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WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering terminating some trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil even though traders and analysts said such shipments have already spent the past year plummeting. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution," Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday. "As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don't need to purchase it from China." The U.S. was China's top market for used cooking oil (UCO), importing a record 1.27 million metric tons worth $1.1 billion in 2024. But after China cut tax rebates late last year and the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods this year, imports plunged 65% in January-August to 290,690 tons, or $286.7 million. As such, Trump's comments have had "minimal" impact on the market, two UCO traders in China said on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to media. "The U.S. pretty much stopped buying from China anyway, so the impact is as empty as his threats," said one of the traders, who deals with the U.S. market. "Domestic producers are now mainly taking orders for Europe and are no longer considering the U.S. market," said the other. UCO trade is small compared with that of soybeans. China imported 22.13 million tons of U.S. soybeans last year, valued at $12 billion. "Used cooking oil is a niche trade, but it shows how the Trump Administration is standing up for American farmers, just as China shifts its agricultural purchases towards other suppliers," said senior analyst Chim Lee at the Economist Intelligence Unit. China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans. In recent months it has slashed purchases of U.S. soybeans in favor of Brazilian and Argentine produce. Trump has called the shift a negotiation tactic. He said this month he hoped to discuss soybeans with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping while also saying the U.S. may halt a large share of imports from China. The U.S. president has targeted China with a cascade of tariff orders on billions of dollars worth of imported goods that he said is aimed at narrowing a trade deficit, bringing back lost manufacturing and crippling the trade in fentanyl. The U.S. and China have had strained ties for years, especially with Trump in office. They have been at odds over issues including technology, human rights, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical matters involving Hong Kong, Taiwan and Ukraine. (Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Washington, Ella Cao and Joe Cash in Beijing and Aizhu Chen in Singapore; Editing by Ismail Shakil and Christopher Cushing)

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(Reuters) -Stellantis is recalling 298,439 Dodge Dart vehicles in the U.S. due to a shifter cable defect that could disable the park function and allow the vehicle to rollaway, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Wednesday. (Reporting by Ananya Palyekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

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-Nissan is recalling 173,301 vehicles in the United States due to a potential issue with blown fuel pump fuses that can cause engine stalling, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Wednesday. (Reporting by Gnaneshwar Rajan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)

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By Leika Kihara and Howard Schneider TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. government shutdown that has turned off the official flow of data could begin clouding the view for policymakers in Japan and other countries where insight into the fortunes of the world's biggest economy informs the outlook for their own currencies, trade performance and inflation.  What happens in America, in other words, doesn't stay in America, and global officials say being left data-blind by the shutdown over time could complicate their own policymaking and boost the risk of a mistake at a moment when countries are already adjusting to the Trump administration's efforts to remake global trade. "It's a serious problem. We hope this gets fixed soon," Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing on October 3, as he discussed the hurdles the BOJ faces in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes. One Japanese policymaker went further.  "It's a joke. (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell keeps on saying the Fed's policy is data-dependent but there's no data to depend upon," said the official, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak publicly.  