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By Stefano Rebaudo (Reuters) -The dollar edged up against the yen but was flat versus the euro on Monday as investors shifted their focus to political developments in Japan and the euro area, while lingering concerns about U.S. credit risks kept weighing on sentiment. The yen weakened as hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi is almost certain to become Japan’s first female primeminister following a decisive parliamentary vote on Tuesday.  Her expected premiership, backed by a new coalition with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party, has raised investor concerns over potential fiscal expansion, which could weigh on the Japanese currency. “Market participants will now be watching closely to see what fiscal plans are put together by the new coalition government,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG. “Japan Innovation Party’s own fiscal plans have been described as ‘moderately expansionary’,” he added. The dollar was up 0.1% to 150.73 yen, after hitting 151.20 earlier in the session. Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata, who voted against keeping rates steady in September, reiterated on Monday his case for resuming rate hikes, providing some support for the Japanese currency.  Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock index closed more than 3% higher, hitting an all-time peak on expectations of an expansionary fiscal policy. [.T] The BOJ next decides monetary policy on October 30, with market-implied odds of a quarter-point rate increase at 23%, according to LSEG data. The euro edged higher against the dollar as political tensions in France eased, but investor caution lingered. Markets have yet to fully price out French risk from the euro, with the government’s decision to freeze pension reform offering only a temporary political breather while complicating already fragile budget talks. The euro was flat at $1.1653. “This week the focus should stay on the U.S., and a further souring of credit sentiment could send the euro on a path to $1.180,” said Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at ING. Market participants are closely watching Wall Street futures, which were up 0.34%. U.S. stock indexes ended higher on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said his proposed 100% tariffs on China would not be sustainable, while upbeat quarterly results from regional banks helped ease concerns over credit risks. The U.S. dollar index, a measure of its value relative to a basket of other major foreign currencies, rose 0.05% to 98.58. It hit 98.025 on Friday, its lowest level since October 6. Economists warned that the dollar's resilience will be tested on multiple fronts. "One, the government shutdown is hurting economic activity, both directly and indirectly," said Klaus Baader, global chief economist at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking (SGCIB), adding U.S.-China tensions were a second major concern. "Three, the (import) tariffs that are already in effect continue to feed through, slowing real household income growth and weighing on corporate margins," he said. Barclays flagged that, with no obvious catalyst to end the federal government shutdown in the next few weeks, the stoppage may extend well into November, when political and economic pressures should intensify.  The Australian dollar rose 0.1% to $0.6491 on Monday, cheered by data from top trade partner China showing its economy reasonably resilient to U.S. tariffs. Official data on Monday showed China's economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter, to top forecasts, while industrial output also beat with a rise of 6.5%. Although the 4.8% annual growth rate marked the weakest pace in a year, it kept the country on track to meet its official growth target of around 5%. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Sam Holmes and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

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By Polina Devitt LONDON (Reuters) -Large flows of silver from the U.S. and China to London's spot market in the past week are easing a liquidity squeeze in the world's largest over-the-counter precious metals trading hub, traders and analysts said. A shortage of available metal in the London market helped drive silver prices to a premium over U.S. Comex futures a week ago, making deliveries by airplane – usually reserved for much more expensive gold – profitable for sellers. "The major pressure is done for now," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. He estimated that around 15 million-20 million troy ounces (311-467 metric tons) of U.S.-based metal had arrived in London over the past week. SILVER PRICES, LONDON BORROWING RATES BOTH HIT RECORD Another source familiar with the matter said at least 1,000 tons of silver had gone into London vaults from the U.S. and China. As tightness in the London market coincided with surging gold prices and strong buying in India, benchmark silver prices hit a record $54.47 per troy ounce on Friday. They were just below $52 on Monday. [GOL/] Meanwhile, short-term silver borrowing rates in London eased by Friday from record highs seen on October 10. London vaults held 24,581 tons of both allocated and unallocated silver, valued at $36.5 billion, as of end-September, the London Bullion Market Association said. According to Morgan Stanley Commodities Strategist Amy Gower, most London inventories are "spoken for" by silver-backed exchange-traded funds. Consultancy Metals Focus estimates that 83% of silver held in London vaults had been allocated to ETFs as of end-September. About 697 tons of silver has left Comex warehouses in the U.S. since