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By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) -The latest surge in global share prices and other assets has left markets susceptible to a crash given the current uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop, the G20's risk watchdog said on Monday. Financial Stability Board (FSB) Chair, Andrew Bailey, told G20 ministers in a letter the elevated risks made maintaining multilateral co-operation crucial. Not just to prevent crises, but also to support sustainable economic growth. "While most jurisdictions have seen a rebound in financial markets in recent months, valuations could now be at odds with the uncertain economic and geopolitical outlook, leaving markets susceptible to a disorderly adjustment," the letter dated October 8 and published ahead of G20 meetings in Washington this week, said. That warning came just days before U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of "massive" new tariffs on China in retaliation for Beijing tightening rare earth restrictions triggered Wall Street's biggest fall in nearly six months. Bailey also pointed to the ongoing rise in sovereign debt levels, adding that vulnerabilities in the financial system remain high. "The need for global standards and cooperation therefore remains abundantly clear," the letter said. In response to the elevated risks, the FSB, which groups central banks and financial regulators from the Group of 20 Economies, will "pivot" its focus, Bailey said. It will shift it from policy development to monitoring and facilitating the implementation of agreed global financial reforms, which have not been completely achieved. "The effectiveness of these measures depends on their timely, consistent and comprehensive implementation across all jurisdictions," Bailey said. (Reporting by Marc JonesEditing by Alexandra Hudson)

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By Heekyong Yang SEOUL (Reuters) -Samsung Electronics is expected to post its highest third-quarter profit since 2022, driven by higher memory chip prices supported by server demand as customers rebuild inventories, analysts' estimates showed. The world's biggest maker of memory chips is projected to report an operating profit of 10.1 trillion won ($7.11 billion) for the July-September period, according to LSEG SmartEstimate from 31 analysts, which is weighted toward those who are more consistently accurate. This would be up 10% from a year earlier. Analysts attributed the recovery mainly to better conventional memory chip pricing, which would offset weaker sales volumes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips as Samsung has yet to supply its latest HBM products to Nvidia. HBM chips, critical for artificial intelligence (AI) development, are designed to reduce power consumption and process large datasets by stacking chips vertically. Analysts said demand for memory chips, particularly from hyperscalers and AI-related investments for services such as ChatGPT, have put more workload on general servers, thus boosting conventional memory chip prices. Prices of some DRAM chips, widely used in servers, smartphones and PCs, jumped 171.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to TrendForce data. While Samsung's conventional memory business performed well, analysts said delays in supplying its latest 12-layer HBM3E chips to Nvidia have hurt its profit and share price. Rivals SK Hynix and Micron have gained more from AI-driven demand, while Samsung's exposure to China, where advanced chip sales are restricted by the United States, has constrained its growth. Analysts said market sentiment toward Samsung's shares and chip business, including both memory and contract chip manufacturing, is expected to improve as it secures supply deals with major customers such as OpenAI and Tesla. Samsung shares have risen more than 43% following its announcement of a chip supply deal with Tesla in July. During OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's visit to South Korea earlier this month, Samsung, SK Hynix and OpenAI announced partnerships to supply advanced memory chips to the Stargate project. The AI chip deal between OpenAI and AMD, one of Samsung's major HBM customers, would also benefit Samsung, said Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities. Ryu added that Samsung's $16.5 billion foundry deal with Tesla has lifted expectations that Samsung's struggling contract chip manufacturing business could win more orders from major tech firms if the company delivers the project as planned. While recent AI-driven supply deals signal a positive outlook for Samsung, analysts cautioned that uncertainties remain, including potential U.S. tariffs on chips and China's tightened export controls on rare earth materials used in advanced chips and manufacturing equipment. In September, Micron said it expects to sell out all of its HBM chips for calendar year 2026 in the coming months due to strong demand. Samsung will announce its estimates on revenue and operating profit on Tuesday, with full results due later this month. ($1 = 1,420.1000 won) (Reporting by Heekyong Yang; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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(Corrects to remove extraneous hyphen in headline, no other changes to text) By Christine Chen and Shivangi Lahiri SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's Treasury Wine Estates on Monday pulled its earnings guidance for 2026 and paused an A$200 million ($130 million) share buyback, citing weak sales of its flagship Penfolds wines in China and distribution challenges in the U.S. The announcement sent shares of Treasury, one of the world's top five winemakers by volume, down 14% to A$5.99, their lowest point in more than 10 years. Treasury said sales of Penfolds in China had been weaker than expected due to changing alcohol consumption habits, including fewer large-scale banqueting occasions.  