2025 to $5.7 billion, based on preliminary and unaudited figures, authorities said in a statement on Wednesday. The canal also reported that vessel transits increased 19.3% year-on-year to 13,404 during the 12-month period, which ended on September 30. Container and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) segments drove revenue growth, while bulk carrier traffic continued to recover. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes fell short of expectations due to global freight market conditions, the statement said. Authorities said the results leave the canal in a strong financial position ahead of planned investments starting in 2026 to expand capacity and maintain competitiveness. (Reporting by Elida Moreno; Writing by Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Kylie Madry)

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By Sheila Dang HOUSTON (Reuters) -Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told employees on Wednesday that he believes the company will outperform publicly stated financial targets given to investors following the acquisition of smaller oil producer Hess. The No. 2 U.S. oil producer closed its $55 billion purchase of Hess in July after triumphing in a lengthy arbitration battle against larger rival Exxon Mobil. Upon closing the deal, Chevron said it expected $1 billion in synergies and raised its free cash flow guidance for 2026 to $12.5 billion from $10 billion. "In our last number of acquisitions that we've done, once we've closed the deal, we actually find more value," Wirth said during an internal town hall meeting, audio of which was heard by Reuters. "I fully expect the (Hess) deal will meet and exceed what we've committed externally." Hess' crown jewel was its 30% stake in the prolific Stabroek Block in Guyana, an oilfield that Exxon operates and is estimated to hold at least 11 billion barrels of oil. Completing the acquisition gave Chevron a much-needed boost to its oil and gas reserves and future growth prospects. Chevron will host an investor day on November 12 to formally provide updated guidance to shareholders.  PLANS TO POWER DATA CENTERS Wirth said the company was continuing to examine possible projects to power large data centers in the U.S. when asked by Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Laura Lane about conversations he held with Big Tech executives like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg.  "They need a lot of power," he responded. "The scale of it is almost hard to describe." The boom in artificial intelligence has driven electricity demand to new heights, and Chevron is looking at projects that would not be connected to the existing power grid that Wirth said is fragile and unable to handle the required power loads. 'MORE CONSISTENT' FOCUS ON SAFETY NEEDED The meeting with employees took place days after a large fire broke out at Chevron's 285,000 barrel-per-day El Segundo refinery in southern California. There were no injuries in the fire.  Internal data shows that staff are not consistent in completing safety checklists before beginning work, Wirth told employees, adding that fatalities this year have been mostly among the company's contractor workforce and that Chevron needed to ensure they were properly trained. "What we need is more consistent and disciplined execution of those processes," he said. Asked about the town hall, a Chevron spokesperson said “our talented workforce is an essential part of the ongoing success of our company, and we engage regularly to align on strategic priorities and our shared purpose to safely provide affordable, reliable, ever cleaner energy that enables human progress." (Reporting by Sheila Dang in Houston; Editing by Nathan Crooks and Marguerita Choy)

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By Nell Mackenzie and Anirban Sen LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -Hedge funds returned 1.3% in September, with managers in Europe, Asia and the Middle East outperforming their North American rivals, according to a JPMorgan client note on Thursday that was seen by Reuters on Friday. Global equities in September climbed 3.4%. An index of developed market sovereign bonds rose around 0.7% last month. The JPMorgan note, which tracks hedge fund trading, said positioning in U.S. stocks was only "somewhat bullish," indicating an expectation for equities to rise.  Crowding in the biggest "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, which include Apple, Amazon.com and Nvidia, remained near historical highs, the note said.  In Europe, stock-pickers tended to bet that equities would rise. But multi-strategy funds – those that trade many strategies – and quantitative funds, which use algorithms, tended to wager that stock prices would decline. In Asia, where stocks rose, hedge funds had more bets on a decline than a rise, the note said. Bridgewater, with $92.1 billion in assets under management, notched a 6% monthly gain in its Pure Alpha fund to September 29. From the beginning of the year until September 29, Bridgewater's Pure Alpha, Asia Total Return, All Weather, and China Total Return funds posted returns of 26.2%, 32.5%, 15.3%, and 28.4%, respectively. British hedge fund Marshall Wace posted returns in September of 1.32%, up 8.04% for the year so far in its Eureka Fund, a source said. The $79 billion hedge fund's Market Neutral Tops fund returned 0.45% in September and was up 13.66% for the year, the source added. Systematic stock-trading hedge funds, such as Marshall Wace, are up more than 13% for 2025 so far, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. Multi-strategy funds remained largely flat on the month, apart from the $28 billion Balyasny Asset Management, which added 1.3% in September to its annual return so far this year of 10%, another source with knowledge of the matter said.  (Reporting by Nell Mackenzie in London, Anirban Sen in New York and Summer Zhen in Hong Kong; Editing by Amanda Cooper, Barbara Lewis and Paul Simao)

