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By Joyce Lee SEOUL (Reuters) -China's sanctions against five U.S.-linked affiliates of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean are seen as a warning gesture without immediate impact, and Beijing is unlikely to gain much by expanding them, analysts said on Wednesday. The move, announced on Tuesday when the U.S. and China began charging additional port fees targeting each other's vessels, comes ahead of an expected meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October to resolve the protracted trade war between the world's two largest economies. China's commerce ministry banned transactions and cooperation with Hanwha Ocean's U.S.-linked affiliates, citing security risks stemming from their involvement in the U.S. government's "relevant investigative activities." It did not elaborate on the suspected activities. Hanwha, one of the world's largest shipbuilders, owns Philly Shipyard in the U.S. and has won contracts to repair and overhaul U.S. Navy ships. Its entities also will build a U.S.-flagged LNG carrier. The sanctions do not have any direct impact as the Hanwha affiliates Beijing sanctioned have no business connection with China, said Korea Investment & Securities analyst Kang Kyung-tae.  "Stock prices had fallen due to various concerns that the sanctions will spread to … Korean parent companies and the entire Korean shipbuilding industry, but this is only a possibility," Kang said.  Shares of Hanwha Ocean rebounded 1.8% on Wednesday, while peer HD Hyundai Heavy shares rose 2.2%, recouping some of Tuesday's losses. Hanwha's Philly Shipyard builds ships meant for the U.S. market such as the 10 medium-range tankers Hanwha Shipping ordered in August, which are "geared for the Jones Act and are not using steel plates from China, but from the U.S., Canada and Mexico," said Daeshin Securities analyst Lee Jini.  Hanwha said on Tuesday it is closely monitoring the potential impact of the sanctions, and that it will continue to provide services to its customers, "including through our investments in the U.S. maritime industry and via Hanwha Philly Shipyard." CONCERNS OVER MORE SANCTIONS Investor sentiment remains jittery, as they fear China may target more South Korean shipbuilders cooperating with the U.S. South Korea pledged to inject as much as $150 billion to help the U.S. revive its troubled shipbuilding industry as part of its trade talks with Washington, which has said it needs help from allies Japan and South Korea to revitalise the sector, especially in turning out warships. China, however, is unlikely to expand sanctions due to its reliance on the South Korean shipbuilding industry, the world's second-largest, for steel exports and engine imports, analysts said.  "South Korean shipbuilding industry purchases some Chinese steel plates, about 20-30% of the total … If sanctions are expanded, the impact to Chinese steelmakers will be no less than that on Korean shipbuilders," said Daeshin's Lee.  While the heightened trade war between the U.S. and China may make shipowners delay commercial vessel orders, it could spark more global orders for naval ships, analysts said.  "The U.S.-China conflict will become a catalyst for more naval shipbuilding opportunities in countries around the world," said Shinhan Securities analyst Lee Dong-heon.  (Reporting by Joyce Lee; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Kim Coghill)

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By Nandita Bose WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. support for Argentina hinges on the ruling party of President Javier Milei succeeding in this month's midterm legislative elections, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, saying "we're not going to waste our time" if Milei's party does not win. Trump and Milei were meeting at the White House just days after the U.S. agreed to provide a major financial lifeline to the South American nation. "I'm with this man because his philosophy is correct, and he may win it," Trump said ahead of a White House lunch with Milei and members of Trump's cabinet. "He may not win, but I think he's going to win. And if he wins, we're staying with him. And if he doesn't win, we're gone." Trump's remark rattled Argentine markets that had been buoyed by the support package recently announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The centerpiece of that deal is a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina's central bank, exchanging stable U.S. dollars for volatile pesos. Argentina's main stock market reversed earlier gains and was down about 2% following Trump's comments. Bessent said at Tuesday's meeting that the package, full details of which have not been announced, is predicated on the continuance of economic policies favored by the Trump administration. Well before Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, tore through U.S. government departments, Milei took his own "chainsaw" to Argentina's government, cutting tens of thousands of public sector jobs to address a long-running fiscal deficit. Milei also created a deregulation ministry to target sectors where officials said local prices were artificially high due to a lack of competition.  "Going back to Peronist policies would cause a rethink," Bessent said. Bessent said, however, that the aid package was not dependent on Argentina ending a separate swap line arrangement with China. The economic lifeline for Argentina marks an unusual move for the U.S., particularly under an administration that has largely eschewed major foreign interventions.  