stocks there hit a record high of 16,543 tons (531.9 million troy ounces) on October 3. Comex inventories surged earlier this year due to uncertainty over U.S. import tariffs. Further appetite for U.S. stocks outflows depends on the results of a U.S. probe into potential import tariffs on critical minerals, which the market expects this month. UK COMPETES WITH INDIA FOR SUPPLY A China-focused precious metals trader said that about 100-150 tons were on their way out of China, the world's second-largest silver producer after Mexico, as of the last week. Not all the Chinese metal was heading to London, he said, as Britain had to compete with India, the world's biggest consumer, which is also experiencing a shortage of available supply due to its festive season. "Premiums in India have climbed to unprecedented levels, prompting increased air freight," Metals Focus said. Silver inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 249 tons last week to 920 tons, the lowest since May. That was the largest weekly outflow in 11 years. (Reporting by Polina Devitt; Editing by Jan Harvey)

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By Linda Pasquini and Leo Marchandon (Reuters) -Gucci-owner Kering has agreed to sell its beauty business to L'Oreal for 4 billion euros ($4.7 billion) in a strategic shift by new CEO Luca de Meo, who is trying to cut the luxury group's debt and refocus on its fashion business. WHAT IS THIS SALE ABOUT? The sale, which includes fragrance line Creed and long-term fragrance licences for Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga and Gucci, is a big step in cutting Kering's debt, a key investor concern. "The proceeds will strengthen the balance sheet and support deleveraging, adding to the 1 billion euro reduction in net debt already achieved in the first half of 2025," Juliane Barthold and Stoyan Toshev from Frankfurt-based brokerage Metzler told Reuters in an email. Royalties from these brand licenses will ensure a continuing income stream from the beauty segment for Kering, they added. Kering's net debt was 9.5 billion euros at the end of June. It also had 6 billion euros of long-term lease liabilities. Kering did not give any detail on the deal's impact on its debt. L'Oreal and Kering agreed to set up a 50/50 joint venture to explore further business opportunities beyond cosmetics. KERING STRATEGIC U-TURN Kering set up its beauty business in 2023 after buying Creed for 3.5 billion euros in an effort to diversify and reduce its reliance on the Gucci brand, which makes up most of its profit.  But it has struggled to ramp up the business, posting a 60 million euro operating loss for the first half of 2025. Kering is also battling declining growth at Gucci, which has been hit by slowing demand in the key Chinese market. Gucci made up 44.5% of its revenue and 63% of its operating income in 2024. Sarah Thirion, an analyst at Paris-based Midcap, said in a note to investors that Kering was "demonstrating strategic realism", adding: "(It) must choose its battles, and beauty is clearly no longer one of them". DE MEO FIRMLY IN THE DRIVING SEAT The sale marks a shift by CEO De Meo, backtracking on one of the big strategic pivots of recent years by his predecessor Francois-Henri Pinault, whose family controls Kering. De Meo, who took over as CEO in September, told shareholders he planned to take some difficult decisions to cut Kering's debt, including rationalising and reorganising where necessary. Kering has also postponed a plan to fully acquire Italian fashion brand Valentino, and aims to sell stakes in its real estate to raise cash. "This highlights that Luca de Meo has the mandate to make big changes and is acting quickly to make things happen," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a research note. WHAT'S NEXT FROM DE MEO? "Luca de Meo has already laid the foundations for his ascendancy. He will certainly not fail to act quickly on the excessively high operating costs, which, together with the decline in sales, have contributed to the decline," Midcap's Thirion told Reuters in an email. Meanwhile, the joint venture will mean Kering benefits from L'Oreal's beauty expertise, Barthold and Toshev said. "We are awaiting more details from the strategy in spring 2026, which we expect to boost the operating performance further," they added. Kering is set to publish its third-quarter results on Wednesday, after the market close in Paris. ($1 = 0.8575 euros) (Reporting by Leo Marchandon and Linda Pasquini in Gdansk; editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak and Alexander Smith)

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By Raphael Satter and AJ Vicens WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A more than year-long digital intrusion into cybersecurity company F5, publicized last week and blamed on Chinese spies, has defenders across the industry hunting for signs of compromise among the many corporate networks that use its products. Several worry that more disclosures are coming. So far, little is known about the scope of the hack beyond statements from F5 that its source code and sensitive information about software vulnerabilities were stolen. The company's website says it serves more than four in five Fortune 500 companies in some capacity, and U.S. officials have said that federal networks were among those targeted in the hack's aftermath and have urged immediate action. That extensive presence alone has triggered widespread unease. F5's stock tumbled 12 percent last Thursday, the day it published a host of fixes for previously vulnerable products, although it rebounded slightly by the end of the week. Several cybersecurity executives and analysts compared the hack at F5 to the extraordinary