China has been central to the Melbourne-based winemaker’s growth since Beijing lifted steep import tariffs that had kept the iconic label off shelves for more than three years. "If the performance trends indicated by the preliminary data continue through F26, Penfolds depletions targets for F26 in China are unlikely to be achieved," the company said. As a result, it said it was no longer appropriate to retain Penfolds guidance for low- to mid-double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and 15% earnings growth in fiscal 2027. "The complete withdrawal of guidance for Penfolds in FY26 and FY27 speaks to the high level of uncertainty caused by evolving consumption dynamics in the Chinese market," RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Toner said. In the U.S., Treasury said its operations had been disrupted by the exit of its distributor in California, Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC). The transition to new partner Breakthru Beverage Group would cost around A$50 million in sales, it said, with negotiations continuing over roughly A$100 million of inventory held by RNDC. The setbacks led Treasury to withdraw its group-wide earnings forecast for the 2026 fiscal year and pause a planned A$200 million share buyback programme announced in August. It already repurchased about A$30 million of shares. RBC’s Toner said the pause on the remainder of the buyback was "unexpected" but "prudent in our view in the context of near-term trading uncertainty". The winemaker said several initiatives were being implemented to mitigate the impacts of a weaker Chinese market in the year to June 2026, including pursuing opportunities to re-allocate product to select customers in other key markets. Treasury will hold its annual general meeting on Thursday. ($1 = 1.5333 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Christine Chen in Sydney and Shivangi Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio, Diane Craft, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Sonali Paul)

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(Corrects CEO's start date to May 12, not June 1, and changes share price gain to reflect corrected date in paragraph 9) By Scott Murdoch SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's ANZ Group said it would stop the remaining A$800 million ($520 million) of a share buyback but maintain its dividend as CEO Nuno Matos moves to build cash levels, simplify the bank and win back market share from its rivals. ANZ on Monday also outlined plans for A$800 million of pre-tax cost savings this financial year that would come from previously announced job cuts as well as team restructurings and exiting non-core businesses like online shopping cashback platform Cashrewards. "Our company has become too complex and at times disintermediated from our customers and we clearly need to improve how we manage our non-financial risks," Matos told an investor briefing. Shares in Australia's fourth-largest bank fell in early trading but turned positive, up 0.3% by 0017 GMT. The S&P/ASX200 was down 0.6%. Investors had expected the bank would announce plans to cut its dividend or stop the share buyback to help conserve cash. "For the bank to come out that it is not cutting the dividend is a positive result for shareholders and confirms that the bank is in reasonable shape," said Michael Haynes, analyst at Atlas Funds Management, which holds ANZ shares. Matos said the lender said it would increase its mortgage and business banker numbers by up to 50% in each division as it bids to win back market share it has lost to major rivals. The bank will also reduce reliance on mortgage brokers and aim to write more loans directly to boost its revenue from home lending. ANZ's shares had underperformed its major rivals but have risen more than 20% since Matos took over on May 12. The bank's year-to-date gains of 24% outrank the share price rises of its "Big Four" Australian bank rivals Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac. ANZ last month unveiled plans to slash 3,500 jobs at a one-off cost of A$560 million. Matos said on Monday about 60% of the job cuts would come from the retail bank and technology division. The former top HSBC executive has launched the reset at ANZ at a time when it is tackling major reputational issues and regulatory wrangles. The agency in charge of issuing Australian government debt said last week it would not work with ANZ until the bank improved its risk culture, after a 2023 bond trading scandal. ANZ agreed with Australia's corporate regulator to a A$125 million penalty after it was accused of acting "unconscionably" during a syndicated government bond deal in 2023. The fine was part of a A$240 million penalty the bank agreed to pay after it was also accused charging fees to thousands of dead customers and miscalculating bonus interest payments. The bank said on Monday it expected its final dividend to be in line with its half-year payout and it would apply a 1.5% discount on its next two dividend reinvestment plans. ANZ unveiled a new A$2 billion share buyback in May 2024 after the bank's first-half cash earnings largely met analyst estimates, but it had only completed about A$1.2 billion of share purchases before cancelling the buyback on Monday. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru and Scott Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Diane Craft, Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul)

