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By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar wobbled on Tuesday as investors braced for a possible U.S. government shutdown that would delay release of the crucial jobs report this week, while the Australian dollar rose after the central bank struck a cautious tone on inflation. The Aussie gained 0.49% to $0.66075 after the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady as expected. The bank said recent data suggested inflation might be higher than forecast in the third quarter and the economic outlook remained uncertain. This year, the RBA cut rates in February, May and August, with markets seeing little chance of a further easing this week. A high reading on monthly consumer prices had argued for waiting for the full third-quarter inflation report due in late October. "The RBA statement leaned on the hawkish side by noting the tension in the economic data flow and the upside surprise to inflation from last week," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "We retain our call for a 25bp rate cut in November but note a cut is not guaranteed and dependent on the Q3 25 CPI print." The Aussie has gained over 6% this year, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar and strong risk appetite. For September, it has advanced a more modest 0.6% after hitting an 11-month high two weeks ago. Investor focus is on the looming U.S. shutdown, with the government funding due to expire at midnight on Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal. The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt economic data releases in the event of a partial government shutdown, including closely watched employment data for September. Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Société Générale, said the initial reaction could be a sell-off in risky assets and a flight to safety, which may lead to lower Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve. The payrolls report, crucial for decision-making by policymakers at the Federal Reserve, is scheduled for Friday, and a delay could leave the central bank flying blind on the labour market. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that emerging signs of weakness in the labor market drove his support for cutting rates at the most recent policy meeting. Traders are currently pricing in 42 basis points of Fed easing by December and a total of 104 basis points by the end of 2026, about 25 bps less than levels seen in mid-September. "If a shutdown is brief, the Fed will largely ignore it," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "However, a prolonged shutdown (more than two weeks), increases the downside risk to growth and raises the likelihood of a more accommodative Fed." That could put the dollar in a vulnerable position in the near term, with the broader U.S. currency index, which has dropped 9.7% this year, at 97.928. The euro was a shade lower at $1.172, while sterling was at $1.3436. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were little changed at 4.142%, after dropping 4.6 bps on Monday. They have dropped 8.3 bps for the month. "While a shutdown could delay Friday’s non-farms payrolls report, historically, the impact on GDP has been modest, as any disruptions are typically made up immediately after the shutdown ends," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. The Japanese yen was slightly weaker at 148.72 per U.S. dollar as investors considered the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions for its September policy meeting that showed the central bank debated the possibility of a near-term rate hike. At its September meeting, the BOJ kept rates steady but faced dissents from two board members who voted for a rate hike. Traders are increasingly gearing up for the BOJ to hike interest rates again with a move in December priced in at a 60% chance. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in SingaporeEditing by Shri Navaratnam and Lincoln Feast.)

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(Reuters) -OpenAI generated around $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, about 16% more than it generated all of last year, The Information reported on Monday, citing financial disclosures to shareholders. OpenAI said it burned $2.5 billion, in large part due to its research and development costs for developing artificial intelligence and for running ChatGPT, the report added. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. OpenAI did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for a comment. Research and development cost the ChatGPT maker $6.7 billion in the first half, the report said, adding that it had about $17.5 billion in cash and securities at the end of the period. OpenAI looks to meet its full-year revenue target of $13 billion and a cash-burn target of $8.5 billion, the report added. In August, Reuters reported that OpenAI was in early-stage discussions about a stock sale that would allow employees to cash out and likely valuing the company at about $500 billion. Nvidia said last week it will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI and supply data‑center chips. (Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)

