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By Anjana Anil (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Tuesday as another anticipated production increase by OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey reinforced the outlook for a looming supply surplus. Brent crude futures for November delivery, expiring on Tuesday, fell 47 cents, or 0.69%, to $67.50 a barrel by 0012 GMT. The more active contract for December was down 43 cents, or 0.64%, at $66.66 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading at $63.05 a barrel, down 40 cents, or 0.63%. The drops extend Monday's drop when both Brent and WTI settled more than 3% lower after logging their sharpest daily declines since August 1, 2025. Oil's falls came as Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports over the weekend and amid reports that OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production for November at its meeting this weekend, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note to clients. In a meeting scheduled for Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, three sources familiar with the talks said. "Although (OPEC+ is) under their quota anyway, the market still does not seem to like the fact that more oil is coming in," Marex analyst Ed Meir said. Meanwhile, crude oil flowed on Saturday through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in 2-1/2 years, after an interim deal broke a deadlock, Iraq's oil ministry said. The market has remained cautious in recent weeks, balancing supply risks, mainly arising from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries, with concerns of oversupply and weak demand. Elsewhere, U.S. President Donald Trump won Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's support for a U.S.-backed Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas's stance remained uncertain. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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By Casey Hall and Sophie Yu SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China's Pop Mart is borrowing from Disney's playbook to turn toothy monster Labubu's blockbuster sales into long-term success, Executive Director and co-COO Si De told Reuters in a rare interview. Pop Mart has already done what many thought impossible – making Labubu the first Chinese product to win a global audience for its emotional and creative appeal rather than because it represents value-for-money. Now it aims to capitalise on the art toy's success. "We have learned from Disney for a long time. In fact, Disney's great value lies in its ability to operate IP (intellectual property) over the long-term, even up to 100 years," Si said, pointing to the example of Mickey Mouse, created as a cartoon nearly a century ago. Even as analysts question Pop Mart's reliance on Labubu and the company's fate as the toy's popularity inevitably cools, the firm itself still sees plenty of potential to develop content, entertainment, theme parks and more merchandise around the character – as Disney does with its most popular IP. Si did not give a timeline or estimate on investment during the first interview a top executive from the firm has done with foreign media since 2022. He said Pop Mart's focus in the near-term was not to find the "next big hit" but to invest in "better products, finding better collaborations, developing content, theme parks, store displays" for Labubu, and the eventual goal was to have five to 10 IPs with similar long-term potential to Labubu. THE LABUBU PARADOX Labubu's global success has sent the Hong Kong-listed company's shares up almost 200% so far this year, and Pop Mart is now worth more than Hasbro, Mattel and Sanrio combined. "Pop Mart is selling a lifestyle that consumers are buying because they want to be part of it," said Louis Houdart, China managing partner at Mad, a consulting firm, adding that its margins rivalled some luxury brands.  It has also fuelled investment in China's red-hot art toy industry, intensifying the competitive pressure on Pop Mart, the market leader. Estimates in July from Industry World, a Chinese market intelligence platform, said the Chinese art toy market was expected to reach more than 120 billion yuan ($16.85 billion) in revenue this year, accounting for more than 35% of the global market and maintaining double-digit growth in China. Though Pop Mart does not break out Labubu sales, the series it belongs to, The Monsters, accounted for almost 35% of total first-half revenue this year, raising questions about the company's dependence on the character. Labubu's popularity has boosted sales of stablemates such as Molly, Skullpanda and Crybaby (which each had more than 1 billion yuan in sales in the first half), but also fuelled curiosity beyond Pop Mart's offerings. "Because of the success of Pop Mart, there are more people with money wanting to invest in this industry. You see right now there's a lot of new companies and there's definitely more and more artists trying to do IP as a way of making money," said Runyu, the 24-year-old winner of China's first art toy design competition reality TV show.  