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By Scott Murdoch SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australia's ANZ Group said it would stop the remaining A$800 million ($520 million) of a share buyback but maintain its dividend as investors applauded CEO Nuno Matos' moves to build cash levels, simplify the bank and win back market share. ANZ on Monday also outlined plans for A$800 million of pre-tax cost savings this financial year that would come from previously announced job cuts as well as team restructurings and exiting non-core businesses like online shopping platform Cashrewards. The bank also now expects to double its cost savings from its 2024 acquisition of Suncorp Bank to A$500 million a year. Matos said ANZ had become too complex and disconnected from customers, and the bank's priority would be to improve its non-financial risk management. "The opportunities to rationalise the company in the first year are so obvious," he said at an investor briefing. Shares in Australia's fourth-largest bank closed 3.3% higher as investors reacted to Matos' plan, while rival major bank shares fell. ANZ's shares have surged 24% since Matos took the helm on May 12, outperforming its "Big Four" peers. ANZ said it would now target a 12% return on tangible equity by 2028, up from 10.3% in the past financial year, and aimed to achieve a target of 13% by 2030. "With a clear strategy, strong leadership and this simple execution, we are well placed to deliver meaningful value for our shareholders," Matos said. Investors had expected the bank would announce plans to cut its dividend or stop the share buyback to help conserve cash. The bank said on Monday it expected its final dividend to be in line with its half-year payout. "For the bank to come out that it is not cutting the dividend is a positive result for shareholders and confirms that the bank is in reasonable shape," said Michael Haynes, analyst at Atlas Funds Management, which holds ANZ shares. CHASING HOME LOANS Matos said the lender said it would increase its mortgage and business banker numbers by up to 50% in each division as it bids to win back market share it has lost to major rivals. The bank will also reduce reliance on mortgage brokers and aim to write more loans directly to boost its revenue from home lending. ANZ's mortgage market share stands at about 13.5%, lagging its major rivals National Australia Bank at 14%, Westpac at 21% and market leader Commonwealth Bank at 25%, according to recent regulatory data. ANZ last month unveiled plans to slash 3,500 jobs at a one-off cost of A$560 million. Matos said on Monday about 60% of the job cuts would come from the retail bank and technology division. The former top HSBC executive has launched the reset at ANZ at a time when it is tackling major reputational issues and regulatory wrangles. The agency in charge of issuing Australian government debt said last week it would not work with ANZ until the bank improved its risk culture, after a 2023 bond trading scandal. ANZ agreed with Australia's corporate regulator to an A$125 million penalty after it was accused of acting "unconscionably" during a syndicated government bond deal in 2023. The fine was part of a A$240 million penalty the bank agreed to pay after it was also accused of charging fees to thousands of dead customers and miscalculating bonus interest payments. ANZ unveiled a new A$2 billion share buyback in May 2024, but it had only completed about A$1.2 billion of share purchases before cancelling the buyback on Monday. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) (Reporting by Rishav Chatterjee in Bengaluru and Scott Murdoch in Sydney; Editing by Diane Craft, Jamie Freed and Sonali Paul)

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By Maggie Fick LONDON (Reuters) -AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot looked relaxed standing in the Oval Office on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a medicine deal that will lower drug prices for millions of Americans. The hard work had paid off, allowing Soriot to clinch the first agreement for a non-U.S. drugmaker and shield his Anglo-Swedish company from threatened steep tariffs on imports to the U.S. – the world's largest pharmaceuticals market. That moment at the White House was the culmination of public and private meetings between Soriot and Trump officials, stretching back to November last year when Trump won election, three sources close to the negotiations told Reuters. And it went down to the wire with a last-minute push from AstraZeneca to seal the agreement. "You've kept me up at night and my team as well. But it's been really worth it," Soriot joked to Trump.  ASTRAZENECA CEO MET TRUMP AT ROYAL BANQUET The agreement will likely bolster the 66-year-old French-born Australian's reputation as something of a Trump whisperer, even as many CEOs globally grapple with the president's whipsaw tariff changes. Trump argues Americans pay far too much – often three times more, studies show – for prescription medicines than in other wealthy nations and set a September 29 deadline for drugmakers to cut prices, using threats of tariffs up to 100% as leverage.  