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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift With a U.S. government shutdown and the imposition of sweeping tariffs looming, President Donald Trump knew just what markets needed. More tariffs. In what's becoming a regular ritual, Asian markets were the first to digest overnight announcements from the White House on new U.S. import duties, this time on bathroom vanities, lumber, cabinets, and other goods. Trump's proclamation cited "national defence" for the tariffs on foreign furniture, due to start on October 14 and following duties on trucks and drugs that go into effect on Wednesday. And there has yet to be a breakthrough in talks between Trump and congressional Democrats to forestall a government shutdown the same day. Anxiety about a shutdown pushed safe-haven gold to a fresh record. Data out of China and Japan hinted at the toll that trade uncertainty is wrecking on the region's biggest economies. China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, official data showed, while a separate report showed Japan's factory output fell more than expected in August. The Australian dollar added slightly to gains on the day after the nation's central bank held rates steady, as widely expected, and said uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated. Asian share markets took it all in stride, with MSCI broadest ex-Japan gauge adding to its more than 5% jump in September, the best in a year. If Washington does go dark, it would halt the release on Friday of all-important non-farm payrolls data for September, a key input for the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve. That puts the spotlight on other U.S. labour reports, including today's JOLTS data. Analysts expect the figures to show job openings held firm at around 7.18 million in August. Equity contracts pointed to an opening in the red for European markets. Pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.07%, German DAX futures slid 0.06%, and FTSE futures edged 0.08% lower. U.S. futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were flat. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: – U.S. consumer confidence for September, JOLTS job openings for August – Flash CPIs for Germany, France – British Q2 GDP – Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Boston Fed President Susan Collins (Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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(Reuters) -OpenAI generated around $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, about 16% more than it generated all of last year, The Information reported on Monday, citing financial disclosures to shareholders. OpenAI said it burned $2.5 billion, in a large part due to its research and development costs for developing artificial intelligence and for running ChatGPT, the report added. Reuters could not immediately verify the report. (Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)

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By Anjana Anil and Emily Chow (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Tuesday as another anticipated production increase by OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey reinforced the outlook for a looming supply surplus. Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring on Tuesday, fell 54 cents, or 0.8%, to $67.43 a barrel by 0320 GMT. The more active contract for December was down 53 cents, or 0.8%, at $66.56 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $62.95 a barrel, down 50 cents, or 0.8%. The drops extend Monday's falls when both Brent and WTI settled more than 3% lower after logging their sharpest daily declines since August 1, 2025. Oil's falls came as Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports over the weekend and amid reports that OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production for November at its meeting this weekend, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note to clients. In a meeting scheduled for Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, three sources familiar with the talks said. "Although (OPEC+ is) under their quota anyway, the market still does not seem to like the fact that more oil is coming in," Marex analyst Ed Meir said. Meanwhile, crude oil flowed on Saturday through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in 2-1/2 years, after an interim deal broke a deadlock, Iraq's oil ministry said. The market has remained cautious in recent weeks, balancing supply risks, mainly arising from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries, with concerns of oversupply and weak demand. Adding to the bearish sentiment, the potential risk of a U.S. government shutdown has raised demand concerns, said ANZ analysts in a note on Tuesday. A U.S. government shutdown could disrupt a wide range of services and delay economic data releases, including the Friday-scheduled payrolls report, which is crucial for decision-making by policymakers at the Federal Reserve. Elsewhere, U.S. President Donald Trump won Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's support for a U.S.-backed Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas's stance remained uncertain. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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(Corrects new export orders sub-index contracted for the 17th month, not ninth month, and removes incorrect input prices reading, in paragraph 13) BEIJING (Reuters) -China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, an official survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting producers are waiting for further stimulus to boost domestic demand, as well as clarity on a U.S. trade deal. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.8 in September versus 49.4 in August, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction, but beating a median forecast of 49.6 in a Reuters poll. The prolonged slump underlines the twin pressures on China's economy: domestic demand has failed to mount a durable recovery in the years since the pandemic while U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have squeezed Chinese factories as well as overseas firms that buy components. All the same, a separate private-sector survey of factory managers showed the fastest expansion since March, buoyed by rising new orders and accelerated production growth, including an uptick in new export orders. The two surveys cover different pools of producers, with the NBS placing more emphasis on large- and medium-sized firms focused on domestic sales, while RatingDog General PMI, compiled by S&P Global, which came in at 51.2, up from 50.5 in August, includes a larger share of export-orientated private companies. "The rebound reflects a seasonal uptick as the summer disruptions are behind us and the government becomes more supportive," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to the official PMI's headline figure. China's economic momentum is marked by swings, he added: a strong first quarter from early stimulus, a slower midyear, followed by a fourth quarter rebound as the government ramps up support measures to meet growth targets. UNCERTAINTY OVER U.S. TRADE DEAL Policymakers rolled out a series of consumer loan subsidies in mid-August, a decision vindicated by separate factory output and retail sales data for the month, which saw their weakest growth in 12 months. Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said last week a range of monetary policy tools to support the economy remained available, but refrained from following the U.S. Federal Reserve with a rate cut, as some economists speculated the central bank might. Despite signs the $19 trillion economy is losing momentum, authorities appear in no hurry to roll out major stimulus measures, given resilient exports and a stock market rally, market watchers say. Adding to signs of a slowdown, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, fell to 50.0 from 50.3 in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), its worst reading since November. The NBS composite PMI of manufacturing and non-manufacturing came in at 50.6 in September, compared with 50.5 in August. The new export orders sub-index contracted for the seventeenth straight month, while employment and factory gate prices also remained firmly in the doldrums. The data point to producers slashing prices to find buyers overseas, despite the fact that China's exports to regional rival India hit an all-time high in August, according to customs data, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records. But no other country comes close to the consumption power of the U.S., where Chinese producers sell more than $400 billion worth of goods annually, accounting for around 14% of total exports. Chinese leader Xi Jinping phoned Trump on September 19 for the first time in three months, and while the call appeared to ease tensions, it remains unclear whether it yielded the expected agreement on popular short-video app TikTok, which analysts see as key to a broader trade deal. Disagreements on technical details appeared to be weighing on negotiations, as Chinese and U.S. trade officials met again last Thursday to revisit issues discussed in talks before this month's Madrid summit, where a framework TikTok deal was reached. (Reporting by Joe Cash; Editing by Sam Holmes and Shri Navaratnam)

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(Corrects new export orders sub-index contracted for the 17th month, not ninth month, and removes incorrect input prices reading, in paragraph 13) BEIJING (Reuters) -China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, an official survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting producers are waiting for further stimulus to boost domestic demand, as well as clarity on a U.S. trade deal. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.8 in September versus 49.4 in August, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction, but beating a median forecast of 49.6 in a Reuters poll. The prolonged slump underlines the twin pressures on China's economy: domestic demand has failed to mount a durable recovery in the years since the pandemic while U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have squeezed Chinese factories as well as overseas firms that buy components. All the same, a separate private-sector survey of factory managers showed the fastest expansion since March, buoyed by rising new orders and accelerated production growth, including an uptick in new export orders. The two surveys cover different pools of producers, with the NBS placing more emphasis on large- and medium-sized firms focused on domestic sales, while RatingDog General PMI, compiled by S&P Global, which came in at 51.2, up from 50.5 in August, includes a larger share of export-orientated private companies. "The rebound reflects a seasonal uptick as the summer disruptions are behind us and the government becomes more supportive," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to the official PMI's headline figure. China's economic momentum is marked by swings, he added: a strong first quarter from early stimulus, a slower midyear, followed by a fourth quarter rebound as the government ramps up support measures to meet growth targets. UNCERTAINTY OVER U.S. TRADE DEAL Policymakers rolled out a series of consumer loan subsidies in mid-August, a decision vindicated by separate factory output and retail sales data for the month, which saw their weakest growth in 12 months. Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said last week a range of monetary policy tools to support the economy remained available, but refrained from following the U.S. Federal Reserve with a rate cut, as some economists speculated the central bank might. Despite signs the $19 trillion economy is losing momentum, authorities appear in no hurry to roll out major stimulus measures, given resilient exports and a stock market rally, market watchers say. Adding to signs of a slowdown, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, fell to 50.0 from 50.3 in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), its worst reading since November. The NBS composite PMI of manufacturing and non-manufacturing came in at 50.6 in September, compared with 50.5 in August. The new export orders sub-index contracted for the seventeenth straight month, while employment and factory gate prices also remained firmly in the doldrums. The data point to producers slashing prices to find buyers overseas, despite the fact that China's exports to regional rival India hit an all-time high in August, according to customs data, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track for annual records. But no other country comes close to the consumption power of the U.S., where Chinese producers sell more than $400 billion worth of goods annually, accounting for around 14% of total exports. Chinese leader Xi Jinping phoned Trump on September 19 for the first time in three months, and while the call appeared to ease tensions, it remains unclear whether it yielded the expected agreement on popular short-video app TikTok, which analysts see as key to a broader trade deal. Disagreements on technical details appeared to be weighing on negotiations, as Chinese and U.S. trade officials met again last Thursday to revisit issues discussed in talks before this month's Madrid summit, where a framework TikTok deal was reached. (Reporting by Joe Cash; Editing by Sam Holmes and Shri Navaratnam)

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By Blake Brittain and Jan Wolfe WASHINGTON (Reuters) -A federal judge in Washington ordered the Trump administration on Monday to pause the layoffs of hundreds of employees from the agency that owns the U.S. news service Voice of America, adding that government officials had shown "concerning disrespect" for the court's directives. U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth halted the plan while he determines whether the U.S. Agency for Global Media complied with an injunction he issued in April that it "fulfills its statutory mandate that VOA serve as a consistently reliable and authoritative source of news." The layoffs would affect 532 jobs for full-time staff, representing most of the agency's remaining employees. VOA broadcasts were abruptly shut down in March under an executive order from U.S. President Donald Trump. Lamberth said in his written order that he "no longer harbors any doubt" that the defendants, which include the agency and its acting CEO Kari Lake, "lack a plan to comply with the preliminary injunction". Instead, they have "been running out the clock on the fiscal year while remaining in violation of even the most meager reading of USAGM and Voice of America’s statutory obligations," he said. Representatives for the White House and the agency, as well as attorneys for the employees who filed the litigation did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the decision. Trump, who clashed with VOA during his first term, picked Lake, a former news anchor, to be its director for his second. Lake, a staunch ally of the president, has often accused mainstream media of harboring anti-Trump bias. Founded in 1942 to counter Nazi propaganda, VOA reached 360 million people a week in 2024, according to a USAGM report to Congress.  Lamberth, who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan, has been hearing a batch of lawsuits challenging the legality of Trump's March executive order. The cases include one filed by Michael Abramowitz, VOA's director.      (Reporting by Blake Brittain and Jan Wolfe in Washington; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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By David Lawder and David Shepardson WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was slapping 10% tariffs on imported timber and lumber and 25% duties on imported kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, with the rate on the latter categories to jump next year. Trump signed a presidential proclamation laying out his argument that timber, lumber and furniture imports are eroding U.S. national security to justify the new duties under Section 232 of the Trade Act of 1974. The proclamation said the tariff rates would start on October 14, but added that duties will increase on January 1 to 30% for upholstered wooden products and to 50% for kitchen cabinets and vanities imported from countries that fail to reach an agreement with the United States. The action is the first in three sectors that Trump said last week would get steep new duties as early as October 1, including patented pharmaceutical imports, and heavy truck imports. But Monday's proclamation sets the start of the lumber and furniture duties two weeks later, at 12:01 a.m. EDT (0401 GMT) on October 14. Trump's proclamation said wood product imports are weakening the U.S. economy, resulting in the persistent threats of closures of wood mills and disruptions of wood product supply chains and diminishing utilization of the U.S. domestic wood industry. "Because of the state of the United States wood industry, the United States may be unable to meet demands for wood products that are crucial to the national defense and critical infrastructure," the statement said. The order added that wood products are used for "building infrastructure for operational testing, housing and storage for personnel and materiel, transporting munitions, as an ingredient in munitions, and as a component in missile-defense systems and thermal-protection systems for nuclear-reentry vehicles." (Reporting by David Shepardson, David Lawder and Ismail Shakil; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)

