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(Changes headline, no changes to text.) By Mimosa Spencer PARIS (Reuters) -The doubling of gold prices in two years, along with U.S. tariffs and a weaker dollar, have made it harder to defend gross margins for Tiffany owner LVMH and others in the high-end goods industry.  “Each of these [factors] alone could be offset by the high-end branded jewellery players and watchmakers but all together, it becomes very difficult" to keep profit margins from being eroded, said Jon Cox, head of Swiss equities at Kepler Cheuvreux.       Gold surged above $4,000 an ounce to a record last week as investors sought safety due to economic and geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts. PRESSURE ON PROFIT MARGINS LIKELY TO MEAN PRICE HIKES “There is bound to be margin pressure,” Cox added, noting brands would likely implement price hikes to shoppers gradually.    LVMH, the world’s biggest luxury conglomerate, is expected to report flat third-quarter sales when it reports on Tuesday, with a 4% decline in fashion and leather goods and 1% growth in watches and jewellery, according to a VisibleAlpha consensus figure cited by HSBC.       Jewellery brands, including LVMH’s Tiffany and Bulgari, Richemont’s Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Kering’s Boucheron have recently outperformed stablemates focusing on fashion. At LVMH, first-half sales in watches and jewellery were flat and profit sank 13%. Its fashion and leather goods division, which includes Louis Vuitton and Dior, saw profit plummet 18% on a sales drop of 7%. Watches and jewellery make up over 12% of LVMH sales, and fashion about half of group sales.  Tiffany and Bulgari are among LVMH’s top five brands in terms of annual earnings, according to estimates from HSBC.  CAUTION NEEDED ON PASSING COST HIKES TO CONSUMERS Despite gold’s sharp rally, the metal represents a small share of input costs for luxury jewellery brands, or just 10% of jewellery sales on average, according to Manuel Lang, equity analyst, consumer goods at Vontobel. That percentage drops to between 5% and 8% for designer brands at the very high end, said Bernstein analyst Luca Solca. So, "even a modest retail price increase could take care of material gold price increases," said Solca. As brands seek to ease pressure on margins, they would need to be cautious about passing on price increases to shoppers so as not to erode demand, other analysts said. For Swiss-listed Richemont, which focuses more on jewellery than rivals and has outpaced peers, that has not translated to upgrades to earnings forecasts due to factors like currency rates and gold prices, which were "completely out of their control," said Zuzanna Pusz, analyst with UBS.   (Reporting by Mimosa Spencer; Editing by Lisa Jucca and Bernadette Baum)

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By Ben Blanchard and Wen-Yee Lee TAIPEI (Reuters) -TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced artificial intelligence chips, is expected to post a 28% jump in third-quarter profit to a record due to the insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, though U.S. tariffs could impact its outlook. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's No. 1 contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple, is forecast to report a net profit of T$415.4 billion ($13.55 billion) for the three months through September 30, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 20 analysts. SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate. TSMC has already flagged a market-forecast-beating rise in third-quarter revenue of 30%. Any profit result above T$398.3 billion would mark the company's highest-ever quarterly net income and its seventh consecutive quarter of profit growth. Mario Morales, group vice president at research firm IDC, said he expects TSMC's revenue to grow at least 30% to 35% this year. "I am expecting that TSMC will continue to outperform its peers given the ongoing exponential growth of AI infrastructure investments and that the leading chip suppliers such as Nvidia and AMD have only one place to go – TSMC," he said. Morales said that even as tariffs and trade disputes add uncertainty, AI infrastructure remains a "strategic land grab" for cloud-service providers, manufacturers and companies, ensuring investment continues to concentrate in that space. TSMC, Asia's most valuable listed company with a market capitalisation of around $1.22 trillion – nearly three times that of South Korean rival Samsung Electronics – is due to report on Thursday and will provide fourth-quarter guidance in an earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT. It remains unclear how much U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will affect TSMC. Taiwan's exports to the United States are currently subject to a 20% tariff, but that excludes chips. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick proposed last month that Taiwanese companies split their production of chips 50-50 between Taiwan and the U.S., compared to the current setup where the vast majority of the production is on the island.  Taiwan has rejected that idea, and TSMC is already investing $165 billion building factories in the U.S. in the state of Arizona. Shares in TSMC have gained 30% so far this year on optimism over AI, largely brushing off tariff concerns. The heavyweight's rise has powered the benchmark Taiwanese index's 16.9% advance over the same period. ($1 = 30.66 Taiwan dollars) (Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Wen-Yee Lee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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By Heekyong Yang SEOUL (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics is expected to post its highest third-quarter profit since 2022, driven by higher memory chip prices supported by server demand as customers rebuild inventories, analysts' estimates showed. The world's biggest maker of memory chips is projected to report an operating profit of 10.1 trillion won ($7.11 billion) for the July-September period, according to LSEG SmartEstimate from 31 analysts, which is weighted toward those who are more consistently accurate. This would be up 10% from a year earlier. Analysts attributed the recovery mainly to better conventional memory chip pricing, which would offset weaker sales volumes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips as Samsung has yet to supply its latest HBM products to Nvidia. HBM chips, critical for artificial intelligence (AI) development, are designed to reduce power consumption and process large datasets by stacking chips vertically. Analysts said demand for memory chips, particularly from hyperscalers and AI-related investments for services such as ChatGPT, have put more workload on general servers, thus boosting conventional memory chip prices. Prices of some DRAM chips, widely used in servers, smartphones and PCs, jumped 171.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to TrendForce data. While Samsung's conventional memory business performed well, analysts said delays in supplying its latest 12-layer HBM3E chips to Nvidia have hurt its profit and share price. Rivals SK Hynix and Micron have gained more from AI-driven demand, while Samsung's exposure to China, where advanced chip sales are restricted by the United States, has constrained its growth. Analysts said market sentiment toward Samsung's shares and chip business, including both memory and contract chip manufacturing, is expected to improve as it secures supply deals with major customers such as OpenAI and Tesla. Samsung shares have risen more than 43% following its announcement of a chip supply deal with Tesla in July. During OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's visit to South Korea earlier this month, Samsung, SK Hynix and OpenAI announced partnerships to supply advanced memory chips to the Stargate project. The AI chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, one of Samsung's major HBM customers, would also benefit Samsung, said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities. Ryu added that Samsung's $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla has lifted expectations that Samsung's struggling contract chip manufacturing business could win more orders from major tech firms if the company delivers the project as planned. While recent AI-driven supply deals signal a positive outlook for Samsung, analysts cautioned that uncertainties remain, including potential U.S. tariffs on chips and China's tightened export controls on rare earth materials used in advanced chips and manufacturing equipment. In September, Micron said it expects to sell out all of its HBM chips for calendar year 2026 in the coming months due to strong demand. Samsung will announce its estimates on revenue and operating profit on Tuesday, with full results due later this month. ($1 = 1,420.1000 won) (Reporting by Heekyong Yang; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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By Enes Tunagur LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors focused on potential talks between the presidents of the United States and China that could ease trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and oil consumers. Brent crude futures rose 94 cents, or 1.5%, to $63.67 a barrel by 0824 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.81 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.54%. Both contracts lost around 4% on Friday to settle at their lowest since May. "Last week's price meltdown was largely on the back of ceasefire in Gaza and return of U.S.