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(Reuters) -The U.S. government shutdown has thrown the brakes on the flow of federal economic data at a moment of uncertainty and division among policymakers like those at the Federal Reserve about the health of the U.S. job market, the trajectory of inflation and the strength of consumer spending and business investment. But the shutdown itself – if history is any guide – is unlikely to leave a lasting imprint on the U.S. economy itself, even if it leaves policymakers and investors flying somewhat blind for an unknown stretch. Over the last half century, the 20 previous shutdowns have lasted on average eight days and a median of four days, hardly long enough for the suspension of some government services and pay to federal workers to crater the economy.  That doesn't mean it isn't a headache for investors and officials tasked with economic stewardship. Fed officials, for instance, have a decision on interest rates coming in four weeks that hinges in particular on their sense of just what is going on with the two things that most concern them – the job market and inflation.  For as long as the closure lasts, they will have to sift through a clutch of private-sector-sourced data sets that have been seen as limited substitutes for the granular figures issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. "It pains me that we wouldn't be getting official statistics at exactly a moment when we're trying to figure out is the economy in transition," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday on "The Claman Countdown" on Fox Business. JOBS REPORT DELAYED DURING SHUTDOWN The Fed cut interest rates last month for the first time since December on growing concern about the job market. Projections from policymakers issued alongside that decision, though, showed a number of them are not convinced risks to the job market are significant enough to warrant more cuts in the near term. Now they may not see the benchmark monthly employment report from BLS – originally scheduled for release on Friday – before their October 28-29 meeting if a shutdown drags on for weeks like the most recent one did during President Donald Trump's first term. Day one of the shutdown cast their dilemma in stark relief.  A measure of private-sector employment from payrolls processor ADP showed employers unexpectedly reduced headcount by 32,000 jobs in September, and private employment by their count has fallen in three of the past four months. With no data coming soon from BLS to truth-test that outcome, officials and economists have to decide how much weight to put on a data series long viewed as a poor proxy for the government data. At the same time, recent large revisions to BLS data – and Trump's firing of the BLS chief in August – have dented the agency's credibility and have spurred interest in alternative data sources, including ADP. "Growing concerns about the integrity of governmental economic data as well as the ongoing government shutdown have emphasized the need to broaden our data coverage, which will now include the ADP national employment report," Matthew Martin, Senior US Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. The private payrolls drop reported by ADP, Martin said, "underscores the reticence of businesses to increase headcount. Given the weaker labor market data and the potential for a data fog should the government shutdown be prolonged, we will be pulling forward our forecasted December rate cut to October in the upcoming baseline." 'INCONVENIENT AND MESSY' Meanwhile, even though hundreds of thousands of federal workers are on furlough and a range of important government services are suspended, shutdowns themselves don't typically move the needle for the economy. In only two shutdowns was there a contemporaneous contraction in economic activity – in a two-day shutdown in November 1981 under President Ronald Reagan and a three-day closure in October 1990 under President George H.W. Bush. In both cases, however, the economy was already in recession before the shutdowns occurred. During stop-and-start shutdowns in the fourth quarter of 1977 under President Jimmy Carter that led to a total of 31 days of government closure spread over three months, economic growth skidded to a halt and curtailed government spending was a net drag on the economy. But growth snapped back the following quarter, and overall consumer spending was not slowed during the outages. In fact, consumer spending on balance has continued to grow during the months affected by past shutdowns, growing by an average of about 0.5%. During the longest shutdown on record, a 35-day closure from late December 2018 through most of January 2019 during Trump's first presidency, consumption over the two affected months fell by an average of 0.3%, but economists then blamed the slowdown on dissipating tailwinds from the tax cuts enacted earlier in Trump's term and by the trade war he had kicked off with China. And while the most recent shutdown during Trump's first term saw a short-lived rise in claims for unemployment benefits by furloughed federal workers, that didn't bleed into the wider job market. Labor Department data shows little movement historically in new claims for jobless benefits or in the U.S. unemployment rate during the periods affected by shutdowns. "Government shutdowns are inconvenient and messy, but there is little evidence that they have a significant impact on the economy," said Scott Helfstein, Head of Investment Strategy at Global X. "Typically, the lost economic activity, if meaningful in the first place, is recovered in the following quarter." (Reporting by Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns and Lucia MutikaniEditing by Nick Zieminski)

