व्यापार

By Heekyong Yang SEOUL (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics is expected to post its highest third-quarter profit since 2022, driven by higher memory chip prices supported by server demand as customers rebuild inventories, analysts' estimates showed. The world's biggest maker of memory chips is projected to report an operating profit of 10.1 trillion won ($7.11 billion) for the July-September period, according to LSEG SmartEstimate from 31 analysts, which is weighted toward those who are more consistently accurate. This would be up 10% from a year earlier. Analysts attributed the recovery mainly to better conventional memory chip pricing, which would offset weaker sales volumes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips as Samsung has yet to supply its latest HBM products to Nvidia. HBM chips, critical for artificial intelligence (AI) development, are designed to reduce power consumption and process large datasets by stacking chips vertically. Analysts said demand for memory chips, particularly from hyperscalers and AI-related investments for services such as ChatGPT, have put more workload on general servers, thus boosting conventional memory chip prices. Prices of some DRAM chips, widely used in servers, smartphones and PCs, jumped 171.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to TrendForce data. While Samsung's conventional memory business performed well, analysts said delays in supplying its latest 12-layer HBM3E chips to Nvidia have hurt its profit and share price. Rivals SK Hynix and Micron have gained more from AI-driven demand, while Samsung's exposure to China, where advanced chip sales are restricted by the United States, has constrained its growth. Analysts said market sentiment toward Samsung's shares and chip business, including both memory and contract chip manufacturing, is expected to improve as it secures supply deals with major customers such as OpenAI and Tesla. Samsung shares have risen more than 43% following its announcement of a chip supply deal with Tesla in July. During OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's visit to South Korea earlier this month, Samsung, SK Hynix and OpenAI announced partnerships to supply advanced memory chips to the Stargate project. The AI chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, one of Samsung's major HBM customers, would also benefit Samsung, said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities. Ryu added that Samsung's $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla has lifted expectations that Samsung's struggling contract chip manufacturing business could win more orders from major tech firms if the company delivers the project as planned. While recent AI-driven supply deals signal a positive outlook for Samsung, analysts cautioned that uncertainties remain, including potential U.S. tariffs on chips and China's tightened export controls on rare earth materials used in advanced chips and manufacturing equipment. In September, Micron said it expects to sell out all of its HBM chips for calendar year 2026 in the coming months due to strong demand. Samsung will announce its estimates on revenue and operating profit on Tuesday, with full results due later this month. ($1 = 1,420.1000 won) (Reporting by Heekyong Yang; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

(Corrects to remove extraneous hyphen in headline, no other changes to text) By Christine Chen and Shivangi Lahiri SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's Treasury Wine Estates on Monday pulled its earnings guidance for 2026 and paused an A$200 million ($130 million) share buyback, citing weak sales of its flagship Penfolds wines in China and distribution challenges in the U.S. The announcement sent shares of Treasury, one of the world's top five winemakers by volume, down 14% to A$5.99, their lowest point in more than 10 years. Treasury said sales of Penfolds in China had been weaker than expected due to changing alcohol consumption habits, including fewer large-scale banqueting occasions.  China has been central to the Melbourne-based winemaker’s growth since Beijing lifted steep import tariffs that had kept the iconic label off shelves for more than three years. "If the performance trends indicated by the preliminary data continue through F26, Penfolds depletions targets for F26 in China are unlikely to be achieved," the company said. As a result, it said it was no longer appropriate to retain Penfolds guidance for low- to mid-double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and 15% earnings growth in fiscal 2027. "The complete withdrawal of guidance for Penfolds in FY26 and FY27 speaks to the high level of uncertainty caused by evolving consumption dynamics in the Chinese market," RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner said. In the U.S., Treasury said its operations had been disrupted by the exit of its distributor in California, Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC). The transition to new partner Breakthru Beverage Group would cost around A$50 million in sales, it said, with negotiations continuing over roughly A$100 million of inventory held by RNDC. The setbacks led Treasury to withdraw its group-wide earnings forecast for the 2026 fiscal year and pause a planned A$200 million share buyback programme announced in August. It already repurchased about A$30 million of shares. RBC’s Toner said the pause on the remainder of the buyback was "unexpected" but "prudent in our view in the context of near-term trading uncertainty". The winemaker said several initiatives were being implemented to mitigate the impacts of a weaker Chinese market in the year to June 2026, including pursuing opportunities to re-allocate product to select customers in other key markets. Treasury will hold its annual general meeting on Thursday. ($1 = 1.5333 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Christine Chen in Sydney and Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio, Diane Craft, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sonali Paul)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