-China trade volatility ahead of the November 10 trade truce deadline," DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said. The selloff in markets now looks to be capped by both parties' willingness to negotiate, he said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks. Trade tensions flared up last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he would impose 100% tariffs on China's U.S.-bound exports. An expected meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month was in doubt after Trump said on Friday there was no reason to meet his counterpart. U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said on Sunday that meeting could still happen in South Korea on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. Oil prices tumbled in March and April at the height of trade tensions between the two countries. On the demand side, China's crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed. In the Middle East, Palestinian militant group Hamas released the first seven surviving Israeli hostages, the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement that Trump helped to broker aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza. (Reporting by Enes Tunagur in London, Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Jamie Freed, Kirsten Donovan)

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By Melanie Burton MELBOURNE (Reuters) -Australia is formulating a plan for its critical minerals reserve that will focus on sales of future production, limiting the need for a physical stockpile, industry sources said, as Australian and U.S. leaders prepare to meet next week. Australia's critical minerals task force hosted a call last week with miners and project developers across a range of metals as it steps up industry consultations, according to four sources familiar with the matter. The task force is seeking by the end of the year to have finalised its policy recommendations for the structure of a A$1.2 billion ($782 million) stockpile of minerals that it believes is vulnerable to supply disruption. The stockpile, which is expected to focus on rare earths, is expected to be ready by the second half of 2026. Reuters previously reported that Australia was willing to sell shares in its reserve to allies, including Britain. The push comes as Australia seeks to leverage its strategic importance as a key supplier to its allies ahead of a meeting between Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Oct. 20. Australia's resource and trade ministries declined to comment. Last week, Beijing tightened export restrictions on rare earths ahead of talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month. China produces more than 90% of the world's processed rare earths and rare earth magnets and has used export restrictions to throttle shipments, amplifying global concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities. "We've got vast resources of the critical minerals that the world is going to need to decarbonise, to build data centres, to process AI," trade minister Don Farrell told Australian broadcaster ABC on Sunday. "We need to have a broad range of customers, firstly to provide us with the capital to extract the products, but secondly, to ensure that we've got guaranteed markets to sell these critical minerals," he said. "We've been talking to the Europeans … the Japanese, the Koreans and of course we're talking with the Americans." 'LISTEN MODE' According to the sources, government officials are eager to show that they are in "listen mode." One person said that companies have been asked to make written submissions. Rather than stockpiling critical metals, participating governments would agree on annual supplies for future years and miners would sell those metals directly to consumers. The volume of that supply would then be deducted from the amount owed under a bilateral deal. "It’s more like a financial instrument than a physical stockpile," one of the sources said. Australian officials have yet to determine how risks will be managed for smaller markets like heavy rare earths, where most of the world's prices are tied to a China-based index that Western developers say is artificially set too low. Earlier this year, the U.S. government offered a multibillion-dollar deal to support its flagship rare earths producer, MP Materials, which included a minimum price that buyers must pay. Australia has said it is considering a similar plan, but sources said it would seek to reduce its financial exposure. "In an ideal world, Australia doesn't spend any money and acts more like a facilitator, so the other (consumer) countries are underwriting a floor price," a source said. Another idea that is circulating would have Australia contributing trades or material to back a "functioning Western price index," one source said. Another source said this idea was unlikely to work because the market size was too small to be liquid. ($1 = 1.5340 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Melanie Burton. Additional reporting by Kirsty Needham in Sydney; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus.)