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Alphabet's Google said hackers are sending extortion emails to an unspecified number of executives, claiming to have stolen sensitive data from their Oracle business applications. In a statement, Google said a group claiming affiliation with the ransomware gang cl0p was sending emails to "executives at numerous organizations claiming to have stolen sensitive data from their Oracle E-Business Suite." Google cautioned that it "does not currently have sufficient evidence to definitively assess the veracity of these claims." Messages seeking comment from cl0p and Oracle were not immediately returned. Google described the email campaign as "high-volume" but declined to share further details. (Reporting by Raphael Satter in WashingtonEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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By David Morgan, Bo Erickson, Nolan D. McCaskill and Richard Cowan WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday froze $26 billion for Democratic-leaning states, following through on a threat to use the government shutdown to target Democratic priorities. The targeted programs included $18 billion for transit projects in New York, home to Congress's top two Democrats, and $8 billion for green-energy projects in 16 Democratic-run states, including California and Illinois. Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, warned that the administration might extend its purge of federal workers if the shutdown lasts more than a few days.  The moves made clear that Trump would carry out his threat to take advantage of the shutdown to punish his political opponents and extend his control over the $7 trillion federal budget, established by the U.S. Constitution as the domain of Congress.  "Billions of dollars can be saved," he wrote on Truth Social late on Wednesday. The government shutdown, the 15th since 1981, suspended scientific research, financial oversight, environmental cleanup efforts and a wide range of other activities. Some 750,000 federal workers were ordered not to work, while others, such as troops and Border Patrol agents, began to work without pay. The Department of Veterans Affairs said it would provide burials at national cemeteries, but would not erect headstones or mow the grass. Vance said at a White House briefing that the administration would be forced to resort to layoffs if the shutdown lasts more than a few days, adding to the 300,000 who will be pushed out by December. Previous shutdowns have not resulted in permanent layoffs. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office said it would lay off 1% of its 14,000 employees, according to an internal letter seen by Reuters. SCHUMER ALLEGES SHUTDOWN 'BLACKMAIL' Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, said the funding freeze for subway and harbor projects in his home of New York would throw thousands out of work. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer, also from New York, said Trump was targeting regular Americans for partisan aims. "He is using the American people as pawns, threatening pain on the country as blackmail," Schumer said. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he was concerned that the freezing of infrastructure funds for New York could make it harder for Congress to exit the shutdown. "They need to be really careful with that, because they can create a toxic environment here," Tillis said. "So hopefully they're working with the leader, and the leader with them, on not creating more work to get us out of this posture." Republican Senate Leader John Thune dismissed concerns that the spending freeze amounted to hostage-taking. "Well, vote to open up the government and that issue goes away, right? I mean, it's pretty straightforward," he said at a press conference. Jeffries said he had not had any contact with the White House since a meeting with Trump earlier in the week. "We haven't heard from the White House since the White House meeting on Monday," he said in an CNN interview. "Clearly, they wanted to shut the government down." DIFFERENT DAY, DIFFERENT VOTE, SAME RESULTS Meanwhile, the Senate again rejected efforts to keep the government functioning as both a Republican proposal that would fund the government through November 21 and a Democratic vote that would pair funding with additional health benefits failed in floor votes. Trump's Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, but they need the support of at least seven of Schumer's Democrats to meet the chamber's 60-vote threshold for spending bills. At issue on the government funding front is $1.7 trillion for agency operations, which amounts to roughly one-quarter of annual spending. Much of the remainder goes to health and retirement programs and interest payments on the growing $37.5 trillion debt. A bipartisan group of senators huddled on the floor during the vote, trying to find a path forward. "I want to see that a deal is a deal, and I would like to see the Republicans make a commitment to work with us on health care," said Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat who represents many federal workers near the nation's capital. "But I've never said that has to be all I's dotted and T's crossed because that could be complicated." Democrats are also seeking guarantees that Trump will not be able to ignore spending bills he signs into law, as he has repeatedly done since returning to office. Both sides sought to pin the blame on the other, looking for advantage ahead of the 2026 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Democrats said Republicans were responsible for the disruption, as they control the levers of power in Washington. Republicans said Democrats were surrendering to partisan pressures to oppose Trump, even though they have routinely backed spending bills in the past. They also repeated a false claim that the Democratic proposal would extend health coverage to people who are in the country illegally. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Democratic plan would only restore coverage to certain categories of immigrants who are in the country legally, such as asylum seekers and people on work visas. Several government agencies posted notices on their websites blaming the "radical left" for the shutdown – a possible violation of a law known as the Hatch Act meant to insulate nuts-and-bolts government services from partisan politics.  The longest U.S. government shutdown, which stretched over 35 days in 2018-2019 during Trump's first term, ended in part after flight delays caused by air traffic controllers calling in sick. (Reporting by Courtney Rozen, Richard Cowan, Nolan D. McCaskill, Bo Erickson and David Morgan; Additional reporting by Mike Stone, Doina Chacu, Jasper Ward, Costas Pitas, Katharine Jackson and Bhargav Acharya; Writing by Andy Sullivan and James Oliphant; Editing by Scott Malone, Lincoln Feast, Alistair Bell, Daniel Wallis and Richard Chang)

