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By Dawn Kopecki, Jarrett Renshaw, Sabrina Valle and Ernest Scheyder NEW YORK, October 2 (Reuters) -Eli Lilly was asked to produce more insulin; Pfizer to produce more of its top-selling cancer drug Ibrance and its cholesterol drug Lipitor; and London-based AstraZeneca to consider a new headquarters in the U.S., according to two sources.  Pharmaceutical executives are getting near-daily calls from staff at the White House – including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles – and senior figures at agencies like Health & Human Services and the Commerce Department, two sources familiar with the matter said.   But pharmaceutical companies are the tip of the iceberg.  The Trump administration is pursuing deals across up to 30 industries, involving dozens of companies deemed critical to national or economic security, according to more than a half dozen people familiar with the talks.  In some cases, the administration is offering tariff relief in exchange for concessions, revenue guarantees, or taking equity stakes in troubled companies, among other types of help. The fast-paced dealmaking is designed to deliver political wins for U.S. President Donald Trump before the 2026 midterm elections, the sources said. On Tuesday, Trump announced a deal with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla to cut drug prices in exchange for relief from planned tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals. "The United States is done subsidizing healthcare of the rest of the world," Trump said in a event in the Oval Office.  Just as important as the deals themselves is the optics – they must be announced from the White House, two sources said.  Eli Lilly learned this the hard way when it excluded Trump from its announcement of two new manufacturing sites in September and got a call from the administration asking why they didn't allow the president to announce it himself. A spokesperson for Eli Lilly said it had not been asked to increase insulin production and that it takes "pride in regularly inviting White House officials to our announcements."  Pfizer and AstraZeneca declined to comment. The White House declined to comment on Eli Lilly's announcement or on specific details of the administration's plans.  It's all part of what White House spokesman Kush Desai has described as a "whole-of-government approach" to dealmaking "to safeguard our national and economic security." The plan is to use the broad powers of government to push companies to further Trump's goal of moving manufacturing to the United States, reducing dependence on China, strengthening supply chains for critical products, and contributing to the government's coffers, according to six people familiar with the discussions.  Administration outreach has touched disparate corners of the economy including semiconductors, AI, quantum computing, critical minerals, ship building, energy, battery production, pharmaceuticals and freight, the sources said.  The full breadth of the administration's plans have not previously been reported. Taken together, the planned interventions in the American economy reverse decades of hands-off approach to private enterprise, a defining feature of American capitalism.  "It's amazing that a Republican administration is taking us farther away from traditional capitalism than any other Democratic administration," said John Coffee, professor of corporate law at Columbia University in New York.  $250 BILLION IN FINANCING The Trump administration is looking to a little-known federal agency, the International Development Finance Corporation, to play a major role in overseeing and financing the plan, two of the people said.  Established in Trump's first term with the BUILD Act of 2018, the agency was meant to provide low-cost financing for food, health and other projects in developing nations.   But a proposal sent by the agency to Congress in June would significantly expand its authority and reach. The bill would more than quadruple its financing power to $250 billion from $60 billion as well as establish an equity fund tasked with shoring up key sectors, including infrastructure, energy, critical and rare earth minerals and supply chains – pretty much anything "in the economic and national security interests of the United States," according to a copy of the plan reviewed by Reuters.  The agency is still waiting for Congress to approve its budget as well as the confirmation of Apollo Global Management co-founder Leon Black's son, Ben, to run it. A spokesman for Black said he couldn't comment on International Development Finance Corporation matters before his Senate confirmation. An International Development Finance Corporation official declined to comment on specific deals, but said its mandate is to "mobilize private sector investment for projects that advance U.S. foreign policy and economic interests, including projects that reduce reliance on critical minerals and materials controlled by China."  The administration is also planning to use the $550 billion Japan is giving the U.S. as part of its trade agreement to seed a new U.S. Investment Accelerator run by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a U.S. official told Reuters. Japan has until the end of Trump's term to provide the funding.  Both the Commerce Department's Investment Accelerator and the Development Finance Corporation are said to replace a sovereign wealth fund Trump had originally planned, but has since scrapped, three sources told Reuters.  FEDERAL AGENCIES BECOME DEALMAKERS  At HHS, the search for deals is being led by Chris Klomp, a former Silicon Valley healthcare investor, and John Brooks, a former health policy consultant, with Wiles taking a hand in the biggest pharma deals.  When asked for interviews with Klomp and Brooks, an HHS spokesperson referred Reuters' request to the White House. Lutnick, a former bond trader who rose to become chairman of financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, is Trump's dealmaker-in-chief. He has overseen most of the administration’s biggest deals, including its 10% equity stake in Intel and the "golden share" Commerce received as part of Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel in June.   