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BEIJING (Reuters) -China's new home prices fell at the fastest pace in 11 months in September, worsening the property sector's drag on broader economic growth as policymakers struggle to revive the flailing market. Persistent property market weakness is weighing on consumer confidence and sapping household spending, building the case for policymakers to step up support to shore up growth amid global trade threats. New home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.3% fall in August, according to calculations by Reuters based on National Bureau of Statistics data. Year-on-year, prices fell 2.2% in September versus a 2.5% drop in August. September and October are traditionally the peak season for property buying as developers launch sales campaigns to attract consumers during national holidays. But a prolonged property downturn since 2021, marked by many developers failing to repay debt and complete presold homes, has soured consumer sentiment. Of the 70 cities surveyed by the NBS, 63 reported month-on-month declines in home prices, and 61 recorded year-on-year falls. Secondary home prices slid 3.2% year-on-year in tier-one cities, 5.0% in tier-two, and 5.7% in tier-three. Separate data shows faster falls in property investment and sales in January–September. Once a key driver of economic growth in China, the property sector has turned into a significant drag. China has in the past two years repeatedly pledged to stabilise the real estate market and rolled out numerous policies, including mortgage rate cuts and a campaign to accelerate urban village redevelopment. Local authorities have also eased curbs for buying homes to encourage consumption. But the property market remains weak and analysts warn it could take a year or more for prices and investment to recover. Nomura analysts said in a report last week that the government would need to "more seriously address the fallout from the property market collapse" in its new five-year plan for 2026 to 2030. The elite Central Committee of China's ruling Communist Party will hold a closed-door meeting from Monday to Thursday to discuss, among other things, the country's 15th five-year development plan. (Reporting by Yukun Zhang, Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill and Sam Holmes)

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(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. The Takaichi trade has been in full swing since the Liberal Democratic Party did a deal with the Japan Innovation Party to form a coalition government, bringing Japan closer to its first female prime minister. Analysts assume Sanae Takaichi would be pro-stimulus and against further hikes in interest rates, a negative for the yen and bonds but a plus for equities. The Nikkei duly jumped 2.9% to an all-time high, while the yen slipped modestly. Even ultra-long JGBs caught a bid, perhaps on relief there would actually be a government, albeit a minority one. JAPAN BUTTRESSES ASIA MARKETS AFTER MIXED CHINA DATA The jump in the Nikkei helped lead most of Asia higher, with markets successfully navigating a slate of mixed Chinese economic news. The giant economy topped forecasts by growing 1.1% in the third quarter versus three months prior, while the annual pace slowed as expected to 4.8%. Industrial output also beat forecasts, while retail sales were bang in line and home prices remained weak. On face value, the data were solid enough to give China confidence it can outlast the United States in a trade war, with President Trump conceding 100% tariffs were unsustainable. Top Chinese policymakers convene this week to discuss the Five-Year Plan, though investors have long given up on expecting aggressive stimulus. Analysts were also not quite sure what to make of news that China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang had been removed from his post as the country's permanent representative at the World Trade Organization. US WORKS TO DELIVER DATA AMID GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN In the U.S., there is no end in sight to the government shutdown and the longer it drags on the more impact it will have on economic growth, even if markets seem complacent about it right now. The statistics bureau is making a special effort to get the CPI out on Friday since it is needed for all sorts of indexing, including for TIPS. An acceleration in core inflation to 3.1% is widely expected and shouldn't move the dial on rate cut expectations given the Federal Reserve has not pushed back on a near 100% probability for a move this month. On the corporate side, companies reporting earnings this week include Tesla, Ford, GM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, along with aerospace and defence giant RTX and tech stalwarts IBM and Intel. The bar is high and markets have a habit of punishing results that don't knock the lights out. Options suggest average share loss of around 6% on the smallest disappointment. BofA is tipping earnings growth of 11%, led by a 20% rise in the tech sector and Nvidia alone driving a quarter of growth in total earnings per share. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: (By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -Apple's iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, research firm Counterpoint said on Monday. The newer models outsold the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries, Counterpoint said in a report. Sales of the base model iPhone 17 nearly doubled in China compared to the iPhone 16 during the same period, it added, with sales of the model rising 31% across the two markets. “The base model iPhone 17 is very compelling to consumers, offering great value for money,” Senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang said in the report. "A better chip, improved display, higher base storage, selfie camera upgrade – all for the same price as last year's iPhone 16." Apple launched the iPhone 17 series globally, including in China, in September. (Reporting by Liam Mo and Brenda Goh; Editing by Kate Mayberry)