(Corrects CEO's start date to May 12, not June 1, and changes share price gain to reflect corrected date in paragraph 9) By Scott Murdoch SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's ANZ Group said it would stop the remaining A$800 million ($520 million) of a share buyback but maintain its dividend as CEO Nuno Matos moves to build cash levels, simplify the bank and win back market share from its rivals. ANZ on Monday also outlined plans for A$800 million of pre-tax cost savings this financial year that would come from previously announced job cuts as well as team restructurings and exiting non-core businesses like online shopping cashback platform Cashrewards. "Our company has become too complex and at times disintermediated from our customers and we clearly need to improve how we manage our non-financial risks," Matos told an investor briefing. Shares in Australia's fourth-largest bank fell in early trading but turned positive, up 0.3% by 0017 GMT. The S&P/ASX200 was down 0.6%. Investors had expected the bank would announce plans to cut its dividend or stop the share buyback to help conserve cash. "For the bank to come out that it is not cutting the dividend is a positive result for shareholders and confirms that the bank is in reasonable shape," said Michael Haynes, analyst at Atlas Funds Management, which holds ANZ shares. Matos said the lender said it would increase its mortgage and business banker numbers by up to 50% in each division as it bids to win back market share it has lost to major rivals. The bank will also reduce reliance on mortgage brokers and aim to write more loans directly to boost its revenue from home lending. ANZ's shares had underperformed its major rivals but have risen more than 20% since Matos took over on May 12. The bank's year-to-date gains of 24% outrank the share price rises of its "Big Four" Australian bank rivals Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac. ANZ last month unveiled plans to slash 3,500 jobs at a one-off cost of A$560 million. Matos said on Monday about 60% of the job cuts would come from the retail bank and technology division. The former top HSBC executive has launched the reset at ANZ at a time when it is tackling major reputational issues and regulatory wrangles. The agency in charge of issuing Australian government debt said last week it would not work with ANZ until the bank improved its risk culture, after a 2023 bond trading scandal. ANZ agreed with Australia's corporate regulator to a A$125 million penalty after it was accused of acting "unconscionably" during a syndicated government bond deal in 2023. The fine was part of a A$240 million penalty the bank agreed to pay after it was also accused charging fees to thousands of dead customers and miscalculating bonus interest payments. The bank said on Monday it expected its final dividend to be in line with its half-year payout and it would apply a 1.5% discount on its next two dividend reinvestment plans. ANZ unveiled a new A$2 billion share buyback in May 2024 after the bank's first-half cash earnings largely met analyst estimates, but it had only completed about A$1.2 billion of share purchases before cancelling the buyback on Monday. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru and Scott Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Diane Craft, Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Scott Murdoch SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's ANZ Group said it would stop the remaining A$800 million ($520 million) of a share buyback but maintain its dividend as investors applauded CEO Nuno Matos' moves to build cash levels, simplify the bank and win back market share. ANZ on Monday also outlined plans for A$800 million of pre-tax cost savings this financial year that would come from previously announced job cuts as well as team restructurings and exiting non-core businesses like online shopping platform Cashrewards. The bank also now expects to double its cost savings from its 2024 acquisition of Suncorp Bank to A$500 million a year. Matos said ANZ had become too complex and disconnected from customers, and the bank's priority would be to improve its non-financial risk management. "The opportunities to rationalise the company in the first year are so obvious," he said at an investor briefing. Shares in Australia's fourth-largest bank closed 3.3% higher as investors reacted to Matos' plan, while rival major bank shares fell. ANZ's shares have surged 24% since Matos took the helm on May 12, outperforming its "Big Four" peers. ANZ said it would now target a 12% return on tangible equity by 2028, up from 10.3% in the past financial year, and aimed