Lutnick declined to comment through a spokesman, but he has emerged as a forceful proponent of the U.S. taking stakes in companies. "If we're going to give you the money, we want a piece of the action," Lutnick told CNBC in August.  He's tapped two Wall Street dealmakers, tech banker Michael Grimes, who joined the administration from Morgan Stanley a few months ago, and M&A lawyer David Shapiro, a former partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, to head up some of the deals, two of the people said. J.P. Morgan, which helped put together the government's deal with rare earths mining company MP Materials, said in a recent company podcast that it’s convened a task force of commercial bankers, goverment relations professionals and investment bankers to field all the corporate client calls it’s received since that deal was announced in July.   “We've had no less than 100 calls with clients to talk about the MP transaction as well as what this means for other industries,” said Andrew Castaldo, J.P. Morgan’s co-head of mid-cap M&A. “And we've had numerous trips down to Washington to explore those opportunities with the government.”  Shapiro and Grimes both declined to comment through a spokesperson.  Lutnick plans to hire more senior dealmakers from Wall Street in the coming weeks for the Investment Accelerator, the U.S. official said.   At the White House, newly installed supply chain czar David Copley has been running many of the negotiations, while Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg is leading conversations with defense contractors, the two sources said.    Feinberg and Copley declined to comment, and the Pentagon referred Reuters' request to the White House. Some companies have welcomed the approach, sensing the opportunity to tap federal dollars and benefit from …

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By Lucia Mutikani and Ann Saphir (Reuters) -Alternate data from public and private sources, a substitute for official statistics delayed by a government shutdown, showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September with sluggish hiring but no change in an unemployment rate economists see as influenced by falling numbers of foreign-born workers. The federal government's 15th shutdown since 1981, with some 750,000 workers furloughed, has delayed publication of key reports including the September unemployment and jobs data due on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key reference point for Federal Reserve policymakers who meet in a little under four weeks to decide whether to cut interest rates again.  Also delayed so far are the weekly jobless claims report and factory orders and construction spending data for August. While the data could still be available for the Fed's October 28-29 meeting depending on the length of the shutdown, alternative data, such as a new "real-time" estimate of the unemployment rate issued on Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is likely to attract more attention from Fed officials, economists and analysts trying to understand the economy while the government is idle. The Chicago Fed report, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun. But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market that is likely to keep the Fed poised to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The Fed's rate cut discussion now leans heavily on policymakers' views of whether the labor market is holding up, with the 4.3% jobless rate considered around full employment, or is at risk of a sharp rupture. The Fed last month cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% after job gains slowed sharply and the unemployment rate ticked up in August.  "We're going to go off of the data we have," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Fox News' America Reports on Thursday, adding that to him the bank's new unemployment number "indicates some steadiness in the labor market." The Chicago Fed's new data series, updated twice monthly, showed the hiring rate for unemployed workers dipping slightly and the rate of layoffs and other job separations up a bit.  That put "limited upward pressure" on the unemployment rate, the bank said.  LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING Earlier this week, data from payroll processor ADP indicated private payrolls fell 32,000 in September. The ADP data may also take on added weight in the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics updates, and was cited by Fed Governor Christopher Waller in August as helping ground internal Fed staff estimates that showed "continued deterioration" in the job market beginning in May. New data issued Thursday by technology firm Intuit, based on a sample of roughly 400,000 of small businesses from its QuickBooks platform, showed firms with from one to nine employees shed more than 48,000 jobs in September, a decline of around 0.37%. Firms of that size have seen a steady drop in employment since early 2024, with average monthly employment for the latest quarter down about 400,000 from a peak of 13.1 million. U.S. employers meanwhile announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans this year were the lowest since 2009, according to the latest report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that provided further signs of a labor market at a standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of tougher immigration policy and technological advances. The firm said planned job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064 in September. Employers have so far this year announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.  Hiring plans so far this year have totaled 204,939, the lowest year-to-date since 2009 when the economy was just emerging from the Great Recession.  "Right now, we're dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases and a transformative new technology," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring." But there are conflicting signals, and a puzzle over whether weak job growth is due to a slowing economy or a lack of workers, or both. