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By David Lawder WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Finance chiefs gathering in Washington this week were ready to discuss the global economy's surprising resilience in the face of Donald Trump's tariff assaults – until the U.S.-China trade war erupted again with the U.S. president threatening 100% duties on Chinese imports and sending markets into a tailspin. The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are now certain to be dominated by questions over whether Trump's vow to retaliate against China's dramatically expanded export controls on rare earths will plunge the world's two largest economies back into a full-blown trade war. A delicate truce crafted by Washington and Beijing over the past five months brought tariffs down from triple-digit levels and prompted upgrades to the IMF's global growth outlook. Plans for Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month fueled hopes for a further thaw.  But that optimism was shattered on Friday as Trump threatened to cancel the meeting and impose a "massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese goods, along with other countermeasures. Souring the mood further was China's move on Friday to match new U.S. port fees for Chinese-built or owned vessels with its own levies on port calls by ships built or flagged in the U.S. or owned by companies more than 25% owned by U.S.-domiciled investment funds. The IMF and World Bank meetings will bring more than 10,000 people to Washington, including finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 190 countries. Martin Muehleisen, a former IMF strategy chief who is now with the Atlantic Council, said Trump's threats may be posturing for negotiating leverage, but said they will inject volatility into the week's proceedings. "Let's hope that sanity prevails. If Trump goes back to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, there's going to be a lot of pain in the markets for him," Muehleisen said. Trump's threat on Friday triggered the biggest U.S. stock sell-off in months at a time when investors and top policymakers were already growing anxious about a frothy stock market fueled by an investment boom in artificial intelligence that some officials fear could hurt future employment. While China has some leverage over Trump due to its global dominance in rare earths, which are essential for tech manufacturing, Muehleisen said it is not in Beijing's interest to plunge back into an environment of triple-digit tariffs. It is unclear whether U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has led U.S.-China trade talks, would meet with any Chinese officials this week in Washington. A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on Bessent's bilateral meetings schedule. GROWTH FORECASTS HOLD UP   Prior to the escalation on Friday's, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had touted the global economy's ability to withstand multiple shocks, from tariff costs and uncertainty to a slowing U.S. job market, rising debt levels and rapid shifts brought on by AI's rapid adoption. In a preview of the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts due on Tuesday, Georgieva said last week that the global GDP growth rate for 2025 would be only slightly less than the 3.3% for 2024. Based on tariff rates that were lower than initially feared – including the U.S.-China duties – the IMF in July raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.0%. "What we are seeing is demonstrable resilience in the world," Georgieva told Reuters in an interview. "But we are also saying it is a time of exceptional uncertainty, and downside risks are still dominating the forecast. So watch it, don't get too comfortable." G7 FOCUS ON RUSSIA  Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial democracies are expected to meet on Wednesday to discuss efforts to step up sanctions pressure on Russia that is aimed at ending Moscow's war against Ukraine. A British government source said that finance minister Rachel Reeves wanted to ensure joint action with G7 and European Union countries to cut Russia's energy revenues and access to overseas assets that comply with international law. Among these options that G7 ministers will discuss is a European Union plan to use Russian frozen sovereign assets to back a loan of 140 billion euros ($162 billion) to Ukraine. BESSENT'S AGENDA FOR INSTITUTIONS The U.S. footprint at the meetings will be large, extending from tariff discussions to Bessent's calls for the IMF and World Bank to pull back from climate and gender issues to focus on their core missions of financial stability and development. The meetings will be the public debut for Dan Katz, the IMF's new No. 2 official. Member countries will be watching to see how Katz, a former investment banker who was Bessent's chief of staff, carries out the U.S. Treasury chief's agenda, which also calls for stronger IMF criticism of China's state-led economic policies. The U.S. Treasury's market intervention on behalf of Argentina, the IMF's largest borrower, also will take center stage at the meetings as Argentina's right-wing libertarian President Javier Milei will join his ally Trump two blocks away at the White House on Tuesday. The move was welcomed by Georgieva to keep Argentina's market-based reforms on track. But Muehleisen, the former IMF official, said the Fund risks being pushed by its largest shareholder to enforce Trump's geopolitical goals – ratcheting up pressure on China and potentially extending more aid to U.S. allies like Argentina without adequate reforms. "Is it really still a global, multilateral organization, or is it becoming a bit more of an appendage of the U.S. Treasury?" he said. "This will be an interesting debate." (Reporting by David Lawder; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Milliken; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By David Lawder WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Finance chiefs gathering in Washington this week were ready to discuss the global economy's surprising resilience in the face of Donald Trump's tariff assaults – until the U.S.