to achieve a target of 13% by 2030. "With a clear strategy, strong leadership and this simple execution, we are well placed to deliver meaningful value for our shareholders," Matos said. Investors had expected the bank would announce plans to cut its dividend or stop the share buyback to help conserve cash. The bank said on Monday it expected its final dividend to be in line with its half-year payout. "For the bank to come out that it is not cutting the dividend is a positive result for shareholders and confirms that the bank is in reasonable shape," said Michael Haynes, analyst at Atlas Funds Management, which holds ANZ shares. CHASING HOME LOANS Matos said the lender said it would increase its mortgage and business banker numbers by up to 50% in each division as it bids to win back market share it has lost to major rivals. The bank will also reduce reliance on mortgage brokers and aim to write more loans directly to boost its revenue from home lending. ANZ's mortgage market share stands at about 13.5%, lagging its major rivals National Australia Bank at 14%, Westpac at 21% and market leader Commonwealth Bank at 25%, according to recent regulatory data. ANZ last month unveiled plans to slash 3,500 jobs at a one-off cost of A$560 million. Matos said on Monday about 60% of the job cuts would come from the retail bank and technology division. The former top HSBC executive has launched the reset at ANZ at a time when it is tackling major reputational issues and regulatory wrangles. The agency in charge of issuing Australian government debt said last week it would not work with ANZ until the bank improved its risk culture, after a 2023 bond trading scandal. ANZ agreed with Australia's corporate regulator to an A$125 million penalty after it was accused of acting "unconscionably" during a syndicated government bond deal in 2023. The fine was part of a A$240 million penalty the bank agreed to pay after it was also accused of charging fees to thousands of dead customers and miscalculating bonus interest payments. ANZ unveiled a new A$2 billion share buyback in May 2024, but it had only completed about A$1.2 billion of share purchases before cancelling the buyback on Monday. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru and Scott Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Diane Craft, Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Maggie Fick LONDON (Reuters) -AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot looked relaxed standing in the Oval Office on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a medicine deal that will lower drug prices for millions of Americans. The hard work had paid off, allowing Soriot to clinch the first agreement for a non-U.S. drugmaker and shield his Anglo-Swedish company from threatened steep tariffs on imports to the U.S. – the world's largest pharmaceuticals market. That moment at the White House was the culmination of public and private meetings between Soriot and Trump officials, stretching back to November last year when Trump won election, three sources close to the negotiations told Reuters. And it went down to the wire with a last-minute push from AstraZeneca to seal the agreement. "You've kept me up at night and my team as well. But it's been really worth it," Soriot joked to Trump.  ASTRAZENECA CEO MET TRUMP AT ROYAL BANQUET The agreement will likely bolster the 66-year-old French-born Australian's reputation as something of a Trump whisperer, even as many CEOs globally grapple with the president's whipsaw tariff changes. Trump argues Americans pay far too much – often three times more, studies show – for prescription medicines than in other wealthy nations and set a September 29 deadline for drugmakers to cut prices, using threats of tariffs up to 100% as leverage.  Soriot's charm offensive started the week after Trump won the U.S. election. On November 12, AstraZeneca announced a $3.5 billion plan to expand manufacturing and research in the United States. Soriot, who arrived in the U.S. early last week, most recently met Trump at a September 18 royal banquet dinner at Windsor Castle in Britain, the first source said.  Over the summer he met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick at least three times in Britain and the United States, that source added. All three sources asked not to be named as the talks were confidential. Soriot also developed a close relationship with vocal Trump ally and Republican high-flier, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, all three sources said. That led to a rapidly-assembled deal for a $4.5 billion plant in the state, which took just over a month to go from initial talks to an agreement. On Thursday, a day before the Oval Office signing, Soriot and Youngkin stood shoulder-to-shoulder, shovels in hand, to break ground at the site. "Youngkin has a lot of ambition and his connections with the administration were clearly helpful," a second source said. "The Virginia facility deal showed the two sides were on the same page." ASTRAZENECA: A 'VERY AMERICAN COMPANY' Following the agreement and a deal a week earlier by U.S. peer Pfizer that boosted global healthcare stocks, Wall Street now expects more companies to reach similar agreements with the Trump administration in the coming weeks.  Shore Capital analyst Sean Conroy said that Soriot, who publicly backed Trump on drug pricing and called AstraZeneca a "very American company", secured a seat at the table in Washington with smart strategic announcements.  "That rhetoric has clearly resonated with the Trump administration and its agenda around Most Favored Nation drug pricing," Conroy said, referring to the lowest price paid in other wealthy countries after fees and rebates. SOME CONCESSIONS, BUT A WIN FOR ASTRAZENECA Analysts had estimated that AstraZeneca was less exposed to U.S. tariffs than many other major drugmakers, having already established substantial manufacturing capacity in the United States. But tougher regulation and more price pressure in the UK, where many drugmakers have criticised the government for not doing enough to support the sector, gave AstraZeneca a strong business argument for the U.S. deal.  Britain accounts for a small percentage of the company's revenues but is where it is headquartered and primarily listed. AstraZeneca is the largest listed firm on London's FTSE 100 Index. In contrast to Britain, U.S. officials are in the midst of an aggressive push to spur investment from firms like AstraZeneca and put in ample energy and effort to assist them, the first source said. In July, AstraZeneca announced a sprawling $50 billion investment plan for the U.S. market and in late September said it would do a full U.S. listing of its shares alongside its current London listing. By the time Pfizer signed its deal on September 30, AstraZeneca was already nearing its own finalised agreement, the three sources said.  Soriot headed to the U.S. early last week even as the last details were being ironed out. Each day a deal looked close but didn't arrive. The Virginia plant agreement solidified goodwill between the company and the Trump administration, which ultimately helped push the deal over the line, the third source said.  In the end, while AstraZeneca made concessions on some drug prices for Medicaid and pledged to produce more medicines locally, its U.S. arrangement marks a win for the company.  It gives more clarity, analysts say, without significantly denting expected revenues, which AstraZeneca is aggressively forecasting at $80 billion by 2030, with half of that coming from increased sales in the United States.  "Friday's deal is the last piece in the puzzle," the third source added. (Reporting by Maggie Fick; Additional reporting by Sabrina Valle in New York; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Joe Bavier)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Rodrigo Campos NEW YORK (Reuters) -Argentina's looming elections are the main risk to bullish market bets as a wave of U.S. financial support for President Javier Milei's libertarian economic policies does not guarantee that voters will back his minority party, investors say. Milei's right-wing politics have endeared him to President Donald Trump's administration, while his spending cuts and focus on inflation have given investors some of the best returns among emerging markets since he took power in December 2023. But recent electoral setbacks for Milei's party, fueled by corruption allegations reaching his inner circle, have hurt the leader's popularity, a key indicator for investors, hammering the peso and government bonds. His La Libertad Avanza party wants to increase its seats in both chambers in the October 26 vote so that he can advance his austerity and free-market overhauls of South America's second-largest economy, which has a history of defaults and other financial crises. FEARS THAT U.S. LIFELINE WILL END Argentine assets rallied on Thursday, ahead of a Friday market holiday, after the U.S. Treasury bought an undisclosed amount of pesos on the open market and completed a $20 billion swap framework with Argentina's central bank. On Friday, international bonds gave back a fraction of Thursday's gains, as did stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. With the U.S. lifeline easing some of the market pressure, the focus on the midterm election intensifies. "The markets are hoping Milei does well. The issue now becomes, if he does not do well, how much support continues to be given from the U.S.?" said Jason DeVito, senior portfolio manager for emerging market debt at Federated Hermes. "If it is not perceived that the actions from the United States are enhancing Milei's party or the coalition's ability to do well in the midterms, there's probably a fear that this type of support doesn't continue." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered no timeline for future interventions and his department did not respond to requests for comment on the specifics of the swap or how long the peso purchases would continue. More details of the U.S. lifeline are expected after Milei meets Trump at the White House on Tuesday. ELECTION KEY TO MILEI AGENDA Polling has shifted in recent weeks in Argentina, with corruption overtaking inflation as voters’ top concern. Opposition Peronists hope to build on their unexpectedly wide victory in Buenos Aires provincial elections last month, which unnerved markets. Keeping a lid on market uncertainty is positive for a government that had lost control of the narrative amid scandals – from Milei touting a cryptocurrency that soon crashed to a bribery probe. Milei has not commented on that incident and has not been accused of impropriety. The U.S. support is an opportunity to regain that control, said Juan Germano, founder of pollster Isonomia in Buenos Aires. The