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(Corrects television station name to NewsNation, paragraph 2) TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan will not agree to a deal with the United States for half of all semiconductor production to take place in the country, the island's top tariff negotiator said on Wednesday after returning home. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick told U.S. television network NewsNation over the weekend that Washington's pitch to Taiwan would be a 50-50 split in making chips, the vast majority of which are now made on the island. Taiwan Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun, who is leading the tariff talks with Washington, told reporters upon getting back to the island that she had not discussed the 50-50 idea suggested by the U.S. during the talks. "Our negotiating team has never made any commitment to a 50-50 split on chips. Rest assured, we did not discuss this issue during this round of talks, nor would we agree to such conditions," she said, according to Taiwan's official Central News Agency. Neither the U.S. Commerce Department nor the Office of the United States Trade Representative responded to requests for comment sent outside of U.S. business hours. Taiwan, home to the world's biggest contract chipmaker TSMC, runs a large trade surplus with the United States. The island's exports to the United States are currently subject to a 20% tariff. TSMC, whose business is surging on strong demand for artificial intelligence applications, is investing $165 billion to build chip factories in the U.S. state of Arizona, though the bulk of its production will remain in Taiwan. Taiwan's government said last month that it hoped for a more favourable tariff rate from the United States after talks achieved "certain progress". Speaking in parliament in Taipei on Tuesday, Premier Cho Jung-tai said Cheng had had multiple talks with the United States on tariff issues. "The most critical substantive consultations are currently underway," he said. Cheng, speaking at the airport, said that "detailed" discussions had taken place which yielded "certain progress", the Central News Agency added. (Reporting by Ben BlanchardEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) -Tech shares rallied on Thursday, driving Asia stock indexes higher, while gold hovered near a record high and the dollar languished as a weak U.S. labour market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The U.S. government shutdown made it a near certainty that crucial monthly payrolls data won't be released on Friday, but overnight the private ADP employment report showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September, with the prior month also revised to a decline. Even without the benefit of official labour data, the dismal ADP report had traders pricing in quarter-point Fed rate cuts at each of the two remaining policy meetings of the year as almost a done deal. The promise of an easier policy environment helped lift Wall Street to fresh record highs on Wednesday, and the Philadelphia SE semiconductor index climbed more than 2%. Chip sector shares were prominent in leading Japan's Nikkei to gains of about 0.5%. Taiwan's tech-heavy bourse jumped 1.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI shot up 2.8% after chip heavyweights Samsung and Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5%. The ADP report "suggests the U.S. economy is in almost dire need for further policy support," and as a result, "the markets are discounting a much higher probability of rate cuts in October and December," said Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com. Meanwhile, "after some initial jitters, the markets shrugged off the U.S. government shutdown, at least for now," he added. "Historically, the impact of shutdowns has been trivial," although "the delay of critical economic data could increase uncertainty about the path forward for U.S. monetary policy – and therefore lift volatility," Rodda said. The government shut down much of its operations on Wednesday as deep partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal, setting off what could be a long, gruelling standoff. The combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst pushed gold to a fresh all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight, while also supporting U.S. Treasuries, sending yields sharply lower. The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% on Thursday in Tokyo trading hours. Gold paused for breath, last changing hands at around $3,865. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near the one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.672, slightly down from Wednesday's closing level. The dollar was little changed at 147.01 yen, following a 1.8% three-day tumble. The euro rose slightly to $1.1738, and sterling also ticked up to $1.34835. Oil prices edged higher on prospects of tighter sanctions on Russian crude, looking to snap a three-day losing streak to 16-week lows. Brent crude futures gained 0.2% to $65.50 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $61.92 a barrel. (Reporting by Kevin BucklandEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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SEOUL (Reuters) -Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rallied on Thursday after the South Korean chipmakers signed letters of intent to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data centers. Samsung Electronics rose more than 4% to its highest level since January 2021 and SK Hynix rose more than 8% to an all-time high, leading the benchmark KOSPI index's more than 2% gains to a record. Samsung Electronics' affiliates Samsung