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year, yet the jobless rate has been fairly stable. Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade policy and the rise of artificial intelligence have reduced demand for workers. But the administration's immigration crackdown may also be limiting the availability of labor. In its latest survey, the National Federation of Independent Business reported that 58% of independent business owners planned to hire, more than in August, but that nearly 90% of that group "reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill," up seven percentage points from the month before.  Should the shutdown persist into next week, reports due later this month, including consumer price, retail sales, housing starts and producer inflation data for September, will probably not be published, impacting decision-making by households, investors and policymakers.   (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Jamie Freed and Andrea Ricci)

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By Shariq Khan NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell about 2% to their lowest in four months on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day, due to concerns about oversupply in the market ahead of a meeting of the OPEC+ group over the weekend. Brent crude futures fell $1.20, or 1.8%, to $64.15 a barrel by 2:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT), the lowest since June 2. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.30, or 2.1%, to settle at $60.48 a barrel, the lowest since May 30. OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple the increase for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.  Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group, said some banks, such as Macquarie, have put out predictions of a super glut in oil markets, which have weighed on sentiment. "The writing is on the wall," investment research firm HFI Research wrote in a blogpost. "US oil inventories will build into year-end, and more global visible inventory builds will take place. Couple that with higher OPEC+ crude exports, and the end result is a persistently weaker oil market environment," they wrote. The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week as refining activity and demand softened.  Oversupply concerns have been compounded by signs of weak demand, PVM Energy analysts wrote. "Oil demand forecasts diverge considerably, but on average, they show this year's figure revised down by 150,000 bpd between January and September," they noted. The Group of Seven nations' finance ministers said on Wednesday they will take steps to increase pressure on Russia by targeting those who are continuing to boost purchases of Russian oil. Limiting oil's losses, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, two officials told Reuters on Wednesday, confirming an earlier Wall Street Journal report. This will make it easier for Ukraine to hit refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure with the aim of depriving the Kremlin of revenue and oil, the WSJ said. "There is some concern in the market again that Russian oil could get disrupted," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS. But as long as there are no disruptions yet, the impact on prices will likely be minor, he said.   Stockpiling demand from China, the world's largest crude oil importer, also underpinned oil prices, limiting the downside, traders said. Meanwhile, the largest U.S. fuel conduit, the Colonial Pipeline, restarted after a brief outage on Thursday due to unplanned system maintenance, a company spokesperson said. (Reporting by Shariq Khan, Anna Hirtenstein, Shadia Nasralla, Yuka Obayashi and Siyi Liu; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski and Cynthia Osterman)

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By Manya Saini and Arasu Kannagi Basil (Reuters) -Credit score modeling company Fair Isaac Corp, widely known as FICO, surged on Thursday after unveiling plans to sell its credit scores directly to mortgage lenders and resellers, cutting out credit bureaus that serve as intermediaries and rattling major bureau stocks. Shares of Experian, Equifax and TransUnion fell amid concerns that the move could erode their revenue. Mortgage lenders that previously relied on these firms to obtain credit scores will be able to buy them directly, reducing dependence on the bureaus. "This new distribution model will allow lenders to avoid paying the current about 100% markup the credit bureaus currently charge for the FICO scores," analysts at brokerage Raymond James said.   The FICO score is used by nearly 90% of U.S. lenders to judge a borrower’s creditworthiness. Higher scores signal lower risk of default. The company said giving lenders and mortgage resellers direct access to FICO scores would boost competition and make pricing more transparent in the market. The firm's latest move was lauded by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, who said in a post on social media platform X that the company has generated "creative solutions" to help the American consumer. Pulte had earlier this year criticized the company over its pricing as he pushed to broaden the use of rival scoring models in mortgage lending. Following his comment, FICO shares extended gains and were last up 23%. If the gains in the shares, which hit their highest since May 2025, hold, it would erase most of the losses for the year.  Citigroup analysts said selling scores directly to lenders would cut out the margin that companies such as Experian and Equifax make on the FICO credit score.  The new model could hit credit bureau earnings by an average of 10% to 15%, Jefferies analysts warned in a note. "For the bureaus to take price, they will now have to directly negotiate with the lenders, and compete with each other."  Experian shares closed down 4% in London. U.S.-listed Equifax fell 8%, while TransUnion was last down 10%.  