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By Manya Saini and Niket Nishant (Reuters) -Trading platform Robinhood Markets is open to potential acquisitions in the fast-growing prediction markets space, a top executive told Reuters in an interview on Monday, as interest in the once-niche asset class surges globally. "We as a firm are going to be looking to see if there is an acquisition that's available," said JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood. "That being said, what we also know is we have really good engineers that build great products here. So what we're going to do is try to balance the two." Prediction markets saw a surge in popularity during last year's U.S. presidential election and have since evolved into an asset class that lets investors wager on everything from monetary policy to major sports tournaments. Those wagers are placed through event contracts. Each contract represents a specific outcome that pays out if it occurs or expires worthless if it does not. The sector's growth has also drawn startups such as Underdog, which launched event contracts in September, allowing customers to profit from their views on sporting leagues. NYSE-owner Intercontinental Exchange took a $2 billion stake in Polymarket last week, underscoring the heating competition in the space. Robinhood launched its hub for trading event contracts in March, in partnership with prediction marketplace Kalshi, which was valued at $5 billion in its last funding round. It has also partnered with Interactive Brokers Group's ForecastEx. Brokerage Piper Sandler estimated that revenues from Robinhood's event contract offering were annualizing at over $200 million in September. "We estimate that Robinhood users account for about 25%-35% of Kalshi volumes on any given day," it added. Robinhood will also consider other avenues for growth, including a joint venture or a partnership instead of an outright acquisition, Mackenzie said. The company's shares have climbed 273% so far this year, through the previous close, lifting its market value to more than $123 billion and earning it a spot in the benchmark S&P 500 index. The company has rapidly broadened its offerings and diversified its customer base in a bid to evolve from a retail trading platform into a full-fledged financial services firm. (Reporting by Manya Saini and Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona)

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(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said on Monday that if inflation pressures do not moderate as she expects the central bank should be willing to take action. If inflation shows “a burst of, you know, shows some life, then the Fed's going to have to react appropriately, whether that's, you know, keeping the policy rate at, you know, current levels or whether that's increasing” the rate, Paulson said at an event held by the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. (Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chris Reese)

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By Manya Saini and Niket Nishant (Reuters) -Trading platform Robinhood Markets is open to potential acquisitions in the fast-growing prediction markets space, a top executive told Reuters in an interview on Monday, as interest in the once-niche asset class surges globally. "We as a firm are going to be looking to see if there is an acquisition that's available," said JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood. "That being said, what we also know is we have really good engineers that build great products here. So what we're going to do is try to balance the two." Prediction markets saw a surge in popularity during last year's U.S. presidential election and have since evolved into an asset class that lets investors wager on everything from monetary policy to major sports tournaments. Those wagers are placed through event contracts. Each contract represents a specific outcome that pays out if it occurs or expires worthless if it does not. The sector's growth has also drawn startups such as Underdog, which launched event contracts in September, allowing customers to profit from their views on sporting leagues. NYSE-owner Intercontinental Exchange took a $2 billion stake in Polymarket last week, underscoring the heating competition in the space. Robinhood launched its hub for trading event contracts in March, in partnership with prediction marketplace Kalshi, which was valued at $5 billion in its last funding round. It has also partnered with Interactive Brokers Group's ForecastEx. Brokerage Piper Sandler estimated that revenues from Robinhood's event contract offering were annualizing at over $200 million in September. "We estimate that Robinhood users account for about 25%-35% of Kalshi volumes on any given day," it added. Robinhood will also consider other avenues for growth, including a joint venture or a partnership instead of an outright acquisition, Mackenzie said. The company's shares have climbed 273% so far this year, through the previous close, lifting its market value to more than $123 billion and earning it a spot in the benchmark S&P 500 index. The company has rapidly broadened its offerings and diversified its customer base in a bid to evolve from a retail trading platform into a full-fledged financial services firm. (Reporting by Manya Saini and Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Alan Barona)

