China's economy slows as trade war, weak demand highlight structural risks

By Kevin Yao and Ellen Zhang BEIJING (Reuters) -China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter as fragile domestic demand left it heavily reliant on the humming of its exporting factories, stoking concerns about deepening structural imbalances. While the 4.8% growth rate met expectations and kept China on track to reach its target of roughly 5% this year, the economy's dependence on external demand at a time of mounting trade tensions with Washington raises questions over whether that pace can be sustained. Beijing may be using the headline resilience in growth as a show of strength in talks between its vice premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia in coming days and a potential meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea later. Still, that export strength belies weakness on home turf, where lacklustre demand gives manufacturers no choice but to fight price wars in foreign markets, and compromise on their profitability. Jeremy Fang, a sales officer at a Chinese aluminium products maker, says his firm lost 20% of revenue as higher sales in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, Turkey and the Middle East failed to fully offset an 80%-90% order plunge in the U.S.    Fang said he is learning Spanish to get ahead of his Chinese competitors rushing to non-U.S. markets and is now travelling abroad twice more often than he did last year.    But that extra effort isn’t enough.    "You have to be ruthlessly competitive on price," Fang said. "If your price is $100 and the customer starts bargaining, it's better to drop $10-$20 and take the order. You can't hesitate." This intense competition among Chinese exporters feeds further weakness at home, with many having to cut wages and even jobs to stay in the race. While industrial output grew to a three-month high of 6.5% year-on-year in September, beating forecasts, retail sales slowed to a 10-month low of 3.0%. Further hitting consumers by making them feel less wealthy, data also showed new home prices falling at their fastest pace in 11 months in September. Investment in the crisis-hit property sector fell 13.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters. "China’s growth is becoming increasingly dependent on exports, which are offsetting a slowdown in domestic demand," said Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard. "This pattern of development is not sustainable, and so growth is at risk of slowing further over the medium-term unless the authorities take much more proactive steps to support consumer spending." CHINA'S FIVE-YEAR PLAN IN FOCUS Such calls for structural measures that make China's economy more reliant on household consumption have grown louder ahead of this week's key Communist Party meeting, where its elites will discuss the country's next five-year development plan. But while the meeting is likely to result in pledges to boost domestic demand, it will also emphasise breaking through technological frontiers and upgrading the country's sprawling industrial complex as a national security priority. This could keep the flow of economic resources tilted primarily towards manufacturers at the expense of households. A change in its growth model would make China a bigger contributor to global demand and might help tone down trade tensions. But there is no sign that Beijing is willing to relent on the industrial front as competition with the U.S. intensifies. So far, it has been successful in diversifying away from U.S. markets. Its U.S. export sales were down 27% year-on-year last month, but shipments to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6% and 56.4%, respectively. And China is using its near-monopoly position in the production of rare earths as leverage to try to extract more concessions from Washington. This prompted renewed threats from Trump to add another 100 percentage points to tariffs on imports from China, but also messages from Washington that the two sides are willing to lower the temperature. Triple-digit tariffs would effectively place a painful trade embargo on the world's two largest economies, but Beijing might feel it can bear the pain for longer. "Relatively speaking, China is in a better position than the U.S.," said Yuan Yuwei, hedge fund manager at Water Wisdom Asset Management. "At worst, ordinary people may tighten their belts and some workers are left idle. But in the U.S., if you cut 10-20% of worker's salary, people go out into the street to protest. China can suffer for longer than the U.S." MORE STIMULUS? Overall, the economy grew 5.2% year-on-year in January-September. If policymakers feel the economy is veering off target in the fourth quarter, one option is to speed up infrastructure investment given that they are currently frontloading 2026 debt issuance. After all, fixed-asset investment shrank 0.5% in January-September from a year earlier, suggesting room for improvement in that area. Some analysts believe Beijing doesn't need more stimulus measures this year. But others still see a strong case to offer support to underperforming sectors. "With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency," said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING. "But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed." (Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao in Beijing; Additional reporting by Samuel Shen in Shanghai; writing by Kevin Yao and Marius ZahariaEditing by Shri Navaratnam)

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