The White House has framed the deal as a strategic effort to stabilize a key regional ally. But it has drawn criticism at home. Many Democratic lawmakers have accused Trump of prioritizing foreign bailouts and investor protections while the U.S. government remains shut down. American farmers have also voiced frustration, noting that China has shifted soybean purchases from U.S. producers to Argentine growers this year. While details of the agreement remain unclear, the bailout could offer Milei a much-needed political boost as he works to stave off a deepening economic crisis and shore up his party's support. He suffered a major setback last month when his party lost a key provincial election and now faces a critical midterm vote later this month. "It benefits the government to reach the election with a stable exchange rate, without having the peso devaluing, and without draining the central bank's reserve," said Ignacio Labaqui, a political analyst in Buenos Aires. At the concert-style Buenos Aires launch party of Milei's latest book last week, several of his supporters said that seeking help from Trump was simply a tool at his disposal and should not be politicized. "No country grows on its own, without outside help," said Kevin Nehuen, 24, a Milei supporter who traveled from the province of Neuquen in the Patagonia region. He pointed to how previous Argentine governments agreed to currency swaps with China to boost reserves. But the aid has also faced criticism from Argentina's left. From her apartment in Buenos Aires, where she is serving a sentence for corruption, former President Cristina Kirchner tweeted last month that "the 'help' from the 'forces of the north'" represents "food for today and hunger for tomorrow." The assistance also underscores the extent to which the Trump administration is willing to support a political ally who has cultivated strong ties with the president and American conservatives in recent years.  Milei, whom Trump has described as his "favorite president," was one of two world leaders onstage during Trump's inauguration. (Reporting by Nandita Bose in Washington; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal and Leila Miller; Editing by Ross Colvin, Alistair Bell and Edmund Klamann)

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By Leika Kihara and Howard Schneider TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. government shutdown that has turned off the official flow of data could begin clouding the view for policymakers in Japan and other countries where insight into the fortunes of the world's biggest economy informs the outlook for their own currencies, trade performance and inflation.  What happens in America, in other words, doesn't stay in America, and global officials say being left data-blind by the shutdown over time could complicate their own policymaking and boost the risk of a mistake at a moment when countries are already adjusting to the Trump administration's efforts to remake global trade. "It's a serious problem. We hope this gets fixed soon," Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing on October 3, as he discussed the hurdles the BOJ faces in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes. One Japanese policymaker went further.  "It's a joke. (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell keeps on saying the Fed's policy is data-dependent but there's no data to depend upon," said the official, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak publicly.  Bank of England policy member Catherine Mann said the questions surrounding U.S. data, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and other issues don’t figure as directly into BOE policy debate as the shifts in trade policy, for example, which directly affect things like prices and the export outlook. But she noted how over time the British pound lost its central status in the world, a process that took decades and was driven by multiple forces she referred to as “termites” that weakened the pound’s role over time. Policy changes that could degrade the dollar's standing or erode the Fed's independence, “are things that we have in our mind but they’re not front and center,” Mann said. But “they are the termites, as opposed to something that is imminent.” Finance and economic leaders from around the world are gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and – in a world beset by an ongoing European land war, tensions and violence in the Middle East, and long-term issues like climate change – much of the meeting's oxygen is likely to be consumed by discussion of U.S. President Donald Trump's plans for the world, his performance in office so far, and, now, the sudden stop of official information about a $30 trillion economy that accounts for roughly one-fourth of world output.  The shutdown could end at any time and the flow of data resume. But the episode is nonetheless symptomatic of a deeper set of issues around U.S. governance and data reliability, including Trump's efforts to gain new influence over the Federal Reserve and his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he was angry over a jobs report that the IMF cited among the "downside risks" facing the world right now. "Intensification of political pressure on policy institutions…could erode hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their mandates," the World Economic Outlook published Tuesday by the IMF stated. "Pressures on technocratic institutions mandated with data collection and dissemination could also erode the public’s and markets’ trust in statistics from official sources, significantly complicating the tasks of central banks and policymakers in making policy decisions…It also raises the likelihood of policy mistakes if political interference leads to compromise in data quality, reliability, and timeliness." 'THE RISK OF ERROR RISES' It is not as if all data has disappeared. The U.S. Federal Reserve, self-funded and not affected by the shutdown, continues to survey its extensive network of contacts about the economy, and private data services provide alternatives that policymakers have learned to knit into serviceable, if imperfect, substitutes at least for short-term analysis. “The month-to-month data flow in the U.S. gets talked about but never is a decisive factor," for other central banks, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker.  