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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) -A surge in the Nikkei led Asian markets higher on Monday as Japan looked close to installing a new prime minister, while a reading on U.S. inflation this week is expected to be no more than a speed bump on the way to further rate cuts there. Data showed China's economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter, to top forecasts, while industrial output also beat with a rise of 6.5%, which could reinforce Beijing's determination to fight a lengthy trade war with the United States. On an annual basis, its 4.8% growth still marked the slowest pace in a year. A continued fall in Chinese home prices also showed the property sector remained a big drag on the economy, household wealth and spending, with retail sales up a modest 3.0% on the year. Investors are hoping from more stimulus as policymakers convene this week to discuss the latest Five-Year Plan, though markets have got used to being disappointed. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters he could lower tariffs on China as long as Beijing did "things" for the United States too, including resuming purchases of soy beans. Figures due on Friday are expected to show U.S. core inflation held at 3.1% in September, but should not trouble markets given the Federal Reserve has not pushed back against pricing for cuts. "Chair Powell has highlighted the importance of signs of a weakening job market in the Fed's policy considerations," said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. "That confirmed widely held expectations that the FOMC will cut rates again at its next meeting in just over two weeks." Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing this month, and another in December, with rates seen reaching 3.0% by the middle of next year. Japan's Nikkei led Asia higher with a jump of 2.8%, encouraged by news the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party have agreed to form a coalition government, setting the stage for the country's first female prime minister. Analysts assume Sanae Takaichi would be pro-stimulus and against further hikes in interest rates, a negative for the yen and bonds but a plus for equities. Shares in South Korea added 1.0%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan firmed 1.3%. Chinese blue chips gained 0.8%, having lost ground last week. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.7%, while DAX futures firmed 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%. For Wall Street, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%, with much riding on how earnings unfold this week. HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR EARNINGS S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's lofty valuations. B0fA analyst Savita Subramanian is tipping earnings growth of 11%, led by a 20% rise in the tech sector and Nvidia alone driving a quarter of growth in total earnings per share. Reports include Tesla, Ford, GM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, along with aerospace and defence giant RTX and tech stalwarts IBM and Intel. The UK also has major banks reporting this week while software giant SAP will make a splash in Germany. The prospect of a series of Fed rate cuts has underpinned bonds, with 10-year yields falling almost 14 basis points last week to currently stand at 4.011%. The slide in yields has pressured the dollar against European and higher-yielding currencies, with the euro at $1.1656 having edged up 0.3% last week despite a surprise credit downgrade of France. The yen had its own problems as investors have scaled back pricing for a Bank of Japan rate hike this month to just 22%, with a move in December put at 50-50. The dollar was flat at 150.55 yen, while the euro was steady at 175.64. The dollar index dipped a shade to 98.431. In commodity markets, gold remained in high demand after jumping almost 6% last week to as far as $4,378.69. The metal was trading at $4,266 an ounce, with $4,200 now acting as chart support. [GOL/] "On a three-year horizon, we believe that there is more room for gold prices to rise, eventually reaching a target of $5,000 an ounce in 2028 due to a structural change in demand for the metal by investors and central banks," said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute. Oil prices continued to be weighed by ample supplies as OPEC+ keeps raising its output. [O/R] Brent eased 0.4% to $61.02 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 0.5% to $57.24 per barrel. (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kim Coghill)