Argentine electorate is split on its views of the U.S. backstop, "but for the part that Milei wants to convince to vote, and was largely absent in the Buenos Aires vote last month, it is positive." A bill passed last week by the lower house to curb the power of presidential decrees makes the midterms even more important for Milei's economic overhaul to continue. "There is a question, if the U.S. Treasury actually has the ability to stabilize markets, whether this will sway voters in the midterm," said Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former chief economist at the State Department, adding there should be bipartisan U.S. support for seeing Argentina succeed. "It could cut both ways, because if Milei does poorly on the 26th he will not be able to push as radical a reform package as he has been able to do for the first two years, and markets will put pressure on whatever safety net the Treasury Department has put in place." (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Additional reporting by David Lawder, Nupur Anand and Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by William Mallard)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors hoped potential talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China could ease trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and oil consumers. Brent crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.47%, to $63.65 a barrel by 0622 GMT after settling down 3.82% on Friday at the lowest since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.79 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.51%, following a 4.24% loss on Friday to its lowest since May 7. WTI prices will settle on Tuesday as Monday is a public holiday in parts of the U.S. "Last week's price meltdown was largely on the back of ceasefire in Gaza and return of U.S.-China trade volatility ahead of the 10-Nov trade truce deadline," DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said. The selloff in markets now looks to be capped by both parties' willingness to negotiate, he said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks. U.S.-China trade tensions flared up last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he would impose 100% tariffs on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on "any and all critical software" by November 1. But on Sunday he said on Truth Social: "Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!" The moves come ahead of a potential meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea, which U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said could still happen later this month. "The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further – and possibly indefinite – extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. However, there is still the risk of trade tensions escalating that may lead to higher tariffs or more serious export restrictions, at least temporarily, they added. Oil prices tumbled in March and April during the height of trade tensions between the two countries. China's crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed, as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates so far this year and as stockpiling efforts continued. In the Middle East, Palestinian militant group Hamas released the first seven surviving Israeli hostages on Monday, an official involved in the operation said, the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement that Trump helped to broker aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza. (Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Sonali Paul and Jamie Freed)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang BEIJING (Reuters) -China's export growth bounced back in September, but renewed trade threats from Beijing and Washington have rekindled worries about jobs and further deflation in an economy heavily reliant on selling its manufactured goods overseas. The world's second-largest economy has greatly diversified its export markets this year to insulate itself from U.S. President Donald Trump's 35-percentage-point tariff hikes, helping to keep GDP growth on track towards a roughly 5% target for the year. However, this strategy could get a reality check should Trump carry out his threat of re-imposing triple-digit tariffs on China in retaliation for Beijing announcing sweeping rare earth export controls last week. "While China's economy has proven more resilient in the face of U.S. tariffs than many had feared, there is still significant potential downside from a deeper rift with the U.S.," said Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard. China's exports rose an annual 8.3% last month, customs data showed on Monday, beating a 6% increase in a Reuters poll and registering the fastest growth since March. They compared with a 4.4% increase in August. While the faster export growth is welcome news for a still-fragile economy, Trump's latest threat to raise U.S. tariffs above 100% would deal a deflationary shock to China and put smaller exporters and jobs of factory workers at risk. China's choke on rare earths and magnets, where its near-monopoly position gives it great leverage in the trade war, could also paralyse global supply chains in industries from autos to green energy and aircraft. These global risks have most analysts predicting that Beijing and Washington will work towards de-escalation in the coming weeks, and potentially preserve some chances that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may still meet at an APEC summit in South Korea at the end of the month, as previously expected. But the range of outcomes is now much larger than it was only a few days ago – a level of uncertainty investors may have to get used to as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies. "We believe both sides, after testing the other's boundaries, will likely make concessions again, and we still see a decent chance of a Xi-Trump in-person meeting during the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea at end October," Nomura analysts said. "We view this cycle of tension, escalation and truce as the new normal for U.S.