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By Shariq Khan NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after assurances that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later in October, easing a flare-up in trade tensions between the world's top two economies that had pushed crude benchmarks to five-month lows on Friday. Brent crude futures rose 69 cents, or 1.1%, to $63.42 a barrel by 12:32 p.m. ET (1632 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 74 cents, or 1.3%, to $59.64 a barrel. Both contracts fell around 4% on Friday to settle at their lowest since May, after Trump threatened to cancel the meeting with Xi and to impose steep new tariffs on imports from China. However, U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent said on Monday that the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders remains on track to be held in South Korea in late October, and noted substantial communications between the two sides over the weekend. "We have substantially de-escalated," Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business Network. The selloff in markets now looked to be capped by Washington and Beijing's willingness to negotiate, DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks. Oil prices tumbled in March and April at the height of trade tensions between the two countries. "Any reduction in international trade can only be bearish for oil," PVM energy analysts said in a note to clients. On the demand side, China's crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next. In a monthly report on Monday, OPEC implied that the oil market will see a much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ group pushes ahead with output increases. Meanwhile, prospects of peace in the Middle East helped cap oil's gains. Palestinian militant group Hamas freed the last 20 surviving Israeli hostages on Monday under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal. Trump proclaimed the "historic dawn of a new Middle East" after two years of war in Gaza. Still, traders will want to see the peace hold before factoring it into their bets on oil prices, PVM analysts noted. "(Oil) market has been sceptical by voting with price as to any bullish influence on the recent outbreak of violence, it likewise too will wait for proof of a ceasefire that holds for more than just a couple of days," the PVM analysts said. (Reporting by Shariq Khan, Enes Tunagur, Ahmad Ghaddar and Florence TanEditing by Susan Fenton, Bernadette Baum and Frances Kerry)

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(Reuters News) -Beyond Meat shares tumbled as much as 58% on Monday after the plant-based meat maker announced an early settlement of an exchange offer with its bondholders through the issue of fresh shares and notes to manage its debt. Once a Wall Street darling, the company has in recent years struggled with changing consumer sentiment around taste, price and processing, particularly in the U.S. Shares of the company, which disclosed about $1.3 billion in debt at the end of 2024, were last trading at $1.03. The stock hit a record high of $239.71 in July 2019, just months after a blockbuster debut.  Beyond Meat will issue about $208.7 million in new 7% convertible notes due 2030 and around 316 million shares to participating investors after nearly 97% of its bondholders agreed to the swap. While the exchange provides Beyond Meat more time to pay down its debt, the stock offering means a massive dilution. The company's outstanding shares stood at 76.65 million, as of last close. Beyond Meat's shares dropped 36% on September 29 when the company launched the exchange offer to cut more than $800 million in debt. With current short interest at about 64% of its total free float, the company is also among the most shorted U.S. stocks, data from analytics firm Ortex showed. Beyond Meat withdrew its annual targets in May after missing quarterly expectations. Analysts expect its revenue to fall nearly 14% to $281.57 million in the current fiscal year, according to data compiled by LSEG. The company went public in a blockbuster listing in 2019, with the stock opening at $46, well above its IPO price of $25, and had a market capitalization of around $3.8 billion at the time. The early settlement is expected on October 15 after the company surpassed the minimum participation threshold of 85%. The stock has fallen for four years straight and is down about 46% so far in 2025, according to LSEG data. (Reporting by Juveria Tabassum in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Lance Tupper and Shashwat Chauhan; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Sriraj Kalluvila)

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By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -In her first speech as head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Anna Paulson said on Monday that rising risks to the job market argue for more interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank, as trade tariffs are unlikely to push up inflation as much as expected. "Given my views on tariffs and inflation, monetary policy should be focused on balancing risks to maximum employment and price stability, which means moving policy towards a more neutral stance," Paulson said in the text of a speech to be presented before a gathering of the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. "Labor market risks do appear to be increasing – not outrageously, but noticeably. And momentum seems to be going in the wrong direction," so that now deserves to be the focus of policy, she said. While Paulson did not say specifically how she'd like the Fed to proceed with rate cuts, she noted, "I view easing along the lines" of the forecasts released by the Fed at its policy meetings last month as the likely way forward.   The Fed last month cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.00%-4.25% range. It also penciled in an additional half percentage point of easing before the end of 2025 and more cuts next year and in 2027. Paulson said the recent rate cut "made sense," as the central bank sought to offset risks to the job market. Paulson took the helm of the Philadelphia Fed in July, succeeding Patrick Harker, who retired before returning to academia. Prior to joining the Philadelphia Fed, she was research director at the Chicago Fed. In recent comments, Fed officials have been grappling with the monetary policy outlook. While the recent rate cut had broad support, a number of policymakers remain worried that President Donald Trump's tariffs will drive up still-high inflation levels, while others are worried about the job market and believe the Fed should act strongly to support it. Paulson said tariffs should push up inflation, but added that she doesn't expect the gains to be persistent. She also said the current "modestly restrictive" stance of monetary policy is working to tamp down on inflation pressures, while noting that stable readings of long-term inflation expectations argue against the expectation of a persistent rise in price pressures. But Paulson also cautioned against a go-fast approach to cutting interest rates, given uncertainty around where the so-called neutral level of monetary policy lies. Looking ahead, she said "I anticipate that 2026 will see growth near potential, and inflation rising and then subsiding as tariffs, together with current and past monetary policy restrictiveness, work their way through." Paulson added that "if the economy evolves as I expect, the monetary policy adjustments we make this year and next will be sufficient to keep labor market conditions close to full employment." (Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)