Experian, Equifax did not immediately respond to requests for comment, while TransUnion declined to comment. INDUSTRY SHIFT  FICO says its plan would bring immediate cost savings to lenders, brokers and other industry participants, while noting firms can continue to work through the credit bureaus. "This change eliminates unnecessary markups on the FICO Score and puts pricing model choice in the hands of those who use FICO scores to drive mortgage decisions," CEO Will Lansing said.  The change could also spark more competition in credit scoring. The Mortgage Bankers Association welcomed the move and said FICO’s new program is a step in the right direction but it is to be seen whether this will result in materially lower costs. FICO's stock had taken a hit when Pulte allowed lenders to use VantageScore for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. VantageScore, founded in 2006, is a joint venture between credit bureaus Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. The agency's decision introduced direct competition for FICO in the mortgage market and raised doubts about its ability to continue raising prices. Analysts believe that the latest move will help allay some of those concerns. (Reporting by Manya Saini and Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru and Samuel Indyk in London; Editing by Arun Koyyur, Nupur Anand and Tasim Zahid)

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By Sinéad Carew and Niket Nishant (Reuters) -The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq indexes were up slightly on Thursday afternoon, as investors monitored private labor market data in the second day of a U.S. government shutdown.  While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had hit intraday records earlier in the day, they pared gains on uncertainty about the U.S. shutdown and the jobs market.  The benchmark index's valuation was still around its highest levels since 2020.  And with no official government data available because of the shutdown, investors were monitoring information from other souces. A report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September that but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009. It followed the previous day's weaker-than-expected ADP National Employment Report. "The market is looking at all of that against the backdrop of what was already weak job data in recent months to try to gauge the real path forward for the labor market from here," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors. While the shutdown was not a shock and investors have been soothed by the knowledge that such closures have typically not hurt the market in the past, Baird noted that it still caused worries. "Given how polarized the two (political) parties are right now, and both seem to be staking out their respective positions, it wouldn't be surprising if this one drags out a little bit longer," he said, adding that "in the absence of earnings data and broad economic data, there's not been a catalyst to drive a move higher or a selloff."  At 2:14 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 109.82 points, or 0.24%, at 46,550.92, the S&P 500 gained 8.17 points, or 0.12%, to 6,719.37 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 90.81 points, or 0.40%, to 22,845.46.  Meanwhile, it did not help that Tesla was down 3.8%. The electric vehicle maker gave up initial gains after a strong quarterly deliveries report, as some analysts flagged risks to sales in the upcoming quarters due to the withdrawal of the $7,500 federal tax credit. The S&P 500 healthcare sector fell 0.4%, on track to break its four-day streak of gains.  Earlier in the session, the S&P and the Nasdaq indexes hit their intraday record highs of 6,731.94 and 22,900.60, respectively. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio has climbed to 23.1. The tech sector, up 0.6%, was the biggest boost to the S&P 500, with Nvidia and  Broadcom leading the charge.  The stocks catapulted the broader semiconductor index to a record high. It was last up close to 2% and helped boost the Nasdaq. Consumer discretionary stocks fell 0.4% and were the biggest drag on the S&P 500 due to Tesla's selloff.  Shares of credit bureaus Equifax and TransUnion were down 7.7% and 9.7%, respectively, after FICO launched a program that could allow mortgage lenders to gain access to credit scores without relying on the bureaus. FICO surged 19.6% to top the benchmark index. Occidental Petroleum said it would sell its petrochemical division to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion. Shares of the oil and gas producer fell 7.6%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 420 new highs and 82 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,441 stocks rose and 2,122 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.15-to-1 ratio.  The S&P 500 posted 33 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 125 new highs and 64 new lows. (Reporting by Sinéad Carew in New York and Niket Nishant and Sukriti Gupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Matthew Lewis)

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Alphabet's Google said hackers are sending extortion emails to an unspecified number of executives from various companies, claiming to have stolen sensitive data from their Oracle business applications. In a statement, Google said a group claiming affiliation with the ransomware gang cl0p was sending emails to "executives at numerous organizations claiming to have stolen sensitive data from their Oracle E-Business Suite." Google cautioned that it "does not currently have sufficient evidence to definitively assess the veracity of these claims." Cynthia Kaiser, the head of cybersecurity firm Halcyon's Ransomware Research Center, said her company had seen extortion demands "in the seven or eight figure range," with the highest coming in at "$50 million." Kaiser noted some dispute over the connection to cl0p but said there are early indications that the perpetrators are potentially connected to the group. "There's so much overlap amongst all these groups, and there are copycats across the ecosystem," Kaiser said, adding that additional information in the coming days will help paint a clearer picture. Messages seeking comment from cl0p and Oracle were not returned. Google described the email campaign as "high-volume" but declined to share further details. (Reporting by Raphael Satter in Washington and AJ Vicens in Detroit, Michigan.Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Diane Craft)