intrusion at the software company SolarWinds discovered in December 2020. That company, whose Orion software was used for network monitoring, became the unwitting springboard into a number of highly sensitive networks after its source code was tampered with. Around a dozen government departments were eventually breached in the wide-ranging spy operation. Just like SolarWinds, which was little known in the consumer market before the hack, F5 has a host of tech equipment and services – load balancers, content delivery networks and firewalls – that typically play low-profile but critical roles in directing, managing and filtering organizations' internet traffic. "I'm not equating this to the SolarWinds attack, but I'm equating it to the fact that people never hear of it, but it's in everybody's network," said Michael Sikorski, the chief technology officer at Palo Alto Networks' threat intelligence-focused Unit 42. "When we're talking about 80 percent of the Fortune 500, we're talking about banks, law firms, tech companies, you name it." Sikorski said the F5 hackers stole source code and undisclosed vulnerability information, potentially giving them the ability to develop tools for cyberespionage in a tight time frame. Bob Huber, chief security officer of cybersecurity firm Tenable, said he too had SolarWinds in mind as he tried to make sense of what was going on at F5. "As of right now, this is not SolarWinds," he told Reuters, noting that F5 has said it had "no evidence of modification to our software supply chain." Still, Huber said there were signs that more unwelcome disclosures lie ahead, given the paucity of information about the breach and the urgency with which the government was moving to remediate it, via an October 15 emergency directive and a public warning that unnamed federal networks were being targeted by a "nation-state cyber threat actor." "We're waiting for the other shoe to drop," he said. While no other victims of the F5 breach have been publicly identified, cybersecurity firm Greynoise Intelligence, which monitors internet scanning and attack activity, has found hints that an unknown actor was searching out F5 devices on the internet starting about a month ago. Greynoise detected a major spike in scanning activity focused on F5 beginning in mid-September, according to Glenn Thorpe, the company's senior director of security research and detection engineering. "That implies someone somewhere knew something," Thorpe said. (Reporting by Raphael Satter and AJ Vicens; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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(Reuters) -The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Monday it has opened a preliminary probe into about 2,000 Waymo self-driving vehicles after reports that the company's robotaxis may have failed to follow traffic safety laws around stopped school buses. The probe is the latest federal review of self-driving systems as regulators scrutinize how driverless technologies interact with pedestrians, cyclists and other road users. NHTSA said the Office of Defects Investigation opened the review after flagging a media report describing an incident in which a Waymo autonomous vehicle did not remain stationary when approaching a school bus with its red lights flashing, stop arm deployed and crossing control arm extended. The report said the Waymo vehicle initially stopped beside the bus then maneuvered around its front, passing the extended stop arm and crossing control arm while students were disembarking. A Waymo spokesperson said the company has “already developed and implemented improvements related to stopping for school buses and will land additional software updates in our next software release.” The company added "driving safely around children has always been one of Waymo's highest priorities. In the event referenced, the vehicle approached the school bus from an angle where the flashing lights and stop sign were not visible and drove slowly around the front of the bus before driving past it, keeping a safe distance from children." NHTSA said the vehicle involved was equipped with Waymo's fifth-generation Automated Driving System (ADS) and was operating without a human safety driver at the time of the incident. Waymo has said its robotaxi fleet numbers more than 1,500 vehicles operating across major U.S. cities, including Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Austin. The Alphabet-owned company also plans to expand internationally, with launches in cities including Tokyo and London in coming years. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and David Shepardson in Washington; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

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By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve will go into a policy meeting next week with its view of the economy obscured by a U.S. government shutdown that has suspended the release of key data, a less-than-ideal situation for policymakers divided over which risks deserve the most attention. Official employment data hasn't been released since the shutdown of the federal government began on October 1, but what information that remains available points to still-weak job growth. The Fed's own economic field reporting, still underway at the self-funded central bank, showed possible cracks in consumer spending, and recent business confidence surveys pointed to a dip.  Yet businesses are also warning of coming price increases at a time when inflation is lodged above the Fed's 2% target, estimates of overall economic growth are getting upgraded as the scope of business investment becomes clear, and economists have begun pointing to a possible economic jolt next year as new tax laws, including exclusions for tips and overtime income, boost households' refunds. FED OFFICIALS FOCUSED ON JOB MARKET  Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range at its October 28-29 policy meeting.  