Soriot's charm offensive started the week after Trump won the U.S. election. On November 12, AstraZeneca announced a $3.5 billion plan to expand manufacturing and research in the United States. Soriot, who arrived in the U.S. early last week, most recently met Trump at a September 18 royal banquet dinner at Windsor Castle in Britain, the first source said.  Over the summer he met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick at least three times in Britain and the United States, that source added. All three sources asked not to be named as the talks were confidential. Soriot also developed a close relationship with vocal Trump ally and Republican high-flier, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, all three sources said. That led to a rapidly-assembled deal for a $4.5 billion plant in the state, which took just over a month to go from initial talks to an agreement. On Thursday, a day before the Oval Office signing, Soriot and Youngkin stood shoulder-to-shoulder, shovels in hand, to break ground at the site. "Youngkin has a lot of ambition and his connections with the administration were clearly helpful," a second source said. "The Virginia facility deal showed the two sides were on the same page." ASTRAZENECA: A 'VERY AMERICAN COMPANY' Following the agreement and a deal a week earlier by U.S. peer Pfizer that boosted global healthcare stocks, Wall Street now expects more companies to reach similar agreements with the Trump administration in the coming weeks.  Shore Capital analyst Sean Conroy said that Soriot, who publicly backed Trump on drug pricing and called AstraZeneca a "very American company", secured a seat at the table in Washington with smart strategic announcements.  "That rhetoric has clearly resonated with the Trump administration and its agenda around Most Favored Nation drug pricing," Conroy said, referring to the lowest price paid in other wealthy countries after fees and rebates. SOME CONCESSIONS, BUT A WIN FOR ASTRAZENECA Analysts had estimated that AstraZeneca was less exposed to U.S. tariffs than many other major drugmakers, having already established substantial manufacturing capacity in the United States. But tougher regulation and more price pressure in the UK, where many drugmakers have criticised the government for not doing enough to support the sector, gave AstraZeneca a strong business argument for the U.S. deal.  Britain accounts for a small percentage of the company's revenues but is where it is headquartered and primarily listed. AstraZeneca is the largest listed firm on London's FTSE 100 Index. In contrast to Britain, U.S. officials are in the midst of an aggressive push to spur investment from firms like AstraZeneca and put in ample energy and effort to assist them, the first source said. In July, AstraZeneca announced a sprawling $50 billion investment plan for the U.S. market and in late September said it would do a full U.S. listing of its shares alongside its current London listing. By the time Pfizer signed its deal on September 30, AstraZeneca was already nearing its own finalised agreement, the three sources said.  Soriot headed to the U.S. early last week even as the last details were being ironed out. Each day a deal looked close but didn't arrive. The Virginia plant agreement solidified goodwill between the company and the Trump administration, which ultimately helped push the deal over the line, the third source said.  In the end, while AstraZeneca made concessions on some drug prices for Medicaid and pledged to produce more medicines locally, its U.S. arrangement marks a win for the company.  It gives more clarity, analysts say, without significantly denting expected revenues, which AstraZeneca is aggressively forecasting at $80 billion by 2030, with half of that coming from increased sales in the United States.  "Friday's deal is the last piece in the puzzle," the third source added. (Reporting by Maggie Fick; Additional reporting by Sabrina Valle in New York; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Joe Bavier)

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By Rodrigo Campos NEW YORK (Reuters) -Argentina's looming elections are the main risk to bullish market bets as a wave of U.S. financial support for President Javier Milei's libertarian economic policies does not guarantee that voters will back his minority party, investors say. Milei's right-wing politics have endeared him to President Donald Trump's administration, while his spending cuts and focus on inflation have given investors some of the best returns among emerging markets since he took power in December 2023. But recent electoral setbacks for Milei's party, fueled by corruption allegations reaching his inner circle, have hurt the leader's popularity, a key indicator for investors, hammering the peso and government bonds. His La Libertad Avanza party wants to increase its seats in both chambers in the October 26 vote so that he can advance his austerity and free-market overhauls of South America's second-largest economy, which has a history of defaults and other financial crises. FEARS THAT U.S. LIFELINE WILL END Argentine assets rallied on Thursday, ahead of a Friday market holiday, after the U.S. Treasury bought an undisclosed amount of pesos on the open market and completed a $20 billion swap framework with Argentina's central bank. On Friday, international bonds gave back a fraction of Thursday's gains, as did stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. With the U.S. lifeline easing some of the market pressure, the focus on the midterm election intensifies. "The markets are hoping Milei does well. The issue now becomes, if he does not do well, how much support continues to be given from the U.S.?" said Jason DeVito, senior portfolio manager for emerging market debt at Federated Hermes. "If it is not perceived that the actions from the United States are enhancing Milei's party or the coalition's ability to do well in the midterms, there's probably a fear that this type of support doesn't continue." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered no timeline for future interventions and his department did not respond to requests for comment on the specifics of the swap or how long the peso purchases would continue. More details of the U.S. lifeline are expected after Milei meets Trump at the White House on Tuesday. ELECTION KEY TO MILEI AGENDA Polling has shifted in recent weeks in Argentina, with corruption overtaking inflation as voters’ top concern. Opposition Peronists hope to build on their unexpectedly wide victory in Buenos Aires provincial elections last month, which unnerved markets. Keeping a lid on market uncertainty is positive for a government that had lost control of the narrative amid scandals – from Milei touting a cryptocurrency that soon crashed to a bribery probe. Milei has not commented on that incident and has not been accused of impropriety. The U.S. support is an opportunity to regain that control, said Juan Germano, founder of pollster Isonomia in Buenos Aires. The Argentine electorate is split on its views of the U.S. backstop, "but for the part that Milei wants to convince to vote, and was largely absent in the Buenos Aires vote last month, it is positive." A bill passed last week by the lower house to curb the power of presidential decrees makes the midterms even more important for Milei's economic overhaul to continue. "There is a question, if the U.S. Treasury actually has the ability to stabilize markets, whether this will sway voters in the midterm," said Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former chief economist at the State Department, adding there should be bipartisan U.S. support for seeing Argentina succeed. "It could cut both ways, because if Milei does poorly on the 26th he will not be able to push as radical a reform package as he has been able to do for the first two years, and markets will put pressure on whatever safety net the Treasury Department has put in place." (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos in New York; Additional reporting by David Lawder, Nupur Anand and Tatiana Bautzer; Editing by William Mallard)

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By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors hoped potential talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China could ease trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and oil consumers. Brent crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.47%, to $63.65 a barrel by 0622 GMT after settling down 3.82% on Friday at the lowest since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.79 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.51%, following a 4.24% loss on Friday to its lowest since May 7. WTI prices will settle on Tuesday as Monday is a public holiday in parts of the U.S. "Last week's price meltdown was largely on the back of ceasefire in Gaza and return of U.S.-China trade volatility ahead of the 10-Nov trade truce deadline," DBS energy analyst Suvro Sarkar said. The selloff in markets now looks to be capped by both parties' willingness to negotiate, he said, adding the near-term outlook hinged on the eventual outcome of the trade talks. U.S.-China trade tensions flared up last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he would impose 100% tariffs on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on "any and all critical software" by November 1. But on Sunday he said on Truth Social: "Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!" The moves come ahead of a potential meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea, which U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said could still happen later this month. "The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further – and possibly indefinite – extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. However, there is still the risk of trade tensions escalating that may lead to higher tariffs or more serious export restrictions, at least temporarily, they added. Oil prices tumbled in March and April during the height of trade tensions between the two countries. China's crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed, as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates so far this year and as stockpiling efforts continued. In the Middle East, Palestinian militant group Hamas released the first seven surviving Israeli hostages on Monday, an official involved in the operation said, the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement that Trump helped to broker aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza. (Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Sonali Paul and Jamie Freed)

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