-China relations." Monday's trade data was overshadowed by the fresh salvos in the U.S.-China trade war, denting Asian markets and sending Chinese stocks sinking sharply in volatile trade. EXPORTS UP IN NON-U.S. MARKETS Exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year-on-year, the data showed, while shipments bound for the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6% and 56.4%, respectively. "Chinese firms are actively tapping into new markets with the relative cost advantage of their goods, that's for sure," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit in Beijing. "The United States now only accounts for less than 10% of China's direct exports," he added. "100% tariffs would no doubt add to the pressure China's export sector is under, but I don't think the impact will be as large as before." But Chinese exporters have described the scramble to grow market share elsewhere as a "mad rat race," squeezing their profit margins and prompting cost-cutting measures at home, such as reducing staff and wages. DEPRESSED DOMESTIC DEMAND Factory owners face little choice but to slash prices in pursuit of overseas buyers as domestic consumers are keeping their wallets shut. This puts pressure on Beijing to introduce more stimulus measures to boost household incomes and domestic demand. Indeed, while China's imports grew 7.4%, their fastest pace since April 2024, against a 1.3% gain a month prior, and a forecast rise of 1.5%, analysts attributed the uptick to stockpiling by the world's biggest buyer of commodities. China's steel imports rose again last month, keeping the country on track for an all-time record this year, while coal purchases rose to a nine-month high, as rising prices spurred buying. Soybean imports reached the second-highest level on record, driven by strong purchases from South America, with Chinese buyers still spurning U.S. soybean cargoes. Earlier this month, Trump said he hoped to discuss soybeans with Xi during their planned meeting in South Korea. China's trade surplus fell to $90.45 billion in September, from $102.33 billion a month prior, and missed a forecast of $98.96 billion. China hoped to get back to the negotiating table with its U.S. counterparts, Wang Jun, vice customs minister, told a press conference ahead of the data release. The trade outlook greatly depends on how the high-stakes game of threats between Beijing and Washington unfolds in coming weeks. Lynn Song, chief Greater China economist at ING, expects that neither would want to return to "mutually damaging tit-for-tat escalations and retaliations." "However, the past few weeks show that the possibility of miscalculation is always present," Song said. (Reporting by Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang in Beijing and Marius Zaharia in Hong KongEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Monday as investors hoped Washington would temper its latest escalation of the trade war with Beijing after Friday's selloff, while political developments in France and Japan undermined the euro and the yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last down 0.1% at 98.908, following a short-lived rebound from declines after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on China. The broadside revived bad memories of Trump's Liberation Day rollout of sweeping tariffs in April and sparked a selloff in stocks and cryptocurrencies on Friday. "Certainly it's pretty nervous out there," said Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland.  "If you look at the U.S. and China stuff, it looks like Trump has done a bit of a TACO again and softened his tone," he added, referring to a trading adage that "Trump always chickens out." After announcing the 100% tariffs on Friday, Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday: "Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment," he posted on the Truth Social network. "He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!" Market liquidity may be affected by holidays as parts of the U.S. observe Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day later on Monday, though stock exchanges remain open. Japan was closed on Monday to mark Health and Sports Day. The euro stood at $1.1622, unchanged in Asian trading, after the French presidency announced Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's new cabinet lineup on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister. Against the yen, the dollar fetched 151.89 yen, strengthening 0.5% as markets assessed the path ahead for new Liberal Democratic Party leader Sanae Takaichi after Komeito quit the ruling coalition on Friday, dealing a blow to her hopes of becoming the first female prime minister of the world's fourth-largest economy. Cryptocurrency markets fluctuated between gains and losses after a sharp selloff on Friday, with bitcoin last trading down 0.2% at $114,849.14. Gold hit a fresh record of $4,068 an ounce and was last up 1.2%.  