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(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. The Takaichi trade has been in full swing since the Liberal Democratic Party did a deal with the Japan Innovation Party to form a coalition government, bringing Japan closer to its first female prime minister. Analysts assume Sanae Takaichi would be pro-stimulus and against further hikes in interest rates, a negative for the yen and bonds but a plus for equities. The Nikkei duly jumped 2.9% to an all-time high, while the yen slipped modestly. Even ultra-long JGBs caught a bid, perhaps on relief there would actually be a government, albeit a minority one. JAPAN BUTTRESSES ASIA MARKETS AFTER MIXED CHINA DATA The jump in the Nikkei helped lead most of Asia higher, with markets successfully navigating a slate of mixed Chinese economic news. The giant economy topped forecasts by growing 1.1% in the third quarter versus three months prior, while the annual pace slowed as expected to 4.8%. Industrial output also beat forecasts, while retail sales were bang in line and home prices remained weak. On face value, the data were solid enough to give China confidence it can outlast the United States in a trade war, with President Trump conceding 100% tariffs were unsustainable. Top Chinese policymakers convene this week to discuss the Five-Year Plan, though investors have long given up on expecting aggressive stimulus. Analysts were also not quite sure what to make of news that China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang had been removed from his post as the country's permanent representative at the World Trade Organization. US WORKS TO DELIVER DATA AMID GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN In the U.S., there is no end in sight to the government shutdown and the longer it drags on the more impact it will have on economic growth, even if markets seem complacent about it right now. The statistics bureau is making a special effort to get the CPI out on Friday since it is needed for all sorts of indexing, including for TIPS. An acceleration in core inflation to 3.1% is widely expected and shouldn't move the dial on rate cut expectations given the Federal Reserve has not pushed back on a near 100% probability for a move this month. On the corporate side, companies reporting earnings this week include Tesla, Ford, GM, Netflix, Procter & Gamble and Coca-Cola, along with aerospace and defence giant RTX and tech stalwarts IBM and Intel. The bar is high and markets have a habit of punishing results that don't knock the lights out. Options suggest average share loss of around 6% on the smallest disappointment. BofA is tipping earnings growth of 11%, led by a 20% rise in the tech sector and Nvidia alone driving a quarter of growth in total earnings per share. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: (By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

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By Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao BEIJING (Reuters) -China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter, as a property crisis and trade tensions hurt demand, leaving policymakers with the daunting challenge of rebalancing GDP drivers towards greater consumption over time. Authorities have unveiled modest stimulus measures this year, supported by resilient exports and strong stock markets, but renewed U.S.-China trade tensions pose risks. While there is room for additional support, analysts are divided over whether policymakers will act this year. Data on Monday showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% in July-September, slowing from 5.2% in the second quarter and in line with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 4.8%. China is aiming for full-year growth of around 5%. "The market understanding was that China is going to miss the target, no matter what. Even with stimulus, it was going to be below 5%," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. "But judging by the figure for the first three quarters, it's going to hit the target, suggesting China can withstand any pressure from the U.S., even with such levels of tariff threats and export restrictions. Beijing is sending the signal that it is capable of reaching its development goals and is strongly committed to its policies." On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, compared with a forecast 0.8% increase and a revised 1.0% gain in the previous quarter. TRADE RIFT HIGHLIGHT WEAKNESS IN LOPSIDED ECONOMY Renewed trade tensions with Washington have highlighted the vulnerabilities of China's lopsided economy, which relies heavily on manufacturing and overseas demand. This has raised expectations that Chinese leaders may embrace painful changes to rebalance growth towards domestic consumption. While China's export growth rebounded in September, much of the recent data show the world's second-largest economy has lost momentum, and deflationary pressures have persisted despite efforts to curb overcapacity and fierce competition among firms. Despite resilient headline figures, exporters are already feeling the impact of higher U.S. tariffs imposed earlier this year, forcing many to diversify into new markets. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by an additional 100% starting November 1. However, U.S. officials have signalled that both countries were prepared to lower the temperature in their tariff spat. CHINA'S FIVE-YEAR PLAN IN FOCUS Chinese leaders will hold a closed-door meeting from Monday through to Thursday to discuss, among other things, the country's 15th five-year development plan, which is expected to prioritise high-tech manufacturing in the wake of the intensifying rivalry with the United States. Investors are also looking to a Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, expected in December, for clues on economic policy for next year. "Q4 will be structurally different, heavy in investment and light in consumption. After all, negative investment growth is not something policymakers want to see," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. "Supportive measures rolled out since September like policy finance tools and the frontloaded government bond issuance are directed towards public investment projects." Separate September activity data, which were also released on Monday, showed industrial output grew to a three-month high of 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating from a 5.2% increase in August and beating a forecast of 5.0%. Retail sales growth slowed to their weakest in 10 months at 3.0% in September, from 3.4% in August, matching a forecast rise of 3.0%. Fixed asset investment shrank 0.5% in the first nine months compared with the same period last year, versus 0.5% growth in the January-to-August period and an expected 0.1% expansion. Property investment in China fell 13.9% in the first three quarters year-on-year, after dropping 12.9% in the January-to-August period, official data showed on Monday. A prolonged property crisis has weighed heavily on growth and consumer confidence in China, with momentum already pressured by the U.S. trade spat. (Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin YaoEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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By Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao BEIJING (Reuters) -China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter, as a property crisis and trade tensions hurt demand, leaving policymakers with the daunting challenge of rebalancing GDP drivers towards greater consumption over time. Authorities have unveiled modest stimulus measures this year, supported by resilient exports and strong stock markets, but renewed U.S.-China trade tensions pose risks. While there is room for additional support, analysts are divided over whether policymakers will act this year. Data on Monday showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% in July-September, slowing from 5.2% in the second quarter and in line with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 4.8%. China is aiming for full-year growth of around 5%. "The market understanding was that China is going to miss the target, no matter what. Even with stimulus, it was going to be below 5%," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. "But judging by the figure for the first three quarters, it's going to hit the target, suggesting China can withstand any pressure from the U.S., even with such levels of tariff threats and export restrictions. Beijing is sending the signal that it is capable of reaching its development goals and is strongly committed to its policies." On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1% in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, compared with a forecast 0.8% increase and a revised 1.0% gain in the previous quarter. TRADE RIFT HIGHLIGHT WEAKNESS IN LOPSIDED ECONOMY Renewed trade tensions with Washington have highlighted the vulnerabilities of China's lopsided economy, which relies heavily on manufacturing and overseas demand. This has raised expectations that Chinese leaders may embrace painful changes to rebalance growth towards domestic consumption. While China's export growth rebounded in September, much of the recent data show the world's second-largest economy has lost momentum, and deflationary pressures have persisted despite efforts to curb overcapacity and fierce competition among firms. Despite resilient headline figures, exporters are already feeling the impact of higher U.S. tariffs imposed earlier this year, forcing many to diversify into new markets. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by an additional 100% starting November 1. However, U.S. officials have signalled that both countries were prepared to lower the temperature in their tariff spat. CHINA'S FIVE-YEAR PLAN IN FOCUS Chinese leaders will hold a closed-door meeting from Monday through to Thursday to discuss, among other things, the country's 15th five-year development plan, which is expected to prioritise high-tech manufacturing in the wake of the intensifying rivalry with the United States. Investors are also looking to a Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, expected in December, for clues on economic policy for next year. "Q4 will be structurally different, heavy in investment and light in consumption. After all, negative investment growth is not something policymakers want to see," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. "Supportive measures rolled out since September like policy finance tools and the frontloaded government bond issuance are directed towards public investment projects." Separate September activity data, which were also released on Monday, showed industrial output grew to a three-month high of 6.5% year-on-year, accelerating from a 5.2% increase in August and beating a forecast of 5.0%. Retail sales growth slowed to their weakest in 10 months at 3.0% in September, from 3.4% in August, matching a forecast rise of 3.0%. Fixed asset investment shrank 0.5% in the first nine months compared with the same period last year, versus 0.5% growth in the January-to-August period and an expected 0.1% expansion. Property investment in China fell 13.9% in the first three quarters year-on-year, after dropping 12.9% in the January-to-August period, official data showed on Monday. A prolonged property crisis has weighed heavily on growth and consumer confidence in China, with momentum already pressured by the U.S. trade spat. (Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin YaoEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -China's new home prices fell at the fastest pace in 11 months in September, worsening the property sector's drag on broader economic growth as policymakers struggle to revive the flailing market. Persistent property market weakness is weighing on consumer confidence and sapping household spending, building the case for policymakers to step up support to shore up growth amid global trade threats. New home prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, following a 0.3% fall in August, according to calculations