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By Sukriti Gupta and Twesha Dikshit (Reuters) -Wall Street's main indexes advanced on Monday, rebounding from the previous session's sharp pullback, as investors returned to risk assets after President Donald Trump's softer tone eased concerns over renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. Aiding sentiment, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business Network on Monday that Trump was on track to meet his Chinese counterpart in South Korea as the two sides work on de-escalating trade frictions. "We're seeing a little bit of a bounce back from the fears that potentially a wider trade war with China was beginning and it seems like people are a little bit less fearful of that this morning," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. Tensions flared up last week after China's rare earth export control expansion. In response, Trump said on Friday he would impose an additional 100% tariff on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on critical U.S.-made software. The renewed friction led to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posting their steepest weekly declines in months. However, in a more conciliatory tone over the weekend, Trump said "it will all be fine" and the U.S. did not want to "hurt" China. China on Sunday blamed the U.S. for the escalation but did not roll out further countermeasures. The S&P 500 tech sector added 2.5%. Nvidia rose 2.9%. Broadcom surged 9.9% after partnering with OpenAI to produce the startup's first in-house artificial intelligence processors. The gains helped the broader semiconductor index add 4.8% and also boosted the tech-heavy Nasdaq. At 12:06 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 569.80 points, or 1.25%, to 46,050.01, the S&P 500 gained 99.56 points, or 1.52%, to 6,652.07 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 448.05 points, or 2.03%, to 22,655.47. The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector added 1.9%, with Tesla rising 3.3% and Amazon up 1.8%. Consumer staples declined 0.7%. Among other stocks, JPMorgan advanced 2.1% after unveiling a $1.5 trillion strategic investment plan. Oracle gained 5.7% as at least two brokerages raised their price target on the AI cloud firm. Estee Lauder advanced 6.1% after a report that Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock's rating to "buy" from "neutral". Fastenal dropped 5.1% after the industrial supplies distributor missed third-quarter profit expectations. Investor focus is also on the earnings season that kicks off this week, with major U.S. banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to release quarterly results on Tuesday. The season will prove as a litmus test for U.S. markets and provide fresh clues on the economy at a time when major official data releases remain delayed due to a continuing government shutdown. In the Middle East, Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza and Israel sent home Palestinian detainees as part of a ceasefire deal pushed by Trump. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.73-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.33-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 12 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 62 new highs and 93 new lows. (Reporting by Sukriti Gupta and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)