The offshore yuan traded at 7.1357 yuan per dollar, tacking on 0.2% in Asian trade after China's export growth picked up pace in September. "What China does in response to Trump’s latest tariff announcement will also affect how markets will respond in the coming days," said Vasu Menon, managing director for investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore. "Both the U.S. and China know that they cannot afford to ratchet up tensions too much, especially after having accomplished so much in trade talks in recent months," he added. "Ultimately, confrontation between the two superpowers could give way to reason, and the two leaders could prioritise their economies over their egos." The Australian dollar fetched $0.6525, rising 0.8% in early trade, while the kiwi traded at $0.5735, up 0.3%.  Sterling changed hands at $1.3347, up 0.1% so far on the day. (Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Jamie Freed)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By Rodrigo Campos NEW YORK (Reuters) -Argentina's looming elections are the main risk to bullish market bets as a wave of U.S. financial support for President Javier Milei's libertarian economic policies does not guarantee that voters will back his minority party, investors say. Milei's right-wing politics have endeared him to President Donald Trump's administration, while his spending cuts and focus on inflation have given investors some of the best returns among emerging markets since he took power in December 2023. But recent electoral setbacks for Milei's party, fueled by corruption allegations reaching his inner circle, have hurt the leader's popularity, a key indicator for investors, hammering the peso and government bonds. His La Libertad Avanza party wants to increase its seats in both chambers in the October 26 vote so that he can advance his austerity and free-market overhauls of South America's second-largest economy, which has a history of defaults and other financial crises. FEARS THAT U.S. LIFELINE WILL END Argentine assets rallied on Thursday, ahead of a Friday market holiday, after the U.S. Treasury bought an undisclosed amount of pesos on the open market and completed a $20 billion swap framework with Argentina's central bank. On Friday, international bonds gave back a fraction of Thursday's gains, as did stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. With the U.S. lifeline easing some of the market pressure, the focus on the midterm election intensifies. "The markets are hoping Milei does well. The issue now becomes, if he does not do well, how much support continues to be given from the U.S.?" said Jason DeVito, senior portfolio manager for emerging market debt at Federated Hermes. "If it is not perceived that the actions from the United States are enhancing Milei's party or the coalition's ability to do well in the midterms, there's probably a fear that this type of support doesn't continue." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered no timeline for future interventions and his department did not respond to requests for comment on the specifics of the swap or how long the peso purchases would continue. More details of the U.S. lifeline are expected after Milei meets Trump at the White House on Tuesday. ELECTION KEY TO MILEI AGENDA Polling has shifted in recent weeks in Argentina, with corruption overtaking inflation as voters’ top concern. Opposition Peronists hope to build on their unexpectedly wide victory in Buenos Aires provincial elections last month, which unnerved markets. Keeping a lid on market uncertainty is positive for a government that had lost control of the narrative amid scandals – from Milei touting a cryptocurrency that soon crashed to a bribery probe. Milei has not commented on that incident and has not been accused of impropriety. The U.S. support is an opportunity to regain that control, said Juan Germano, founder of pollster Isonomia in Buenos Aires. The Argentine electorate is split on its views of the U.S. backstop, "but for the part that Milei wants to convince to vote, and was largely absent in the Buenos Aires vote last month, it is positive." A bill passed last week by the lower house to curb the power of presidential decrees makes the midterms even more important for Milei's economic overhaul to continue. "There is a question, if the U.S. Treasury actually has the ability to stabilize markets, whether this will sway voters in the midterm," said Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former chief economist at the State Department, adding there should be bipartisan U.S. support for seeing Argentina succeed. "It could cut both ways, because if Milei does poorly on the 26th he will not be able to push as radical a reform package as he has been able to do for the first two years, and markets will put pressure on whatever safety net the Treasury Department has put in place." (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Additional reporting by David Lawder, Nupur Anand and Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by William Mallard)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)