But Posen said that the shutdown itself and the tumult around BLS "contributes to the general skepticism about the governance of the U.S. and the reliability of the U.S….And that is important. It eventually feeds into reserve management and currency decisions and feeds into volatility outlooks for the U.S. that were not there before." If the spring IMF and World Bank meetings were all about the uncertainty posed by Trump's plans for higher tariffs and rising protectionism, attention is now fixed on how companies, countries and consumers are coping with the new landscape. Short answer: Not as bad as expected when Trump first took office, at least through September, but still adjusting, according to the IMF's WEO update that found "a significant, though not massive, impact of shifting policies on the economic outlook." After trimming its global growth outlook by a half percentage point in April to 2.8%,  the IMF in its latest projection published on Tuesday clawed most of that back, with global growth now seen at 3.2% for the year. But now, with a major hole in the flow of data covering around a quarter of global economic output, the view will get foggier the longer the shutdown lasts. "Certainly, there is still a great deal of information out there, and policymakers are dedicating substantial effort to gather micro data and anecdotal evidence," about the U.S. said Robert Kahn, director of global macro at Eurasia Group. "But how best to put it together, and importantly how markets will react to such news, are critical unknowns. As time goes on, the risk of error rises as uncertainties compound.” (Reporting by Leika Kihara in Tokyo and Howard Schneider in Washington; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci)

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By Leika Kihara and Howard Schneider TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. government shutdown that has turned off the official flow of data could begin clouding the view for policymakers in Japan and other countries where insight into the fortunes of the world's biggest economy informs the outlook for their own currencies, trade performance and inflation.  What happens in America, in other words, doesn't stay in America, and global officials say being left data-blind by the shutdown over time could complicate their own policymaking and boost the risk of a mistake at a moment when countries are already adjusting to the Trump administration's efforts to remake global trade. "It's a serious problem. We hope this gets fixed soon," Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told a news briefing on October 3, as he discussed the hurdles the BOJ faces in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes. One Japanese policymaker went further.  "It's a joke. (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome) Powell keeps on saying the Fed's policy is data-dependent but there's no data to depend upon," said the official, who declined to be named as he was not authorized to speak publicly.  Bank of England policy member Catherine Mann said the questions surrounding U.S. data, the controversy over the Fed's independence, and other issues don’t figure as directly into BOE policy debate as the shifts in trade policy, for example, which directly affect things like prices and the export outlook. But she noted how over time the British pound lost its central status in the world, a process that took decades and was driven by multiple forces she referred to as “termites” that weakened the pound’s role over time. Policy changes that could degrade the dollar's standing or erode the Fed's independence, “are things that we have in our mind but they’re not front and center,” Mann said. But “they are the termites, as opposed to something that is imminent.” Finance and economic leaders from around the world are gathered in Washington this week for meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and – in a world beset by an ongoing European land war, tensions and violence in the Middle East, and long-term issues like climate change – much of the meeting's oxygen is likely to be consumed by discussion of U.S. President Donald Trump's plans for the world, his performance in office so far, and, now, the sudden stop of official information about a $30 trillion economy that accounts for roughly one-fourth of world output.  The shutdown could end at any time and the flow of data resume. But the episode is nonetheless symptomatic of a deeper set of issues around U.S. governance and data reliability, including Trump's efforts to gain new influence over the Federal Reserve and his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he was angry over a jobs report that the IMF cited among the "downside risks" facing the world right now. "Intensification of political pressure on policy institutions…could erode hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their mandates," the World Economic Outlook published Tuesday by the IMF stated. "Pressures on technocratic institutions mandated with data collection and dissemination could also erode the public’s and markets’ trust in statistics from official sources, significantly complicating the tasks of central banks and policymakers in making policy decisions…It also raises the likelihood of policy mistakes if political interference leads to compromise in data quality, reliability, and timeliness." 'THE RISK OF ERROR RISES' It is not as if all data has disappeared. The U.S. Federal Reserve, self-funded and not affected by the shutdown, continues to survey its extensive network of contacts about the economy, and private data services provide alternatives that policymakers have learned to knit into serviceable, if imperfect, substitutes at least for short-term analysis. “The month-to-month data flow in the U.S. gets talked about but never is a decisive factor," for other central banks, said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker.  