* EIA reports 80 bcf gas storage build, higher than expected * Waha Hub prices turn negative again on pipeline constraints * Tropical Storm Jerry not expected to hit US mainland (Adds EIA storage report, latest prices) By Scott DiSavino Oct 9 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a one-week low on Thursday on a slightly bigger than expected storage build and a smaller decline in daily output than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms injected 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 3. That was slightly higher than the 77-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 78 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 94 bcf over the past five years. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.1 cents, or -0.6%, to $3.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:34 a.m. EDT (1434 GMT), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since September 30. That decline came despite forecasts for cooler, more near-normal weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously projected. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell back into negative territory on Wednesday for the 11th time in the last 12 days as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan's Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin. That was the 20th time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.40 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Friday after passing the northern Caribbean Islands and then turning northeast toward the open Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Jerry is not expected to hit the U.S. mainland. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-month low of 104.9 bcfd on Thursday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Thursday's projected daily output was higher than forecast on Wednesday and compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through October 24. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 100.4 bcfd this week to 99.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. Week Wee Year Five ende k ago -yea d end Oct r Oct ed 3 aver 3 Sep age Actu 26 Oct al Act 3 ual U.S. weekly +80 +53 +78 +94 natgas storage change (bcf): U.S. total 3,64 3,5 3,61 3,48 natgas in 1 61 8 4 storage (bcf): U.S. total +4.5 +5. storage versus % 0% 5-year average Global Gas Curr Pri This Prio Five Benchmark ent or Mont r -Yea Futures ($ per Day Day h Year r mmBtu) Last Aver Aver Year age age 2024 (201 9-20 23) Henry Hub 3.34 3.3 2.58 2.41 3.52 3 Title Transfer 10.9 11. 12.8 10.9 15.4 Facility (TTF) 4 24 9 5 7 Japan Korea 11.1 11. 13.3 11.8 15.2 Marker (JKM) 2 14 5 9 3 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Curr Pri Prio 10-Y 30-Y Forecast ent or r ear ear Day Day Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 116 98 89 105 131 U.S. GFS CDDs 54 62 59 58 40 U.S. GFS TDDs 170 160 148 163 171 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prio Cur Next This Five r ren Week Week -Yea Week t Last r Wee Year (202 k 0-20 24) Aver age For Mont h U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 107. 106 106. 101. 98.1 Dry Production 3 .2 5 7 U.S. Imports 6.8 6.9 7.1 N/A 7.4 from Canada U.S. LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports Total U.S. 114. 113 113. N/A 105. Supply 2 .1 6 5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports 2.1 2.4 2.4 N/A 2.2 to Canada U.S. Exports 6.8 6.5 6.7 N/A 6.1 to Mexico U.S. LNG 16.2 16. 16.5 12.6 11.3 Export Feedgas 2 U.S. 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.4 6.9 Commercial U.S. 4.0 4.8 6.4 4.9 7.1 Residential U.S. Power 38.4 35. 32.0 36.6 31.7 Plant 7 U.S. 21.9 22. 22.3 22.1 22.4 Industrial 1 U.S. Plant 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2 Fuel U.S. Pipe 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 Distribution U.S. Vehicle 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Fuel Total U.S. 76.6 75. 74.1 76.4 76.3 Consumption 3 Total U.S. 101. 100 99.7 N/A 95.9 Demand 6 .4 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest 2026 202 2025 2024 2023 River Forecast Curr 6 % of % of % of Center (NWRFC) ent Pr Norm Norm Norm at The Dalles Day ior al al al Dam (Fiscal % of Day Actu Actu Actu year ending Norm % al al al Sep 30) al of Fore Nor cast mal For eca st Apr-Sep 93 94 76 74 83 Jan-Jul 87 87 78 76 77 Oct-Sep 88 88 80 77 76 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA Week Wee 2024 2023 2022 ende k d end Oct ed 10 Oct 3 Wind 10 8 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 4 4 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 44 42 41 38 Coal 18 17 16 17 21 Nuclear 18 18 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day Henry Hub 3.35 3.3 2 Transco Z6 New 1.9 1.8 York 1 0 PG&E Citygate 3.8 3.7 Eastern Gas 1.7 1.6 (old Dominion 1 6 South) Chicago 3.0 2.9 Citygate 1 7 Algonquin 2.2 1.8 Citygate 5 9 SoCal Citygate 3.5 3.3 Waha Hub -0.5 0.8 AECO 0.63 0.6 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day New England 35.4 43. PJM West 50.9 54. Mid C 46.6 36. 7 14 Palo Verde 53.5 31. 9 40 SP-15 41.2 28. 7 80 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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