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By Iain Withers and Koh Gui Qing NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks gained and gold traded near record highs on Thursday as investors took in their stride the potential ramifications of a U.S. government shutdown, while a weak private U.S. labor market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors have been largely sanguine about the shutdown's impact on the markets and economy, helped by data of past shutdowns that showed limited fallouts. Morgan Stanley, for example, said U.S. share prices have risen an average 4.4% while real U.S. economic growth has expanded 2.2% during shutdowns in the past. Instead, investors are focused on how much the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates this year, and whether the roaring U.S. stock market is due for a short-term pullback in the near future. Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, said sector sub-indices for the S&P 500 index are showing a marked correlation with downside risks. "Every other time they have done so since 2023, the S&P has declined by 5-18% in the following weeks," Colas and Rabe said. "This is not an outright 'sell' signal, but history says to be selective here."  The S&P 500, which has risen 14% so far this year, was flat after briefly touching a record high of 6,731.94 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% after also hitting an all-time high of 22,900.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was also little changed. A protracted U.S. government shutdown could mean that the release of key official data on employment and inflation is delayed or disrupted, clouding the picture on the health of the world's biggest economy and the path for interest rates. A monthly payrolls report seems unlikely now to be released on Friday, putting an ADP employment report that showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September into sharper focus. Traders are now pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of the year as almost a done deal. "I hope they sort this out rapidly," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at asset manager Carmignac, referring to the government shutdown, adding that inflation data was also due ahead of the Fed's next meeting. "It's like a blind man walking with a blind dog," he said. SHUTDOWN ANGST HURTS DOLLAR, BOOSTS GOLD The MSCI's broadest index of global stocks was up about 0.1% on Thursday, after European stocks hit another record high, up about 0.5%. Tech shares in Asia had earlier rallied, helping drive up the region's stock indexes, partly lifted by news that South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres.  Gold , which have been buoyed by a combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst, took a breather and slipped 0.5% after reaching another all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight. The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% overnight, and was last at 3.5449%. "As is often the case, fresh highs are likely to beget yet more fresh highs here, with momentum still firmly with the bulls, and the fundamental case for further upside in PMs (precious metals) a solid one too," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near a one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.864, up 0.1% from Wednesday's closing level. The dollar was little changed against the yen at 147.165 yen, after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signalled confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike were falling into place in remarks at an industry event. The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1717, while sterling fell 0.3% at $1.3441. Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day due to concerns about oversupply in the market. [O/R] Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $64.18 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also dipped 1.9% to $60.6 a barrel.   (Reporting by Iain Withers in London and Kevin Buckland in TokyoEditing by Deepa Babington and Nick Zieminski)

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By Lucia Mutikani and Ann Saphir (Reuters) -Alternate data from public and private sources, a substitute for official statistics delayed by a government shutdown, showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September with sluggish hiring but no change in an unemployment rate economists see as influenced by falling numbers of foreign-born workers. The federal government's 15th shutdown since 1981, with some 750,000 workers furloughed, has delayed publication of key reports including the September unemployment and jobs data due on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a key reference point for Federal Reserve policymakers who meet in a little under four weeks to decide whether to cut interest rates again. Also delayed so far are the weekly jobless claims report and factory orders and construction spending data for August. While the data could still be available for the Fed's October 28-29 meeting depending on the length of the shutdown, alternative data, such as a new "real-time" estimate of the unemployment rate issued on Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is likely to attract more attention from Fed officials, economists and analysts trying to understand the economy while the government is idle. The Chicago Fed report, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun. But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market that is likely to keep the Fed poised to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The Fed's rate cut discussion now leans heavily on policymakers' views of whether the labor market is holding up, with the 4.3% jobless rate considered around full employment, or is at risk of a sharp rupture. The Fed last month cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% after job gains slowed sharply and the unemployment rate ticked up in August.  "The data dogs are howling because we are not getting our usual supply of information," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Marketplace Radio on Wednesday. "The best number is the BLS number, but if we don't have that, we're going to use the Chicago Fed number and other numbers."  The Chicago Fed's new data series, updated twice monthly, showed the hiring rate for unemployed workers dipping slightly and the rate of layoffs and other job separations up a bit.  That put "limited upward pressure" on the unemployment rate, the bank said.  LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING Earlier this week, data from payroll processor ADP indicated private payrolls fell 32,000 in September. The ADP data may also take on added weight in the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics updates, and was cited by Fed Governor Christopher Waller in August as helping ground internal Fed staff estimates that showed "continued deterioration" in the job market beginning in May. New data issued Thursday by technology firm Intuit, based on a sample of roughly 400,000 of small businesses from its QuickBooks platform, showed firms with from one to nine employees shed more than 48,000 jobs in September, a decline of around 0.37%. Firms of that size have seen a steady drop in employment since early 2024, with average monthly employment for the latest quarter down about 400,000 from a peak of 13.1 million. U.S. employers meanwhile announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans this year were the lowest since 2009, according to the latest report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that provided further signs of a labor market at a standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of tougher immigration policy and technological advances. The firm said planned job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064 in September. Employers have so far this year announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.  Hiring plans so far this year have totaled 204,939, the lowest year-to-date since 2009 when the economy was just emerging from the Great Recession.  "Right now, we're dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases and a transformative new technology," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring." But there are conflicting signals, and a puzzle over whether weak job growth is due to a slowing economy or a lack of workers, or both. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year, yet the jobless rate has been fairly stable. Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade policy and the rise of artificial intelligence have reduced demand for workers. But the administration's immigration crackdown may also be limiting the availability of labor. In its latest survey the National Federation of Independent Business reported that 58% of independent business owners planned to hire, more than in August, but that nearly 90% of that group "reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill," up seven percentage points from the month before.  Should the shutdown persist into next week, reports due later this month, including consumer price, retail sales, housing starts and producer inflation data for September, will probably not be published, impacting decision making by households, investors and policymakers.   (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Jamie Freed and Andrea Ricci)

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By Akash Sriram and Abhirup Roy (Reuters) -Tesla announced record quarterly deliveries on Thursday, but concerns that an expiration of the U.S. tax credit for EVs would turn a rush of buying into a trickle weighed on its shares. The Elon Musk-led carmaker went all in to drive sales before the withdrawal of the $7,500 federal tax credit, using a combination of discounts, financing deals, social media ads and customer emails. "I'm skeptical that this will be sustainable and I think we could see a soft couple of quarters," said Elliot Johnson, chief investment officer at Evolve ETFs, which manages investments in Tesla. The sales surge reflected pulled-forward demand, possibly to lock in incentives, rather than growing consumer interest, Johnson said, adding it would not be irrational for investors to "sell the news" and buy again next year. Tesla shares were down 3.4% in afternoon trading. The stock has rallied recently – up nearly 14% this year as of Wednesday's close – after the company's board proposed a mega pay package for Musk, who has also bought more shares. Tesla, like its rivals, received the credits from the government and used them to offer attractive leases. Following the expiry, Tesla has raised lease prices for its vehicles. The prices of Tesla vehicles, excluding the credit, remained unchanged. On Thursday, the company said it delivered 497,099 vehicles for the three months ended September, up 7.4% from 462,890 a year earlier, and well above Wall Street expectations of 443,919 vehicles. The deliveries included 481,166 Model 3 compact sedans and its best-selling Model Y crossovers. The carmaker is set to report quarterly results on October 22. Strong demand for its refreshed Model Y helped sales in China, said Troy Teslike, an independent Tesla researcher. It also began delivering the six-seat Model Y L in China in September, a family-focused variant aimed at boosting demand in the world's largest EV market. Europe, however, remained a weak spot as rivals aggressively promoted plug-in hybrids, while Chinese EV brands started gaining ground in the hyper-competitive market. The company's European sales, including the UK, fell 22.5% from a year earlier in August, cutting its market share to 1.5%, according to data from the region's Automobile Manufacturers' Association. Tesla's full-year 2025 deliveries are projected to be about 1.61 million, roughly 