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By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK (Reuters) -Major stock indexes rose on Wednesday as technology shares gained, while gold extended its recent rally above $4,000 an ounce as a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts drove demand for the safe-haven asset. Gold, which is traditionally seen as a store of value during times of instability, is up about 50% year-to-date, after gaining 27% in 2024. Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,050.24 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures GCv1 for December delivery also settled 1.7% higher at $4,070.5. Silver also climbed to a record high. Shares of gold miners also rose, including U.S.-listed shares of Gold Fields, up 3.4%. The Japanese yen reached its weakest level since mid-February against the dollar as investors worried about an increase in fiscal spending in Japan, while the euro eased on ongoing political uncertainty in France. On Wall Street, stocks rebounded from Tuesday's declines, with technology shares leading the way higher. Nvidia shares were up 1.9%. "It's rebounding nicely, led by Nvidia and AI-related stocks. It comes down to investors have been optimistic since April, and that optimism continues to be expressed in spite of a government shutdown, a slowing employment market or any other red flags that would normally detract investors," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. Investors have been without most U.S. economic data as the federal government remains shut. Minutes released Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting showed a divided committee, in which policymakers were concerned about rising labor market risks but remained wary of inflation. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 16.77 points, or 0.04%, to 46,619.98, the S&P 500 rose 31.71 points, or 0.47%, to 6,746.46 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 197.28 points, or 0.87%, to 22,985.65. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 2.84 points, or 0.29%, to 994.97. European shares climbed to record highs, powered by strong gains in French and Spanish stocks. The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.8%, closing at its highest level, while French stocks jumped 1.1% and Spanish stocks touched their highest mark since 2007. In France, caretaker Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said that he saw a path to forming a new government but that the "final stretch" would be difficult, adding that it was possible France could have a new premier in the next 48 hours. Lecornu, France's fifth prime minister in two years, tendered his and his government's resignation on Monday. The euro was off its earlier lows and last down 0.27% at $1.1623. In Japan, the surprise election of Sanae Takaichi to lead the country's ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday has dented the yen on expectations of greater government stimulus. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.49% to 152.64. It earlier reached 152.99, the highest since February 14. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was flat at 4.127%, from 4.127% late on Tuesday. Oil prices rose. Traders expected a lack of progress on a Ukraine peace deal to keep sanctions in place against Moscow. U.S. crude rose 82 cents to settle at $62.55 a barrel and Brent gained 80 cents to settle at $66.25. (Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper and Joice Alves in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Sam Holmes, Sharon Singleton, Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Alexandra Hudson and Diane Craft)