But officials and economists "are just flying blind," said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura. "The big question mark right now is what is going on in the labor market, and we cannot know that until we see the report" on monthly employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That report has been delayed by the shutdown, which means Fed officials haven't had a full readout on the job market since early September. Leading U.S. central bank officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have focused their recent remarks on the labor market, where growth slid to an average monthly pace of 29,000 jobs from June through August, well below the average of the pre-COVID-19 era. New risks have emerged as well, including loan loss disclosures by two banks that rattled stock markets, and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions that could upend what Fed officials had hoped was emerging clarity about new global trading rules. The U.S. Labor Department's statistical agency will release the Consumer Price Index for September on October 24 after the Trump administration ordered some staff back to work so that the inflation data for last month is available to determine the annual Social Security cost-of-living increase. Economists polled by Reuters estimate the index rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in September, an acceleration from the month before and a number likely to keep alive some policymakers' concerns about the wisdom of cutting rates any further. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the Fed uses for its inflation target, has risen from a recent low of 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August, the most recent report. Fed officials expect it to end the year at 3.0% before declining in 2026, a fact some policymakers feel risks a worse inflation problem as households and businesses become accustomed to prices rising faster than the 2% target, as has been the case for the last four and a half years. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, a voting member of the Fed's policy-setting committee this year, said he felt the current policy rate was "the right place to be," still high enough to keep downward pressure on inflation. Just how much pressure is a matter of debate, one where the stifled flow of government data will become more important over time. TRACKING INFLATION DURING SHUTDOWN HAS BECOME CHALLENGING Fed officials hold wide-ranging views about the economy – from Schmid's concerns about inflation to new Fed Governor Stephen Miran's view that interest rates are far too high and inflation is about to drop – but all rely on fresh government data to either validate their outlook or prompt a change. While Fed officials have ways to monitor the job market outside of the Labor Department's data, through state-level unemployment claims, for example, or various private payroll reports, there are fewer alternatives for tracking inflation. Private reports on output and corporate and household attitudes also are still being produced, but monthly government data on consumption and spending and comprehensive quarterly reports on gross domestic product that would usually be updated later this month won't be available if the shutdown continues. Even alternatives, like massive databases of credit card transactions reported by banks, are more like complements to government data than good substitutes, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said last week. They "are good and useful. They are not as comprehensive nor are they as calibrated," he told the Richmond Association for Business Economics. "Is there anybody that doesn't have a credit card? Yeah, the 25% of people who have the least money." It is those details in government reports that shape policymakers' views. Slow job growth, for example, implies one thing if it is due to a weak economy, another if it is due to a lack of workers because of tighter immigration policy. The Labor Department's monthly jobs report includes estimates of the numbers of foreign- and native-born workers, data that is not available from private labor market reports. The various inflation reports, which will cease after the next CPI release as long as the shutdown continues, also contain immense amounts of data that are important to the Fed. It is a particularly tricky moment, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week, with private data pointing to still-weak hiring, but economic growth potentially accelerating. Business investment overall is expanding, but is tepid outside the rush of capital to the artificial intelligence area and, while stock markets have been rising and corporate financing is comparatively cheap, mortgage rates remain high. Wealthier households are spending, while others bargain-shop to cope with higher prices. "There's this bifurcation in so many ways that makes reading the economy tough right now," Waller, a candidate to replace Powell as Fed chief next year, told Bloomberg Television, advocating "cautious" continued rate cuts, including a quarter-percentage-point reduction in borrowing costs later this month, but noting that further cuts are dependent on how inflation behaves and whether job growth weakens further. For now "we can make our way through," Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said last week. "But the longer (the shutdown) goes on, the less confidence I have that we are reading the economy appropriately." (Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