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By Dhara Ranasinghe and Wayne Cole LONDON (Reuters) -World markets found steadier ground on Monday after being whipsawed by broadsides in the U.S.-China trade war, while gold hit new record highs in a sign that uncertainty remained high. While U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened 100% tariffs on China from November 1 and Beijing threatened countermeasures, he sounded more conciliatory on Sunday, posting that everything would be fine and the U.S. did not want to "hurt" China.  European shares opened higher, while U.S. stock futures also firmed although trading was subdued by a holiday in Japan and the United States.  In Europe, focus was on France with reappointed prime minister Sebastien Lecornu facing pressure to get a budget deal across the line. And in a sign that global uncertainties remained strong, gold hit fresh record highs above $4,000 an ounce, while Asia stocks fell sharply.  "The stabilisation in markets is encouraging," said Rory McPherson, chief investment officer at Wren Sterling in London.  "Given everything that is going on with the (U.S. government) shutdown, and political turmoil in France and Japan, markets have been strong. A pullback would be healthy." Beijing defended on Sunday its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment as a response to U.S. aggression, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that while he still expected an extension of the current tariff pause, recent developments suggested a wider range of outcomes was now possible. JAPANESE LEADERSHIP NOW IN DOUBT Many world leaders, including Trump, are due to meet in Egypt on Monday to discuss ceasefire plans for Gaza. Japanese markets had their own problems with the ascension of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi to prime minister now in doubt, contributing to a sharp rebound in the yen and a 5% dive in Nikkei futures on Friday. Japan's Nikkei was closed on Monday, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan tumbled 1.5%. Chinese blue chips fell 0.5%, though the rare earth and semiconductor sectors both firmed. Data pointed to some resilience in trade with exports rising 8.3%, almost twice the forecast, and imports up strongly. U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound when Wall Street reopens on Tuesday, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock futures up more than 1% each.  Earnings season kicks off this week with major banks reporting, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. S&P 500 companies overall are expected to have increased earnings by 8.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to LSEG IBES, and strong results will be needed to justify the market's high valuations. "Our guess is you might get, at least in the very near term, a more volatile and directionless environment for some of the risky assets. Ultimately, whether or not you go against the market in this environment depends on your conviction," said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier. FRANCE TURMOIL Politics cast a cloud over Europe as the French presidency announced Lecornu's new cabinet line-up on Sunday, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister. Lecornu must now steer a budget for 2026 through a deeply divided parliament and faces the threat of no confidence vote in parliament.  France's 10-year bond yield was up just 1.2 basis points at 3.48% and French stocks rallied 0.5% in a sign that investors were holding on to hopes for some near-term political stability. "Even if, very big if, Lecornu now lasts longer in office than on his first attempt, he will face an uphill struggle to get a budget for 2026 through the divided parliament by the end of the year," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.  Currency markets also saw some stabilisation after Friday's rush into the traditional safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The dollar rallied 0.7% to 152 yen, having slid 1.2% on Friday from a top of 153.29. The euro was steady at $1.1605, while the dollar gained 0.3% on the Swiss franc to 0.80105. The dollar index was steady, after losing 0.6% on Friday. In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday, while government bond yields in Europe nudged up.  U.S. and European bond yields had hit multi-week lows in the wake of Trump's tariff threat on Friday , while investors had added to wagers on more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. "Interestingly, the bond market held up on Friday and that was encouraging given the recent selloff in long-dated bonds," said Wren Sterling's McPherson. Futures implied around a 98% chance of a quarter-point cut from the Fed later this month, and a similar probability of another move in December. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to offer his guidance when he speaks on the economic outlook at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday.  A host of other Fed members are appearing this week, along with a who's who of central bankers attending an IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington. Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the U.S. and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. [O/R] Brent bounced 1.6% to $63.74 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 1.6% to $59.83 per barrel. (Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Ros Russell)

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By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) -The latest surge in global share prices and other assets has left markets susceptible to a crash given the current uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop, the G20's risk watchdog said on Monday. Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chair, Andrew Bailey, told G20 ministers in a letter the elevated risks made maintaining multilateral co-operation crucial. Not just to prevent crises, but also to support sustainable economic growth. "While most jurisdictions have seen a rebound in financial markets in recent months, valuations could now be at odds with the uncertain economic and geopolitical outlook, leaving markets susceptible to a disorderly adjustment," the letter dated October 8 and published ahead of G20 meetings in Washington this week, said. That warning came just days before U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of "massive" new tariffs on China in retaliation for Beijing tightening rare earth restrictions triggered Wall Street's biggest fall in nearly six months. Bailey also pointed to the ongoing rise in sovereign debt levels, adding that vulnerabilities in the financial system remain high. "The need for global standards and cooperation therefore remains abundantly clear," the letter said. In response to the elevated risks, the FSB, which groups central banks and financial regulators from the Group of 20 Economies, will "pivot" its focus, Bailey said. It will shift it from policy development to monitoring and facilitating the implementation of agreed global financial reforms, which have not been completely achieved. "The effectiveness of these measures depends on their timely, consistent and comprehensive implementation across all jurisdictions," Bailey said. (Reporting by Marc JonesEditing by Alexandra Hudson)

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