SDI, Samsung C&T and Samsung SDS also rose sharply in early Asia trade on partnerships with the U.S. artificial intelligence firm. (Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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SEOUL (Reuters) -Shares of South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rallied on Thursday after the chip makers signed a deal to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data centres, boosting their combined market capitalisation by $37 billion. Samsung Electronics climbed more than 4% to its firmest since January 2021 and SK Hynix jumped more than 12% to an all-time high, propelling the benchmark KOSPI index more than 3% to a record. OpenAI, participating in U.S. President Donald Trump's $500 billion Stargate artificial intelligence project, agreed on Wednesday to collaborate with the two South Korean chipmakers on building two data centres, a Korean-style Stargate. "There have been worries about high bandwidth memory prices falling next year on intensifying competition, but such worries will be easily resolved by the strategic partnership," Jeff Kim, an analyst at KB Securities, said in a note, expecting a surge in demand from the project. "Since Stargate is a key project led by President Trump, there also is a possibility the partnership will have a positive impact on South Korea's trade negotiations with the U.S.," Kim said. The global AI boom has been driving strong demand for semiconductors, which led South Korea's exports to rise in September at the fastest pace in 14 months despite a hit from U.S. tariffs, blowing past market expectations. South Korea hopes to formalise by late October a preliminary trade deal reached with Trump in July, lowering U.S. tariffs on South Korean imports in return for a $350 billion investment in the U.S. However, follow-up negotiations have stalled due to Seoul's concerns over the foreign exchange implications and structure of the investment package. Samsung Electronics' affiliates Samsung SDI, Samsung C&T and Samsung SDS also rose sharply in early Asia trade on partnerships with the U.S. artificial intelligence firm. (Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jacqueline Wong)

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SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's surplus on goods trade shrank sharply in August as shipments of gold plunged after a run of strong months, data showed on Thursday, while imports were up across the board. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the surplus on goods fell to A$1.8 billion ($1.19 billion) in August, from a revised A$6.6 billion in July. That was far below market forecasts for a A$6.2 billion surplus. Exports dived climbed 7.8%, led by a 47% drop in non-monetary gold. Imports rose 3.2%, with gains across consumer goods, aircraft, and telecom equipment. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina's President Javier Milei said proposed U.S. financial support for Argentina could include purchases of the country's debt in the secondary market and a profit-sharing arrangement. In an interview with local radio station Mitre, Milei said negotiations with the U.S. government are still ongoing, and the proposed aid package could consist of three blocks. The U.S. is currently in negotiations for a $20 billion swap line with Argentina's central bank and stands ready to do what is needed to support the South American country, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week. (Reporting by Maximilian Heath and Rodrigo Campos, Writing by Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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By Yuka Obayashi TOKYO (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Thursday, snapping a three-day losing streak and rebounding from 16-week lows on prospects of tighter sanctions on Russian crude, though expectations of higher supply from an OPEC+ output boost next month capped gains. Brent crude futures gained 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $65.50 a barrel by 0116 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed by 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $61.92 a barrel. On Wednesday, Brent and WTI both lost about 1%, with Brent closing at its lowest since June 5 and for WTI since May 30. "Buying interest emerged as WTI neared its $60 support level, while heightened geopolitical risks and speculation about tighter sanctions on Russian crude also lent support," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities. The Group of Seven nations' finance ministers said on Wednesday they will take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who are continuing to increase their purchases of Russian oil and those that are facilitating circumvention. Also, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. This will make it easier for Ukraine to hit refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure with the aim of depriving the Kremlin of revenue and oil, the WSJ said. Still, a U.S. government shutdown stoked worries about the global economy, while expectations of higher output by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers, weighed on sentiment, limiting the price gains, Nissan's Kikukawa said. U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday froze $26 billion for Democratic-leaning states, following through on a threat to use the government shutdown to target Democratic priorities. On the supply side, OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 bpd in November, triple the increase made for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, three sources familiar with the talks said. That would come even as U.S. and Asian demand starts to decline. The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week as refining activity and demand softened. Crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels to 416.5 million barrels in the week ended on September 26, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1 million-barrel rise. [EIA/S] (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Tom Hogue)

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