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By Manya Saini (Reuters) -After a turbulent week in which some regional U.S. banks flagged bad loan and fraud issues, investors are now awaiting for more earnings reports from the lenders to check for signs of a wider strain across the sector. Since the 2023 banking crisis, investors have little patience for uncertainty, analysts said. Even isolated loan or fraud troubles now trigger broad-based selloffs as traders rush to reduce exposure. "Years of easy credit and low transparency have left investors uncertain about where risks truly lie, even small negative surprises can spark outsized repricing," Tim Hynes, Global Head of Credit Research at Debtwire. The KBW Regional Banking Index has dropped 6.1% this month and 4.8% in 2025, lagging the KBW Bank Index, which tracks large-cap banks and is up 13.5%. Last week, banks stocks seesawed sharply after Zions Bancorporation disclosed losses tied to two loans and Western Alliance initiated a lawsuit alleging fraud by Cantor Group V, LLC. Cantor has denied the allegations. Zions is set to report third-quarter results after the bell on Monday. The lender's stock, which has lost 12% of its value so far this month, ticked up in low volumes in premarket trading. Among regional lenders, Washington Trust Bancorp is set to report results before the bell on Monday. The bank had earlier disclosed that its third-quarter profit will be hit by $11.3 million in loan losses. 'ADDITIONAL COCKROACHES' Even before problems surfaced at Zions and Western Alliance, investor confidence had taken a hit by the twin bankruptcies of auto parts maker First Brands and subprime lender Tricolor. Fifth Third booked a $178 million loss last week tied to the bankruptcy of Tricolor, while JPMorgan Chase wrote off $170 million. "Asset quality metrics across banks have been deteriorating but have held up better than we expected. Losses have been low, so these recent numerous larger loan problems have raised fears of a broader deterioration," said Michael Driscoll, credit rating officer, Global Financial Institutions Ratings at Morningstar DBRS. "But one of the lessons from 2023 regional bank failures was that banks' funding can unravel faster than in the past if sizable issues emerge." But many including Fifth Third CEO Tim Spence have downplayed comparisons to the 2023 regional banking crisis, when Silicon Valley Bank's failure sparked a broader turmoil. Large Wall Street banks last week described the recent stress as idiosyncratic, but investors worry that problems emerging in quick succession point to deeper cracks in credit quality. "A wave of additional 'cockroaches' could reset risk tolerance across markets, pressuring valuations and tightening financial conditions further," Hynes said. Analysts said markets have taken note of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's recent comment about the potential for more cases like First Brands, amplifying investor anxiety about weaknesses in the industry's more opaque corners. "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more, and so everyone should be forewarned of this one," Dimon said last week. (Reporting by Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

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(Reuters) -The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Monday it has opened an investigation into about 2,000 Waymo self-driving vehicles after reports the robotaxis behaved unsafely near stopped school buses. NHTSA said, citing a media report, that in one incident a robotaxi initially stopped beside a school bus then drove around its front, passing the extended stop arm and crossing control arm as students were disembarking. Waymo did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)

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(Reuters) -Wall Street futures edged higher on Monday, as investors awaited earnings from corporate heavyweights and a delayed inflation report that could trigger fresh market moves later this week. Markets were still nursing bruises from last week's turbulence, as fears of systemic credit stress in the banking sector unnerved traders globally. However, upbeat earnings from some regional U.S. banks allayed concerns, offering a brief reprieve from the volatility. Earnings from Wall Street majors, including Tesla, Ford, GM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, IBM and Intel, are also set to roll in this week, presenting a fresh stress test for the stock market. At 05:25 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 124 points, or 0.27%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 23 points, or 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 109 points, or 0.77%. All the three indexes closed higher on Friday and logged weekly gains. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, also rose to its highest level in nearly six months on Friday, after renewed U.S.