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(In October 10 story, corrects paragraph 15 to clarify that while some high-fee models have underperformed traditional models, full pass-through models are marginally ahead) By Nell Mackenzie LONDON (Reuters) -Eisler Capital's decision to close its flagship multi-strategy hedge fund as soaring staff costs eroded trading profit exposes the difficulty London-based funds face when trying to grow rapidly and replicate bigger, entrenched U.S. players, investors and industry insiders say. They warn that flows in the $4 trillion hedge fund sector will increasingly be absorbed by incumbents – likely leaving an industry that runs on public pension and retirement money concentrated in the hands of a few big firms with an outsized impact on financial markets. Eisler said last week that it would shut just four years after it pivoted to try and emulate the kind of business model used by the most renowned U.S. headquartered multi-strategy hedge funds such as Citadel, Balyasny and Millennium Management that trade different strategies under one roof. Crucially, Eisler also changed how it charged investors, adopting a pass-through fee structure, where costs take a bite out of trading returns. At Eisler, this meant that on top of a 15-20% performance fee, investors paid the hedge fund's expenses and compensation costs, an investor document seen by Reuters showed.   Eisler's turnover climbed by over 40% between 2023 and 2024, a Reuters analysis of the hedge fund's publicly reported accounts showed. But its staff costs grew much faster, over 900% in five years, outpacing its ability to retain profit and leaving investors with smaller and smaller net returns.  "Multi-strats strike me as the final frontier…what percentage take of gross profits can we squeeze investors on without losing them?" asked hedge fund investor Harald Berlinicke, CIO of Berlin-based Max-Berlinicke-Erben Family Office. "It's not an easy balancing act to get right for a new kid on the block as the sky-high fees the established players can charge gives them an edge in terms of attracting the right talent."  A representative for Eisler Capital declined to comment. Citadel, Balyasny and Millennium also declined to comment. In its last investor letter in October, Eisler highlighted the burden of compensation costs.  Portfolio managers are the most expensive they have ever been, three recruitment professionals, who wished to remain anonymous, told Reuters. They mentioned direct knowledge of star fund managers hired in New York and London this year on salaries of over $100 million, which can prove costly for investors if not offset by stellar trading returns.  BLAME THE MODEL? Investors in pass-through funds receive less than half of the trading spoils, according to Barclays research. While they may have been content with that when multi-manager funds were outperforming the wider industry, net returns of these hedge funds in the last 12 months are now just 0.3% ahead of peers with fixed charges, Barclays said in a July client note. Pass-through fees have, however, traditionally been too rich for some European pension funds. "In Europe, some of the world’s largest and most prestigious pension funds have stated they prefer to invest in lower net returning managers with lower fees than higher net returning managers with higher fees," said Michael Oliver Weinberg, deputy CIO of a family office and previously at Dutch pension fund manager APG.  London is home to large and well-performing hedge funds, not necessarily all multi-strats but still successful, including Rokos Capital Management and Marshall Wace.   The partial pass-through model, seen with Man Group's 1783 Strategies fund, operates as a product included in a wider group of funds, some with lower fees.  Man Group, Rokos Capital Management and Marshall Wace declined to comment.  Berlinicke said that while some investors may give established pass-through funds the benefit of the doubt, that might not be true for newer entrants given the level of the fees.  Meanwhile, one effect of the growing sway of multi-strategy funds was that stock price swings on earnings days in 2024 were the largest since at least 2016, a Reuters analysis showed.  NEW YORK, NEW YORK  New York has been the centre of the multi-manager model with pass-through fees and that won't change, investors said.  London, the second largest hedge fund centre, has 171 hedge fund managers, compared to 911 in New York, a city which has accounted for roughly 85% of hedge funds consistently for the last five years, data from hedge fund research firm PivotalPath shows.  Other centres such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi are also emerging as rivals.  "Crowding in markets has always been something to watch out for," said Berlinicke. "The question is whether large players grow and will that be a problem for markets? Possibly, if they dominate strategies or certain parts of the market."  (Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Kirsten Donovan)

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By Giulio Piovaccari MILAN (Reuters) -Stellantis is set to delay the unveiling of its new strategic plan to the second quarter of next year to give CEO Antonio Filosa more time to address major uncertainties in the carmaker's key markets. The decision, which Stellantis flagged in an analyst call on Friday, underscores the challenges facing Filosa, who took over in June, as the French-Italian-American automaker grapples with rising trade barriers in the U.S. and evolving regulation in the European Union. "While we had initially indicated Q1 2026, it would now be more accurate to say H1 2026," Stellantis global head of investor relations Ed Ditmire told analysts late on Friday, according to a transcript of the call. The delay will give the automaker a chance to better address "critical exogenous factors" such as U.S. tariffs and "the robust engagement of our industry with policymakers in Europe", the transcript showed. Filosa warned in July of a 1.5 billion euro ($1.73 billion) hit from U.S. tariffs in 2025. Last year more than 40% of the 1.2 million vehicles the company sold in the U.S., its main market, were imports, mostly from Mexico and Canada, on which Washington has imposed tariffs of 25%. The CEO, who in recent weeks has reshuffled the group's top management ranks, promoting close associates to key positions, said last month he did not yet see the U.S. tariff scenario as final. He has pledged new vehicle launches to reconnect with customers as he aimed to get the automaker back on track after a dismal 2024. "We expect to make final decisions on timing relatively soon and communicate it promptly," Ditmire said. In Europe, Filosa needs to wait for the outcome of the EU Commission's review of its 2035 zero-emission regulation for the auto industry, due at the end of this year. Stellantis shares closed down 7.3% on Friday after a positive first half of the session in which the company released preliminary sales data for the third quarter. Shares had rebounded 2.9% by 1237 GMT on Monday. Barclays analysts said Friday's share drop had followed the call and highlighted "another nervous reaction (by the market) – and again on limited new news." In a note on Monday Barclays said there had been "strongly increasing investor interest in Stellantis", pointing to positive elements recently such as U.S. September market share and comments on order momentum. However, Barclays also sounded a note of caution. "We think it still seems premature to fully re-engage while adjusted operating income and free cash flow visibility remain limited and the all-new management team is performing a significant strategic pivot," the broker said.   Stellantis is due to release its third-quarter shipment and revenue data on October 30. ($1 = 0.8646 euros) (Reporting by Giulio Piovaccari; Editing by Valentina Za, Alexander Smith and Jan Harvey)