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By Casey Hall and Sophie Yu SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China's Pop Mart is borrowing from Disney's playbook to turn toothy monster Labubu's blockbuster sales into long-term success, Executive Director and co-COO Si De told Reuters in a rare interview. Pop Mart has already done what many thought impossible – making Labubu the first Chinese product to win a global audience for its emotional and creative appeal rather than because it represents value-for-money. Now it aims to capitalise on the art toy's success. "We have learned from Disney for a long time. In fact, Disney's great value lies in its ability to operate IP (intellectual property) over the long-term, even up to 100 years," Si said, pointing to the example of Mickey Mouse, created as a cartoon nearly a century ago. Even as analysts question Pop Mart's reliance on Labubu and the company's fate as the toy's popularity inevitably cools, the firm itself still sees plenty of potential to develop content, entertainment, theme parks and more merchandise around the character – as Disney does with its most popular IP. Si did not give a timeline or estimate on investment during the first interview a top executive from the firm has done with foreign media since 2022. He said Pop Mart's focus in the near-term was not to find the "next big hit" but to invest in "better products, finding better collaborations, developing content, theme parks, store displays" for Labubu, and the eventual goal was to have five to 10 IPs with similar long-term potential to Labubu. THE LABUBU PARADOX Labubu's global success has sent the Hong Kong-listed company's shares up almost 200% so far this year, and Pop Mart is now worth more than Hasbro, Mattel and Sanrio combined. "Pop Mart is selling a lifestyle that consumers are buying because they want to be part of it," said Louis Houdart, China managing partner at Mad, a consulting firm, adding that its margins rivalled some luxury brands.  It has also fuelled investment in China's red-hot art toy industry, intensifying the competitive pressure on Pop Mart, the market leader. Estimates in July from Industry World, a Chinese market intelligence platform, said the Chinese art toy market was expected to reach more than 120 billion yuan ($16.85 billion) in revenue this year, accounting for more than 35% of the global market and maintaining double-digit growth in China. Though Pop Mart does not break out Labubu sales, the series it belongs to, The Monsters, accounted for almost 35% of total first-half revenue this year, raising questions about the company's dependence on the character. Labubu's popularity has boosted sales of stablemates such as Molly, Skullpanda and Crybaby (which each had more than 1 billion yuan in sales in the first half), but also fuelled curiosity beyond Pop Mart's offerings. "Because of the success of Pop Mart, there are more people with money wanting to invest in this industry. You see right now there's a lot of new companies and there's definitely more and more artists trying to do IP as a way of making money," said Runyu, the 24-year-old winner of China's first art toy design competition reality TV show.  Other major art toy retailers in China include 52 Toys and Miniso, which traditionally relied on licensing IP from the likes of Disney and Sanrio but is now investing more in original IP development and signing partnerships with art toy designers. "Pop Mart has blazed a trail" for the rest of China's art toy industry, said Zhou Junyu, head of IP at Siguworks, one of the art toy companies working with Miniso. As Pop Mart has studied Disney, other firms in China have studied Pop Mart. Whether the Disney model will help it see off the growing competition remains unclear. "We all know Disney's playbook, which overall is relatively easy to replicate, but its success is not," said Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang. "I mean, compared to the legacy IP operators like Disney and Sanrio, Pop Mart still has a long way to go and during the process, there is also execution risk." FOUNDATION FOR SUCCESS Pop Mart's success with Labubu did not happen overnight, and was largely due to strategic decisions taken by founder and CEO Wang Ning over the past decade, three current and former Pop Mart employees said. They declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media. In 2010, Wang, only 23 but with a string of entrepreneurial ventures behind him, opened a hip lifestyle store in Beijing. Within a few years he saw collectible figurines accounting for a significant portion of revenue, and decided to focus on art toys. Wang also realised Pop Mart needed to own the IP it sold, according to two former employees, leading him to Kenny Wong – the designer of Molly, with her distinctive pouty face. Hong Kong-based Wong was dismissive when Wang first approached him in 2016, but he eventually agreed to a trial collaboration.  "During my most difficult years, inventory was my biggest concern, then Wang Ning showed up. He first solved my inventory problem, selling out all of it in a short period of time," Wong told Reuters. Wong handed regional licensing for Molly over to Pop Mart and the success continued. Labubu made its Pop Mart debut in 2019. "Each time, they achieved remarkable results and progress, so much so that I finally gave them everything I had," Wong said. Pop Mart's "blind box" retail strategy – where consumers buy packages for around $10 to $20 without knowing exactly which toy is inside – and its focus on characters with appeal to young women, a high-spending consumer group that had previously been largely overlooked by the art toy industry, were the twin foundations of its success, the Pop Mart insiders told Reuters. "I wouldn't say they have the model 100% right, that every IP is going to be a hit, but I think with the experience they have, they will get it right more than most," one said. ($1 = 7.1201 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Casey Hall in Shanghai and Sophie Yu in Beijing; Editing by Kate Mayberry)

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