Other major art toy retailers in China include 52 Toys and Miniso, which traditionally relied on licensing IP from the likes of Disney and Sanrio but is now investing more in original IP development and signing partnerships with art toy designers. "Pop Mart has blazed a trail" for the rest of China's art toy industry, said Zhou Junyu, head of IP at Siguworks, one of the art toy companies working with Miniso. As Pop Mart has studied Disney, other firms in China have studied Pop Mart. Whether the Disney model will help it see off the growing competition remains unclear. "We all know Disney's playbook, which overall is relatively easy to replicate, but its success is not," said Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang. "I mean, compared to the legacy IP operators like Disney and Sanrio, Pop Mart still has a long way to go and during the process, there is also execution risk." FOUNDATION FOR SUCCESS Pop Mart's success with Labubu did not happen overnight, and was largely due to strategic decisions taken by founder and CEO Wang Ning over the past decade, three current and former Pop Mart employees said. They declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media. In 2010, Wang, only 23 but with a string of entrepreneurial ventures behind him, opened a hip lifestyle store in Beijing. Within a few years he saw collectible figurines accounting for a significant portion of revenue, and decided to focus on art toys. Wang also realised Pop Mart needed to own the IP it sold, according to two former employees, leading him to Kenny Wong – the designer of Molly, with her distinctive pouty face. Hong Kong-based Wong was dismissive when Wang first approached him in 2016, but he eventually agreed to a trial collaboration.  "During my most difficult years, inventory was my biggest concern, then Wang Ning showed up. He first solved my inventory problem, selling out all of it in a short period of time," Wong told Reuters. Wong handed regional licensing for Molly over to Pop Mart and the success continued. Labubu made its Pop Mart debut in 2019. "Each time, they achieved remarkable results and progress, so much so that I finally gave them everything I had," Wong said. Pop Mart's "blind box" retail strategy – where consumers buy packages for around $10 to $20 without knowing exactly which toy is inside – and its focus on characters with appeal to young women, a high-spending consumer group that had previously been largely overlooked by the art toy industry, were the twin foundations of its success, the Pop Mart insiders told Reuters. "I wouldn't say they have the model 100% right, that every IP is going to be a hit, but I think with the experience they have, they will get it right more than most," one said. ($1 = 7.1201 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Casey Hall in Shanghai and Sophie Yu in Beijing; Editing by Kate Mayberry)

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By Mike Colias DETROIT (Reuters) -Ford and General Motors are racing to sign up car dealers for programs that would effectively extend the use of a $7,500 U.S. tax credit on leases of electric vehicles beyond the Tuesday expiration of the federal subsidy, according to dealers and documents. Each company in recent days has rolled out programs to their retailers under which the automaker's financing arm would initiate the purchase of EVs in dealers’ inventory by making down payments on them, according to dealers briefed on the previously unreported programs and documents from the companies. Those down payments will qualify the lending arms for the federal $7,500 tax credit on those vehicles, according to the documents and dealers. From there, dealers would offer leases on those cars to retail customers as usual for several more months, with the $7,500 subsidy factored into the lease rate. The programs are aimed at softening the impact of the disappearance of the tax credit, which has been in place for more than 15 years to encourage EV adoption.  "We worked with our GM dealers on an extended offer for customers to benefit from the tax credit for leases” of EVs, GM said in a statement to Reuters on Monday. A Ford spokesperson did not immediately comment. Dealers, auto executives and analysts have predicted that EV sales and leasing would plummet following Tuesday's expiration of the tax credit, after a rush on EVs in recent months from buyers seeking to beat the deadline. U.S. President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill, signed in July, set the September 30 end date for the subsidy. It was unclear if other automakers were pursuing similar tactics to extend the period through which they can take advantage of the tax credit to sell their EVs.  Ford and GM devised their programs after discussions with officials at the Internal Revenue Service, according to three people familiar with the discussions. An IRS spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In August, the IRS said vehicles must be purchased by September 30 to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit.  “You can demonstrate acquisition by entering into a binding written contract and making a payment on the vehicle on or before Sept. 30,” the agency said. (Reporting by Mike Colias; Editing by Jamie Freed)

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By Jody Godoy (Reuters) -California Governor Gavin Newsom signed into state law on Monday a requirement that ChatGPT developer OpenAI and other big players disclose how they plan to mitigate potential catastrophic risks from their cutting-edge AI models. California is the home to top AI companies including OpenAI, Alphabet's Google, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Anthropic, and with this law seeks to lead on regulation of an industry critical to its economy, Newsom said. "California has proven that we can establish regulations to protect our communities while also ensuring that the growing AI industry continues to thrive," Newsom said in a press release. Newsom's office said the law, known as SB 53, fills a gap left by the U.S. Congress, which so far has not passed broad AI legislation, and provides a model for the U.S. to follow. If federal standards are put in place, Newsom said, the state legislature should "ensure alignment with those standards – all while maintaining the high bar established by SB 53." Last year, Newsom vetoed California's first attempt at AI legislation, which had faced fierce industry pushback. The bill would have required companies that spent more than $100 million on their AI models to hire third-party auditors annually to review risk assessments and allowed the state to levy penalties in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The