-China trade war erupted again with the U.S. president threatening 100% duties on Chinese imports and sending markets into a tailspin. The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are now certain to be dominated by questions over whether Trump's vow to retaliate against China's dramatically expanded export controls on rare earths will plunge the world's two largest economies back into a full-blown trade war. A delicate truce crafted by Washington and Beijing over the past five months brought tariffs down from triple-digit levels and prompted upgrades to the IMF's global growth outlook. Plans for Trump to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month fueled hopes for a further thaw.  But that optimism was shattered on Friday as Trump threatened to cancel the meeting and impose a "massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese goods, along with other countermeasures. Souring the mood further was China's move on Friday to match new U.S. port fees for Chinese-built or owned vessels with its own levies on port calls by ships built or flagged in the U.S. or owned by companies more than 25% owned by U.S.-domiciled investment funds. The IMF and World Bank meetings will bring more than 10,000 people to Washington, including finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 190 countries. Martin Muehleisen, a former IMF strategy chief who is now with the Atlantic Council, said Trump's threats may be posturing for negotiating leverage, but said they will inject volatility into the week's proceedings. "Let's hope that sanity prevails. If Trump goes back to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, there's going to be a lot of pain in the markets for him," Muehleisen said. Trump's threat on Friday triggered the biggest U.S. stock sell-off in months at a time when investors and top policymakers were already growing anxious about a frothy stock market fueled by an investment boom in artificial intelligence that some officials fear could hurt future employment. While China has some leverage over Trump due to its global dominance in rare earths, which are essential for tech manufacturing, Muehleisen said it is not in Beijing's interest to plunge back into an environment of triple-digit tariffs. It is unclear whether U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has led U.S.-China trade talks, would meet with any Chinese officials this week in Washington. A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment on Bessent's bilateral meetings schedule. GROWTH FORECASTS HOLD UP   Prior to the escalation on Friday's, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had touted the global economy's ability to withstand multiple shocks, from tariff costs and uncertainty to a slowing U.S. job market, rising debt levels and rapid shifts brought on by AI's rapid adoption. In a preview of the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts due on Tuesday, Georgieva said last week that the global GDP growth rate for 2025 would be only slightly less than the 3.3% for 2024. Based on tariff rates that were lower than initially feared – including the U.S.-China duties – the IMF in July raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.0%. "What we are seeing is demonstrable resilience in the world," Georgieva told Reuters in an interview. "But we are also saying it is a time of exceptional uncertainty, and downside risks are still dominating the forecast. So watch it, don't get too comfortable." G7 FOCUS ON RUSSIA  Finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrial democracies are expected to meet on Wednesday to discuss efforts to step up sanctions pressure on Russia that is aimed at ending Moscow's war against Ukraine. A British government source said that finance minister Rachel Reeves wanted to ensure joint action with G7 and European Union countries to cut Russia's energy revenues and access to overseas assets that comply with international law. Among these options that G7 ministers will discuss is a European Union plan to use Russian frozen sovereign assets to back a loan of 140 billion euros ($162 billion) to Ukraine. BESSENT'S AGENDA FOR INSTITUTIONS The U.S. footprint at the meetings will be large, extending from tariff discussions to Bessent's calls for the IMF and World Bank to pull back from climate and gender issues to focus on their core missions of financial stability and development. The meetings will be the public debut for Dan Katz, the IMF's new No. 2 official. Member countries will be watching to see how Katz, a former investment banker who was Bessent's chief of staff, carries out the U.S. Treasury chief's agenda, which also calls for stronger IMF criticism of China's state-led economic policies. The U.S. Treasury's market intervention on behalf of Argentina, the IMF's largest borrower, also will take center stage at the meetings as Argentina's right-wing libertarian President Javier Milei will join his ally Trump two blocks away at the White House on Tuesday. The move was welcomed by Georgieva to keep Argentina's market-based reforms on track. But Muehleisen, the former IMF official, said the Fund risks being pushed by its largest shareholder to enforce Trump's geopolitical goals – ratcheting up pressure on China and potentially extending more aid to U.S. allies like Argentina without adequate reforms. "Is it really still a global, multilateral organization, or is it becoming a bit more of an appendage of the U.S. Treasury?" he said. "This will be an interesting debate." (Reporting by David Lawder; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Milliken; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