by Reuters based on National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday. Year-on-year, prices fell 2.2% in September versus a 2.5% drop in August. "If the value of real estate, especially in first-tier cities, continues to shrink, people will feel they have less money to spend and will expect even less in the future," said Hanna Liu, China economist at Nomura. "We think it's possible to reintroduce measures to stabilise, or even slightly increase, housing prices in first-tier cities, as this would be the most helpful means for boosting consumption," said Liu. BIG IDEAS NEEDED TO REVIVE MARKET September and October are traditionally the peak season for property buying as developers launch sales campaigns to attract consumers during national holidays. But a prolonged property downturn since 2021, marked by many developers failing to repay debt and complete presold homes, has soured consumer sentiment. Separate data released on Monday showed China's headline economic growth slowed in the third quarter, hurt by the property slump and a U.S. trade war. More support for demand, such as lowering mortgage rates and expanding the scope of personal income tax deductions, may be introduced in the fourth-quarter to bolster confidence, according to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property Agency. Zhang expects property transaction volumes to drop 10% this year. Of the 70 cities surveyed by the NBS, 63 reported month-on-month declines in home prices, and 61 recorded year-on-year falls. Secondary home prices slid 3.2% year-on-year in tier-one cities, 5.0% in tier-two, and 5.7% in tier-three. Separate data shows faster falls in property investment and sales in January–September. Once a key driver of economic growth in China, the property sector has turned into a significant drag. China has in the past two years repeatedly pledged to stabilise the real estate market and rolled out numerous policies, including mortgage rate cuts and a campaign to accelerate urban village redevelopment. Local authorities have also eased curbs for buying homes to encourage consumption. But the market remains weak and analysts warn it could take a year or more for prices and investment to recover. Nomura analysts said in a report last week that the government would need to "more seriously address the fallout from the property market collapse" in its new five-year plan for 2026 to 2030. "The tone set by the meeting for the property market will still prioritise sector stability, while encouraging local stimulus policies such as home purchase subsidies and tax reductions," said Jeff Zhang, property equity analyst at Morningstar. The elite Central Committee of China's ruling Communist Party will hold a closed-door meeting from Monday to Thursday to discuss, among other things, the country's 15th five-year development plan. (Reporting by Yukun Zhang, Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill and Sam Holmes)

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(Reuters) -China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter, matching expectations, as a prolonged property slump and trade tensions hurt demand, keeping pressure on policymakers to roll out more stimulus to shore up momentum. Data on Monday showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.8% in July-September, slowing from 5.2% in the second quarter and in line with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 4.8%. KEY POINTS * Q3 GDP +4.8% y/y (f'cast +4.8%, Q2 +5.2%) * Q3 GDP +1.1% q/q s/adj (f'cast +0.8%, Q2 +1.0% revised) * September industrial output +6.5% y/y (f'cast +5.0%, August +5.2%) * September retail sales +3.0% y/y (forecast +3.0%, August +3.4%) * January-September fixed asset investment -0.5% y/y (forecast +0.1%, January-August +0.5%) * January-September property investment -13.9% y/y (January-August -12.9%) COMMENTARY KYLE RODDA, SENIOR FINANCIAL MARKETS ANALYST, CAPITAL.COM, MELBOURNE: "Better than expected but still underwhelming. Domestic activity remains weak and investment was sluggish too, suggesting more needs to be done to boost demand. Ultimately, the story is the same: an economy that is recovering from the post-pandemic slump, but with very little momentum." ALEX LOO, FX AND MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE: "It is likely that Beijing will meet its growth target for 2025 of 'around 5%'. The impressive growth record year-to-date suggests little need for more fiscal stimulus at this juncture and Beijing would probably take a hard-line stance in pressing the U.S. to roll back its technology curbs in any potential trade deal. As the Fourth Plenum is underway, we expect USD/CNY to stay in a tight range as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) ensures volatility is kept at a minimum during these big political events." TONY SYCAMORE, ANALYST AT IG, SYDNEY: "Given everything that's going on… my initial read is it's a decent number. "I don't expect there will be any broad-based stimulus measures. I know we've got the fourth plenum and I don't expect there to be anything too significant. From now, we are going to continue to see targeted additional fiscal stimulus. There's probably an idea that the quarter-three GDP number will be the low point in this cycle and that they can try with that additional targeted stimulus. You know the anti-involution, all the rest of those measures to potentially get the Chinese economy back on a firmer footing into year-end." LI HAO, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, CYPRESS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, BEIJING: "Third-quarter GDP growth was in line with expectations. At this stage, achieving the full-year growth target of 5% doesn't appear