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By Mike Colias and David Shepardson (Reuters) -General Motors is scrapping a program aimed at allowing its dealers to continue offering a $7,500 tax credit for several months on electric-vehicle leases following the September 30 expiration of the federal subsidy, the company said on Wednesday. Toward the end of last month, GM devised a plan to have its in-house lending arm initiate the purchase of EVs in its dealers’ inventory. The company planned to apply for the federal $7,500 credit on those cars and then roll that money into EV lease terms for customers through the end of the year. GM opted to kill the program after concerns were raised about it by Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, a former car dealer who is active in auto policy, a person briefed on the matter told Reuters. “After further consideration, we have decided not to claim the tax credit,” the company said in a statement to Reuters on Wednesday, declining to elaborate on the reason for its decision. Moreno told Reuters in an interview he was happy with GM's decision to scrap the EV tax-credit plan. "The EV subsidies ended September 30 and I'm happy that every car company" is going to abide by that. "I look forward to working with GM," he said. "We're putting a lot of policies in place to protect our domestic auto industry." The idea behind the program was to ease the impact of the expiration of the tax credit on dealers, who worried they would be stuck with EVs that would be tough to sell. GM had planned to apply for the credit on tens of thousands of EVs in dealer stocks, according to people familiar with the plan. Ford rolled out a similar program ahead of the tax-credit expiration. It is unclear if Ford is continuing its program. A spokesperson declined to comment. GM had planned to claim the credit on roughly 20,000 EVs that were on dealership lots or being shipped to stores, people familiar with the matter said. Its finance arm, GM Financial, began making down payments on those vehicles before the deadline to qualify for the subsidy on each of those cars, the sources said. In its statement on Wednesday, the company said it would "fund the incentive lease terms" through the end of October. The formula for determining the down payments that GM Financial paid to dealers on those EVs was 5% of the maximum price for each car. For example, GM Financial would have made a down payment of about $6,300 for two Chevrolet Blazer EVs, which top out in the mid-$60,000s, according to documents GM provided to dealers outlining the terms. GM scrambled to put together the program just a few days before the September 30 tax-credit expiration, and outlined the details on a call with dealers on September 29, three sources said. GM officials had caught wind of a similar program that Ford was putting in place for its dealers, the sources said. Auto executives, dealers and analysts have said they expect EV sales to plummet in the wake of the tax credit’s disappearance. A consumer rush to take advantage of the subsidy helped drive record electric-car sales in September. (Editing by Mike Colias, Mark Porter, Chris Reese, Marguerita Choy and Nick Zieminski)

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By Karen Brettell (Reuters) -The Japanese yen reached its weakest level since mid-February against the dollar on Wednesday on rising concerns about an increase in fiscal spending in Japan, while the euro fell on political uncertainty in France. The dollar has also likely benefited from a lack of government economic data as the federal government remains shut. That data would otherwise add to market volatility and may show a weakening economy, analysts said. The surprise election of Sanae Takaichi to Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Saturday has dented the yen on expectations of greater government stimulus. “The market is running with the idea that the Takaichi government would be pursuing policies that are more similar to what we saw during the Abenomics years. In other words, expansionary fiscal policy and less restrictive monetary policy. But at the moment it's obviously still an open question what the policies will be,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX and macro strategist at UBS in New York. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe adopted expansive policies to combat Japan's long-term deflation and stimulate economic growth after 2012. Against the yen, the dollar was last up 0.53% at 152.7. It earlier reached 152.99, the highest since February 14, and has risen from 147.44 on Friday. "The yen will likely weaken until there is clarity on FX and bond issuance policies," Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes said in a report on Wednesday. "Anything that helps the Japanese economy grow, would eventually be very yen positive. The yen will only fall while we remain in an information vacuum, about both the U.S. economy and Japanese government policies." The lack of U.S. government economic data that might point to a slowing economy is helping the dollar gain on peers. “Once the focus shifted to developments outside of the U.S. and then there's no kind of negative drag on the dollar from potentially weaker U.S. data, then the dollar is doing well,” said Serebriakov. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting released on Wednesday showed that officials agreed that risks to the U.S. job market had increased enough to warrant an interest rate cut, but many remained wary of high inflation. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, and traders are pricing in 78% odds of an additional cut in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The euro was last down 0.33% at $1.1616 and reached $1.1597, the lowest since August 27. French caretaker Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Wednesday a deal could eventually be reached on a 2026 budget despite the country's political crisis.  France's fifth prime minister in two years, Lecornu tendered his and his government's resignation on Monday, just hours after announcing the cabinet line-up, making it the shortest-lived administration in modern France. The euro pared losses after Lecornu also said on Wednesday that President Emmanuel Macron could be in a position to nominate a new prime minister in the next 48 hours. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.33% versus the greenback to $0.5779 and reached $0.5735, the lowest since April 11. New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points on Wednesday as policymakers signalled concerns about the frail state of the economy and kept the door open for further easing. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.26% to $123,551.56 but remained below the record $126,223.18 reached on Monday. (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Aurora Ellis)

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