Bank of England policy member Catherine Mann said the questions surrounding U.S. data, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and other issues don’t figure as directly into BOE policy debate as the shifts in trade policy, for example, which directly affect things like prices and the export outlook. But she noted how over time the British pound lost its central status in the world, a process that took decades and was driven by multiple forces she referred to as “termites” that weakened the pound’s role over time. Policy changes that could degrade the dollar's standing or erode the Fed's independence, “are things that we have in our mind but they’re not front and center,” Mann said. But “they are the termites, as opposed to something that is imminent.” Finance and economic leaders from around the world are gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and – in a world beset by an ongoing European land war, tensions and violence in the Middle East, and long-term issues like climate change – much of the meeting's oxygen is likely to be consumed by discussion of U.S. President Donald Trump's plans for the world, his performance in office so far, and, now, the sudden stop of official information about a $30 trillion economy that accounts for roughly one-fourth of world output.  The shutdown could end at any time and the flow of data resume. But the episode is nonetheless symptomatic of a deeper set of issues around U.S. governance and data reliability, including Trump's efforts to gain new influence over the Federal Reserve and his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he was angry over a jobs report that the IMF cited among the "downside risks" facing the world right now. "Intensification of political pressure on policy institutions…could erode hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their mandates," the World Economic Outlook published Tuesday by the IMF stated. "Pressures on technocratic institutions mandated with data collection and dissemination could also erode the public’s and markets’ trust in statistics from official sources, significantly complicating the tasks of central banks and policymakers in making policy decisions…It also raises the likelihood of policy mistakes if political interference leads to compromise in data quality, reliability, and timeliness." 'THE RISK OF ERROR RISES' It is not as if all data has disappeared. The U.S. Federal Reserve, self-funded and not affected by the shutdown, continues to survey its extensive network of contacts about the economy, and private data services provide alternatives that policymakers have learned to knit into serviceable, if imperfect, substitutes at least for short-term analysis. “The month-to-month data flow in the U.S. gets talked about but never is a decisive factor," for other central banks, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker.  But Posen said that the shutdown itself and the tumult around BLS "contributes to the general skepticism about the governance of the U.S. and the reliability of the U.S….And that is important. It eventually feeds into reserve management and currency decisions and feeds into volatility outlooks for the U.S. that were not there before." If the spring IMF and World Bank meetings were all about the uncertainty posed by Trump's plans for higher tariffs and rising protectionism, attention is now fixed on how companies, countries and consumers are coping with the new landscape. Short answer: Not as bad as expected when Trump first took office, at least through September, but still adjusting, according to the IMF's WEO update that found "a significant, though not massive, impact of shifting policies on the economic outlook." After trimming its global growth outlook by a half percentage point in April to 2.8%,  the IMF in its latest projection published on Tuesday clawed most of that back, with global growth now seen at 3.2% for the year. But now, with a major hole in the flow of data covering around a quarter of global economic output, the view will get foggier the longer the shutdown lasts. "Certainly, there is still a great deal of information out there, and policymakers are dedicating substantial effort to gather micro data and anecdotal evidence," about the U.S. said Robert Kahn, director of global macro at Eurasia Group. "But how best to put it together, and importantly how markets will react to such news, are critical unknowns. As time goes on, the risk of error rises as uncertainties compound.” (Reporting by Leika Kihara in Tokyo and Howard Schneider in Washington; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci)