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By Devika Madhusudhanan Nair and Shubham Kalia (Reuters) -US investment bank Jefferies said on Sunday its exposure to bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands Group is limited and any potential losses would be "readily absorbable," as it sought to reassure investors following a slump in its shares last week. First Brands, which makes filters, brakes and lighting systems for the automotive industry, filed for bankruptcy protection last month after its lenders began investigating irregularities in the company's financial reporting. Last week, Jefferies disclosed that its Leucadia Asset Management fund, through its credit fund Point Bonita, held about $715 million in receivables linked to First Brands. In a letter addressed to clients and shareholders and posted publicly on Sunday, Jefferies CEO Rich Handler and President Brian Friedman said the bank's investments in the U.S. auto parts maker "effectively comprise" $43 million of Point Bonita's accounts receivables from the bankrupt group and a $2 million interest in First Brands' bank loans. "Relative to the scale of Jefferies, we are confident that any losses or expenses from these investments or otherwise in respect of First Brands can readily be absorbed and do not threaten our financial condition or business momentum," Handler and Friedman said. "We believe there has been an impact on our equity market value and credit perception that is meaningfully overdone, and we expect this to correct soon as the facts and range of outcomes are better understood." Jefferies' shares fell more than 18% last week. Reuters reported on Friday that Morgan Stanley's asset management unit had asked Jefferies to return some money it invested in the Point Bonita Capital fund, citing a person familiar with the situation. First Brands has $11.6 billion in total liabilities, while its CEO Patrick James is considering leaving his position. Swiss bank UBS has noted exposure of more than $500 million to the auto parts maker. The U.S. Justice Department has launched a probe into First Brands' dealings with creditors and sent an inquiry to the company, Reuters reported earlier this month. (Reporting by Devika Nair in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Subhranshu Sahu)

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By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session, as investors hoped potential talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China could ease trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and oil consumers. Brent crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.47%, to $63.65 a barrel by 0408 GMT after settling down 3.82% on Friday to the lowest since May 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.79 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.51%, following a 4.24% loss to reach its lowest since May 7. WTI prices will settle on Tuesday as Monday is a public holiday in the U.S. "The rebound in oil markets has likely been caused by profit-taking as traders bet on the so-called 'TACO' trade after Trump and Vice President JD Vance signalled that the newly announced tariffs were more of a negotiation tool, and they were open to making a deal with China," independent analyst Tina Teng said, referring to a trading rule of thumb that "Trump always chickens out". "However, (price) volatilities are expected. I do not expect oil or any other risk assets to reverse the losses so soon," she added. U.S.-China trade tensions flared up last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls and drew a response from U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday to impose 100% tariffs on China's U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on "any and all critical software" by November 1. The moves come ahead of a potential Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea, which U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said could still happen later this month. "The most likely scenario seems to be that both sides pull back on the most aggressive policies and that talks lead to a further – and possibly indefinite – extension of the tariff escalation pause reached in May," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. However, there is still the risk of trade tensions escalating that may lead to higher tariffs or more serious export restrictions, at least temporarily, they added. Oil prices tumbled in March and April during the height of trade tensions between the two countries. China's crude imports in September rose 3.9% from a year earlier to 11.5 million barrels per day, customs data showed, as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates so far this year and as stockpiling efforts continued. In the Middle East, Trump declared on Sunday that the Gaza war has ended as he heads to Israel ahead of the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners as part of the fragile ceasefire he brokered. (Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Sonali Paul)

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BEIJING (Reuters) -China's car sales accelerated in September, the traditional peak season for the auto market, as dealers and consumers took advantage of trade-in subsidies before more local governments suspended the incentives. Domestic car sales rose 6.6% year-on-year to 2.27 million units, following a 4.9% increase in August, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Monday. Sales of electric vehicles and hybrid cars made up 57.2% of total sales and grew 15.5%, compared to 7.5% in August. This time of year, known as "Golden September" in China, is usually peak season as automakers rush to launch new models and consumers return to showrooms after a lull during the stifling summer months. Local government-subsidised trade-ins spurred car sales in the first half but are showing signs of tapering off due to a funding shortage. Eastern Jiangsu province and the southwestern region