-China trade tensions fueled a flight to safety. U.S. President Donald Trump has floated the idea of lowering tariffs, if Beijing resumes key purchases such as soybeans. While Trump acknowledged that a proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods would not be sustainable, he pinned the latest breakdown in talks on China's tightening grip over rare earth exports. Deutsche Bank analysts said Trump's dialed down rhetoric "added to investor expectations that those 100% tariffs won't come into force". DELAYED CPI The U.S. government shutdown has stalled key economic data releases since October 1, but attention now turns to the consumer price report, a closely watched inflation gauge that is due on Friday, just ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on October 28-29. September's core inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.1%. "There's still no sign of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would see the government re-open. In terms of the market implications, this is still affecting the flow of economic data, so we're not getting regular releases," Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, said. Meanwhile, the Fed has not pushed back against rate-cut expectations, and futures are pricing in a quarter-point easing this month, with another reduction likely in December. Among early movers, cryptocurrency stocks rose in premarket trading after bitcoin gained for the third straight day. Bitfarms jumped 11.2%, while Strategy rose 3.4%. Riot Platforms advanced 3.7% and MARA Holdings was up 4.4%. (Reporting by Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)

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By Deborah Mary Sophia and Arpan Varghese (Reuters) -Global companies have flagged more than $35 billion in costs from U.S. tariffs heading into third-quarter earnings, but many are lowering their initial forecasts as new trade deals reduce exposure to President Donald Trump's levies. Trump's trade war has hiked U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s, and the president has regularly threatened more duties, but overall, the fog that paralyzed many businesses is clearing, allowing executives to forecast costs and make plans – including some price hikes. Companies expected a combined financial hit of $21.0 billion to $22.9 billion for 2025, with an impact of nearly $15 billion calculated for 2026, according to a Reuters analysis of hundreds of corporate statements, regulatory filings and earnings calls between July 16 and September 30. The total of more than $35 billion compares with $34 billion tallied in May, shortly after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs in April rattled global supply chains. But the trajectory masks a shift: the increase is largely due to Toyota's $9.5 billion estimate. Many other companies have lowered their earlier worst-case forecasts after Trump reached lower-rate trade deals with the EU and Japan. The figures combine annual and partial-year estimates from an overlapping group of firms. Both groups include about 60 firms. French spirits makers Remy Cointreau  and Pernod Ricard  both lowered estimates of tariff pain after the EU deal, while Sony in August cut its forecast. Trump also carved out exceptions, with only about a third of Brazil's exports facing a 50% tariff, for instance.  “Tariffs are getting clearer and clearer. And we believe that tariffs will be just another variable of our business equation that we need to be ready to manage, and we will,” Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa told Reuters in a mid-October interview, introducing new details of a $13 billion, four-year investment in U.S. manufacturing. Stellantis in July warned of a 1.5 billion-euro hit from U.S. tariffs this year. "I think there is this sense that we reached a kind of landing point with some of the bilateral trade deals," said International Chamber of Commerce Deputy Secretary General Andrew Wilson. "But there will continue to be much greater complexity and this massive uncertainty."  Case in point: Trump earlier this month floated the idea of additional 100% tariffs on China. On Friday, he said the proposed tariffs would not be sustainable, and blamed Beijing for the latest tensions in trade talks between the two countries.  CONSUMER AND MANUFACTURING HIT HARDEST S&P 500 companies are projected to show an earnings growth rate of 9.3% in the July-September period, a decline from 13.8% in the second quarter, according to LSEG data. Much of that is on the back of the U.S. IT sector, driven by AI investment. Europe's Stoxx 600 is expected to clock 0.5% growth, down from 4% in the previous quarter. The pain is concentrated on companies that depend on countries that do not have trade deals. Nike, heavily dependent on suppliers in Vietnam and other Asian countries, raised its tariff impact estimate late last month to $1.5 billion from $1 billion. In Europe, Tefal kitchen-ware maker SEB recently cut its profit outlook, citing weaker demand as customers adopted a wait-and-see attitude partly due to tariffs, while H&M cautioned that U.S. tariffs on imports would weigh more heavily on margins in the quarter through November. "We are cautious about the U.S. heading into the fourth quarter, both connected to the impact of tariffs on the gross margin but equally also the consumer sentiment," H&M CEO Daniel Erver told Reuters. "We can see the price increases." Price increases are the most frequent effect of tariffs cited by companies in the Reuters tracker. Carmakers including Ford, Stellantis, Volkswagen and Toyota collectively have reported billions in tariff-related costs. Ford, for instance, is expecting a cumulative $3 billion impact.  Still, optimism has ticked up among automakers and auto parts suppliers as Trump has moved toward significant tariff relief for U.S. auto production that could effectively eliminate many of the costs that have hit top car companies.  Drug makers also have started rolling out deals on drug pricing and manufacturing that are tied to U.S. tariff exemptions. Pfizer and AstraZeneca have led the way, and others are expected to follow. ​ ​ ​ (Reporting by Deborah Sophia, Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru and the tariff tracking teams in Bengaluru and Gdansk; Additional reporting by Josephine Mason in London, Nora Eckert in Detroit and David Gaffen in New York;Editing by Peter Henderson and Matthew Lewis)

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