But Posen said that the shutdown itself and the tumult around BLS "contributes to the general skepticism about the governance of the U.S. and the reliability of the U.S….And that is important. It eventually feeds into reserve management and currency decisions and feeds into volatility outlooks for the U.S. that were not there before." If the spring IMF and World Bank meetings were all about the uncertainty posed by Trump's plans for higher tariffs and rising protectionism, attention is now fixed on how companies, countries and consumers are coping with the new landscape. Short answer: Not as bad as expected when Trump first took office, at least through September, but still adjusting, according to the IMF's WEO update that found "a significant, though not massive, impact of shifting policies on the economic outlook." After trimming its global growth outlook by a half percentage point in April to 2.8%,  the IMF in its latest projection published on Tuesday clawed most of that back, with global growth now seen at 3.2% for the year. But now, with a major hole in the flow of data covering around a quarter of global economic output, the view will get foggier the longer the shutdown lasts. "Certainly, there is still a great deal of information out there, and policymakers are dedicating substantial effort to gather micro data and anecdotal evidence," about the U.S. said Robert Kahn, director of global macro at Eurasia Group. "But how best to put it together, and importantly how markets will react to such news, are critical unknowns. As time goes on, the risk of error rises as uncertainties compound.” (Reporting by Leika Kihara in Tokyo and Howard Schneider in Washington; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -Deflationary pressures persisted in China, with both consumer and producer prices falling in September, supporting the case for more policy measures as a prolonged property market slump and trade tensions weigh on confidence. While China's export growth rebounded in September, renewed trade measures and threats from Beijing and Washington have rekindled concerns about jobs and further deflation. Policymakers have so far refrained from launching major stimulus, wary of creating a stock market bubble which could end in a repeat of the 2015 crash. Producer prices (PPI) in September fell 2.3% from a year earlier, narrowing from a 2.9% fall in August, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Wednesday. The decline was the smallest in seven months, helped by government efforts to curb price competition, and matched forecasts in a Reuters poll. The consumer price index (CPI) dipped 0.3% last month from a year earlier, less than a 0.4% fall in August and compared with a 0.2% fall in a Reuters poll of economists. "We continue to expect both CPI and PPI to stay in deflation this year and next," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. "Policymakers are now taking deflation more seriously. But we doubt that supply-side solutions they are proposing will succeed without substantial demand-side support," she said. Food prices fell 4.4% year-on-year, with the price of pork tumbling 17% despite recent government calls for leading hog producers to cut output. Food prices fell 4.3% in August. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, was 1% in September from a year earlier, accelerating from 0.9% in August and hitting a 19-month high. On a monthly basis, CPI was up 0.1%, versus no change in August, and below a forecast 0.2% increase. The combination of the Mid-Autumn festival and the National Day holiday failed to arrest a downtrend in holidaymakers' average spending, as cautious consumers were wary of discretionary expenses amid a weak job market and continued property sector downturn. Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING, said slowing momentum in the third quarter and another month of deflation suggest monetary policy easing remains on the table. "November, consequently, remains an interesting window to watch for potential easing," leaving the central bank with ammunition to support markets if trade talks do not go well, Song said. Authorities announced in May a raft of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a major liquidity injection, and the central bank vowed in late September to step up policy support. But major stimulus measures would also risk overheating the stock market, creating a dilemma for policymakers. Factory-gate prices have fallen since October 2022 but declines have lessened in recent months due to the government's calls for key sectors to scale back cut-throat competition. A prolonged price war in the auto sector, for instance, has taken a toll on major automakers' bottom lines. While the government's campaign to fight against price competition in key industries helps manufacturers, a fresh tit-for-tat showdown between the world's two largest economies dampens hopes for a sustained trade deal. (Reporting by Zhang Yukun, Qiaoyi Li and Ryan Woo; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee Investors have chosen, at least for now, to look past simmering U.S.-China trade tensions, taking comfort instead from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks hinting at more rate cuts on the horizon. Global shares were once again upbeat on Wednesday, with European futures pointing to a sharply higher open, after a volatile session the previous day owing largely to trade whiplash. Markets may have Powell to thank for the reprieve, after his comments on Tuesday reinforced expectations of further easing this year, alongside a potential end to the Fed's balance sheet drawdown some time soon. That in turn left the dollar down and gold extending its record run once again, with futures now pointing to roughly 48 basis points worth of rate cuts by December. But if anything, the bouts of market volatility over the past few sessions are a reminder of how fragile investor sentiment remains. The U.S. and China continue to trade volleys in their ongoing tariff spat, the latest being Trump's warning that he might terminate some trade ties with Beijing, including in relation to cooking oil. The tariff shock from Friday – when Trump threatened additional levies of 100% on China's U.S.