of Guangxi were among those that announced last month they would suspend local auto replacement subsidy programmes. More cities such as Wenzhou and Hangzhou in China's eastern Zhejiang province joined the suspension this month. The sales growth also came as dealers took on more inventory last month. Data from the China Automobile Dealer Association showed the dealers had a total of 3.04 million units of cars in their inventory by the end of September, up from 2.6 million a month ago. Cui Dongshu, CPCA secretary-general, last week called for financial policies to support the dealers who have been suffering widespread losses from new car sales while automakers kept offloading inventory onto them despite tepid demand. Top player BYD logged the first monthly fall in car sales last month since February 2024, alongside an additional output cut. BYD's sales in its home market accounted for 14% of China's domestic car sales in September, compared to 18% in the same period in 2024. Smaller domestic rivals including Geely, Leapmotor, Xpeng and Xiaomi outperformed BYD with record high sales last month. Tesla, which exported 19,287 China-made EVs in September, saw its sales in China down 0.9% from the year before, extending a losing streak to the third month. China's car export growth picked up to 20.7% from 20.2% in August, CPCA data showed. (Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Tom Hogue and Kate Mayberry)

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By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the U.S. economy growing near trend, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey, though slow job growth, higher unemployment and stickier inflation will mar the outlook. The Trump administration's new import taxes remain a drag on the economy's performance, the survey concluded, with more than 60% of the 40 economists in the poll estimating tariffs would knock up to half a percentage point from economic growth, with both imports and exports falling, and consumer prices rising as a result of the levies. None saw tariffs boosting growth. But the latest version of NABE's quarterly survey, released on Monday as part of the group's annual meeting, upgraded the more pessimistic views about the U.S. outlook offered earlier in the year when concerns about the economic blow from tariffs and the risks of a broader trade war were at their peak. The median projection was for the economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, around most estimates of underlying potential, compared to 1.3% projected in the June survey. Inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was seen ending the year at 3%, down slightly from the 3.1% projected as of June. But it was also seen declining only to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in the June survey, a slower return towards the Fed's 2% target. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was seen rising through next year though less than feared as of June, to 4.5% versus 4.7% in the prior survey. The Fed is seen cutting interest rates, though at a slightly slower pace than anticipated by investors, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year versus the two quarter-point cuts currently priced into contracts tied to the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The survey highlighted one of the ongoing puzzles that Fed officials in particular are trying to understand: GDP growth that has begun surprising to the upside while job growth remains tepid. Economists surveyed by NABE, for example, see job growth averaging just 29,000 per month for the rest of this year, with a "limited, gradual recovery" to around 75,000 next year, lower than the 97,000 forecast as of June. Business investment, driven by the surge of capital towards computing capacity and artificial intelligence, may explain part of the disconnect.  Anticipated investment "improved sharply" the latest survey found, now expected to grow 3.8% this year versus 1.6% as of June, and continue expanding at a 1.7% rate next year versus 0.9% anticipated in June. Housing remains in the doldrums, however, with residential investment now projected to contract 1.6% this year compared to the modest 0.5% growth seen in the June survey, and less than 1% growth seen next year. (Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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(Reuters) -A boom at financial technology firms and growing demand to get to grips with artificial intelligence lifted financial sector job vacancy numbers in London in the third-quarter, Morgan McKinley's London Employment Monitor showed on Monday. Vacancies in the sector rose 9% year-on-year, the recruiter said, although it warned that graduate-level hiring was slowing as more roles are automated. Mark Astbury, director at Morgan McKinley, said a sharp dip in hiring earlier this year caused by uncertainty around potential trade tariffs had been offset by a striking rebound, as employers resumed delayed hiring plans. This year, employers have posted 6,425 fintech roles, already exceeding last year’s total, reflecting the race to commercialise AI platforms, Astbury said. But with the upcoming budget on November 26, many businesses, already hit by the British government's increase in national insurance taxes, are concerned about further tax rises, making them cautious. "In most cases, decisions are being delayed rather than withdrawn," Astbury said. He also noted structural changes that were reshaping the financial sector employment market, with more junior roles going to cities like Belfast and Glasgow and automation reducing administrative roles. London, on the other hand, continues to attract the bulk of senior positions, such as in technology, corporate finance and AI strategy. (Reporting by Phoebe Seers; Editing by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes and Toby Chopra)

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