10% below 2024, according to Visible Alpha. Tesla will need to deliver 389,498 vehicles in the December quarter to meet that projection. Meanwhile, smaller rival Rivian on Thursday lowered the midpoint of its annual deliveries forecast, but beat estimates for quarterly deliveries owing to a boost in demand from buyers rushing to take advantage of tax credits. MUSK AND TESLA Tesla holdings account for the bulk of Musk's wealth and a recent surge in the company's stock price helped his net worth breach the $500 billion mark on Wednesday, bolstering his position as the world's richest person. The company's board has proposed a shareholder vote on a new CEO award that could grant Musk about 12% of the company, worth up to $1 trillion, if performance and valuation targets are met, including delivering 20 million vehicles over a 10-year period. The billionaire has been positioning Tesla more as a technology company than an EV maker by focusing on AI-based self-driving systems, robotaxis and humanoid robots. CHEAPER MODELS Tesla has delayed rolling out the lower-cost Model Y in the U.S., pushing the timing by several months, with an eventual plan to build the variant in China and Europe.  Tesla said in June that it had made "first builds" of the vehicle, but would start selling it in the fourth quarter and ramp up output slower than planned. Analysts said Tesla's ability to cushion a post-credit slowdown will depend heavily on its push into lower-priced models. "The challenge now is dealing with the potential slowdown that follows, and that's where a new, more affordable model becomes crucial to keeping momentum going," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, who personally owns Tesla shares. The stripped-down version is designed to be roughly 20% cheaper to produce than the refreshed Model Y and could scale to about 250,000 units a year in the U.S. by 2026, sources told Reuters earlier this year. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

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By Iain Withers and Koh Gui Qing NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks gained and gold traded near record highs on Thursday as investors took in their stride the potential ramifications of a U.S. government shutdown, while a weak private U.S. labor market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors have been largely sanguine about the shutdown's impact on the markets and economy, helped by data of past shutdowns that showed limited fallouts. Morgan Stanley, for example, said U.S. share prices have risen an average 4.4% while real U.S. economic growth has expanded 2.2% during shutdowns in the past. Instead, investors are focused on how much the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates this year, and whether the roaring U.S. stock market is due for a short-term pullback in the near future. Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, said sector sub-indices for the S&P 500 index are showing a marked correlation with downside risks. "Every other time they have done so since 2023, the S&P has declined by 5-18% in the following weeks," Colas and Rabe said. "This is not an outright 'sell' signal, but history says to be selective here."  The S&P 500, which has risen 14% so far this year, was flat after briefly touching a record high of 6,731.94 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% after also hitting an all-time high of 22,900.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was also little changed. A protracted U.S. government shutdown could mean that the release of key official data on employment and inflation is delayed or disrupted, clouding the picture on the health of the world's biggest economy and the path for interest rates. A monthly payrolls report seems unlikely now to be released on Friday, putting an ADP employment report that showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September into sharper focus. Traders are now pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of the year as almost a done deal. "I hope they sort this out rapidly," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at asset manager Carmignac, referring to the government shutdown, adding that inflation data was also due ahead of the Fed's next meeting. "It's like a blind man walking with a blind dog," he said. SHUTDOWN ANGST HURTS DOLLAR, BOOSTS GOLD The MSCI's broadest index of global stocks was up about 0.1% on Thursday, after European stocks hit another record high, up about 0.5%. Tech shares in Asia had earlier rallied, helping drive up the region's stock indexes, partly lifted by news that South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres.  Gold , which have been buoyed by a combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst, took a breather and slipped 0.5% after reaching another all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight. The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% overnight, and was last at 3.5449%. "As is often the case, fresh highs are likely to beget yet more fresh highs here, with momentum still firmly with the bulls, and the fundamental case for further upside in PMs (precious metals) a solid one too," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near a one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.864, up 0.1% from Wednesday's closing level. The dollar was little changed against the yen at 147.165 yen, after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signalled confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike were falling into place in remarks at an industry event. The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1717, while sterling fell 0.3% at $1.3441. Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day due to concerns about oversupply in the market. [O/R] Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $64.18 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also dipped 1.9% to $60.6 a barrel.   (Reporting by Iain Withers in London and Kevin Buckland in TokyoEditing by Deepa Babington and Nick Zieminski)

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