-bound exports – continues to ripple through markets, though each wave has been smaller as investors assume the two sides will keep shoving each other but not come to blows. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday said it depended on China whether the heightened tariffs kick in on November 1 or sooner, but acknowledged it might be hard for Beijing to find an off-ramp. Politics also loom large around the world. Japan's parliamentary scheduling committee could not agree on holding a vote to select the next prime minister on October 21, local media reported on Wednesday, prolonging the uncertainty over Sanae Takaichi's bid to become the nation's first female premier. And in France, eyes will be on what comes next for the government, after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu promised to suspend a landmark pension reform until after the 2027 election. Over on Wall Street, earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are due later in the day. Expectations are running high after their peers reported a solid set of results on Tuesday. Top U.S. bankers predicted business would continue to boom as equity markets surged over the last quarter and the economy and consumer spending held up despite sweeping tariffs. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: – French political developments – Bank of America, Morgan Stanley earnings – Fed's Miran, Bostic, Schmid speak – Release of Fed's Beige Book (Editing by Sam Holmes)

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By Sam Li and Jeslyn Lerh SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's warning of a supply surplus in 2026 and U.S.-China trade tensions that could curtail demand. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.18 a barrel by 0425 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures eased 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $58.54 a barrel. Both contracts closed at five-month lows in the previous trading session. The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday the global oil market could face a surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day, a bigger glut than it earlier forecast, as OPEC+ producers and rivals raise output and demand remains sluggish. "The market is focusing on excess supply amid mixed demand signals. Ebbing geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions are also adding further pressure on prices," said Emril Jamil, a senior oil analyst at LSEG. The trade dispute between the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers, has reignited in the past week, with both countries imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them. That will raise trading costs and disrupt freight flows, likely lowering economic output. "The focus will remain on the recent re-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China and the risks it brings to the global economy," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. The tensions between the world's two largest economies intensified after China last week announced a major expansion of rare earth export controls and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export curbs from November 1. "Beyond U.S.-China trade relations and the progress of talks, the key for oil prices now is the degree of oversupply, reflected in changes in global inventories," said Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures. For a view on U.S. demand, traders will be awaiting weekly inventory data. U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to have risen last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed. Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 200,000 barrels in the week to October 10. The weekly industry report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Wednesday, and U.S. Energy Information Administration data at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday. Both reports are delayed by a day due to the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day holiday on Monday. (Reporting by Sam Li in Beijing and Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Editing by Sonali Paul and Christian Schmollinger)

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(Reuters) -ChatGPT owner OpenAI is working on new revenue lines, debt partnerships and planning further fundraising as part of a five-year strategy to cover more than $1 trillion in pledged spending, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. (Reporting by Mrinmay Dey in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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(Reuters) -U.S. retailers are bracing for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts. The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers' annual sales. In recent weeks, several companies have issued mixed earnings forecasts heading into the season. While Walmart and Macy's raised their outlook, toymaker Mattel cut its forecast. Target maintained its annual expectations. Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys: SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers ers projected the are expected to steepest spend about $1,552 year-over-year drop per person on in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3% spending since the from last year. pandemic, primarily fueled by Gen Z shoppers pulling back amid economic uncertainty. Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during are expected to the November grow at their 2025-January 2026 slowest pace since period are expected the pandemic. to rise between A 2.9% and 3.4%, survey conducted by compared with a Deloitte showed the 4.2% increase last least optimistic year, marking the outlook on economic slowest growth sentiment since the since the 2018-2019 firm started season. tracking it in E-commerce sales 1997.  are projected to increase between 7% The and 9% during the survey also said season, consumers expect to compared with last reduce their year's 8% growth. spending on both In-store sales are retail goods and projected to rise experiences, with between 2% and nearly all 2.2%, compared to a generations and 3.4% growth in income groups 2024. planning to pull back on spending Consumers are this season, except expected to spend for Gen X shoppers. an average of $1,595, down 10% from last year, according to a survey of 4,270 consumers conducted online by an independent research company and fielded between August 27 and September 5. 77% of surveyed consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% expect the economy to weaken in 2026, with 56% of respondents being concerned about a potential recession in the next six months. Salesforce The software Online spending is company projects a expected to rise slower growth in 2.1% to $288 online spending billion, lower than between November 1 a 4% increase in and December 31. the same period last year.  Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are Economics Institute expected to rise expects U.S. 3.6% between holiday sales November 1 and growth to moderate December 24 this this year. Still, year, compared to a it will be driven 4.1% growth in the by promotions, as same period last consumers seek the year. best value for Online sales are their money amid expected to jump broader 7.9% this holiday macroeconomic season, compared to uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last year. In-store sales are projected to grow 2.3%. It rose 2.8% in the 2024 holiday season. Adobe Analytics U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to slower pace this $253.4 billion year, Adobe between November 1 Analytics projects, and December 31, as macroeconomic compared with an uncertainty 8.7% rise last continues to year. pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales spending. is expected to rise 6.3% to $14.2 billion. Consumer spending between October 7 and October 8 is expected to be $9 billion, a 6.2% increase compared with last year, as the data firm expects shoppers to kick off some of their early holiday purchases during Amazon's October Big Deal Days. EY-Parthenon Ernst & Young's U.S. holiday retail consulting firm sales in the forecasts a modest November-December rise in holiday 2025 shopping sales this year, season are expected driven mainly by to rise 2.5%, higher prices due compared with a to inflation. While 4.2% increase last higher-income year, EY-Parthenon households are forecast shows. largely unaffected The by price increases, sales growth at spending from 2.5% is expected to middle-and be the slowest lower-income since 2018, when it consumers is grew 2.4%. expected to be constrained due to While slower income total sales are growth and rising expected to cross credit dependency, $1 trillion, gains the firm says. are likely to be driven by higher prices, compared with last year, when volume growth made up about 85% of sales growth. (Reporting by Neil J Kanatt and Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

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KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Malaysia will hold talks with the U.S. secretary of commerce on sectoral tariffs, including on semiconductors, during a meeting of the ASEAN regional bloc next week, Malaysian state media reported on Wednesday, citing the trade minister. President Donald Trump's administration in August imposed a tariff of 19% on Malaysian exports to the United States, though items like semiconductors are currently exempt pending a U.S. national security probe. Trump in August proposed a 100% levy on imported chips, though he said it would not apply to companies that already had a manufacturing footprint in the United States or planned to build one. Malaysia, the world's sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, has warned that any removal of tariff exemptions on its semiconductor exports by Washington could hurt its competitiveness and strain supply networks.   Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz said he will hold discussions with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on tariffs for semiconductors and other sectors, which have yet to be finalised, state news agency Bernama reported.  "I will hold discussions with Lutnick. He will also be attending the ASEAN Leaders Summit next week," Tengku Zafrul said, referring to a meeting of leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations set to run from October 26 to October 28 in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur.           He said Malaysia and the United States were currently negotiating a final tariff agreement, which is expected to be signed by both countries at next week's meeting.  Malaysia's agriculture, industrial, and manufacturing sectors, as well as those involved in trade and investment with the United States, are likely to benefit from the agreement, Tengku Zafrul added.     Several other countries are also expected to sign trade agreements with Washington at the upcoming ASEAN meeting, Tengku Zafrul said, without elaborating.  U.S. tariff rates for export-reliant Southeast Asia have been set at 19% and 20% for most of the region. Laos and Myanmar have been hit with a 40% rate, while Singapore has a 10% tariff.  (Reporting by Danial Azhar; Editing by David Stanway)

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