Inkhabar webdesk

By Lucia Mutikani and Ann Saphir (Reuters) -Alternate data from public and private sources showed the U.S. job market likely remained stalled in September, with sluggish hiring but no change in an unemployment rate economists see as heavily influenced by a decline in the number of foreign-born workers. With the release of numerous official economic indicators delayed by a government shutdown, alternative data, such as a new "real-time" estimate of the unemployment rate issued on Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is likely to attract more than the usual scrutiny. The Chicago Fed report, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun. But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market that is likely to keep Fed officials on track to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the October 28-29 meeting.  Official reports on the U.S. labor market, including September monthly jobs data that had been scheduled for release by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, are for now suspended by the government shutdown that has put around 750,000 workers on furlough and halted many but the most critical federal government functions. Also delayed so far are the weekly jobless claims report, August factory orders and construction spending data. Depending on the length of the shutdown, the 15th since 1981, those and other delayed reports could still be available by the time the Fed meets in a little under four weeks. But policymakers were already discussing at-hand, if imperfect, substitutes for the September jobs report, among the main sources of additional data policymakers would receive before their next meeting. The Fed's rate cut discussion now leans heavily on policymakers' views of whether the labor market is holding up reasonably well, with the 4.3% jobless rate considered around full employment, or is at risk of a sharp rupture. The Fed last month cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% after job gains slowed sharply and the unemployment rate ticked up in August.  "The data dogs are howling because we are not getting our usual supply of information," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told Marketplace Radio on Wednesday. "The best number is the BLS number, but if we don't have that, we're going to use the Chicago Fed number and other numbers."  The Chicago Fed's new data series, updated twice monthly, showed the hiring rate for unemployed workers dipping slightly and the rate of layoffs and other job separations up a bit.  That put "limited upward pressure" on the unemployment rate, the bank said.  LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING New data from technology firm Intuit, using a sample of roughly 400,000 small businesses from its QuickBooks platform, showed firms with from one to nine employees shed more than 48,000 jobs in September, a decline of around 0.37%. Firms of that size have seen a steady drop in employment since early 2024, with average monthly employment for the latest quarter down about 400,000 from a peak of 13.1 million. U.S. employers meanwhile announced fewer layoffs in September, but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, according to the latest report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas that provided further signs of a labor market at a standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of tougher immigration policy and technological advances. The firm said planned job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064 in September. Employers have so far this year announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.  Hiring plans so far this year have totaled 204,939, the lowest year-to-date since 2009 when the economy was just emerging from the Great Recession.  "Right now, we're dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases and a transformative new technology," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring." Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade policy, immigration raids and the rise of artificial intelligence, have combined to reduce demand and labor supply. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year. Challenger said the government accounted for the bulk of planned layoffs, with 299,755 job cuts announced so far this year, part of an unprecedented campaign by the White House to reduce the federal workforce. Trump threatened to fire more federal workers if there was a shutdown. The surge in AI is costing jobs in the technology sector, with companies in the industry announcing 107,878 layoffs so far this year. Challenger said AI was also making it difficult to land positions, particularly for entry-level engineers. Should the shutdown persist into next week, reports due later this month, including consumer price, retail sales, housing starts and producer inflation data for September, will probably not be published, impacting decision making by households, investors and policymakers.   (Reporting by Ann Saphir; Additional reporting by Howard Schneider and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Jamie Freed and Andrea Ricci)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)