too difficult, assuming no major geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks. While short-term policy support may not exceed expectations, medium- to long-term efforts to stimulate domestic demand must continue. "September data shows the underlying economic structure remains unchanged. Domestic demand is still weak, with investment and consumption falling short of forecasts. Meanwhile, resilient exports suggest front-loading of overseas orders is still driving factory activity." DAN WANG, CHINA DIRECTOR, EURASIA GROUP: "The market understanding was that China is going to miss the target, no matter what. Even with stimulus, it was going to be below 5%. But judging by the figure for the first three quarters, it's going to hit the target, suggesting China can withstand any pressure from the U.S., even with such levels of tariff threats and export restrictions. Beijing is sending the signal that it is capable of reaching its development goals and is strongly committed to its policies." TIANCHEN XU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT, BEIJING: "Q4 will be structurally different, heavy in investment and light in consumption. After all, negative investment growth is not something policymakers want to see. Supportive measures rolled out since September like policy finance tools and the front-loaded government bond issuance are directed towards public investment projects." ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT: "China GDP growth slowed further in Q3. The fixed asset investment growth turned negative year-to-date, which is rare and alarming. The Ministry of Finance announced the RMB 500 billion stimulus on Friday. It should help to mitigate the downward pressure on investment in Q4. Nonetheless, the risk to GDP growth in Q4 is likely on the downside." BACKGROUND * China's economy has steadily lost momentum following a strong start to the year, weighed down by a prolonged property slump, weak consumption and trade tensions. * Trade friction with Washington has intensified after China expanded its rare earth export controls, prompting a threat from U.S. President Donald Trump to raise tariffs by an additional 100% starting November 1. * However, U.S. officials have signalled that both countries were prepared to lower the temperature in their tariff spat. * China has rolled out modest support measures this year to preserve policy space for future shocks, taking advantage of resilient exports and strong stock markets. * China's heavy reliance on manufacturing and overseas demand has made it vulnerable to external shocks. Exporters are already feeling the impact of higher U.S. tariffs imposed earlier this year. * While China's export growth rebounded in September, much of the recent data shows the world's second-largest economy has lost momentum. * China's economy is projected to grow 4.8% this year, below the official target of around 5%, according to a Reuters poll. Growth is expected to ease further to 4.3% in 2026. (Reporting by Reuters Asia bureaus; Compiled and edited by Subhranshu Sahu)

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By Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson BEIJING (Reuters) -China imported no soybeans from the U.S. in September, the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero, while South American shipments surged from a year earlier, as buyers shunned American cargoes during the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. Imports last month from the U.S. fell to zero from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed on Monday. Shipments fell because of the high tariffs China has imposed on U.S. imports and as previously harvested U.S. supplies, known as old-crop beans, have already been traded. China is the world's biggest soybean importer. "This is mainly due to tariffs. In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market," said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures. Brazil arrivals last month jumped 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, accounting for 85.2% of China's total imports of the oilseed, customs data showed, while shipments from Argentina rose 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, or 9% of the total. China's soybean imports reached 12.87 million metric tons in September, the second-highest level on record. China has not purchased any U.S. soybean cargoes from this autumn's harvest. The window for U.S. soybean purchases is rapidly closing as buyers secure shipments through November, largely from Brazil and Argentina, helped by Argentina's brief tax holiday. Without a breakthrough in trade talks, U.S. farmers could face billions in losses as Chinese crushers continue sourcing from South America. Beijing, however, may also face a potential supply crunch early next year before Brazil's new crops hit the market. "A soybean supply gap may emerge in China between February and April next year if there's no trade deal in place. Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. Trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington appear to be regaining momentum after weeks of fresh tariff threats and export controls. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believed a soybean deal would be reached. For the January-September period, China imported 63.7 million tons from Brazil, up 2.4% year-on-year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8% year-on-year. Even as Chinese buyers are shunning this year's U.S. harvest, purchases earlier in 2025 mean that year-to-date imports of American beans have totalled 16.8 million tons, up 15.5%, data showed. (Reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

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