new law requires companies with more than $500 million in revenue to assess the risk that their cutting-edge technology could break free of human control or aid the development of bioweapons, and disclose those assessments to the public. It allows for fines of up to $1 million per violation. Jack Clark, co-founder of AI company Anthropic, called the law "a strong framework that balances public safety with continued innovation." The industry still hopes for a federal framework that would replace the California law, as well as others like it enacted recently in Colorado and New York. Last year, a bid by some Republicans in the U.S. Congress to block states from regulating AI was voted down in the Senate 99-1. "The biggest danger of SB 53 is that it sets a precedent for states, rather than the federal government, to take the lead in governing the national AI market – creating a patchwork of 50 compliance regimes that startups don't have the resources to navigate," said Collin McCune, head of government affairs at Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. U.S. Representative Jay Obernolte, a California Republican, is working on AI legislation that could preempt some state laws, his office said, although it declined to comment further on pending legislation. Some Democrats are also discussing how to enact a federal standard. "It's not whether we're gonna regulate AI, it's do you want 17 states doing it, or do you want Congress to do it?" U.S. Representative Ted Lieu, a Democrat from Los Angeles, said at a recent hearing on AI legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives. (Reporting by Jody Godoy in New York; Editing by Chris Sanders and Edmund Klamann)

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By Lisa Baertlein LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -U.S. delivery companies are on track to handle 2.3 billion packages this holiday season, 5% more than last year, as an extra shopping day helps offset the drag from President Donald Trump's tariff policies, according to a forecast released on Monday. Investors are keen for information on the holiday delivery season that stretches from Thanksgiving to Christmas because companies like FedEx and UPS can deliver twice the normal number of packages on some days. The expected increase in holiday deliveries will not be spread equally across companies, logistics technology provider ShipMatrix said on Monday. That could mean some delivery providers get more customer pushback on so-called "peak surcharges" that help shelter carrier profits from higher holiday season costs. In the first half of 2025, total U.S. domestic parcel volumes increased 6.1% at Amazon.com's logistics arm and 5% at FedEx. Volume at UPS, which is cutting the number of packages it delivers for Amazon, decreased 5.4%, while the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) fell 6.7%, ShipMatrix said. The volume decline at UPS and USPS combined was more than what Amazon and FedEx gained, and that additional volume of 102 million packages was likely handled by the private delivery networks of large retailers like Walmart or by other carriers, the report said. If current trends stretch into the holiday season, "we expect FedEx and Amazon to experience a 5 to 8 percent increase with UPS and USPS being flat," ShipMatrix added. Higher U.S. prices for goods tied to Trump's tariffs as well as the end of import duty exemptions for low-value goods sold via China-linked retailers like Temu and Shein have been sapping already-soft delivery demand. FedEx and UPS have seen volumes decline since Trump ended the import duty exemption for low-value, direct-to-consumer goods from China and Hong Kong on May 2 and for the rest of the world on August 29. Last year, roughly 1.4 billion packages came into the United States under the "de minimis" exemption for goods valued at less than $800. Trump's ever-changing tariff policy also has put a chill on U.S. business spending and made consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of domestic economic activity, wary about rising prices. (Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Jamie Freed)

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TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's factory output fell 1.2% in August from the previous month, worse than a median market forecast for a 0.8% fall, government data showed on Tuesday. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect seasonally adjusted output to grow 4.1% in September and rise 1.2% in October. (Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's factory output fell 1.2% in August from the previous month, worse than a median market forecast for a 0.8% fall, government data showed on Tuesday. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect seasonally adjusted output to grow 4.1% in September and rise 1.2% in October. (Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's factory output fell 1.2% in August from the previous month, worse than a median market forecast for a 0.8% fall, government data showed on Tuesday. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect seasonally adjusted output to grow 4.1% in September and rise 1.2% in October. (Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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By Jody Godoy (Reuters) -California Governor Gavin Newsom signed into state law on Monday a requirement that ChatGPT developer OpenAI and other big players disclose how they plan to mitigate potential catastrophic risks from their cutting-edge AI models. California is the home to top AI companies including OpenAI, Alphabet's Google, Meta Platforms, Nvidia and Anthropic, and with this law seeks to lead on regulation of an industry critical to its economy, Newsom said. "California has proven that we can establish regulations to protect our communities while also ensuring that the growing AI industry continues to thrive," Newsom said in a press release. Newsom's office said the law, known as SB 53, fills a gap left by the U.S. Congress, which so far has not passed broad AI legislation, and provides a model for the U.S. to follow. If federal standards are put in place, Newsom said, the state legislature should "ensure alignment with those standards – all while maintaining the high bar established by SB 53." Last year, Newsom vetoed California's first attempt at AI legislation, which had faced fierce industry pushback. The bill would have required companies that spent more than $100 million on their AI models to hire third-party auditors annually to review risk assessments and allowed the state to levy penalties in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The new law requires companies with more than $500 million in revenue to assess the risk that their cutting-edge technology could break free of human control or aid the development of bioweapons, and disclose those assessments to the public. It allows for fines of up to $1 million per violation. Jack Clark, co-founder of AI company Anthropic, called the law "a strong framework that balances public safety with continued innovation." The industry still hopes for a federal framework that would replace the California law, as well as others like it enacted recently in Colorado and New York. Last year, a bid by some Republicans in the U.S. Congress to block states from regulating AI was voted down in the Senate 99-1. "The biggest danger of SB 53 is that it sets a precedent for states, rather than the federal government, to take the lead in governing the national AI market – creating a patchwork of 50 compliance regimes that startups don't have the resources to navigate," said Collin McCune, head of government affairs at Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. U.S. Representative Jay Obernolte, a California Republican, is working on AI legislation that could preempt some state laws, his office said, although it declined to comment further on pending legislation. Some Democrats are also discussing how to enact a federal standard. "It's not whether we're gonna regulate AI, it's do you want 17 states doing it, or do you want Congress to do it?" U.S. Representative Ted Lieu, a Democrat from Los Angeles, said at a recent hearing on AI legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives. (Reporting by Jody Godoy in New York; Editing by Chris Sanders and Edmund Klamann)

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By David Shepardson WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. airlines warned on Monday that a partial federal government shutdown could strain American aviation and slow flights, as air traffic controllers and security officers would be forced to work without pay and other functions would be halted. Airline trade group Airlines for America, which represents United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and others, warned that if funding lapses, "the system may need to slow down, reducing efficiency" and impacting travelers. The warning about air travel highlights the latest potential collateral damage from the political dispute in Washington over government funding. "When federal employees who manage air traffic, inspect aircraft and secure our nation’s aviation system are furloughed or working without pay, the entire industry and millions of Americans feel the strain," the group said. Air traffic controllers and about 50,000 Transportation Security Administration employees who staff airport checkpoints are among the government workers who would be required to keep working but would not be paid. In 2019, during a 35-day shutdown, the number of absences by controllers and TSA officers rose as workers missed paychecks, extending checkpoint wait times at some airports. The Federal Aviation Administration was forced to slow air traffic in New York, which put pressure on lawmakers to quickly end the standoff. The shutdown is expected to begin on Wednesday unless there is an agreement between the Democrats and Republicans on a government funding bill. Congressional Democratic leaders left a meeting with President Donald Trump on Monday without reaching a deal. In a separate letter, airline groups, aviation unions, manufacturers, airports and other aviation groups warned shutdowns force the FAA to "suspend air traffic controller and technician hiring and training, delay the implementation of safety initiatives, postpone maintenance and repair work to critical air traffic equipment, suspend air carrier pilot check rides, delay airworthy inspections for aircraft, defer the analysis of voluntary safety reporting, and suspend work on modernization programs." An extensive shutdown could delay the FAA's certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 7 and slow the $12.5 billion overhaulof air traffic control. The FAA said that under its shutdown plan released in March it would not be able to conduct air traffic controller hiring or field training of air traffic controllers. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Friday he was concerned a shutdown could jeopardize air traffic training and the modernization effort. Hundreds of air traffic control trainees at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City could also be furloughed "causing significant delays in the training pipeline and worsen the ongoing air traffic controller staffing crisis," the National Air Traffic Controllers Association said, adding "a government shutdown of any length could cause significant setbacks." The FAA is about 3,800 controllers short of targeted staffing levels. A persistent shortage of controllers has delayed flights and many are working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks. (Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Leslie Adler and Lincoln Feast.)

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