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LONDON (Reuters) -LMVH shares traded nearly 8% higher on the Tradegate platform on Wednesday, a day after the luxury group reported better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, driven by improved demand in China. The world's largest luxury group's shares were trading at 575.2 euros on Tradegate, compared to an official close on Tuesday of 532.8. If the move on the retail-focused platform holds when full trading opens, that would be equivalent to little over 21 billion euros ($24.4 billion) of gains, bringing its total market value to more than 287 billion euros. The rise reported by LVMH on Tuesday represents the first quarter of growth this year for the company, which is seen as a sector bellwether with operations spanning fashion, alcohol and retail. Analysts see the results beat as a good sign for continued recovery, with Bernstein highlighting that sales exceeded expectations across all divisions. JPMorgan analysts anticipate shares in LVMH's competitors will also react positively and believe the overall environment is positive enough to expect a generally better luxury reporting season. Shares in Swiss luxury group Richemont were seen up 4.8% in pre-market indications. ($1 = 0.8602 euros) (Reporting by Alun John and Mateusz Rabiea; Editing by Amanda Cooper)

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SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) -China's Communist Party meets this month to map a five-year vision that prioritises high-tech manufacturing in its quest to upgrade its sprawling industries and project global power as its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies, analysts say. Known as a plenum, the meeting is also likely to pledge strong measures to lift household consumption and curb deep, historical supply-demand imbalances that threaten long-term growth in the world's second-largest economy. The two goals are decades old and pull in opposite directions, a policy challenge that has become acute now with U.S.-China tensions worsening, making it hard for Beijing to pivot to demand-side policies, analysts say. Industrial prowess demands maintaining the status quo of channelling state resources to producers, while boosting consumption requires funds be redirected to households, leaving less for business and government investment. FACTORIES VS CONSUMERS China's growth over the past decade was driven by the pursuit of the first goal at the expense of the second. But this action is now fanning deflationary pressures and creating unsustainable debts. The intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, underlined by U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed threats of triple-digit tariffs last week, has complicated matters for policymakers in Beijing, analysts say. It's a choice to prioritise great power competition over the compelling need to address domestic growth imbalances. China's next five-year plan, the closely watched policy document that the October 20-23 plenum will produce for parliamentary approval in March, will "definitely emphasise, and re-emphasise, support for high-tech research and industrial development," said Chen Bo, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute. "In terms of a country's hard power, manufacturing is still a top priority," Chen said. "When conflict arises, what ultimately matters is manufacturing, not services." A speech by President Xi Jinping published by Communist Party magazine Qiushi in July said the world was going through changes not seen in a century, which made "technological revolution and major-country competition increasingly intertwined." Xi called on the nation to secure the "strategic high ground" in the global tech race. China now leads in industries such as electric vehicles, solar or wind and is leveraging its dominance of rare earths production with export controls before potential trade talks between Trump and Xi later in October. Apart from a few high-end sectors, such as aircraft or advanced semiconductors, its supply chains are largely domestic. With the West aiming to re-industrialise and re-arm after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and amid growing tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the stakes are too high for Beijing to even contemplate slowing down on that front. "If you do not develop high-end industries, you will be subject to others in the future," said Guo Tianyong, professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, warning, however, that China needed a better policy balance. CRACKS ARE EMERGING Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect post-plenum statements to deliver a "tech- and supply-driven framework, with incremental focus on social welfare." Consequently, "decisive reflation remains elusive in 2026," they added. Beneath the envy-worthy headline growth, the past five-year cycle has been anything but smooth sailing for the economy – factory gate deflation is becoming entrenched, adding to a property crisis, a municipal debt scare, endemic industrial overcapacity, and record youth unemployment. A generation who studied for highly skilled and well-paid service sector jobs, which a consumption-driven growth model had better chances of creating, faces limited opportunities."If you only rely on external demand and domestic demand is not working, then you will have unemployment problems and also deflation," said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. "If it continues like this for one or two years, it's still okay. But in the long run, it will definitely be a problem." Hu expects China to get serious about stimulating consumption if and when external demand shrinks enough to threaten growth targets. EMPTY PROMISES ON CONSUMPTION? The 2026-2030 blueprint will be China's 15th five-year plan since it adopted Soviet-style quinquennial policy formulation cycles in the 1950s. The 14th promised to "fully leverage the fundamental role of consumption in stimulating economic development." The 13th pledged that "the contribution of consumption to economic growth will continue to grow." Yet Chinese households – their wealth eroded by the property crisis and confidence shattered by strict pandemic curbs – still prefer saving over spending, prompting calls to reform labour markets, taxes, state firms, land rights and welfare. Analysts say China can muddle along with its contradictory goals by tilting industrial support toward tech research and away from capacity expansion, while gradually building on its incipient efforts to strengthen the welfare system. Over the past year, Beijing has rolled out consumer goods subsidies, childcare benefits, and small pension increases. A recent top court ruling that makes social insurance contributions mandatory for both employers and workers lays the groundwork for stronger welfare over the longer term. One policy adviser, asking for anonymity to discuss sensitive topics, said benefits will likely rise further in the next five years, with lower pensions increasing faster than higher ones. But improvements "won't be particularly substantial," even though "everyone recognises the issue of insufficient demand," the adviser said, adding that the small social security budget and tight local government finances limit policy options. After the property sector's downturn, the adviser added, "we are unable to find new demand drivers." Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, expects the five-year plan to "focus more on people's livelihood, including social security, healthcare systems, and possibly more support and protection for low-income groups." But, she says, such language should "absolutely not" be read as a paradigm shift. "In a now very typical Marxist country," Wang said, "it's all about production." (Reporting by Claire Fu in Singapore; Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao in Beijing; Writing by Marius ZahariaEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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LONDON (Reuters) -LMVH shares traded nearly 8% higher on the Tradegate platform on Wednesday, a day after the company reported that sales increased by 1% in the third quarter, its first quarter of growth this year. The world's largest luxury group's shares were trading at 575.2 euros on Tradegate, compared to an official close on Tuesday of 532.8. (Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda Cooper)