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By Nupur Anand NEW YORK (Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase announced plans on Monday to hire bankers and invest up to $10 billion in U.S. companies considered critical to national security and economic resilience as part of a broader $1.5 trillion pledge.  The 10-year initiative aims to facilitate, finance and invest in industries central to the growth of the U.S. economy, including defense, energy and manufacturing. Shares of the largest U.S. bank climbed more than 2%. JPMorgan said it will deploy the $10 billion through direct equity and venture capital investments. CEO DIMON: INITIATIVE NOT TRUMP-DRIVEN, '100% COMMERCIAL' U.S. President Donald Trump is looking to modernize infrastructure and reduce dependence on foreign supply chains, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, clean energy and rare earth minerals.  Monday's announcement also follows criticism from Trump of JPMorgan and its rivals for so-called "debanking" clients for their political or religious beliefs. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, speaking on a conference call during which he was asked several times about the government's involvement, said the investments were not driven by the Trump administration. "This is a JPMorgan initiative," he said, emphasizing that the investments would be "100% commercial" and not philanthropic. Trump revived a trade war with Beijing on Friday, ending an uneasy truce between the world's two largest economies with promises to sharply hike tariffs in a reprisal against China curbing its rare earths exports. "It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing – all of which are essential for our national security," Dimon said in an earlier statement. JPMorgan said its new "security and resiliency initiative" would facilitate financing and investment across four strategic sectors: supply chain and manufacturing; defense and aerospace; energy independence; and frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. The firm said it had already planned to facilitate and finance about $1 trillion over the next decade in support of clients in these industries, according to previously undisclosed internal figures, but it would increase the size by 50%. US PURSUING DEALS INVOLVING DOZENS OF COMPANIES The U.S. government is pursuing deals across up to 30 industries, involving dozens of companies deemed critical to national or economic security, Reuters reported this month. JPMorgan, which helped put together the government's deal with U.S. rare earths mining company MP Materials, said in a recent company podcast that the bank was working with the Trump administration to explore more such opportunities. "We've had no less than 100 calls with clients to talk about the MP transaction as well as what this means for other industries," said Andrew Castaldo, JPMorgan co-head of mid-cap mergers and acquisitions. "And we've had numerous trips down to Washington to explore those opportunities with the government." Dimon also emphasized the need for policy reform to accelerate progress, citing regulatory delays and workforce challenges.  "America needs more speed and investment," he said.  FOUR KEY INVESTMENT AREAS  The four key investment areas identified by the firm have been divided into 27 sub-sectors ranging from shipbuilding and nuclear energy to nanomaterials and secure communications. They will include middle-market companies as well as large corporate clients, it added. The bank plans to establish an external advisory council composed of public- and private-sector leaders, in addition to hiring more bankers and investment professionals. Dimon said he intends to hire a top-notch investment team quickly, without specifying how many bankers he planned to add. It will also expand research on supply chain vulnerabilities and emerging technologies using its recently launched Center for Geopolitics. (Reporting by Nupur Anand in New York; Editing by Jamie Freed, Lananh Nguyen, Mark Porter and Joe Bavier)

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