By David Morgan, Bo Erickson, Nolan D. McCaskill and Richard Cowan WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday froze $26 billion for Democratic-leaning states, following through on a threat to use the government shutdown to target Democratic priorities. The targeted programs included $18 billion for transit projects in New York, home to Congress's top two Democrats, and $8 billion for green-energy projects in 16 Democratic-run states, including California and Illinois. Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, warned that the administration might extend its purge of federal workers if the shutdown lasts more than a few days.  The moves made clear that Trump would carry out his threat to take advantage of the shutdown to punish his political opponents and extend his control over the $7 trillion federal budget, established by the U.S. Constitution as the domain of Congress.  "Billions of dollars can be saved," he wrote on Truth Social late on Wednesday. The government shutdown, the 15th since 1981, suspended scientific research, financial oversight, environmental cleanup efforts and a wide range of other activities. Some 750,000 federal workers were ordered not to work, while others, such as troops and Border Patrol agents, began to work without pay. The Department of Veterans Affairs said it would provide burials at national cemeteries, but would not erect headstones or mow the grass. Vance said at a White House briefing that the administration would be forced to resort to layoffs if the shutdown lasts more than a few days, adding to the 300,000 who will be pushed out by December. Previous shutdowns have not resulted in permanent layoffs. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office said it would lay off 1% of its 14,000 employees, according to an internal letter seen by Reuters. SCHUMER ALLEGES SHUTDOWN 'BLACKMAIL' Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, said the funding freeze for subway and harbor projects in his home of New York would throw thousands out of work. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer, also from New York, said Trump was targeting regular Americans for partisan aims. "He is using the American people as pawns, threatening pain on the country as blackmail," Schumer said. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said he was concerned that the freezing of infrastructure funds for New York could make it harder for Congress to exit the shutdown. "They need to be really careful with that, because they can create a toxic environment here," Tillis said. "So hopefully they're working with the leader, and the leader with them, on not creating more work to get us out of this posture." Republican Senate Leader John Thune dismissed concerns that the spending freeze amounted to hostage-taking. "Well, vote to open up the government and that issue goes away, right? I mean, it's pretty straightforward," he said at a press conference. Jeffries said he had not had any contact with the White House since a meeting with Trump earlier in the week. "We haven't heard from the White House since the White House meeting on Monday," he said in an CNN interview. "Clearly, they wanted to shut the government down." DIFFERENT DAY, DIFFERENT VOTE, SAME RESULTS Meanwhile, the Senate again rejected efforts to keep the government functioning as both a Republican proposal that would fund the government through November 21 and a Democratic vote that would pair funding with additional health benefits failed in floor votes. Trump's Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, but they need the support of at least seven of Schumer's Democrats to meet the chamber's 60-vote threshold for spending bills. At issue on the government funding front is $1.7 trillion for agency operations, which amounts to roughly one-quarter of annual spending. Much of the remainder goes to health and retirement programs and interest payments on the growing $37.5 trillion debt. A bipartisan group of senators huddled on the floor during the vote, trying to find a path forward. "I want to see that a deal is a deal, and I would like to see the Republicans make a commitment to work with us on health care," said Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat who represents many federal workers near the nation's capital. "But I've never said that has to be all I's dotted and T's crossed because that could be complicated." Democrats are also seeking guarantees that Trump will not be able to ignore spending bills he signs into law, as he has repeatedly done since returning to office. Both sides sought to pin the blame on the other, looking for advantage ahead of the 2026 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. Democrats said Republicans were responsible for the disruption, as they control the levers of power in Washington. Republicans said Democrats were surrendering to partisan pressures to oppose Trump, even though they have routinely backed spending bills in the past. They also repeated a false claim that the Democratic proposal would extend health coverage to people who are in the country illegally. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Democratic plan would only restore coverage to certain categories of immigrants who are in the country legally, such as asylum seekers and people on work visas. Several government agencies posted notices on their websites blaming the "radical left" for the shutdown – a possible violation of a law known as the Hatch Act meant to insulate nuts-and-bolts government services from partisan politics.  The longest U.S. government shutdown, which stretched over 35 days in 2018-2019 during Trump's first term, ended in part after flight delays caused by air traffic controllers calling in sick. (Reporting by Courtney Rozen, Richard Cowan, Nolan D. McCaskill, Bo Erickson and David Morgan; Additional reporting by Mike Stone, Doina Chacu, Jasper Ward, Costas Pitas, Katharine Jackson and Bhargav Acharya; Writing by Andy Sullivan and James Oliphant; Editing by Scott Malone, Lincoln Feast, Alistair Bell, Daniel Wallis and Richard Chang)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)