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By Nathan Vifflin and Toby Sterling (Reuters) -ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, on Wednesday repeated it expects to benefit from booming investments in AI, but warned that it expected a significant fall in demand from China next year. Analysts said the lukewarm guidance, which said sales will be flat or better in 2026, may be upgraded in January. "It could have been a stronger message," Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam said.  Net bookings, the most closely watched figure in the industry, were 5.40 billion euros ($6.27 billion) in the third quarter of 2025, versus analysts' consensus estimate of 5.36 billion euros, according to researcher Visible Alpha. The results came after a flurry of mega-deals between AI firms and chipmakers in September and October, all of which will mean more demand for chips, which make up around half of the cost of data centres.  CEO Christophe Fouquet said ASML, Europe's largest tech firm by market capitalization, is seeing "continued positive momentum around investments in AI," and that it was extending to more of its customers both in advanced logic chips such as those used in smartphones and AI datacenters, and advanced memory chips also needed for AI. ASML's lithography tools, which are essential for making the circuitry of chips, are sold to TSMC of Taiwan, which manufactures most AI chips for Nvidia and other logic firms such as SMIC of China and Intel of the U.S. It also serves memory chip makers Samsung  SK Hynix, and Micron, among others. Weak Chinese demand came as a surprise after it made up nearly a third of new ASML tool sales through the first nine months of 2025. "We expect China customer demand, and therefore our China total net sales in 2026 to decline significantly," Fouquet said. The company reported third-quarter net income of 2.12 billion euros in line with the 2.11 billion euros analysts expected, according to LSEG IBES data.   ($1 = 0.8607 euros) (Reporting by Toby Sterling in Amsterdam, Nathan Vifflin in Gdansk; Editing by Matt Scuffham and Kim Coghill)

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By Miho Uranaka and Sam Nussey TOKYO (Reuters) -Japanese e-commerce and finance heavyweight Rakuten is weighing an initial public offering in the United States of its credit card business, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Rakuten began considering a potential U.S. listing of one of Japan's largest credit card businesses last month, the sources said. The considerations are in the early stages, with other potential options including a stake sale to a strategic buyer, one of the sources said. One trigger for considering a U.S. IPO of Rakuten Card was rival SoftBank's plans to list app pay operator PayPay in the U.S., the source said. The sources declined to be named as the information is not public. The company's considerations of a U.S. IPO had not been reported previously. Rakuten did not respond to requests for comment. Mizuho Financial Group acquired a 15% stake in Rakuten Card for 165 billion yen ($1.1 billion) last year, valuing the business at more than 1 trillion yen, or $7 billion, with the two launching joint credit cards. For PayPay, institutional investors see a baseline valuation of 2 trillion yen, but expect the valuation could exceed 3 trillion yen in the IPO that could take place as early as December, Reuters reported this week. CARDS CENTRAL TO RAKUTEN'S BUSINESS Rakuten, which is led by founder and CEO Hiroshi Mikitani, shook up Japan's finance sector by simplifying the process for applying for credit cards and making them available to a wider range of consumers. Credit cards are an important part of a web of Rakuten businesses spanning online shopping, banking, travel and other services, with customers accruing loyalty reward points by making payments. Rakuten listed Rakuten Bank in Tokyo two years ago as the group reeled from heavy losses due to launching a mobile network. Rakuten also announced plans to list Rakuten Securities, but Mizuho injected funding by taking stakes in the brokerage and card businesses. Rakuten Card has issued more than 30 million credit cards in Japan. Non-GAAP operating profit at the business grew 20% to 62 billion yen last year but fell 4.5% in the April-June quarter of this year compared to the same period a year earlier due to higher costs. Rakuten Card aims to expand profit to 100 billion yen over the medium term and is looking to expand its business with corporate customers, its CEO Koichi Nakamura said in March. The IPO considerations come as companies around the world are looking to list in the U.S. as they seek higher valuations. The U.S. IPO market has had its busiest quarter since the fourth quarter of 2021, with companies raising $24 billion through first-time share sales in the third quarter, according to Dealogic. ($1 = 152.0900 yen) (Reporting by Miho Uranaka and Sam Nussey; Editing by Jamie Freed)

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(Reuters) -ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, on Wednesday warned that it expected a significant fall in demand from China next year despite its third quarter bookings beating market forecasts. The Dutch group's net bookings, the most closely watched figure in the industry, were 5.40 billion euros ($6.27 billion)in the third quarter of 2025, versus analysts' consensus estimate of 5.36 billion euros according to researcher Visible Alpha. "We do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025… On the other hand, we expect China customer demand, and therefore our China total net sales in 2026 to decline significantly." ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement. ASML said it will communicate its new targets in January. "A slight beat in bookings means there will be no sales decline in 2026, flat to growth", Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam said. "It could have been a stronger message". ($1 = 0.8607 euros) (Reporting by Toby Sterling in Amsterdam, Nathan Vifflin in Gdansk; Editing by Matt Scuffham)

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