TSMC Q3 profit expected to soar 28% on AI spending boom

By Ben Blanchard and Wen-Yee Lee TAIPEI (Reuters) -TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced artificial intelligence chips, is expected to post a 28% jump in third-quarter profit to a record due to the insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, though U.S. tariffs could impact its outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's No. 1 contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple, is forecast to report a net profit of T$415.4 billion ($13.55 billion) for the three months through September 30, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 20 analysts. SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate. TSMC has already flagged a market-forecast-beating rise in third-quarter revenue of 30%. Any profit result above T$398.3 billion would mark the company's highest-ever quarterly net income and its seventh consecutive quarter of profit growth. Mario Morales, group vice president at research firm IDC, said he expects TSMC's revenue to grow at least 30% to 35% this year. "I am expecting that TSMC will continue to outperform its peers given the ongoing exponential growth of AI infrastructure investments and that the leading chip suppliers such as Nvidia and AMD have only one place to go – TSMC," he said. Morales said that even as tariffs and trade disputes add uncertainty, AI infrastructure remains a "strategic land grab" for cloud-service providers, manufacturers and companies, ensuring investment continues to concentrate in that space. TSMC, Asia's most valuable listed company with a market capitalisation of around $1.22 trillion – nearly three times that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics – is due to report on Thursday and will provide fourth-quarter guidance in an earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT. It remains unclear how much U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will affect TSMC. Taiwan's exports to the United States are currently subject to a 20% tariff, but that excludes chips. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick proposed last month that Taiwanese companies split their production of chips 50-50 between Taiwan and the U.S., compared to the current setup where the vast majority of the production is on the island.  Taiwan has rejected that idea, and TSMC is already investing $165 billion building factories in the U.S. in the state of Arizona. Shares in TSMC have gained 30% so far this year on optimism over AI, largely brushing off tariff concerns. The heavyweight's rise has powered the benchmark Taiwanese index's 16.9% advance over the same period. ($1 = 30.66 Taiwan dollars) (Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Wen-Yee Lee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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